GE2020: Kildare North

scheister · 07-02-2020 2:38pm

My prediction for the seat are

Murphy
Lawless
Martin
Durkan

I think Durkan and O'Rourke will fight for last seat but when Lawlor is eliminated he will push Durkan over the line.

Calculator123 · 07-02-2020 3:14pm

Orion wrote: »

No they don't. When someone is elected on first count all their votes are counted to apportion the #2s.

If you don't give your preferred candidate your #1 you run the risk of that candidate not getting in if too many people follow your lead.

Always vote in order of your preference. This idea of "tactical voting" does not work in PR-STV.

I didn't know that about the first count. Thanks.

So, lets say I vote Catherine Murphy number 1 but she doesn't reach the quota on first count, how would her subsequent surplus be distributed, assuming she reaches it at some point i.e. what will happen my number 2 preference?

scheister · 07-02-2020 3:24pm

Calculator123 wrote: »

I didn't know that about the first count. Thanks.

So, lets say I vote Catherine Murphy number 1 but she doesn't reach the quota on first count, how would her subsequent surplus be distributed, assuming she reaches it at some point i.e. what will happen my number 2 preference?

I will look at both options Quota is 120 vote

Option 1
Murphy polls 150 votes leaving surplus of 30. They count all the number 2's and prorata the surplus. ie Lawlor got 15 number 2's from the 150, he will get 3 votes from Murphy. tenth of vote means tenth of surplus.

Option 2
Murphy polls 110 votes on the first court. Reuna finish bottom and are elimated . On count 2 Murphy get 15 votes from Reuna. This leaves her on 125. She has exceed the quota by 5. My understanding is 5 votes are randomly selected from the 15 from Renua votes and these are distributed.

Calculator123 · 07-02-2020 3:45pm

scheister wrote: »

I will look at both options Quota is 120 vote

Option 1
Murphy polled 150 votes leaving surplus of 30. They count all the numbers and prorata the surplus. ie Lawlor got 15 number 2's from the 150 so will get 3 from Murphy. tenth of vote means tenth of surplus.

Option 2
Murphy polls 110 votes on the first court. Reuna finish bottom and are elimated . On count 2 Murphy get 15 votes from Reuna. This leaves her on 125. She has exceed the quota by 5. My understanding is 5 votes are randomly selected from the 15 from Renua votes and this are distributed.

Thanks. That makes sense. So my concern is really Option 2 occuring. Am I right in thinking my second preference would never be considered? Hence, a number 2 for Martin or Stagg, wouldn't help them in the fight for last seat.

L1011 · 07-02-2020 4:00pm

Calculator123 wrote: »

Thanks. That makes sense. So my concern is really Option 2 occuring. Am I right in thinking my second preference would never be considered? Hence, a number 2 for Martin or Stagg, wouldn't help them in the fight for last seat.

Yes; however if you want Murphy in it'll have helped her in that scenario. Your vote only elects one person (or nobody). The likelyhood that she doesn't top the poll is tiny but anything can actually happen if that's the way the voters decide.

scheister · 07-02-2020 4:09pm

Calculator123 wrote: »

Thanks. That makes sense. So my concern is really Option 2 occuring. Am I right in thinking my second preference would never be considered? Hence, a number 2 for Martin or Stagg, wouldn't help them in the fight for last seat.

pretty much if you vote Murphy, Stagg, Martin in that order as we assume Murphy is elected you vote goes no where.

If you vote Martin, Stagg and Murphy in that order you vote will only help murphy get a seat if Martin and Stagg get eliminated

L1011 · 08-02-2020 2:05am

Lawlor has so many Facebook ads that I'm seeing one every few posts. All the exact same; and all from him directly. But also Durkan ads from FG head office.

I've been around most of the constituency and it seems that the FG territory split makes no sense at all. Lawlor in Leixlip but Durkan in Maynooth and Celbridge for instance.

L1011 · 08-02-2020 3:59pm

Actually there's now Lawlor posters all over Maynooth too. So if there was any attempt at regionalising the vote it went out the window!

anewme · 08-02-2020 8:54pm

Lawlor is my local candidate. No vote from me.

Eric Cartman · 08-02-2020 10:47pm

Really hoping martin doesnt get it over the line. I dont think kildare north needs any anti commuter candidates in.

Mantis Toboggan · 08-02-2020 11:06pm

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1226265487195152385?s=09

Tomrota · 09-02-2020 12:25am

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Really hoping martin doesnt get it over the line. I dont think kildare north needs any anti commuter candidates in.

How is he anti-commuter? He’s a huge advocate of public transport which is nonexistent in north Kildare.

Seth Brundle · 09-02-2020 1:00am

Tomrota wrote: »

How is he anti-commuter? He’s a huge advocate of public transport which is nonexistent in north Kildare.

How is it non-existent? There are two rail routes and plenty if bus routes.
Whilst it should be improved, it's anything but non-existent!

Orion · 09-02-2020 7:24am

Calculator123 wrote: »

I didn't know that about the first count. Thanks.

So, lets say I vote Catherine Murphy number 1 but she doesn't reach the quota on first count, how would her subsequent surplus be distributed, assuming she reaches it at some point i.e. what will happen my number 2 preference?

Any quota on subsequent counts will most likely be small. Consider that the eliminations are people who have quite few votes and the transfers will scatter. So election on subsequent counts will be enough to just get someone over the line - not to provide a large enough surplus to make much difference after distribution*.

To get elected you must be "in the frame" after the 1st count - that means in the top 4 for a 4 seater. Only 12 TDs who got elected in 2016 came from outside that. So 1st prefs are essential for any candidate. Only notable exception to this rule is Cyprian Brady who polled less than 1000 in 2007 but Bertie's massive surplus got him in. And he was gone in 2011.

