GE2020 Laois-Offaly

Brussels Sprout

Here's the list of candidates for the upcoming election

• Deputy Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (Fine Gael),
• Deputy Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael),
• Deputy Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy Sean Fleming (Fianna Fáil),
• Cllr. Peter Ormond (Fianna Fáil),
• Pauline Flanagan (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy Brian Stanley (Sinn Féin),
• Cllr. Pippa Hackett (Green Party),
• Stephen Tynan (People Before Profit),
• Brendan Galvin (Renua),
• Noel O’Rourke (Renua),
• Cllr. Ken Smollen (Irish Democratic Party),
• John Daly (National Party),
• Deputy Carol Nolan (Independent),
• Cllr. John Leahy (Independent)

In 2016 these were two separate 3-seaters. Now they're back together as a single 5-seater but all 6 TDs are running. So who will miss out and is there anyone to watch out for from the rest?

Brussels Sprout

Also this constituency is a little unusual in having a lot of right-wing candidates. There are 2 from Renua, 1 from the National Party and 1 independent who is ex-Renua. Is this just a coincidence or is it linked to recent immigration to these counties?

Hesh's Umpire

Fleming, Stanley, Cowen are certs.
Flanagan should take an FG seat but I think the fifth seat could be a right oul dogfight with possibly FG hanging on for a second seat with Corcoran Kennedy.

sydthebeat

and the people of portarlington, a town split on the Laois / offaly border..... are now in the south kildare constituency

you couldnt make this sh!t up.....

1o059k7ewrqj3n

Not that I'd vote for them but am I right that there is no Labour candidate for Laois-Offaly this time?

Sonic_exyouth

Hesh's Umpire wrote: »

Fleming, Stanley, Cowen are certs.
Flanagan should take an FG seat but I think the fifth seat could be a right oul dogfight with possibly FG hanging on for a second seat with Corcoran Kennedy.

I'm less sure that Stanley is a cert.

I don't know that he has any traction in Offaly.
My guesstimate is that he will take it, possibly even lead the early tally, but will not get any transfers.

My guess;
* Flanagan (FG)
* Cowen (FF)
* Fleming (FF)
* Corcoran-Kennedy (FG) (- on x-fers)
* Stanley (SF)

Sonic_exyouth

Steyr 556 wrote: »

Not that I'd vote for them but am I right that there is no Labour candidate for Laois-Offaly this time?

They left it late to announce at the Euro's, maybe they are doing it again.

John Whelan is the perennial loser for them in this area, his selection for the seat, nearly 10 years ago led to Labour destroying itself in Laois. He lost in 2011 and again in 2016.
There generally isn't a Labour TD in the area - Pat Gallagher got elected as part of the 'Spring tide' in 1992, but was booted straight out in 1997.

F00t13f4n

Steyr 556 wrote: »

Not that I'd vote for them but am I right that there is no Labour candidate for Laois-Offaly this time?

There is now... Noel Tuohy announced yesterday that he is going to run
https://www.laoistoday.ie/2020/01/20/noel-tuohy-steps-into-the-election-breach-for-labour/

An Ri rua

I just had Pippa Hackett to my door and I have to say the very least I expect from a political party is to canvass and ask. Very pleasant and if someone is decent enough to ask, I'll be mannerly enough to read their literature.

5 minutes later, in Mountmellick, I've just had a woman push both a Renua and a Sinn Féin glossy lealets through my letterbox. I've had a tolerance for Sinn Féin over the years but I don't appreciate anyone literally attempting to buy my vote. I expect the delivery of a leaflet to be of that party. Perhaps it's no different to the postman? But I take umbrage at that form of marketing and I will likely give Carol Nolan the nod now with perhaps Green and another.
The Greens would get it if they applied real world sense and fairness to green policy. They're making sounds in that direction. But the pre-2008 motor tax regime has been a war on both poor and frugal types.

An Ri rua

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Here's the list of candidates for the upcoming election

• Deputy Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (Fine Gael),
• Deputy Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael),
• Deputy Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy Sean Fleming (Fianna Fáil),
• Cllr. Peter Ormond (Fianna Fáil),
• Pauline Flanagan (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy Brian Stanley (Sinn Féin),
• Cllr. Pippa Hackett (Green Party),
• Stephen Tynan (People Before Profit),
• Brendan Galvin (Renua),
• Noel O’Rourke (Renua),
• Cllr. Ken Smollen (Irish Democratic Party),
• John Daly (National Party),
• Deputy Carol Nolan (Independent),
• Cllr. John Leahy (Independent)

In 2016 these were two separate 3-seaters. Now they're back together as a single 5-seater but all 6 TDs are running. So who will miss out and is there anyone to watch out for from the rest?

