General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

robman60

Bishop of hope wrote: »

FG just 1 point ahead of SF, There'll be a few posters tearing their hair out, if they have any!

Remember the ST polls don't take account of likelihood to vote, so consistently overestimate the SF vote as they tend not to get the vote out. SF won't break 15% FP on the day. Poll confirms a nailed on win for FF but I'd say it'll narrow to 5 points or less between them and FG by election day. Labour in the absolute wilderness and I can see why. The urban trendy vote is far more primed for the greens or soc dems I think.

Strazdas

sid waddell wrote: »

Quite possibly, certainly up into the 60s on that figure. Should be enough for a minimum of 2 seats in most non-Dublin constituencies anyway and enough for at least one in every Dublin constituency. It would mean they're in the hunt big time in Dublin Central and Dublin Rathdown, and could pick up a second in Dublin South West/Dublin Bay North/Dun Laoighaire.

Transfers might dampen down their seat numbers a bit as I don't see them being especially transfer friendly.

Fine Gael are staring at the abyss on these figures.

FF were down to 20 seats in 2011 on 17.4% first preference vote and while FG are unlikely to be as low in vote share or quite as transfer toxic as that, a 2002 re-run has to be a possibility now.

You're making a lot of assumptions there. It's very likely that FG will go back up in the next poll and FF will come down from the 32% figure.

FF have had an 'okay' week but nothing to indicate they're miles in front.

touts

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Sunday Times Poll
Fine Gael has plummeted to its lowest ever rating in The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes polling series, falling seven points in a month to 20%, while Fianna Fail is up five to 32% at the outset of the election.

Jesus. If that's correct FG is looking at a wipeout. Harris, Murphy etc must be in danger of losing their seats never mind their cabinet places. Would like to see a second poll in line with this before saying it is done. Remember in the UK all the polls had Labour closing on the conservatives and then they were wiped out.

But that said I'd say FG can't wait to see another poll. My bet is Leo will be benched and Pascal and Simon will be put to the fore. Wouldn't be surprised to see Leo posters disappear from poles.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1218696691919908864

markodaly

Kh1993 wrote: »

Can’t see the polling from the last week being much better for FG. Constant gaffes, a leader who doesn’t seem to get on too much with the public. While the gap could close, it would take a catastrophic FF meltdown to lose 12 points.

Red C poll being taken this week to be released next Sunday.

The Red C poll will be a better indicator I think.
FF dont need to lose 12 points, or FG gain 12 points. All it takes is a 5-6 point swing either way for it to be a to a toss-up.

markodaly

robman60 wrote: »

Remember the ST polls don't take account of likelihood to vote, so consistently overestimate the SF vote as they tend not to get the vote out. SF won't break 15% FP on the day. Poll confirms a nailed on win for FF but I'd say it'll narrow to 5 points or less between them and FG by election day. Labour in the absolute wilderness and I can see why. The urban trendy vote is far more primed for the greens or soc dems I think.

Yes, Labour are down and out it appears.
Greens are going to do well, especially in Dublin, which also hurts FG.

sid waddell

touts wrote: »

Two FF in Tipperary?? Not a hope! Kelly (Lab) will hold his seat fairly comfortably. The three independents are also looking safe. So that leaves only one seat for FF. And even there Cahill is in a real scrap with FG to hold his seat and his two running mates are just gender quota candidates with no chance of making it beyond count 4 let alone taking a second seat.

In each election, when predicting, you have to work out where the line lies between the personal vote TDs have and the national swing.

If FF really are on 49% in Munster, that's two seats for FF in Tipperary for sure. I mean FF used to regularly take two seats in Tipp North alone.

Kelly only held on by the skin of his teeth last time.

Right-leaning rural independents like Lowry and McGrath (and the Healy Raes, Grealish, Michael Collins etc.) tend to have the stickiest vote of all so Lowry and McGrath will romp in.

