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GE2020

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  • 18-01-2020 8:44pm
    #1
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,199 ✭✭✭


    5 seats, all of the sitting deputies are running again.
    • Deputy Simon Harris (Fine Gael),
    • Deputy Andrew Doyle (Fine Gael),
    • Billy Timmins (Fine Gael),
    • Deputy Pat Casey (Fianna Fáil),
    • Deputy Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil),
    • Deputy John Brady (Sinn Féin),
    • Cllr. Paul O’Brien (Labour Party),
    • Cllr. Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats),
    • Sharon Briggs (People Before Profit),
    • Cllr. Steven Matthews (Green Party),
    • Seamus Connor (Aontu),
    • Eileen Gunning (National Party),
    • Cllr. Joe Behan (Independent),
    • Cllr John Snell (Independent),
    • Charlie Keddy (Independent),
    • Daragh Fitzgerald (Independent),
    • John Larkin (Independent)

    Who's most likely to lose their seat, if any, and who's in with a shot of replacing them?

    Will negative headlines around his management of the health portfolio damage Simon Harris's vote getting ability?


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    #2
    Peckham
    Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭Peckham


    Expected Donnelly to struggle, but if FF doing as well as today's poll suggests then they should hold both seats.

    If either FF seat is lost you'd presume Matthews will take it. Limited profile outside Bray may hurt him, but should clean up on transfers.

    Harris and Doyle both as safe as houses.

    Brady to top the poll?


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    #3
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Peckham wrote: »
    Expected Donnelly to struggle, but if FF doing as well as today's poll suggests then they should hold both seats.

    If either FF seat is lost you'd presume Matthews will take it. Limited profile outside Bray may hurt him, but should clean up on transfers.

    Harris and Doyle both as safe as houses.

    Brady to top the poll?

    I REALLY doubt Brady will top the poll.

    SF in 2014 won 6 local election seats. SF in 2019 won 2. A lot of their former members and supporters will be supporting Cllr John Snell and still pissed off at how they treated Cllr Gerry O'Neill and Former Cllrs Rossa Murray and Oliver O'Brien.

    He could be in potential trouble and at risk of losing his seat if there is a national swing away from them.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #4
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I think

    Harris safe
    Casey safe

    Timmins to edge ahead of Doyle

    Group of death 2 seats between Brady, Doyle, Donnelly, Matthews, Whitmore. O'Brien and Behan have an outside but doubtful shot in this group 2.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #5
    sumo12
    Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭sumo12


    Donnelly, Harris, Doyle safe as houses. Scrap for the rest after that....


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    #6
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,928 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Last time out: https://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=235

    Brady looks safe enough, he nearly had a full quota in 2016 and SF in general look like they'll be around the same level as then.

    FF: Donnelly + Casey had 1.8 quotas between them. Donnelly may lose some personal support due to his defection but if the swing to FF is as strong as yesterday's poll suggests it should get them both over the line.

    The 3 FG candidates had 1.95 quotas, with not much between Doyle and Timmins (who was with Renua in 2016 but has a strong personal base in the wild west). A bad day could see them down to 1 TD, which of them gets it is anyone's guess, though Harris's high profile might favour him.

    The Greens were a long way from a seat in 2016, whilst the SDs seat was heavily built on Donnelly's personal support from 2011, I don't know how much of that will transfer to Whitmore. They'll both be hoping that Donnelly's support is an "anyone but FF/FG" seat that could transfer to one of them (there was previously a solid Labour seat in Wicklow, though Brady has poached a chunk of that vote).


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    #7
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    sumo12 wrote: »
    Donnelly, Harris, Doyle safe as houses. Scrap for the rest after that....

    Cant agree with Donnelly or Doyle

    Donnelly has lot many many votes because of moving from independent to sds to independent to ff.

    Doyle only scraped in last time and will be squeezed put by Timmins in the West and Casey and O'Brien in the East.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #8
    sumo12
    Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭sumo12


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Cant agree with Donnelly or Doyle

    Donnelly has lot many many votes because of moving from independent to sds to independent to ff.

    Doyle only scraped in last time and will be squeezed put by Timmins in the West and Casey and O'Brien in the East.

    Fair comments. I'll change my "safe as houses" to "I would expect"

    Forgot about Timmins temporary Renua stupidity last time out.... yes he has good support.

    Depends how big the "protest" vote is but there are so many options for the protest vote that it will dilute the opportunity for (m)any of them to get quota.


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    #9
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    I’m hearing the recent polls has increased the possibility of a third FF. candidate.
    Pat Kennedy......
    Polled extremely well in the locals. He is rural but if pushed himself as an Arklow candidate he would out poll his wife’s Uncle, Pat Casey.

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #10
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Working class heroes wrote: »
    I’m hearing the recent polls has increased the possibility of a third FF. candidate.
    Pat Kennedy......
    Polled extremely well in the locals. He is rural but if pushed himself as an Arklow candidate he would out poll his wife’s Uncle, Pat Casey.
    I dont think he would outpoll Pat Casey. They'd be mad to run 3. That poll is not reliable.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #11
    Arthur Daley
    Registered Users Posts: 4,464 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    Wonder where Donnelly will turn up next election. Jeez he's some spoofer.

    Expect FG and SF vote to be down on 2016. So 2 FG seats and the 1 SF not guaranteed.


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    #12
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    And Valerie Cox enters the race

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #13
    zoobizoo
    Registered Users Posts: 2,729 ✭✭✭zoobizoo


    Vote Keddy No. 1


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    #14
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,928 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    zoobizoo wrote: »
    Vote Keddy No. 1

    this could be his year!


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    #15
    murpho999
    Registered Users Posts: 28,476 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    I wonder about Donnelly, voted for him last time but lost respect for him for joining FF and will not be voting for him.

