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    #32
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Peckham wrote: »
    Can't see how Whitmore makes the cut. Huge support in Greystones (but competing with Harris and Donnelly for the local vote), but limited profile outside of there.

    I've heard nothing from Cox, but guess I'm not her target voter!

    Fair point on her profile beyond Greystones, but I think she will wipe the floor with Donnelly in terms of local Greystones votes!


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    #33
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Peckham wrote: »
    Can't see how Whitmore makes the cut. Huge support in Greystones (but competing with Harris and Donnelly for the local vote), but limited profile outside of there.

    I've heard nothing from Cox, but guess I'm not her target voter!

    Whitmore was canvassing in Arklow with a high profile independent down there
    That will help


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    #34
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Whitmore has built up a profile in Bray and Arklow and West Wicklow a bit too. She is definitely a strong contender.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #35
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    For what it’s worth here are my picks.
    The first 3 in will be Brady, Donnelly, and Harris in that order.

    The last two are tough to call.
    A lot of commentary doing the rounds that Casey will post higher than Donnelly.
    This is just silly buggers. But he should get in regardless. So fourth seat to Casey.
    For the last seat we will have a 5/6 way dog fight.
    Whitmore, Doyle, Timmons, Cox, Mathews. However, I’m going to give the last seat to Snell. He is very popular around the Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford area. He is going to pick up a lot of traditional Labour voters as they haven’t a strong candidate, as a former Shinner he can still ride that wave and I believe he is doing well on the Arklow doorsteps.

    Brady
    Donnelly
    Harris
    Casey
    Snell

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #36
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Working class heroes wrote: »
    For what it’s worth here are my picks.
    The first 3 in will be Brady, Donnelly, and Harris in that order.

    The last two are tough to call.
    A lot of commentary doing the rounds that Casey will post higher than Donnelly.
    This is just silly buggers. But he should get in regardless. So fourth seat to Casey.
    For the last seat we will have a 5/6 way dog fight.
    Whitmore, Doyle, Timmons, Cox, Mathews. However, I’m going to give the last seat to Snell. He is very popular around the Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford area. He is going to pick up a lot of traditional Labour voters as they haven’t a strong candidate, as a former Shinner he can still ride that wave and I believe he is doing well on the Arklow doorsteps.

    Brady
    Donnelly
    Harris
    Casey
    Snell

    Not a chance Donnelly will outpoll Casey and I cant see Snell taking a seat either. The Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford will be split between Labour and Snell.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #37
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Not a chance Donnelly will outpoll Casey and I cant see Snell taking a seat either. The Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford will be split between Labour and Snell.

    Of course this is all just my opinion but I think he will. I’ve been involved in a few campaigns in the area and I’m getting the sense he has reached his limit, vote wise.

    Also the fact that you didn’t name check the Labour candidate (O’Brien) says a lot about his profile. Snell is a lot more popular in that area.

    Again all this is just my opinion, I could be as far out as Kish Lighthouse.

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #38
    Doodah7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,753 ✭✭✭Doodah7


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Not a chance Donnelly will outpoll Casey and I cant see Snell taking a seat either. The Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford will be split between Labour and Snell.

    This. Brady is a cert for a SF seat, Casey for a FF one and Harris for FG and in that order too. The other two seats will be an absolute dogfight with Cox, Donnelly, Doyle, Timmins and Whitmore duking it out. As always, it will ultimately depend on transfers with Cox likely to pick some up due to profile (TV/Radio), female, independent and campaigning on age issues (pension etc.). However first preferences might hurt her.

    For Donnelly it will depend on how much over the quota Casey will be to help along with whichever non-left candidate is eliminated first as well as how far in the tide comes for FF.

    Timmins may have age against him and leaving and returning to FG but has geography/name recognition on his side.

    Doyle will need Timmins to be eliminated first if he is to have a chance and hoover up his transfers which don't necessarily always cross the Wicklow mountains.

    Whitmore will get c. 4000 first preferences but I'm not sure how transfer friendly she is and is in a very crowded field geographically.

    As for Snell, I don't think has the profile this time out and may need to work in the background for another 4/5 years.

    In summary: Brady, Casey, Higgins, Cox and Doyle (or Donnelly!).


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    #39
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    Can I ask why people think Casey will our poll Donnelly?