Kelly is representing the Labour party and while he does have a personal vote, he's no longer a minister and Labour have become less relevant since 2016, they've almost faded into irrelevance, people have forgotten about them.

He only needs to lose a few hundred first preferences to lose his seat, he may not even need to lose any votes to lose out.

It could come down to him v Healy for the last seat and my bet is that Healy's vote might be stickier than Kelly's and he'll get a good number of transfers from SF.

Kh1993

markodaly wrote: »

The Red C poll will be a better indicator I think.
FF dont need to lose 12 points, or FG gain 12 points. All it takes is a 5-6 point swing either way for it to be a to a toss-up.

Red C the next two weekends. Ipsos during the week in the IT. Interesting to spot any trends.

Strazdas

touts wrote: »

Jesus. If that's correct FG is looking at a wipeout. Harris, Murphy etc must be in danger of losing their seats never mind their cabinet places. Would like to see a second poll in line with this before saying it is done. Remember in the UK all the polls had Labour closing on the conservatives and then they were wiped out.

But that said I'd say FG can't wait to see another poll. My bet is Leo will be benched and Pascal and Simon will be put to the fore. Wouldn't be surprised to see Leo posters disappear from poles.

The FF govt in 2011 were far more unpopular than this FG one, so I'm not sure the poll can be trusted.

You may well be right about Varadkar though.

McMurphy

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

L1011

Useless polling agency but the headline figure is hilarious for FG - implies a worse than Noonan result.

SafeSurfer

The opposition should start using the slogan “Leo the Liability”. That is exactly what he is. Even ardent FG supporters don’t seem to like him.

Can FG turn it around? Their only route out of the mire seems to be to throw as much mud at FF as they possibly can. This election campaign could prove to be the most nasty and negative we have seen in many years.

On the constituency election prediction, I can’t see Joe Mc Hugh, minister for education lose his seat in Donegal.

markodaly

Kh1993 wrote: »

Red C the next two weekends. Ipsos during the week in the IT. Interesting to spot any trends.

During the 2016 election, polls consistently overestimated the FG vote and underestimated the FF vote. It was like the shy Tory effect, people may have been reluctant to state that they were going to vote for FF as the memory of the crash was still alive.

10 years on, maybe this is gone now and all is forgiven? Perhaps the shy vote has gone to FG, with neverending talk about 'crisis' but people will think of their pockets and give them a vote come polling day. Time will tell.

SafeSurfer

markodaly wrote: »

During the 2016 election, polls consistently overestimated the FG vote and underestimated the FF vote. It was like the shy Tory effect, people may have been reluctant to state that they were going to vote for FF as the memory of the crash was still alive.

10 years on, maybe this is gone now and all is forgiven? Perhaps the shy vote has gone to FG, with neverending talk about 'crisis' but people will think of their pockets and give them a vote come polling day. Time will tell.

Maybe people will think of their pockets and the BS pledge to abolish USC and vote ABFG.

markodaly

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The opposition should start using the slogan “Leo the Liability”. That is exactly what he is. Even ardent FG supporters don’t seem to like him.

Can FG turn it around? Their only route out of the mire seems to be to throw as much mud at FF as they possibly can. This election campaign could prove to be the most nasty and negative we have seen in many years.

On the constituency election prediction, I can’t see Joe Mc Hugh, minister for education lose his seat in Donegal.

Its better to have this polling result come out at the start of the election, rather than at the end, for sure.

As the poll suggests, its FF to lose now. So the spotlight will be on them for the next few weeks. As mentioned, they have done feck all really so far this week and at the moment have no policies to speak off.
They would have preferred to sneak into power, but now they will have to defend their confidence and supply agreement, their record when last in government and their manifesto, over the next 3 weeks.

markodaly

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Maybe people will think of their pockets and the BS pledge to abolish USC and vote ABFG.

Possibly. Afaik FF are going to keep the USC as well, so...

sid waddell

markodaly wrote: »

This will focus the minds of the electorate.
FG will not be as low as 20% come polling day, we all know that. They will be close to what they got last time out.