No affiliation but you should edit your list as Pippa Hackett is now a Senator. Much to my malaise, our Seanad is still used as an incubator. And produces the likes of that FG clown Catherine Noone. God help us. Not that the Dail standard is much higher.

Genghis

Laois Offaly was covered on Ivan Yates show yesterday. It is the only instance in this election where there are N elected TDs contesting N-1 seats. Also referred to possible volatility from taking 20k votes out in the North of the constituency, mainly Laois (Portarlington) and 11k in the South (Near Roscrea, Offaly).

While acknowledging Laois TDs may lose out more from losing Portarlington, Ivan nevertheless predicted Fleming would be safe, as would Stanley (he feels Stanley has enough profile in Offaly to carry him over the line, especially as the ex-SF TD Nolan is not being replaced by another SF). On Offaly side he predicted Cowen as safe / poll topper, but key to the final constituency outcome will be if he can distribute his surplus and get another Offaly FF TD over the line. Ivan mentioned he would be under big pressure to do this (promise of Minsterial position) as he had enough votes last time but stubbornly didn't manage them.

Re: FG, he predicts a significant slump with both TDs losing votes and likely only enough votes across the constituency to elect one, of which it will be Charlie Flanagan. Did not give Marcella Corcoran Kennedy any reasonable chance.

So 3 FF (Cowen, Fleming and likely Ormond via Cowen vote management), 1 SF (Stanley), 1 FG (Flanagan).

I can't argue with Ivans analysis, which predicts 2 TDs losing their seats. I do wonder if Charlie Flanagan might be not the fourth, but the last seat filled, depending on when Corcoran-Kennedy is eliminated.

Claude Burgundy

I'm in Portarlington and don't know one of those running for "South Kildare". At least in Laois/Offaly i had a knowledge of candidates and what they stood for as people.

Now, not a clue do a have or the interest to find out. The area has been hung out to dry by those who redrew the lines to make this happen.

1o059k7ewrqj3n

How is Port in South Kildare?

Claude Burgundy

Steyr 556 wrote: »

How is Port in South Kildare?

Wouldn't i love to know !

Genghis

Claude Burgundy wrote: »

I'm in Portarlington and don't know one of those running for "South Kildare". At least in Laois/Offaly i had a knowledge of candidates and what they stood for as people.

Now, not a clue do a have or the interest to find out. The area has been hung out to dry by those who redrew the lines to make this happen.

Agree, I think Port has been disenfranchised. Never a fan either of the local election area, Portarlibgton-Graiguecullen. People in Monasterevin felt the same way in GE2011. I wonder if there will be another re-draw come 2024/25?

Genghis

Steyr 556 wrote: »

How is Port in South Kildare?

I imagine within their natural county borders one or both Laois and Offaly are too small to be 3 seaters.

At the same time, Laois Offaly together are too big for 5 seats.

Meanwhile, Kildare South is itself just below threshold for 4 seats.

So someone has addressed all this by moving Port out of Laois Offaly and into Kildare South. I believe there was a similar adjustment at the other end of Offaly.

I think things will change again reflecting the commuter belt. Not do long ago (1997) Kildare was a single 5 seater constituency, this election there will be 8 Kildare TDs returned (2 X 4). I think if Kildare grew by 10,000 people it might mean Port can be returned and Laois and Offaly can again be separate 3 seaters.

The Princess Bride

An Ri rua wrote: »

I just had Pippa Hackett to my door and I have to say the very least I expect from a political party is to canvass and ask. Very pleasant and if someone is decent enough to ask, I'll be mannerly enough to read their literature.

I agree, if you want my vote, make it your business to meet me, or at least try.

I've had nobody call yet, so will see what happens.

Calhoun

Attended a meeting tonight a mini hustings focused on special needs in Laois. Rankings of the individuals tonight.

