People like SF candidates but won't vote for SF

FrancieBrady

Fann Linn wrote: »

The greens and indos pushing on 10% each would suggest that people prepared to move away from main parties.

As Colette Browne said combined left 46% v FF/FG 42%

Yeh, seeing that emerging alright.

FrancieBrady

If this is repeated in the weekend polls, it will make a farce of RTE jumping the gun on the 'leadership debate'.

Fann Linn

It's upto the Shinners now to get the vote out next week.

Jinglejangle69

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well if it's in any way accurate, FG falling below 20 is 'mad' IMO. Never expected that tbh.
FF only on 23 seems mad too. I'd have expected them to surge on a FG fall. Need to see the detail.

Yeah it's all "mad".

James Brown

Nitrogan wrote: »

SF being elected to government is like Ireland voting for Trump?


That's harsh.


Or maybe not a problem for some.

Maybe Leo will call Clare Co Council for Mary Lou

Nitrogan

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Maybe Leo will call Clare Co Council for Mary Lou

?


I know who Leo refers to but who is Clare and what is the link to Mary Lou?

James Brown

Nitrogan wrote: »

?


I know who Leo refers to but who is Clare and what is the link to Mary Lou?

When leo called the council for Trump asking for a favour.
If you don't know these things it might explain your bemusement.

efanton

Pension funds hit amid fears property now overvalued
https://www.independent.ie/business/pension-funds-hit-amid-fears-property-now-overvalued-38912574.html

De ja vu ?

The last time the property market went snap crackle and pop did we not see the same initial indicator? Smart money and pension funds offloading assets or getting out of investment property just before everything went horribly wrong.

This is just the news that Leo and FG do not need especially if smaller funds follow suit.

If this is an initial indicator of a substantial shift in property investments, he will not need to worry about a rent freeze it will be way too late for that, he will have much bigger worries to deal with like explaining to his party supporters why they are completely broke yet again.

I hope this is just a blip because if it isn't the vulture funds and investment funds could end up going on a fire sale of the like Ireland could never imagine.

A story to watch closely, because it could be the tipping point of the election if there is significant continued revaluations of property investments.
I genuinely hope this is nothing, no matter which party you might support, its bad news.
Being able to prove government policy is wrong and has been for quite a while, is not in anybody's or any party's interest if this is a major shift by investment firms.

McMurphy

Latest polls (Times) are out.

shows a further slide for FG and SF in second - 3% error of margin - Times/Panelbase - 13% undecided

FF 23
SF 21
FG 19
Green 10
Lab 5
SD 5
SPBP 5
Rest 12

Meanwhile leo tweets this.




The penny still hasn't dropped.

Bishop of hope

Interesting poll, FG sliding all the time, no way back for them I think.
SF might be regretting not having a few more candidates now.

Fann Linn

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Interesting poll, FG sliding all the time, no way back for them I think.
SF might be regretting not having a few more candidates now.

And MM might have to do an Arlene Foster and talk with SF.

SafeSurfer

Fann Linn wrote: »

And MM might have to do an Arlene Foster and talk with SF.

Much more likely that FG will provide confidence and supply to a minority FF led government.

Edgware

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Much more likely that FG will provide confidence and supply to a minority FF led government.

I think that you are right. Keep it between themselves. Only positive side is that they can tell the independents and headbangers to **** off

SafeSurfer

Edgware wrote: »

I think that you are right. Keep it between themselves. Only positive side is that they can tell the independents and headbangers to **** off

Alternatively FF and gene pool FF independents could reach 60 seats. Meaning potential government formation with FF/Green/Labour/Independent coalition

One thing is for certain. Anyone who thinks Sinn Fein are going to be in the next government are deluded.

ricero

The young generations are waking up and abandoning the civil war politics.

The snobs, landlords and vulture funders are worried, Sinn Fein will be the majority government within the next decade.

SafeSurfer

ricero wrote: »

The young generations are waking up and abandoning the civil war politics.

The snobs are worried, Sinn Fein will be the majority government within the next decade.

Sinn Fein will not have a majority government within a decade. More delusion.

Fann Linn

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Alternatively FF and gene pool FF independents could reach 60 seats. Meaning potential government formation with FF/Green/Labour/Independent coalition

One thing is for certain. Anyone who thinks Sinn Fein are going to be in the next government are deluded.

And all the while this little dance between FF/FG continues more and more people haemorrage away to SF/Left field parties.
The downward spiral continues.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Alternatively FF and gene pool FF independents could reach 60 seats. Meaning potential government formation with FF/Green/Labour/Independent coalition

One thing is for certain. Anyone who thinks Sinn Fein are going to be in the next government are deluded.

I think Labour and the Greens would have to hold their noses too hard to do that. If it went pearshaped, 2 questions
1. Who would benefit next time out.
2. What would happen the gains Labour and the Greens have made back? Not without some pain.

Also, people are not stupid, if they give SF such a strong mandate as the polls are indicating and they are locked out of government out of spite and old animosity, do you think their vote will increase or decrease next time out, when they run candidates all over the country?

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think Labour and the Greens would have to hold their noses too hard to do that. If it went pearshaped, 2 questions
1. Who would benefit next time out.
2. What would happen the gains Labour and the Greens have made back? Not without some pain.

Also, people are not stupid, if they give SF such a strong mandate as the polls are indicating and they are locked out of government out of spite and old animosity, do you think their vote will increase or decrease next time out, when they run candidates all over the country?

