General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Wouldn’t have a chance

Of getting himself some publicity? Course he will, there are plenty who cheer his every utterance since he had a pop at travellers.

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of getting himself some publicity? Course he will, there are plenty who cheer his every utterance since he had a pop at travellers.

And then what? He'll be of retirement age the next time any election comes along.

FrancieBrady

is_that_so wrote: »

And then what? He'll be of retirement age the next time any election comes along.

He might retire and stop embarrassing himself and us?

Kermit.de.frog

The Brits will be claiming we punished Varadkar for being against Brexit.

McMurphy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Brits will be claiming we punished Varadkar for being against Brexit.

Oh please.

Turbohymac

Another election..total waste of taxpayers money..the whole system needs reform..pointless at present whichever party wins..for me I've heard all the same promises 45 years ago and still people actually listen to their empty promises..I'd happily go as far as saying our health system was even better back then..

VinLieger

FF also promising to put retirement age back to 65, no wonder they are flying ahead, turkeys voting for christmas

NIMAN

VinLieger wrote: »

FF also promising to put retirement age back to 65, no wonder they are flying ahead, turkeys voting for christmas

Promise things you can't ever deliver, I suppose thats what all political parties do.

So SF and FF are going to end homelessness, fix the HSE, solve the drug issue, allow us all to retire at 65......

They must have planted an awful lot of magic money trees.

Kermit.de.frog

Most FF thing you will see today...

NIMAN

Greta would love him!

fergiesfolly

Leo got a lot of favourable media coverage while the Brexit debacle roled on.
The other issues which would normally fill our TV screens and newspapers were brushed aside.
These issues will now be front and centre and there's no hiding place for Leo and his misfiring ministers. The only only light in the tunnel for FG at the moment is Coveney. A much more assured, stable and plausible leader than Varadker.
I'd feel more confident voting for FG with Coveney as leader.

LuasSimon

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of getting himself some publicity? Course he will, there are plenty who cheer his every utterance since he had a pop at travellers.

Anyone who has been robbed by travellers or suffered intimidation , violence etc from same will vote Peter Casey . It’s not his fault there’s so many people who have suffered at the hands of travellers and for now he’s about the only one who’s calling out a major issue for so many people . If you live in South Dublin( Donnybrook - Rathgar - Dalkey ) it’s not a problem but nearly everywhere else it has a huge impact in many peoples lives .

is_that_so

Turbohymac wrote: »

Another election..total waste of taxpayers money..the whole system needs reform..pointless at present whichever party wins..for me I've heard all the same promises 45 years ago and still people actually listen to their empty promises..I'd happily go as far as saying our health system was even better back then..

Of course it was. A population of about 3.2 million, most of them young and almost a hospital on every corner and a life expectancy of 71.

sid waddell

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Leo got a lot of favourable media coverage while the Brexit debacle roled on.
The other issues which would normally fill our TV screens and newspapers were brushed aside.
These issues will now be front and centre and there's no hiding place for Leo and his misfiring ministers. The only only light in the tunnel for FG at the moment is Coveney. A much more assured, stable and plausible leader than Varadker.
I'd feel more confident voting for FG with Coveney as leader.

I don't really get people's outright hatred for Varadkar, although there is plenty that annoys me about him. But I'm actually reasonably satisfied with him as a representative of Ireland on the international stage.

I'd never in a million years vote for either FG or FF but to me FG have slightly more able politicians on board than FF.

Micheal Martin has actually been FF's biggest asset for the last eight years. He isn't my problem with them. Outside of Jim O'Callaghan and Stephen Donnelly, I don't see anything there except blowhards, fossils, and people out of their depth. FF's front bench is frightening in its overall lack of ability.

FG certainly have their fair share of gob****es but at least have Coveney, Donohue, Bruton, Harris, Kate O'Connell, Catherine Noone and Neale Richmond who are competent and able politicians. I've always felt that there is slightly more of a public service ethic in FG than in FF, although that isn't saying a whole lot.

antimatterx

sid waddell wrote: »

I don't really get people's outright hatred for Varadkar, although there is plenty that annoys me about him. But I'm actually reasonably satisfied with him as a representative of Ireland on the international stage.

