Fine Gael 'in crisis' after falling 12% in the polls

McMurphy

is_that_so wrote: »

Nobody can say whether they have or not nor for FG. That horsetrading comes after the election. No party with any hope of getting seats will use that C word until then. The FF track record is to swallow juniors partners and spit them out.
Potential partners will be aware of that and may or should drive a harder bargain.

Like FG did to the labour party?

owlbethere

TheValeyard wrote: »

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

There was a lot of people angry with FF and rightly so. The banking crisis, followed by the bailout and so much more. I came around to realise that from 2008 to 2010/2011 time, that was the result of something much bigger with a lot of other countries experiencing similar problems to us. Did FF fcuking up Americas economy? The UK's? Greece's? There was a lot going on back then and it wasn't all FFs fault.

I can't stand FG because of their finger pointing to FG and their general ignorance and hypocrisy.

My local FF politician is a good person. He gets things done and he never fails to disappoint me on the rare TV appearance and interview he does. I'm not not going to vote for him because he belongs to the FF party.

ChikiChiki

markodaly wrote: »

Social media is a cesspit of angry yobbos and idiots.
I wouldn't pay too much head into what is said there.

Your aligned with party thinking anyway. This is the FG downfall. Maybe change tact a bit and some traction might be regained?

firemansam4

Sleeper12 wrote:

It depends on how long memory you want to have. Go back far enough and you will see FF created the booming economy in the first place before the collapse.

This was a false booming economy. Many people could see that things were going to turn ugly when there was a property crash.
There was a complete over reliance on the property boom to fund the country. Yet you had the leader of our country at the time telling people who were putting out these warnings that they should commit suicide...

This current FG government are arrogant and are making a complete mess of nearly everything they touch at the moment, yet they still have not matched FF in bankrupting the country as of yet.

It's just a sad indictment of politics that these 2 party's are the only
real choices we have to put into power here.

is_that_so

McMurphy wrote: »

Like FG did to the labour party?

FG and Labour will still be friends and share transfers and they are generally open to working together. That relationship trouble is always down to Labour making an ass of themselves, like Spring and Gilmore.

markodaly

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Your aligned with party thinking anyway. This is the FG downfall. Maybe change tact a bit and some traction might be regained?

Party thinking?
Oh right. Social media is a wonderful place to have a reasoned debate with enlightened and educated individuals.

markodaly

Bishop of hope wrote: »

You're great.
What are you posting on?

Edit, not calling you any of what you posted, but is boards.ie not social media?

Boards.ie is not social media.

Edgware

What should worry FG is that a lot of people wont admit to intend voting for FF so if this poll is accurate you cman add a few percentages. Also this is only the first poll but people will be influenced by it and I dont think FG has the personality to lead a fightback.
Leo does not have the common touch, Flanagan is damaged by the RIC issue and crime.
Doherty Creed. Harris and Murphy I wouldnt trust to run a birthday party.
Coveney is a decent man but he could bore for Ireland.
Noonan was a great fighter in hs day but his day is gone.

I think the need to give Michael Ring more publicity. ( so people will know that FG has Healy Rae types as well)

Muahahaha

Muahahaha wrote: »

And the Sunday Times are putting it down to them wanting to grab the Black and Tans and shake them by the hand. Leo and Charlie Flanagan seem to have made a serious political miscalculation with their planned celebrations of the Royal Ulster Constabulary


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/fine-gael-in-crisis-as-fianna-fail-jumps-to-12-point-lead-in-polls-hcbw5r26j

Its like Fine Gael have managed to win the ball but then theyve gone and stuck it into the top corner of their own net. A 12% fall in a tracking poll is unprecedented in Irish electoral politics, even allowing for the 3% margin of error Leo and pals have lost all momentum just days after he fired the starting gun.