Ranked in order of performance:

Deputy Brian Stanley (Sinn Féin), - Understood the subject matter very well and could go into detail on problem areas, was supportive and i left the meeting feeling like he got what people were saying.
Deputy Sean Fleming (Fianna Fáil), - Understood the subject matter well, had a few opinions on the state of where Laois is from an education perspective that i didn't like but his overall solution for how to move forward with special education was best of the lot.
Deputy Carol Nolan (Independent), - Understood the subject matter well due to her background in teach but the problem i would forsee is her ability to get stuff done as she is on her own.
Deputy Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael), - Bad performance from Charlie, similar to how the party is in the media, not really listening to the problems and providing canned answers. Came across as very disinterested.
Stephen Tynan (People Before Profit), - Definitely a newer candidate, was a bit all over the place but he would know the subject matter as he has kids who are in need of support but was not able to articulate very well.
Pauline Flanagan (Fianna Fáil), - I honestly don't know why she was there as she did not do her homework and was a little bit embarrassing at times. I don't want someone going into power who can nod and a wink get my what i need


No Show:
Cllr. John Leahy (Independent)
Brendan Galvin (Renua),
Noel O’Rourke (Renua),
Cllr. Ken Smollen (Irish Democratic Party),
John Daly (National Party),
Cllr. Peter Ormond (Fianna Fáil),
Deputy Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil),
Deputy Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (Fine Gael),
Cllr. Pippa Hackett (Green Party),

its kind of stupid as im now in south kildare but i am posting as we get all our support from laois offaly.

Genghis

Thanks Calhoun for the detailed report.

I think the leading candidates here conformed to their reputation, Fleming is very able and genuine, Stanley similarly a good all rounder, but particularly well known as a hard worker locally, Flanagan aloof, entitled and out of touch.

Surprised Noel Tuohy wasn't there. Interesting about Pauline Flanagan, I don't have any info on her but sounds like she would have been better staying away (perhaps her strengths are on other issues).

I think from the Laois side Fleming and Stanley are safe. I think C. Flanagan will get over the line with habitual votes from people who recognise him or always vote FG, but I think he might be the last place filled and he won't be front bench in the next Dail. Retirement thereafter.

Might be a shock if say SF get a seat from Offaly, or the Green Candidate polls really well across the full constituency, but I still think 3 FF (Cowan, Fleming, Ormonde), 1 SF (Stanley), 1 FG (Flanagan).

Calhoun

Apologies for the delay in responding been a busy day.

Pretty spot on with the candidates and how they came across in the meeting, Charlie i think possibly felt a bit underfire as it was a heated conversation but 9+ years of neglect will lead to that. It was doubley bad for him as the members had met with a number of the TD's 5 years ago and nothing had changed, they had submitted allot of recommendations with no follow through.

I was surprised also surprised that Labour wasn't there considering how closely they value human rights. I also thought we might see someone from the Greens as they are pretty much low on the ground in the area and did bad in the last locals. I appreciate they are focused on the climate but if they want to be considerable players in the government they have to show policy elsewhere.

Pauline would have been better staying away, essentially her whole spiel came across like she could get individuals things done with a nod and a wink (cute hoor style politics). The special educational needs in Laois/Offaly are so dire and is a systemic problem it needs proper management not piece meal token items. She also misjudged allot of the anger in the room and the only reason i think nobody had a go is because there were bigger fish in the room to fry.

I agree with your assessment, i also think Charlie will be relegated to the back bench after the RIC debacle coming up to the election.

SF it depends they are good in some cases but bad in others, the Kildare South candidate is on holidays at the moment and has missed most hustings. That is going to factor heavily into voting on the day. I hope the candidate in offaly is better than that.

Genghis

Yes think that SF candidate in Kildare South (Patricia Ryan) will miss out on being elected due to her holiday.

SF seem to lose elected members faster than other parties. The Offaly TD (Nolan) won on SF ticket then went independent & is now up against a new SF party candidate. Splitting the vote in one half of the constituency, when it at the same time it is reducing by 1 seat was always going to be a tall ask, SF surge or not.

Sonic_exyouth

Genghis wrote: »

Yes think that SF candidate in Kildare South (Patricia Ryan) will miss out on being elected due to her holiday.

SF seem to lose elected members faster than other parties. The Offaly TD (Nolan) won on SF ticket then went independent & is now up against a new SF party candidate. Splitting the vote in one half of the constituency, when it at the same time it is reducing by 1 seat was always going to be a tall ask, SF surge or not.

.. There is no new SF candidate. It's just Brian Stanley, TD.

Genghis

Sonic_exyouth wrote: »

.. There is no new SF candidate. It's just Brian Stanley, TD.

Yep, you are right. Brain fart moment

Sonic_exyouth

Sonic_exyouth wrote: »

My guess;
* Flanagan (FG)

√☻

Sonic_exyouth wrote: »

* Cowen (FF)

√☻

Sonic_exyouth wrote: »

* Fleming (FF)

√☻

Sonic_exyouth wrote: »

* Corcoran-Kennedy (FG) (- on x-fers)

This was very, very wrong! Well done Carol Nolan!

Sonic_exyouth wrote: »

* Stanley (SF)

√☻

4 out of five