I'd never in a million years vote for either FG or FF but to me FG have slightly more able politicians on board than FF.

Micheal Martin has actually been FF's biggest asset for the last eight years. He isn't my problem with them. Outside of Jim O'Callaghan and Stephen Donnelly, I don't see anything there except blowhards, fossils, and people out of their depth. FF's front bench is frightening in its overall lack of ability.

FG certainly have their fair share of gob****es but at least have Coveney, Donohue, Bruton, Harris, Kate O'Connell, Catherine Noone and Neale Richmond who are competent and able politicians. I've always felt that there is slightly more of a public service ethic in FG than in FF, although that isn't saying a whole lot.

I agree with you. FF has no talent outside Stephen Donnelly. I really wished my beloved FG signed him after he left the SD.

robman60

antimatterx wrote: »

I agree with you. FF has no talent outside Stephen Donnelly. I really wished my beloved FG signed him after he left the SD.

Always thought Michael McGrath seemed capable too, surprised he's not getting a mention.

Poster above saying Harris is capable? can't say I've ever heard a straight answer on anything from him. Outright career politician from the get go.

FrancieBrady

LuasSimon wrote: »

Anyone who has been robbed by travellers or suffered intimidation , violence etc from same will vote Peter Casey . It’s not his fault there’s so many people who have suffered at the hands of travellers and for now he’s about the only one who’s calling out a major issue for so many people . If you live in South Dublin( Donnybrook - Rathgar - Dalkey ) it’s not a problem but nearly everywhere else it has a huge impact in many peoples lives .

Yeh, he disassociated himself from his comments when he realised who was following him, he then tried to sleeveen his way into FF and now he is proposing to stand in a constituency he has no connection to bar his desire to maximise his own publicity.

Charlatan and a fraud.

seligehgit

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Brits will be claiming we punished Varadkar for being against Brexit.

Absolutely basis for such an outlandish claim.

FrancieBrady

Impressive performance by Martin on the News At One.
Justin, try as he might, couldn't even get near landing a punch.

Collie D

Asked this question on the posters thread in Current Affairs but probably get an answer here.

What are the rules regarding posters? There is one candidate in Dublin Bay North who certainly isn’t a sitting TD with “INDEPENDENT TD” printed at the top of his posters.

antimatterx

VinLieger wrote: »

FF also promising to put retirement age back to 65, no wonder they are flying ahead, turkeys voting for christmas

Retirement age needs to increase. We're living longer, so we need to work longer.

NIMAN

Collie D wrote: »

Asked this question on the posters thread in Current Affairs but probably get an answer here.

What are the rules regarding posters? There is one candidate in Dublin Bay North who certainly isn’t a sitting TD with “INDEPENDENT TD” printed at the top of his posters.

Can't accuse this candidate of single use plastic so!

Collie D

NIMAN wrote: »

Can't accuse this candidate of single use plastic so!

Ha.

I should clarify..he has never been a TD. I’d never even heard of him until I saw quite a few of his posters last night.

is_that_so

Not at all sure about this "savings plan". Remembrance of times past!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-promises-first-time-buyer-saving-scheme-if-elected-1.4144402

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Impressive performance by Martin on the News At One.
Justin, try as he might, couldn't even get near landing a punch.

Was this Justin Treacy the sports guy?

Kermit.de.frog

No matter what your views Varadkar is 100% right here.

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1218898285479583746


Every time FF has been in government they have bust up the country.

This is fact and some want to ignore it because they don't like Varadkar.

The country will be busted up again.

Itssoeasy

The poll is clearly and obviously a very bad poll for FG but it's one poll. If the numbers continue this way than if I was in FG I'd be worried. By the same token I doubt that FF are opening the champagne either as again it's one poll. The next poll will be one to watch.

