Fine Gael 'in crisis' after falling 12% in the polls

Bishop of hope

Darc19 wrote: »

FG have definitely dropped and ff have moved up.
But certainly not at the levels in this poll

And SF at 19%???


Not a chance.

The Sunday times polls tend to be quite different from other polls.

It's the first poll we've seen so far, but it doesent surprise me one bit.
If FG are reading it then it must surely wake something up in them or they could be like you and dismiss it, I wonder which will it be?

BENDYBINN

Taking the bulldozer to the homeless people was the last straw for most people......

Irish politics in a nutshell, all about what happened 100 years ago and nothing to do with modern day society.

On the bright side, at least this time around I'll know to sell at the peak.

McMurphy

Think things will get worse when Leo has to take part in live debates.

I am looking forward to him trying to defend housing/health on the national airwaves, and also hope someone asks him for his theory as to how Denis O'Briens always winning state contracts when his party is in govt, and how awarding him these contracts ends up with extremely costly enquiries.

Mobile phone.- enquiry and results still gathering dust.
Siteserv.- enquiry due to be concluded soon.
Broadband - who wants to bet there'll be an enquiry here too?

giveitholly

And Leo more interested in Harry and Meghan doesn't do Fine Gael any favours either,he is totally living in a bubble and that smirk he has constantly wouldn't endear him to many people

ddarcy

LostArt wrote: »

samples of less than 1000 are generally pretty useless, but the size of this swing is striking. FF/Green government again is seriously depressing.

That is totally incorrect. How the sample is created, is it stratified correctly, how are unknowns handled etc is what will tell of a poll is more accurate or not.

If looking at past polls by this company, they tend to have a positive bias to SF (so over estimate them, which aside from RedC is true of all polls here), a slight negative bias to FG (so underestimate them slightly) and probably what will worry you is it tends to have a negative bias to FF (so underestimated them at a higher rate than FG).

So if true FF could be on 34, FG 23, SF 16. The other caveat is timing, this really wasn’t done over the election start. I think it has the first Election Day campaigning only in it.

almostover

giveitholly wrote: »

And Leo more interested in Harry and Meghan doesn't do Fine Gael any favours either,he is totally living in a bubble and that smirk he has constantly wouldn't endear him to many people

FG picked the wrong leader after Enda Kenny!

almostover

What is most interesting about this opinion poll result is that FF have sat on the sidelines enabling FG policies for the duration of the last government and people believe FF to be a conduit for change in the next government.

FG and FF are very similar parties drawing votes from a very similar electoral base. Many people will flip their votes between these two parties based on who has cocked up less of late. Given it's almost 100 years since the civil war, FG and FF should bury the hatchet and amalgamate as a centrist party. At least then nobody is under the illusion that they are voting for change by voting FF after a FG government and vice versa.

As for the Greens.....don't get me started. It was them who pushed us towards diesel cars which are now making sh1t of the air quality in our cities. I can't stand the Greens and wouldn't dream of giving them even a transfer.

MarinersBlues

McMurphy wrote: »

FFs odds have now been slashed dramatically.

Most seats odds now at 1 - 4 on. For people not that familiar with odds that means if you bet on FF to return the most seats in this election you would get €1 back for every €4 you bet. If that bets successful.

Meanwhile FG are at 5 - 2 and as above, if you place a bet on FG returning more seats and it comes to fruition, then you would get €2.50 for every €1 you bet.

Each leader being made Taoiseach are as follows.

M.M 1 - 5 on.

Leo Varadkar, 3 - 1.

An easier way of looking at it might be, if you account for the in built profit margin:

1/4 ~ 77% chance
5/2 ~ 22% chance

1/5 ~ 78%
3/1 ~ 20%

What is even more interesting here is that the odds imply there is a chance MM will be Taoiseach without getting the most seats and conversely there is a chance Leo won't be Taoiseach even if FG get the most seats.

Looks like FF have done better work on securing potential coalition partners.

Bishop of hope

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Irish politics in a nutshell, all about what happened 100 years ago and nothing to do with modern day society.

On the bright side, at least this time around I'll know to sell at the peak.

Or the lack of current alternatives could be it too.
The Left has had our worst ever 10 years since the foundation of the state to convince people to change and give them a chance, but it hasn't happened, because most people just don't believe them.