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #40
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,928 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Donnelly received over twice the votes of Casey in 2016. A lot depends on how the FF vote holds up overall but Casey is something of a non-entity outside his core area, whereas Donnelly (for better and worse) is on TV all the time. Donnelly will certainly lose votes for his defection, but I don't see any reason why Casey will suddenly shoot up the polls.


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    #41
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    Yates about to discuss Wicklow now.

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #42
    Peckham
    Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭Peckham


    Both Donnelly-backed candidates failed to get elected in Bray in the locals, with one of the two "independent FF" candidates getting elected and the other missing out by 1 vote!

    The FF candidate in Greystones who I think is most closely aligned with him Greystones didn't get elected.

    That's a big indicator of his support in north Wicklow.


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    #43
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Peckham wrote: »
    Both Donnelly-backed candidates failed to get elected in Bray in the locals, with one of the two "independent FF" candidates getting elected and the other missing out by 1 vote!

    The FF candidate in Greystones who I think is most closely aligned with him Greystones didn't get elected.

    That's a big indicator of his support in north Wicklow.

    I agree. He got elected in to the dail in the first place largely thanks to big local support in Greystones, I think that support is non existent now and I can’t imagine he’s picked up support in Arklow or Baltinglass to compensate.


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    #44
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Working class heroes wrote: »
    Can I ask why people think Casey will our poll Donnelly?

    Because Donnelly lost a massive amount of support switching from SDs to Indo to FF. His previous voters are very angry with him. It has happened where people top the poll and subsequently lose. He supported 4 candidates in the local elections and all performed badly. The Bray FF party is in disarray.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #45
    dogmatix
    Registered Users Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭dogmatix


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Because Donnelly lost a massive amount of support switching from SDs to Indo to FF. His previous voters are very angry with him. It has happened where people top the poll and subsequently lose. He supported 4 candidates in the local elections and all performed badly. The Bray FF party is in disarray.

    This. I voted Donnelly #1 in 2016 and was very much more then a little annoyed that he used my vote to gift FF a second seat in Wicklow. I'd sooner vote John Brady then give Donnelly another chance and since I think John Brady is a dubious creep, that is saying something.

    Also, his election posters are doing him no favours. It features a strange red fuzz on his chin does not go well with his pointed bald pate. Makes him look like a second rate bond villain or an extra from "the hills have eyes" (1977 version).


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    #46
    Sheep breeder
    Registered Users Posts: 2,040 ✭✭✭Sheep breeder


    loyatemu wrote: »
    Donnelly received over twice the votes of Casey in 2016. A lot depends on how the FF vote holds up overall but Casey is something of a non-entity outside his core area, whereas Donnelly (for better and worse) is on TV all the time. Donnelly will certainly lose votes for his defection, but I don't see any reason why Casey will suddenly shoot up the polls.

    Casey has done a lot of local work in the south of the county and has an office in Arklow, in an area that hasn’t had no TD in a long time and has the support of the local councillors and the brother in law on the Arklow council and is active in west Wicklow. Casey is active in all sports circles in the county. Donnelly has not done anything outside Greystones and is not seen around the county.
    Don’t rule John Snell out, he has support in west Wicklow with other ex sinner councillors and is involved with sports in the county.
    Doyle and Timmons are old and have not performed enough, Doyle has done nothing for the biggest problem for farmers in Wicklow the TB problem and farmers will vote away from Doyle.


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    #47
    zoobizoo
    Registered Users Posts: 2,729 ✭✭✭zoobizoo


    dogmatix wrote: »
    I think John Brady is a dubious creep ).

    How come?


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    #48
    dogmatix
    Registered Users Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭dogmatix


    zoobizoo wrote: »
    How come?

    Well there was the issue about the 3 councillors expelled back in 2017. That would be more of a main party issue failure but I felt Brady was placing party loyalties over the "common good". But that's pretty much the standard behaviour with SinnFein. But as for the real reason I don’t like Brady – cannot say but if anyone is here from lott lane in Kilcoole you might understand.


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    #49
    2011
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 12,583 Mod ✭✭✭✭2011


    dogmatix wrote: »
    But as for the real reason I don’t like Brady – cannot say but if anyone is here from lott lane in Kilcoole you might understand.

    :confused:

    What do you mean??