Michael Martin now looking a dead cert to be the next Taoiseach, he is unbackable on Paddy Power at 1/4 on in a two horse race. I wouldnt mind but he hasnt even done anything, Fine Gael have literally given it to him on a plate.

Must say Id hate to be one of those many FG shills on here who have spent countless hours over the last three years defending FG and Leo and then he goes and blows his load early and serves the election up to Fianna Fail anyway. Talk about wasting your time for nothing anyway.

The 12% difference between the parties isn’t that same as a 12% drop. It’s actually a 7% drop. Huge difference.

RobAMerc

RobAMerc wrote: »

how a Michael Martin led party are at anything above 3% and a admittedly misguided RIC commemoration can make a party fall 12% shows me how immature the Irish voting public are. We deserve what we get. ( And it wont be good )

Irish politics in a nutshell, I mean goldfish bowl. It was only a decade ago that FF brought this country to its knees. It couldn't just be chronic amnesia, perhaps some members of the voting public are fond of self-immolation.

blanch152

Fine Gael were always going into this election with everything to lose. There has been a restlessness in the country for quite a while and they were always going to have to come from behind, so this poll is hardly surprising in the sense of FG weakness, especially given the timing.

The most surprising aspect is the failure of any party other than FF and the Greens to capitalise. That is an indictment of their failure to offer anything to the Irish public other than whinging and complaining.

KWAG2019

FG deserve this poll kicking. It has been dominated by west Brits and landlords for too long but realistically that battle is over and FGZ has found its niche.

LuasSimon

Charlie Flanagan MP for Laois is some man lol

worded

TheValeyard wrote: »

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

Sure it could have been worse,
There could have been tanks in the streets
(Anyone got a link to that cartoon sketch)


FF - State of them
https://images.app.goo.gl/PgsUvmY25vTuhZMp7


https://youtu.be/3zJkdJ2I58o

tastyt

Its kinda depressing that we are now basically a 2 party country, its obvious none of the others have a realistic chance.

What exactly have FF promised to do for the country? Can't really recall what policies they are running with?

Hercule Poirot

I fear that this election will be similar to race for the Conservative leadership that was won by Theresa May in 2016 - May didn't do much in that leadership race but had the common sense to keep her mouth shut while the other candidates sabotaged themselves and each other. It was the equivalent of winning a bar fight by hiding under the table and waiting for everyone else to knock each other out.

All Martin has to do from here is put out the standard sound bytes and victory is his. The sneering attitude from FG, the disdain they've treated the HSE with and their ability to shoot themselves in the foot could see FF back in power quite easily, albeit as a coalition because I can't see them getting a full majority.

Sleeper12

firemansam4 wrote:

This was a false booming economy. Many people could see that things were going to turn ugly when there was a property crash. There was a complete over reliance on the property boom to fund the country. Yet you had the leader of our country at the time telling people who were putting out these warnings that they should commit suicide...

You haven't gone back far enough. FF sowed the seeds of the genuine booming economy of the 90s back in the late 80s. We got the name Celtic Tiger before the mid 90s because we had a booming economy by then. If fairness Alan Dukes deserves major credit to. His "Tallaght strategy" allowed FF to but through some great budgets and for the first social partnership. The social partnership stopped the "strike" culture that plagued the country through the 70s and 80s. Back at this point in time Bertie was famous for his negotiating skills. Admittedly he gave up on negotiations in the 0s when it was easier just to give whatever the unions wanted.

is_that_so

This poll support would mean only about 60 seats or so for FF so no easy coalition beckons.

Infini

tastyt wrote: »

Its kinda depressing that we are now basically a 2 party country, its obvious none of the others have a realistic chance.

What exactly have FF promised to do for the country? Can't really recall what policies they are running with?

We've always been a 2 party and a half state, partially because of party loyalty but part because the others cant come up with coherent enough policies that win over a large enough amount of people, Labour had their chance in 2011 but they got cocky and ended up shooting themselves in the foot by getting into bed with FG.