FF now in the spotlight from all other parties and the media. They had a week where they did nothing bad but did nothing good either, drawing their manifesto out piecemeal is a mistake I think. Is it their strategy to say as little as much as possible and sneak into power? Well, expect people to be gunning for them now.

If people want 'radical' reform of housing, health and justice then are voting for FF going to deliver that? Are people going to be that naive?

I still think FF at the end will outdo FG in the numbers game, but they will be lucky to break 60 seats imo. FG will return kinda the same as last time out I think.
In other words, another minority government will be on the cards, or FF and SF and others can form a government. That could suit FG no ends in the long run.

Do we?

The combined FG/FF first preference vote was under 50% (49.8%) in 2016 for the first time ever, down from 53% in 2011.

FG went from 36% in 2011 to 25% in 2016, and 50 seats was not a terrible performance for them by modern standards.

A further 5% fall on that is well possible.

The general trend over the last few decades is that the combined FF/FG vote is falling.

It's possible, I would say likely, that it could go back up a few points this time, but what's the max it could go back up to? 55% maybe?

At a guess, I'd say FG will probably increase a small bit on these figures, but not by much, and it is far from impossible for them to poll 20% on the day.

Billcarson

FF well ahead of FG in the poll. Hardly surprising is it? It's just part of the ff/ fg cycle. When people get pissed with fg they vote ff and Visa versa. Yawn..........

markodaly

sid waddell wrote: »

Do we?

The combined FG/FF first preference vote was under 50% (49.8%) in 2016 for the first time ever, down from 53% in 2011.

FG went from 36% in 2011 to 25% in 2016, and 50 seats was not a terrible performance for them by modern standards.

A further 5% fall on that is well possible.

The general trend over the last few decades is that the combined FF/FG vote is falling.

It's possible, I would say likely, that it could go back up a few points this time, but what's the max it could go back up to? 55% maybe?

At a guess, I'd say FG will probably increase a small bit on these figures, but not by much, and it is far from impossible for them to poll 20% on the day.

I hear you, but a number of things here.
This is one poll and the only poll to have FG this low. You even guessed yourself that they will be higher come election day.

Also, the poll itself was taken right after New Year's day, when there was a lot of bad publicity about health, homelessness and the RIC issue. It was also a small sample number.

This poll – published by the Sunday Times – was conducted with 923 face-to-face interviews between 2-14 January. The election was called by Varadkar on 14 January. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

The combined vote thing is interesting, but saying all that, either FF or FG will be in government again, most likely FF and will remain as such for the foreseeable future. The growth of SF looks to be halted and there is no other party in the wings ready to take over from the big two.

In summary, we will probably see the next red C poll tell us the real story.
Sure, FF are likely to be top-dog but not on these numbers.

Dank Janniels

The election is a week after Brexit Day, maybe FG could swing the "stability/ economy bag" at us to steady the boat so to speak*

*as in their utter demise!

Fann Linn

Dank Janniels wrote: »

The election is a week after Brexit Day, maybe FG could swing the "stability/ economy bag" at us to steady the boat so to speak*

*as in their utter demise!

Brexit is sorted. The Brits are moving on. ,
Housing, health, insurance are some of the issues now.
And for those three issues FG have given us Murphy, Harris and Bailey.

bren2001

sid waddell wrote: »

Deirdre Heney is running along with Sean Haughey.

With Finian McGrath not running, two seats has to be a possibility for them on those figures.

The Munster figures are ridiculous, 49%?

They're looking at two seats in Limerick City, Limerick County, Kerry, Tipperary, Waterford, Cork North Central, maybe Cork South West, and a guaranteed two and maybe even three seats in Clare on those figures, all pick ups.

That's a possible nine seat gain in Munster alone.