RobAMerc

how a Michael Martin led party are at anything above 3% and a admittedly misguided RIC commemoration can make a party fall 12% shows me how immature the Irish voting public are. We deserve what we get. ( And it wont be good )

Arthur Daley

almostover wrote: »

FG and FF are very similar parties drawing votes from a very similar electoral base. Many people will flip their votes between these two parties based on who has cocked up less of late. Given it's almost 100 years since the civil war, FG and FF should bury the hatchet and amalgamate as a centrist party. At least then nobody is under the illusion that they are voting for change by voting FF after a FG government and vice versa.

As for the Greens.....don't get me started. It was them who pushed us towards diesel cars which are now making sh1t of the air quality in our cities. I can't stand the Greens and wouldn't dream of giving them even a transfer.

Yes the green party are responsible for all those diesels spewing filthy air into our environment. Including the diesel buses running up the m50 'out of service'. In particular Eamonn Ryan. Spoofers.

almostover

RobAMerc wrote: »

how a Michael Martin led party are at anything above 3% and a admittedly misguided RIC commemoration can make a party fall 12% shows me how immature the Irish voting public are. We deserve what we get. ( And it wont be good )

The thought of Micheal Martin being taoiseach is the ultimate insult. A man who sat idly by whilst the last FF government destroyed the economy through greed and mismanagement and who has the personality and charisma of a wet dish cloth. Jesus wept! Having said that Leo V has been abysmal as taoiseach. Completely aloof and out of touch.

markodaly

Bishop of hope wrote: »

I don't know if any or many of you on the politics thread are on Facebook or twitter, but there's a massive anti FG thing going on on both, if social media is anything to go by then I can easily see how there is a strong resentment being built up against them.

Social media is a cesspit of angry yobbos and idiots.
I wouldn't pay too much head into what is said there.

Sleeper12

iebamm2580 wrote:

**** ff, people have short memories. FG, flanagan in particular is a clown but at least they are planning on some tax cuts.

It depends on how long memory you want to have. Go back far enough and you will see FF created the booming economy in the first place before the collapse.

As for the poll, I think it was a snapshot of the mood of the nation at the time of the Black and Tans saga. It did show how out of touch FG are with the common man on the street but I can't see it having a major impact on the election result. If FG get a hammering I'd like to think that it will be for homelessness/housing crisis that they have ignored or the billions of our money that they have been so reckless with like Irish Water, children's hospital, rural broadband etc.

Breakerz

Not really surprising. The arrogance of Flanagan, Leo, Murphy etc will cost them dearly. Every time Flanagan opens his mouth FG will lose voters. The RIC commemoration shows how out of touch the man is.

Bishop of hope

markodaly wrote: »

Social media is a cesspit of angry yobbos and idiots.
I wouldn't pay too much head into what is said there.

You're great.
What are you posting on?

Edit, not calling you any of what you posted, but is boards.ie not social media?

is_that_so

MarinersBlues wrote: »

An easier way of looking at it might be, if you account for the in built profit margin:

1/4 ~ 77% chance
5/2 ~ 22% chance

1/5 ~ 78%
3/1 ~ 20%

What is even more interesting here is that the odds imply there is a chance MM will be Taoiseach without getting the most seats and conversely there is a chance Leo won't be Taoiseach even if FG get the most seats.

Looks like FF have done better work on securing potential coalition partners.

Nobody can say whether they have or not nor for FG. That horsetrading comes after the election. No party with any hope of getting seats will use that C word until then. The FF track record is to swallow juniors partners and spit them out.
Potential partners will be aware of that and may or should drive a harder bargain.

is_that_so

Bishop of hope wrote: »

You're great.
What are you posting on?

Edit, not calling you any of what you posted, but is boards.ie not social media?

It is but we are restricted in what we can do or say. Social media tends to be shorthand for Twitter and FB, which is exactly as described.

ChikiChiki

golfball37 wrote: »

FG have made FF electable. What a waste of 9 years. Utterly depressing

Exactly and they only have themselves to blame.

McMurphy

is_that_so wrote: »

Nobody can say whether they have or not nor for FG. That horsetrading comes after the election. No party with any hope of getting seats will use that C word until then. The FF track record is to swallow juniors partners and spit them out.
Potential partners will be aware of that and may or should drive a harder bargain.