    I think a lot of his voters may feel the same but some will stay with him and hardcore FF will vote for him.


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    #16
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    murpho999 wrote: »
    I wonder about Donnelly, voted for him last time but lost respect for him for joining FF and will not be voting for him.

    I think a lot of his voters may feel the same but some will stay with him and hardcore FF will vote for him.

    Yep. I’d imagine he did his homework before he went into the tent. I think one will balance out the other.

    I think FG running three horses is a mistake. Two candidates would almost certainly result in two seats. Harris is safe regardless and Doyle is a proven campaigner. With Timmons running I predict a similar result to what happened to SF in Donegal last time out.

    I’ll make my overall prediction when the deadline passes tomorrow.

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #17
    Peckham
    Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭Peckham


    Now at 20 declared candidates.

    Not quite at the 2011 level (24 candidates), but still more candidates than any other constituency.


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    #18
    Peckham
    Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭Peckham


    Wouldn't fancy being listed at the end of that ballot paper as it trails off the little counter in the polling booth.

    Helps the incumbents as their names are all very early in the alphabet!


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    #19
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,928 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Working class heroes wrote: »

    I think FG running three horses is a mistake. Two candidates would almost certainly result in two seats. Harris is safe regardless and Doyle is a proven campaigner. With Timmons running I predict a similar result to what happened to SF in Donegal last time out.

    they're obviously going to run the 2 incumbents, I guess they feel having Timmins on the ticket boosts their votes in West Wicklow, even if he's a splitter (I must have missed him rejoining FG).


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    #20
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    loyatemu wrote: »
    they're obviously going to run the 2 incumbents, I guess they feel having Timmins on the ticket boosts their votes in West Wicklow, even if he's a splitter (I must have missed him rejoining FG).

    Very low key alright.

    On another note Valerie Cox is running, apparently.

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #21
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Full list of 20 candidates

    -Joe Behan (Independent/Non-Party)
    -John Brady (Sinn Fein)
    -Sharon Briggs (Solidarity-People Before Profit)
    -Pat Casey (Fianna Fail)
    -Seamus Connor (Aontu)
    -Valerie Cox (Independent/Non-Party)
    -Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fail)
    -Andrew Doyle (Fine Gael)
    -Tom Dunne (Independent/Non-Party)
    - Anthony Fitzgerald (Independent/Non-Party)
    -Eileen Gunning (The National Party)
    -Simon Harris (Fine Gael)
    -Charlie Keddy (Independent/Non-Party)
    -William King (Independent/Non-Party)
    -John Larkin (Independent/Non-Party)
    -Steven Matthews (Green Party-Comhaontas Glas)
    -Paul O'Brien (The Labour Party)
    -John Snell (Independent/Non-Party)
    -Billy Timmins (Fine Gael)
    -Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats)

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #22
    recyclops
    Registered Users Posts: 2,441 ✭✭✭recyclops


    this may be of interest of a few here, i will be popping down myself for sure

    https://www.eventbrite.ie/e/ge2020-wicklow-speaks-tickets-91135547877


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    #23
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Here's my prediction for the top of the 1st count
    Jennifer Whitmore to take Andrew Doyle's seat
    As is for the other four

    1 casey FF
    2.Harris FG
    3 Brady SF
    4 Donnelly FF
    5 Whitmore SD
    6 Timmins FG
    7 valerie Cox IND
    8 Doyle FG


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    #24
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,928 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Here's my prediction for the top of the 1st count
    Jennifer Whitmore to take Andrew Doyle's seat
    As is for the other four

    1 casey FF
    2.Harris FG
    3 Brady SF
    4 Donnelly FF
    5 Whitmore SD
    6 Timmins FG
    7 valerie Cox IND
    8 Doyle FG

    you really think Casey will top the poll? There's certainly a guaranteed FF seat, and probably 2 if the backlash against Donnelly isn't too strong, but I think they'll be evenly split.

    Brady to top the poll; also I'd be surprised if all 3 FG candidates outpoll the Greens.


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    #25
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I think now that Brady will top the poll.

    I think Brady and Harris are safe and after that the 3 seats are probably Casey, Whitmore and Timmins though Doyle, Donnelly are in that mix and Behan, Snell, Cox, O'Brien, Matthews in that mix with a more outside chance.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #26
    Peckham
    Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭Peckham


    Ivan Yates podcast, Calling It, is predicting...

    Casey, Brady and Harris safe as houses.

    Cox for the 4th seat

    Donnelly to beat Doyle for final seat


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    #27
    murpho999
    Registered Users Posts: 28,476 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    I think Steven Matthews for the Greens might be fighting for the final seat.


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    #28
    2011
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 12,583 Mod ✭✭✭✭2011


    Here is my prediction:

    1 Brady SF
    2 casey FF
    3 Donnely FF
    4 Timmons FG
    5 Harris FG
    6 Whitmore SD
    7 Doyle FG
    8 Cox IND

    Maybe the 2 FG will be reversed.

    I don’t vote SF myself but I see them gaining more and more support.


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    #29
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Peckham wrote: »
    Ivan Yates podcast, Calling It, is predicting...

    Casey, Brady and Harris safe as houses.

    Cox for the 4th seat

    Donnelly to beat Doyle for final seat

    I'm going to agree with 1, 2 and 3, say Whitmore for 4th seat, and Cox for 5th.


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    #30
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Valerie is somewhat of a dark horse alright
    I do think Jennifer Whitmore is in with a strong chance
    Timmins will probably take Doyle's seat


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    #31
    Peckham
    Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭Peckham


    Can't see how Whitmore makes the cut. Huge support in Greystones (but competing with Harris and Donnelly for the local vote), but limited profile outside of there.

    I've heard nothing from Cox, but guess I'm not her target voter!


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