Seth Brundle

is_that_so wrote: »

Not at all sure about this "savings plan". Remembrance of times past!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-promises-first-time-buyer-saving-scheme-if-elected-1.4144402

I read that a while ago. I mentioned the concept to my 13yo daughter who was able to tell me that it would increase the price of a house!
Some people never learn :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

Where Fianna Fáil TDs stood on the eight amendment

https://twitter.com/colettebrowne/status/1218849307387887616

pixelburp

McMurphy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

So, if someone stats'y can clarify, with a 3% margin of error, does that mean or imply that most of those movements are almost non existent? That if the needle only shifted 1% it basically amounts to nothing in real terms - plus the gap between FF/FG not being as stark as the numbers might say otherwise?

Is there any basis to negate the gains and losses under the MoE, or is it just a figure used to save the blushes of the pollsters?

Brussels Sprout

antimatterx wrote: »

Retirement age needs to increase. We're living longer, so we need to work longer.

FF specialise in letting the electorate avoid hard-truths like this.

An Ciarraioch

Shane Coleman predictions in Sunday Independent (aggregates his constituency forecasts):

FF 55
FG 46
Ind 18
SF 17
Green 11
Lab 8
Soc Dems 2
Sol/PBP 2 (Coppinger, Smith)
Aontú 1

beggars_bush

If FG just keep making everything about FF then they will lose
There are a lot of problems in the country

Banner2theend

No more of the blueshirts stuff please.

FrancieBrady

is_that_so wrote: »

Was this Justin Treacy the sports guy?

Justin McCarthy

VinLieger

antimatterx wrote: »

Retirement age needs to increase. We're living longer, so we need to work longer.

Its actually even worse than that, in the last 20-30 years weve been having far less children thanks to how expensive its gotten, creche etc, so by 2040 the ratio of workers to retirees will be about 3:1 compared to 5:1 now. With that many people out of the income tax net and so many more elderly drawing on critical services like health as well as the state pension being unfundable in this scenario and we are well and truly screwed because politicians continually refuse to plan for this ticking time bomb and want to make it worse by not increasing retirement.

beggars_bush

VinLieger wrote: »

Its actually even worse than that, in the last 20-30 years weve been having far less children thanks to how expensive its gotten, creche etc, so by 2040 the ratio of workers to retirees will be about 3:1 compared to 5:1 now. With that many people out of the income tax net and so many more elderly drawing on critical services like health as well as the state pension being unfundable in this scenario and we are well and truly screwed because politicians continually refuse to plan for this ticking time bomb and want to make it worse by not increasing retirement.

Increase pension contributions from workers
No party will have that in their manifesto though

is_that_so

pixelburp wrote: »

So, if someone stats'y can clarify, with a 3% margin of error, does that mean or imply that most of those movements are almost non existent? That if the needle only shifted 1% it basically amounts to nothing in real terms - plus the gap between FF/FG not being as stark as the numbers might say otherwise?

Is there any basis to negate the gains and losses under the MoE, or is it just a figure used to save the blushes of the pollsters?

It means that the FF 32% could be as low as 29% or as high as 35% and that the FG 20% may be as high as 23% or as low as 17%. The MOE is used because people polled are random and one cannot say with absolute certainty support levels have been exactly captured. Usually the level of MOE indicates the accuracy although most do hover in around 3% anyway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Justin McCarthy

Meh, lightweight!

hotmail.com

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Shane Coleman predictions in Sunday Independent (aggregates his constituency forecasts):

FF 55
FG 46
Ind 18
SF 17
Green 11
Lab 8
Soc Dems 2
Sol/PBP 2 (Coppinger, Smith)
Aontú 1

Social Democrats on 2 - no seat for Gary Gannon in Dublin Central is his prediction.

is_that_so

hotmail.com wrote: »

Social Democrats on 2 - no seat for Gary Gannon in Dublin Central is his prediction.

Not if there is an increase like that for FF. Fitzpatrick will pass him.

I Am The Law

VinLieger wrote: »

Its actually even worse than that, in the last 20-30 years weve been having far less children thanks to how expensive its gotten, creche etc, so by 2040 the ratio of workers to retirees will be about 3:1 compared to 5:1 now. With that many people out of the income tax net and so many more elderly drawing on critical services like health as well as the state pension being unfundable in this scenario and we are well and truly screwed because politicians continually refuse to plan for this ticking time bomb and want to make it worse by not increasing retirement.