I forgot Deirdre was running all right. She's there for quota reasons and nothing else, in my opinion. I don't think she has the name recognition to get enough transfers. She needs to move from 3.5k -> 10k votes which is a huge ask. I think they need to parachute in someone with a relatively big name to have a chance of two seats. Otherwise, I can't see how they'll get the ~20k votes required

VinLieger

McMurphy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

Renua +1? Who tf is still even in that party to vote for?

ThunbergsAreGo

boardise wrote: »

Does anyone have the percentage for 'Don't knows' ?

Or an abstain?

ThunbergsAreGo

markodaly wrote: »

Possibly. Afaik FF are going to keep the USC as well, so...

....and have more or less said there will be nothing for the squeezed middle

NIMAN

Billcarson wrote: »

FF well ahead of FG in the poll. Hardly surprising is it? It's just part of the ff/ fg cycle. When people get pissed with fg they vote ff and Visa versa. Yawn..........

Not sure this is as prevalent as you might think.

I have in-laws and friends who are FF through and through.
They would never consider voting for FG, ever.

is_that_so

L1011 wrote: »

Useless polling agency but the headline figure is hilarious for FG - implies a worse than Noonan result.

Lots of health warning about them and the poll.
Their support level for SF is way above the average and has been consistently out of sync with other polls. Most other polls see SF on 15% at most and that is the long-term trend.
They were outside the MOE for the last GE for FF and just about on it for FG.
They use the smallest sample, under 1000.
Don't knows have been in the 22%-28% in their polls over the last year. December was 28% so January would probably have been similar enough.

It is tabloid fodder for now and a bit of faux excitement for journalists to badger parties with. You would expect other polls will show it to be tighter but FF may indeed have the edge.

EDIT: FF on 49% in Munster according to Gavin Reilly on Twitter! Not sure how they worked that out.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

is_that_so

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Also, seems to be considered easier for FF to tack to the left for coalition partners.

Are you saying they sleep around? :P

average_runner

If people didn't vote at all, it might send a bigger message

is_that_so

VinLieger wrote: »

Renua +1? Who tf is still even in that party to vote for?

FF on 49% in Munster!:eek: Even SF would never claim such numbers.

Wanderer78

is_that_so wrote:

Are you saying they sleep around?

I'd say they re a more lgbt+ party to be fair

NIMAN

So FG and SF are neck and neck?

is_that_so

NIMAN wrote: »

So FG and SF are neck and neck?

Probably but definitely more likely to be a lot closer than this. This one was called before Leo polled the GE, about the time of the RIC thing.

An Ciarraioch

is_that_so wrote: »

Probably but definitely more likely to be a lot closer than this. This one was called before Leo polled the GE, about the time of the RIC thing.

Also, the B&A SF figures tend to be inflated compared to Red C and Ipsos-MORI.

golfball37

Varadkar does not deserve another term for his handling of insurance fraud within his own party. The thoughts of Martin being Taoiseach however makes me ill. A horrible vista

is_that_so

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Also, the B&A SF figures tend to be inflated compared to Red C and Ipsos-MORI.

Yeah, by quite a bit. They've often had them in the twenties. Have more confidence in both of those. Lots of oddities about this, not least the time it was run but I guess they have a contract couldn't have known. After all a poll is a snapshot of the mood.

blanch152

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Maybe people will think of their pockets and the BS pledge to abolish USC and vote ABFG.

The poll shows that people aren’t voting ABFG, they are voting FF and to a lesser extent, Greens.

SF have never got above 20% in a poll and look like they never will, while always performing worse in an election than a poll, Soc Dems are an irrelevance, independent Alliance have collapsed, I4C in Europe, Labour in the doldrums while who knows which party Paul Murphy is in now.

Given the open goals that FG have handed them, I am amazed at how poorly they have performed.

LuasSimon

Charlie Flanagan MP for Laois has to take a lot of credit for Fine Gaels nosedive in the poll with his march for the Black and Tans and his hatred of nationalists.