The thing about FF is that people might vote for them not becauss they've forgotten about the crash but rather its because they've ended up as the lesser of 2 evils right now, FG have been in power nearly a Decade now and on top of that it mightnt have mattered which one of then was in power at the time because ultimately it was the Bank Guarantee that sunk the state and the corrupt bankers who caused it mananged to pull a fast one on everyone.

Its ultimately the problem with elections theres no real good option the only thing you can do is select who is the least worst option at that moment in time.

Billcarson

markodaly wrote: »

Party thinking?
Oh right. Social media is a wonderful place to have a reasoned debate with enlightened and educated individuals.

Sure your better then them all. You know best fair play

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

Fine Gael were always going into this election with everything to lose. There has been a restlessness in the country for quite a while and they were always going to have to come from behind, so this poll is hardly surprising in the sense of FG weakness, especially given the timing.

The most surprising aspect is the failure of any party other than FF and the Greens to capitalise. That is an indictment of their failure to offer anything to the Irish public other than whinging and complaining.

Unsurprising though is - Sinn Fein (on the membrane as you are) have went from.

> 2011 5 seats
2011 > 14 seats
2016 > 23 seats.

I'm sure if I search hard enough I'll find your posts expressing the same optimism for the shinners rise year on year.

Idbatterim

Fg seem to have forgotten who voted them in and put them in power. It was the ones they have taken the piss out of. The early risers. Rip off rents and housing. While bending over backwards for Margaret cash and co , who would never dream of voting for fg. Shows you what cowards they are

golfball37

Where is this green wave I keep reading about? Surely sf and green figure are reversals and just a misprint??
My experience of opinion polls wrt to ff and sf. Add 3 to ff and subtract 5 from sf in terms of actual votes

Idbatterim

iebamm2580 wrote: »

Im not pro fine gael at all, im thinking of myself here and they are more than likely going to put more in my pocket then anybody else, the ric commemoration was unbelievable but that clown flanagan is a nonsense virtue signaler.

Ff already talking about all the services they want to increase, that they want workers to pay for. That they want us to forego tax cuts for. The irony that as a worker , you probably won’t benefit from these improved services anyway. Do one ! Fg are the least bad option of an appalling lot as a taxpayer. Despite being proven bull****ters.

Sierra Oscar

is_that_so wrote: »

This poll support would mean only about 60 seats or so for FF so no easy coalition beckons.

Another couple of percent and FF will be pushing 70 seats. FG took 76 seats on 36% of the vote in 2011.

golfball37

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Another couple of percent and FF will be pushing 70 seats. FG took 76 seats on 36% of the vote in 2011.

Very transfer friendly in 2011. Not sure ff are as appealing to the floating voter as fg were in 2011

Billcarson

Idbatterim wrote: »

Fg seem to have forgotten who voted them in and put them in power. It was the ones they have taken the piss out of. The early risers. Rip off rents and housing. While bending over backwards for Margaret cash and co , who would never dream of voting for fg. Shows you what cowards they are

The voters are cowards too. Scurrying back to ff. No balls .

Kivaro

Idbatterim wrote: »

Fg seem to have forgotten who voted them in and put them in power. It was the ones they have taken the piss out of. The early risers. Rip off rents and housing. While bending over backwards for Margaret cash and co , who would never dream of voting for fg. Shows you what cowards they are

And they will hopefully get their just rewards for their attitudes towards us.
As I posted on the "election" thread:

I have an extreme dislike for Fine Gael. This is due to numerous reasons including the lies they told us about looking after the early risers, their policies that are virtue signalling driven as the behest of a tiny minority in Ireland, their mismanagement of the country at a time when the economy is booming, and the biggest issue that I have with them is how detached they are from the regular people on the street. Flanagan's proposal to honour the RIC and other British occupation units is appalling, as his determination to force direct provision centres on to small under-resourced rural communities all around Ireland just shows his and Fine Gael's colleagues' disdain for us all.