Like FG did to the labour party?

owlbethere

TheValeyard wrote: »

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

There was a lot of people angry with FF and rightly so. The banking crisis, followed by the bailout and so much more. I came around to realise that from 2008 to 2010/2011 time, that was the result of something much bigger with a lot of other countries experiencing similar problems to us. Did FF fcuking up Americas economy? The UK's? Greece's? There was a lot going on back then and it wasn't all FFs fault.

I can't stand FG because of their finger pointing to FG and their general ignorance and hypocrisy.

My local FF politician is a good person. He gets things done and he never fails to disappoint me on the rare TV appearance and interview he does. I'm not not going to vote for him because he belongs to the FF party.

ChikiChiki

markodaly wrote: »

Social media is a cesspit of angry yobbos and idiots.
I wouldn't pay too much head into what is said there.

Your aligned with party thinking anyway. This is the FG downfall. Maybe change tact a bit and some traction might be regained?

firemansam4

Sleeper12 wrote:

It depends on how long memory you want to have. Go back far enough and you will see FF created the booming economy in the first place before the collapse.

This was a false booming economy. Many people could see that things were going to turn ugly when there was a property crash.
There was a complete over reliance on the property boom to fund the country. Yet you had the leader of our country at the time telling people who were putting out these warnings that they should commit suicide...

This current FG government are arrogant and are making a complete mess of nearly everything they touch at the moment, yet they still have not matched FF in bankrupting the country as of yet.

It's just a sad indictment of politics that these 2 party's are the only
real choices we have to put into power here.

is_that_so

McMurphy wrote: »

Like FG did to the labour party?

FG and Labour will still be friends and share transfers and they are generally open to working together. That relationship trouble is always down to Labour making an ass of themselves, like Spring and Gilmore.

markodaly

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Your aligned with party thinking anyway. This is the FG downfall. Maybe change tact a bit and some traction might be regained?

Party thinking?
Oh right. Social media is a wonderful place to have a reasoned debate with enlightened and educated individuals.

markodaly

Bishop of hope wrote: »

You're great.
What are you posting on?

Edit, not calling you any of what you posted, but is boards.ie not social media?

Boards.ie is not social media.

Edgware

What should worry FG is that a lot of people wont admit to intend voting for FF so if this poll is accurate you cman add a few percentages. Also this is only the first poll but people will be influenced by it and I dont think FG has the personality to lead a fightback.
Leo does not have the common touch, Flanagan is damaged by the RIC issue and crime.
Doherty Creed. Harris and Murphy I wouldnt trust to run a birthday party.
Coveney is a decent man but he could bore for Ireland.
Noonan was a great fighter in hs day but his day is gone.

I think the need to give Michael Ring more publicity. ( so people will know that FG has Healy Rae types as well)

Muahahaha

Muahahaha wrote: »

And the Sunday Times are putting it down to them wanting to grab the Black and Tans and shake them by the hand. Leo and Charlie Flanagan seem to have made a serious political miscalculation with their planned celebrations of the Royal Ulster Constabulary


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/fine-gael-in-crisis-as-fianna-fail-jumps-to-12-point-lead-in-polls-hcbw5r26j

Its like Fine Gael have managed to win the ball but then theyve gone and stuck it into the top corner of their own net. A 12% fall in a tracking poll is unprecedented in Irish electoral politics, even allowing for the 3% margin of error Leo and pals have lost all momentum just days after he fired the starting gun.

Michael Martin now looking a dead cert to be the next Taoiseach, he is unbackable on Paddy Power at 1/4 on in a two horse race. I wouldnt mind but he hasnt even done anything, Fine Gael have literally given it to him on a plate.

Must say Id hate to be one of those many FG shills on here who have spent countless hours over the last three years defending FG and Leo and then he goes and blows his load early and serves the election up to Fianna Fail anyway. Talk about wasting your time for nothing anyway.

The 12% difference between the parties isn’t that same as a 12% drop. It’s actually a 7% drop. Huge difference.

RobAMerc

RobAMerc wrote: »

how a Michael Martin led party are at anything above 3% and a admittedly misguided RIC commemoration can make a party fall 12% shows me how immature the Irish voting public are. We deserve what we get. ( And it wont be good )

Irish politics in a nutshell, I mean goldfish bowl. It was only a decade ago that FF brought this country to its knees. It couldn't just be chronic amnesia, perhaps some members of the voting public are fond of self-immolation.