I wouldn't worry about it. By 2040 all our new Irish citizens will be working in legitimate employment and contributing vast amounts of PAYE, PRSI and USC keeping us all cosy in our old age.

VinLieger

beggars_bush wrote: »

Increase pension contributions from workers
No party will have that in their manifesto though

Not how the state pension works unfortunately which is part of the problem, too many people believe their state pension will be there when they retore but in reality contributions paid in today are actuslly given out to a current retiree tomorrow and with currently only 35% with a private pension were in serious trouble. But that wont be talked about this election sycle cus its way too real and depressing.

MarinersBlues

is_that_so wrote: »

It means that the FF 32% could be as low as 29% or as high as 35% and that the FG 20% may be as high as 23% or as low as 17%. The MOE is used because people polled are random and one cannot say with absolute certainty support levels have been exactly captured. Usually the level of MOE indicates the accuracy although most do hover in around 3% anyway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

The margin of error is a direct function of the sample size.

If a poll is of 1000 people then the margin is always 3%

There may be other issues such as selection bias that won't be covered by MOE.

darlett

It feels like the big project of this generation is to be the Children's Hospital, for which it seems a massive error is building it in inner city. Madness for emergencies with the **** state of traffic. Also thoughtless for parents if children travelling to Dublin for regular treatments as the journey in from M50 can be maddeningly slow. Its crying out to be built on a site near Blanchardstown as was suggested.

Is there any party with a policy to reconsider this. Do FF agree with FG? It seems like it should be a bigger campaign issue, but I cant see anyone with it as a policy. Tbf, I can't see any policies full stop.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of getting himself some publicity? Course he will, there are plenty who cheer his every utterance since he had a pop at travellers.

Casey could take a seat in Donegal, he could lose his deposit in Dublin West, you are the only one suggesting he run there.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Casey could take a seat in Donegal, he could lose his deposit in Dublin West, you are the only one suggesting he run there.

I was reacting to a post rather than suggesting anything for Casey.

Hotmail.com wrote:

Peter Casey to run in Dublin West?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112294604&postcount=281

My suggestion would be that he retire. The public have suggested it to him 3 times now.

Skylinehead

darlett wrote: »

It feels like the big project of this generation is to be the Children's Hospital, for which it seems a massive error is building it in inner city. Madness for emergencies with the **** state of traffic. Also thoughtless for parents if children travelling to Dublin for regular treatments as the journey in from M50 can be maddeningly slow. Its crying out to be built on a site near Blanchardstown as was suggested.

Is there any party with a policy to reconsider this. Do FF agree with FG? It seems like it should be a bigger campaign issue, but I cant see anyone with it as a policy. Tbf, I can't see any policies full stop.

Decision was made, construction has started. Would be lunacy to tear it all down and start from scratch now. What was that about cost overruns? Think what they would be having to start again.

hotmail.com

darlett wrote: »

It feels like the big project of this generation is to be the Children's Hospital, for which it seems a massive error is building it in inner city. Madness for emergencies with the **** state of traffic. Also thoughtless for parents if children travelling to Dublin for regular treatments as the journey in from M50 can be maddeningly slow. Its crying out to be built on a site near Blanchardstown as was suggested.

Is there any party with a policy to reconsider this. Do FF agree with FG? It seems like it should be a bigger campaign issue, but I cant see anyone with it as a policy. Tbf, I can't see any policies full stop.

The hospital is linked by Luas and bus and is one stop away from Heuston Station on the Luas.

Blanch is poorly served by public transport and the M50 is a growing nightmare. So James' makes far more sense.

I suspect the over expense at James' would have happened at Blanch as well.

darlett

Skylinehead wrote: »

Decision was made, construction has started. Would be lunacy to tear it all down and start from scratch now. What was that about cost overruns? Think what they would be having to start again.

Ooooh! I stand corrected. :oI thought they were still circling around waiting to dig the first sod. Er, well then, it's as you were. As far as the over spend goes, is much of that specific to the site, or is it all equipment etc?