My extreme dislike for Fianna Fail is 0.0000000001% less than for Fine Gael. Until there is a suitable political alternative for the majority of the country, we have very little choice.

joe40

Ivan Yates and Shane Coleman have an election podcast which I think is very good.
On the 1st one before this poll I believe he rubbished the idea of any were neck and neck. He didn't give fg a chance at all.

Sierra Oscar

golfball37 wrote: »

Very transfer friendly in 2011. Not sure ff are as appealing to the floating voter as fg were in 2011

The local elections in 2019 seem to paint a different picture. FF candidates were fairly transfer friendly, helped them pick up a whole raft of additional seats.

golfball37

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The local elections in 2019 seem to paint a different picture. FF candidates were fairly transfer friendly, helped them pick up a whole raft of additional seats.

Local elections completely different imo. This campaign will be nastier and can’t see FG voters giving them a scratch. They won’t get anywhere near 76 seats. Over 60 would be a good result and far more achievable

bunderoon

firemansam4 wrote: »

This was a false booming economy. Many people could see that things were going to turn ugly when there was a property crash.
There was a complete over reliance on the property boom to fund the country. Yet you had the leader of our country at the time telling people who were putting out these warnings that they should commit suicide...

This current FG government are arrogant and are making a complete mess of nearly everything they touch at the moment, yet they still have not matched FF in bankrupting the country as of yet.

It's just a sad indictment of politics that these 2 party's are the only
real choices we have to put into power here.

There are very very dark days ahead of us.
- We borrow way more than we can raise in taxes.
- We 'owe' 200Bn and the interest on that is 6Bn a year and only rising. Vultures will come in and take anything of value in the promise to offset some of it.

- We have an intentionally dysfunctional pulbic Health system so the private system and insurers can milk us dry.

- We have intentional incompetent public service who are not trained / qualified to manage projects successfully. Completely underscoped, over-priced, misunderstood, no legal protection in place in contracts to stop contractors gouging etc:
a) Dail Printer - Int:850K Final: 1.8M and counting.
b) Childrens Hospital - Int: 980M Final: 2Bn and counting
- In Helsinki €150M; in Copenhagen €350M - Edinburgh about €210M
c) M50 - Gov didnt know.. But ensures 1.1Bn to toll company to 2020.
d) National Broadband - Int:500M Total 3B but not final figure.
e) Port Tunnel Int: ~100M Final: 789M
f) E-Voting - Int: ? Final: 55M and never used..
g) PPARS - Int: 9M Final:130M
h) LUAS - Int: 200M Final: 778M
i) National Motorways - Int: 5.6Bn Final: 16.4Bn !!!!

There many many more of these. Havent the time to research further.
I worked in local government for a few years and even at the low level side of things, I worked alongside people who only had the LC and were processing very important data. Scary stuff.

- We have a corrupt political system where the two larges parties are really just one large party that pretends to be in opposition to each other when an election comes round. They are parasites who take as much as they can for as long as they can. They look after big business but pretend to look after us. Many many examples of that.

- Direct Foreign Investment: We rely on blue chip and medical companies to bolster our tax take. They employ hundreds of thousands. But they also pay little to no tax. It is a tight rope. When they leave, the country will be ruined.
As AI and robotics advance, many of these jobs will disappear.

- We have a massive social welfare bill. 21.2Bn will be spent in 2020!!! Why? Why are there so many recipients of job seekers, disability, single mothers (>90,000), so many on HAP. Where did we go so wrong as a society??
Because it pays more to do nothing and then qualify for the very generous free money and supplements. We also have a high percentage of people on disability. How come from 2006-2014, the number of recipients increased by 40%. I would say that we have bigger fish to fry with the bankers but 21.2Bn is a massive amount to borrow (at interest) to fund this. Social welfare should be for those who need it (and Im sure they are getting it) but not for those who can but dont improve their life situation..