LuasSimon

When we’re Fine Gael last as low as 20% in the poll . Must be very low in some regions . South Dublin is bound to still have a high FG voting preference considering all the wealth there and you would have most elderly farmers blindly voting FG but there vote amongst young people in many areas must be fair low .
For many young people Fine Gael are the party of the rich and many are so rich they have no comprehension of the issues so many face to survive on a daily basis all over the country .

retalivity

LuasSimon wrote: »

Charlie Flanagan MP for Laois has to take a lot of credit for Fine Gaels nosedive in the poll with his march for the Black and Tans and his hatred of nationalists.

Youve mispelled "Queen's County", as Mr. Tanagan would say

seligehgit

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Sunday Times Poll
Fine Gael has plummeted to its lowest ever rating in The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes polling series, falling seven points in a month to 20%, while Fianna Fail is up five to 32% at the outset of the election.

Sample size less than 1,000 and a decent margin of error 3.3%.

Could be 6.6% swing.

That 10% independents and others figure gives no breakdown to assist in indicating the number of undecided voters.

McMurphy

seligehgit wrote: »

Sample size less than 1,000 and a decent margin of error 3.3%.

Could be 6.6% swing.

That 10% independents and others figure gives no breakdown to assist in indicating the number of undecided voters.

Have a look at when the poll was conducted. Could be a swing alright, things may well get worse.

FrancieBrady

is_that_so wrote: »

Lots of health warning about them and the poll.
Their support level for SF is way above the average and has been consistently out of sync with other polls. Most other polls see SF on 15% at most and that is the long-term trend.
They were outside the MOE for the last GE for FF and just about on it for FG.
They use the smallest sample, under 1000.
Don't knows have been in the 22%-28% in their polls over the last year. December was 28% so January would probably have been similar enough.

It is tabloid fodder for now and a bit of faux excitement for journalists to badger parties with. You would expect other polls will show it to be tighter but FF may indeed have the edge.

EDIT: FF on 49% in Munster according to Gavin Reilly on Twitter! Not sure how they worked that out.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

???

Their last poll in 2016 was

FG 30 Lab 4 FF 22 SF 15

the parties finished

FG 25.5 Lab 6.6 FF 24.3 SF 13.8

Not hard to see which party support they got most wrong.

RedC's Final poll was:

FG 30 Lab 7 FF 20 SF 15

hotmail.com

Peter Casey to run in Dublin West?

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

???

Their last poll in 2016 was

FG 30 Lab 4 FF 22 SF 15

the parties finished

FG 25.5 Lab 6.6 FF 24.3 SF 13.8

Not hard to see which party support they got most wrong.

RedC's Final poll was:

FG 30 Lab 7 FF 20 SF 15

So everyone got it wrong. I'm referring to their ongoing polls. All of out sync and as others have said SF have never been anywhere near 20%. I find other polls consistently more believable.

hotmail.com

No doubt that this opinion poll is flawed with a smaller sample size and they over estimate the SF vote.

Nevertheless it is reflecting a general trend away from FG to FF.

FF were the largest party in the Local Elections last year after all. It seems now that it's almost unstoppable now - FF will be the largest party in the Dail after this election and Michael Martin will be Taoiseach.

blanch152

McMurphy wrote: »

Have a look at when the poll was conducted. Could be a swing alright, things may well get worse.

It is really the last pre-election poll, rather than the first poll of the election campaign, given when it was taken.

FG are heading out of government, that is the nature of modern politics. The fact that only two parties - FF and the Greens - are picking up votes must be a worry for the others.

FrancieBrady

hotmail.com wrote: »

Peter Casey to run in Dublin West?

He'll get a lot of encouragement from this poll. He's in it for the publicity/ego so he probably will.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He'll get a lot of encouragement from this poll. He's in it for the publicity/ego so he probably will.

Wouldn’t have a chance

hotmail.com

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He'll get a lot of encouragement from this poll. He's in it for the publicity/ego so he probably will.

Well Leo is a dead cert in Dublin 15. I'm not sure how Casey will affect the constituency if at all.