* it's also quite possible that a surplus in this situation isn't even distributed if it is too small to have any meaningful impact. There are rules around this and a small distribution can be held over to a much later count if required.

lordgoat · 09-02-2020 9:19am

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Really hoping martin doesnt get it over the line. I dont think kildare north needs any anti commuter candidates in.

Don't get this. Do you mean anti car?

Seth Brundle wrote: »

How is it non-existent? There are two rail routes and plenty if bus routes.
Whilst it should be improved, it's anything but non-existent!

Agree here, it def exists and can be improved.

Tomrota · 09-02-2020 9:44am

Seth Brundle wrote: »

How is it non-existent? There are two rail routes and plenty if bus routes.
Whilst it should be improved, it's anything but non-existent!

How do you get anywhere from Naas? There’s no public transport. A adult single costa over 6€. In every other commuter town the fare is 2.50€. The train is overcrowded and it’s impossible to find a parking space in the morning. Completely rotting infrastructure that has seen no change. The rotting public transport infrastructure in this country is directly linked to the housing crisis.

Imagine taking the 126 to Dublin and having to get a second bus, due to outrageous fares and no fare capping, it would end up costing you over 15€ a day hahahha

buffalo · 09-02-2020 9:55am

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Really hoping martin doesnt get it over the line. I dont think kildare north needs any anti commuter candidates in.

Considering how many voters are commuters, if he was actually anti-commuter (whatever that means) he wouldn't have a chance. Does he want everyone to work from home? He's going to pay everyone a UBI so we don't have to work?

I'm a commuter and I gave him a preference. Why should I not have?

anewme · 09-02-2020 10:08am

Apparently due to the storm, theres a shortage of Tally staff at Punchestown, so anyone who like to experience tallying is welcome.

Tomrota · 09-02-2020 10:09am

buffalo wrote: »

Considering how many voters are commuters, if he was actually anti-commuter (whatever that means) he wouldn't have a chance. Does he want everyone to work from home? He's going to pay everyone a UBI so we don't have to work?

I'm a commuter and I gave him a preference. Why should I not have?

Exactly. I gave him my vote also because I am unable to afford taking the bus any longer, and the trains have gotten so bad. And FG don’t give a crap about public transport. And all he’s been talking about is transforming transport infrastructure. I consider him the most pro-commuter and if he wins in Kildare north, he definitely is pro-commuter.

That N7 in the mornings is just the worst. I wish we had a Nordic/Dutch style transport system but doubt that’ll ever happen with FF/FG at the helm. Should’ve happened 30 years ago. FG love conducting feasibility studies when things have reached capacity for the last five years, rather than building the infrastructure before the houses.

Seth Brundle · 09-02-2020 10:10am

Tomrota wrote: »

How do you get anywhere from Naas? There’s no public transport. A adult single costa over 6€. In every other commuter town the fare is 2.50€. The train is overcrowded and it’s impossible to find a parking space in the morning. Completely rotting infrastructure that has seen no change. The rotting public transport infrastructure in this country is directly linked to the housing crisis.

Imagine taking the 126 to Dublin and having to get a second bus, due to outrageous fares and no fare capping, it would end up costing you over 15€ a day hahahha

You've literally confirmed my point there!

buffalo · 09-02-2020 11:05am

Updates at https://twitter.com/RTEkildareNORTH

Very very early Indications are that Reada Cronin (Sinn Fein) and Catherine Murphy (social democrats) have done well and could be in a battle to top the poll here (usual tally warnings apply)

ChikiChiki · 09-02-2020 11:38am

buffalo wrote: »

Updates at https://twitter.com/RTEkildareNORTH

Did not see any campaigning from Réada Cronin. There is a huge wave against the big two. Failure to act on health, housing and glaring mismanagement of public funds roost. Its not all about the economy.

This election will be absolutely historic

smelly sock · 09-02-2020 11:40am

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Did not see any campaigning from Réada Cronin. There is a huge wave against the big two. Failure to act on health, housing and glaring mismanagement of public funds roost. Its not all about the economy.

This election will be absolutely historic

Had her around the door.

Gave her my no 1.

#timeforchange

pad199207 · 09-02-2020 11:52am

smelly sock wrote: »

Had her around the door.

Gave her my no 1.

#timeforchange

I gave her my number 1 too. I gave her a chance.

Tomrota · 09-02-2020 11:56am

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Did not see any campaigning from Réada Cronin. There is a huge wave against the big two. Failure to act on health, housing and glaring mismanagement of public funds roost. Its not all about the economy.

This election will be absolutely historic

I don’t know how Fine Gael can call the economy good when:
People can’t afford housing in record numbers.
Record levels of people on trolleys. Dismal healthcare system. And we call ourselves a wealthy left wing country?
Complete underfunding of the prison, courts and law enforcement system. Increasing crime (especially on public transport).
Gross fiscal mismanagement with the children’s hospital.
And to top this all off we still have to sit on the M50 for four and a half hours every day and so much more.

The economy is only good in terms of figures. The Irish people don’t care for Fine Gael’s neoliberalism.

Cakes and Ale · 09-02-2020 11:57am

Would be pretty incredible that someone who lost a council seat, has a low profile, and seemed to do almost no campaigning (certainly didn't see any sight of her round my place), could be elected on the back of the Sinn Féin wave.

plibige · 09-02-2020 11:57am

Surprised as I seen very little of her. She was the last to have posters up in my area and didn't have many. And she didn't call to my door, nor did anyone else!