There are a load more of areas where we fall down on.
But the scary part is in the near future where A.I and robots will do the majority of the work in each country leaving a large percentage of people unemployed and those who will want to work will have to fight for the small number of highly skilled positions that cannot be done by A.I at that time.
Our pension and social bill will be too big for us as a nation to handle. There is no way out of this if we keep going down the path that we are heading.

McMurphy

https://twitter.com/daithigor/status/1218824188347154432?s=19

Billcarson

McMurphy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/daithigor/status/1218824188347154432?s=19

Indeed. A country full of clowns

lawred2

joe40 wrote: »

Ivan Yates and Shane Coleman have an election podcast which I think is very good.
On the 1st one before this poll I believe he rubbished the idea of any were neck and neck. He didn't give fg a chance at all.

Link?

Sierra Oscar

golfball37 wrote: »

Local elections completely different imo. This campaign will be nastier and can’t see FG voters giving them a scratch. They won’t get anywhere near 76 seats. Over 60 would be a good result and far more achievable

You're right in fairness, completely different dynamic between local and general elections.

However I wouldn't necessarily underestimate Fianna Fáil's ability to push well into 30% of the vote and beyond if the momentum gathers behind them. This is a party that historically achieved 40% of the vote comfortably enough. Seems to me that many of the votes 'lent' to Fine Gael from Fianna Fáil over the last decade are coming home so to speak. The poll shows a direct move from Fine Gael to Fianna Fáil after all.

All the same, the poll could just as easily be an outlier. There will be more during the week so we will have to see the trend. I think it's clear Micheál Martin is having a much more effective campaign so far however. It won't suit Fianna Fáil to be under the spotlight so early in the campaign though.

Idbatterim

Kivaro wrote: »

And they will hopefully get their just rewards for their attitudes towards us.
As I posted on the "election" thread:

I have an extreme dislike for Fine Gael. This is due to numerous reasons including the lies they told us about looking after the early risers, their policies that are virtue signalling driven as the behest of a tiny minority in Ireland, their mismanagement of the country at a time when the economy is booming, and the biggest issue that I have with them is how detached they are from the regular people on the street. Flanagan's proposal to honour the RIC and other British occupation units is appalling, as his determination to force direct provision centres on to small under-resourced rural communities all around Ireland just shows his and Fine Gael's colleagues' disdain for us all.

My extreme dislike for Fianna Fail is 0.0000000001% less than for Fine Gael. Until there is a suitable political alternative for the majority of the country, we have very little choice.

Yeah. I have a slight preference for fg. Both appalling options. You have to remember though lads , switch ff for fg the last few years and you just have some of the same scandals and some different ones. I would definitely say fg are more trustworthy on not wrecking the economy again. If i voted ff and they win most seats , **** hits the fan again. Brought on by us , as if we suffer amnesia. I couldn’t deal with it. Another bust brought on my morons... in not signing up to that. Ff are more populist than fg. Ff have fooled me once , I’m not happy with fg. But when I see the weak governance fg dishes our. What’s going to happen if ff are senior party? Massive public sector pay increases, welfare increases etc. party like it’s 2006!

Arthur Daley

@ Bunderoon. You are wide awake to the risks posed anyway.
If the economy and quality of life in general was so great in Ireland right now this would be a cake walk for FG. A lot of disaffected people for one reason or another.

joe40

lawred2 wrote: »

Link?

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.newstalk.com/ge-2020/inside-track-election-2020-podcast-newstalk-950963&ved=2ahUKEwjHxu_kyY_nAhUTsXEKHYFrAEYQFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw35lys1CRq8k_j_YZFJu0x7&cshid=1579433943160

Not sure if link will work.
The podcast is called "the inside track" it is on newstalk. A Google search should get it

golfball37

Can that be got in podcast app in iPhone?