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    #50
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Peckham wrote: »
    Both Donnelly-backed candidates failed to get elected in Bray in the locals, with one of the two "independent FF" candidates getting elected and the other missing out by 1 vote!

    The FF candidate in Greystones who I think is most closely aligned with him Greystones didn't get elected.

    That's a big indicator of his support in north Wicklow.

    Regarding Donnelly, I've heard a lot of local FF in the north of the county refused to canvass for him,they were pushing Casey instead
    Allied to that his Facebook is littered with negative feedback and as facebook is real people not a troll factory like twitter or the journal,that would be concerning

    Valerie Cox will be interesting, she's campaigning strong and her cohort will vote


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    #51
    Working class heroes
    Registered Users Posts: 3,581 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Regarding Donnelly, I've heard a lot of local FF in the north of the county refused to canvass for him,they were pushing Casey instead
    Allied to that his Facebook is littered with negative feedback and as facebook is real people not a troll factory like twitter or the journal,that would be concerning

    Valerie Cox will be interesting, she's campaigning strong and her cohort will vote

    Facebook is littered with people who don’t bother voting.

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



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    #52
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Working class heroes wrote: »
    Facebook is littered with people who don’t bother voting.

    I should hope so!


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    #53
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Regarding Donnelly, I've heard a lot of local FF in the north of the county refused to canvass for him,they were pushing Casey instead
    Allied to that his Facebook is littered with negative feedback and as facebook is real people not a troll factory like twitter or the journal,that would be concerning

    Valerie Cox will be interesting, she's campaigning strong and her cohort will vote

    Ah no. Facebook has loads of bots and trolls.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #54
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Ah no. Facebook has loads of bots and trolls.

    I'd close the whole lot down and just have text messaging :o


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    #55
    B0jangles
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,951 ✭✭✭B0jangles


    Didn't Pat Casey vote against even holding a referendum on the 8th?

    I can accept people using their vote to give their own stance on the issue, but actually voting to deny the whole population from having their their say on the issue seems pretty anti-democratic to me.

    I'm hoping for Jennifer Whitmore and Steven Matthews to do well, and for Stephen Donnelly's vote to collapse - I very much resent being tricked by his 'Independent Candidate' trick into basically voting for Fianna Fail last time around.


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    #56
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,928 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    B0jangles wrote: »
    Didn't Pat Casey vote against even holding a referendum on the 8th?

    I can accept people using their vote to give their own stance on the issue, but actually voting to deny the whole population from having their their say on the issue seems pretty anti-democratic to me.

    I'm hoping for Jennifer Whitmore and Steven Matthews to do well, and for Stephen Donnelly's vote to collapse - I very much resent being tricked by his 'Independent Candidate' trick into basically voting for Fianna Fail last time around.

    I've no time for FF, but if they are going to form the next govt. I'd rather have Donnelly representing Wicklow than Casey who as pointed out above is socially-regressive, and unlikely to be anything more than backbench fodder.

    I'd also like to see both Matthews and Whitmore get in, but I suspect they'll be fighting it out for the last seat. Though if Donnelly's vote does collapse, along with FG's overall share and the SF vote is split by the presence of the unofficial Shinner John Snell, who knows.... It'll be an interesting count anyway.


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    #57
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    I've a strong feeling now that Valerie Cox might take a seat


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    #58
    Plastik
    Registered Users Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭Plastik


    Where does the Wicklow count(s?) take place?


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    #59
    B0jangles
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,951 ✭✭✭B0jangles


    Here's a link to the usual live spreadsheet of the tally:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K_Xn3uZwgvCmi1Mr5Z4l7gtQ4DyIeXD29S9VHwoh3yo/edit?fbclid=IwAR1DBC41okWpxl_f4_QTrumgferUbaDRCv7hQHp_6r8jJHiMTLLcX4SSSyI#gid=0

    Right now 28% of boxes opened - John Brady is leading, followed by Simon Harris, Jennifer Whitmore (!), Steven Matthews (!!), Stephen Donnelly, Billy Timmins, Pat Casey, Joe Behan, then there's a fairly big drop-off to the remaining candidates


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    #60
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Plastik wrote: »
    Where does the Wicklow count(s?) take place?

    Shoreline Greystonex

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #61
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    I've a strong feeling now that Valerie Cox might take a seat

    Haha not a hope

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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