Kermit.de.frog

If the poll was correct (which I don't believe it is) we would be at the polls again in 6 months in my opinion.

tikkahunter

TheValeyard wrote: »

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

Because they are the best choice for the working people of Ireland not because people see them as some sort of Savior for the country. When you make your choice at the ballet box you choose the one that will benefit you the most .Like what is a credible alternative ? SF and the usual clowns like shouting out loud and objecting to everything but have no credible solutions. People see through their bandwagon ****e as was seen in the last set of elections. They just want to cream people that go out and work their ass off every week and give it to the ones who dont want to work.I live in a middle class area now but come from a working class area and i see what goes on there , anybody that wanted to make a good life for themselves did but you have Young ones spitting out kids to get a house ,claiming everything they can while their fellas do the same then if they dont like the house they are given they wreck it and declare themselves homeless - this practice is rampant and clogs up the system and prevents the genuine people that need help from getting it .SF facilitate that and have not a hope of delivering on any promise they are spouting out- look at the state of the North . Not many people would particularly like to vote FF but like me its the best horse to back currently.

PressRun

Would love to see FG get a kicking, but what do people think FF have been doing for the last few years to deserve getting into power? They've rubber stamped everything FG wanted to do. They had numerous opportunities to bring down the government if they had issues with the homeless crisis, HSE or any other issue, and didn't do it. They're completely complicit in almost every crisis that's happened under this government.

The poll seems to have been taken around the time of the RIC thing so that has probably coloured things, but I also don't think FG do themselves any favours with a sort of smug doubling down attitude any time they get something wrong. Leo doesn't come across well on doorsteps either, imo, while Micheal Martin thrives on electioneering.

I still expect FF will win the election even if this poll is a bit out.

is_that_so

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Another couple of percent and FF will be pushing 70 seats. FG took 76 seats on 36% of the vote in 2011.

In the notes on the poll as per Gavan Reilly Twitter feed the poll had FF at 49% in Munster. Let's not forget the likely 25%+ DK. I think it would be surprising to see anyone that high this time out.

is_that_so

joe40 wrote: »

Ivan Yates and Shane Coleman have an election podcast which I think is very good.
On the 1st one before this poll I believe he rubbished the idea of any were neck and neck. He didn't give fg a chance at all.

Ivan Yates is always right even when he's wrong and he is that often enough. Ego the size of Wexford!

Yurt2

is_that_so wrote: »

In the notes on the poll as per Gavan Reilly Twitter feed the poll had FF at 49% in Munster.

I'd well believe it. On his tours of 'the provinces' Leo looks like he's going to break out in hives at any second once he's beyond the Red Cow roundabout.

jon1981

When it comes to FG, my issue is more with Leo. He demonstrates zero empathy for real Ireland issues, shown many times in the Dail. He's soft on his own TDs and their antics, he waits until absolute public outrage before acting (Baily, Murphy).

I'm sorry but being a great taoiseach for progressive issues such as gay marriage and the abortion referendum is SIMPLY NOT enough. Alone, that will swing middle class voters in your favour but it's not enough. I'm sick of his superiority nature, he just stinks of it. I'm on board with some FG policies but I simply cannot support FG because of him.

This was appalling and a watershed moment for me

https://twitter.com/caulmick/status/1138796434080354304

Plumbthedepths

In the words of that great modern sage Nelson Muntz "Ha.......ha".

Bishop of hope

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the poll was correct (which I don't believe it is) we would be at the polls again in 6 months in my opinion.

Polls are funny things. FF would be wrong to believe this puts them in a good position.
FG would wrong to assume this is as bad as it could get or try to ignore it.
First poll of this campaign leaves everybody with food for thought, the worst thing for FG is everybody is looking at them governing and most aren't happy, so they are really the only ones who can be judged on present performance.
If you're not happy with FG, who do you turn to, FF are the obvious conclusion imo, unless you yourself the voter have a complete change of beliefs.

suicide_circus