The Greens have already expressed their willingness to coalesce with anyone. They are agenda driven more than ideological. They can only implement their agenda from inside government. No nose holding required just pragmatism.
Howlin is already casting himself in the role as post election facilitator. Labour will have no objection to power. Have they ever?

Sinn Fein may benefit from any potential implosion. Then again another 4 or 5 years in opposition is hardly what Sinn Fein wants. People soon get tired of a permanent opposition party shouting solutions from the side lines. Even the most sycophantic supporter may question their relevance. Present company excepted.

Bishop of hope

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Alternatively FF and gene pool FF independents could reach 60 seats. Meaning potential government formation with FF/Green/Labour/Independent coalition

One thing is for certain. Anyone who thinks Sinn Fein are going to be in the next government are deluded.

Maybe, but the times they are a changing.
Who would have thought a couple of decade ago that a combined FF/FG would possibly not be enough to form a Govt?

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The Greens have already expressed their willingness to coalesce with anyone. They are agenda driven more than ideological. They can only implement their agenda from inside government. No nose holding required just pragmatism.
Howlin is already casting himself in the role as post election facilitator. Labour will have no objection to power. Have they ever?

Sinn Fein may benefit from any potential implosion. Then again another 4 or 5 years in opposition is hardly what Sinn Fein wants. People soon get tired of a permanent opposition party shouting solutions from the side lines. Even the most sycophantic supporter may question their relevance. Present company excepted.

Doesn't look to me that people are getting 'tired' of SF, but anyway, I think you are deluding yourself a little bit if you think Labour and the Greens will be so willing to go into government again in the prevailing mood. Talk as they say is cheap.
It might be a good decision now, but the potential for utter annihilation if it goes tits up will be strong.

What happens one wonders if SF draw level or even go ahead of the two power swap party's?

Bishop of hope

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Doesn't look to me that people are getting 'tired' of SF, but anyway, I think you are deluding yourself a little bit if you think Labour and the Greens will be so willing to go into government again in the prevailing mood. Talk as they say is cheap.
It might be a good decision now, but the potential for utter annihilation if it goes tits up will be strong.

What happens one wonders if SF draw level or even go ahead of the two power swap party's?

Probably won't happen because of the pr system, transfers will be needed big time for that to happen even if SF finished with the higher percentage of first preferences.
It will be interesting to see how transfer friendly they are.

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Probably won't happen because of the pr system, transfers will be needed big time for that to happen even if SF finished with the higher percentage of first preferences.
It will be interesting to see how transfer friendly they are.

I meant in the polls actually. They have a week now to decide if stances are softened on what the public seem to be saying.

almostover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think Labour and the Greens would have to hold their noses too hard to do that. If it went pearshaped, 2 questions
1. Who would benefit next time out.
2. What would happen the gains Labour and the Greens have made back? Not without some pain.

Also, people are not stupid, if they give SF such a strong mandate as the polls are indicating and they are locked out of government out of spite and old animosity, do you think their vote will increase or decrease next time out, when they run candidates all over the country?

I would hope that the mainstream parties, FF, FG, Greens and Labour will do whatever it takes to keep SF out of government in this country. The SF take on economics is one thing but their stance on the special criminal court is a step too far for me. I see Martin Ferris is stepping back which is welcome but SF have a long way to go to distance themselves for the murderous past of some of their members. Their ard comhairle setup is sinister too. I'll only vote for parties who will explicitly rule out a coalition with SF.

Bishop of hope

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I meant in the polls actually. They have a week now to decide if stances are softened on what the public seem to be saying.

Only one poll counts really, let's see how they fare next Saturday.
I don't mean post election polls don't matter, they are a good indicator, and can cause people to change their minds.
But if they end up in first or second place with no 1s in the election, then that vote will change the whole perspective of Irish politics going forward even more.
I think they have achieved that to a certain extent even now.

ricero

almostover wrote: »

I would hope that the mainstream parties, FF, FG, Greens and Labour will do whatever it takes to keep SF out of government in this country. The SF take on economics is one thing but their stance on the special criminal court is a step too far for me. I see Martin Ferris is stepping back which is welcome but SF have a long way to go to distance themselves for the murderous past of some of their members. Their ard comhairle setup is sinister too. I'll only vote for parties who will explicitly rule out a coalition with SF.

I smell your fear. Their sinister ard comhairle which is elected live on television each year lol.

Sinn Fein will continue to rise. Embrace it.

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Only one poll counts really, let's see how they fare next Saturday.
I don't mean post election polls don't matter, they are a good indicator, and can cause people to change their minds.
But if they end up in first or second place with no 1s in the election, then that vote will change the whole perspective of Irish politics going forward even more.
I think they have achieved that to a certain extent even now.

I think the seismic shifts going on here, the power swap down to 42% and SF 2 points off the lead, so close to an election will have a huge influence on the next week.

Actually expecting it to get down and durty.

biko

According to https://ireland.isidewith.com/
I have another party first and SF as second

FrancieBrady

biko wrote: »

According to https://ireland.isidewith.com/
I have another party first and SF as second

I'm by no means a conspiracy theorist, but I would not touch that data fishing quiz with a barge poll tbh.

endainoz

That underestimated youth vote seems to be having a big effect eh?

I wouldn't be treating this poll as fact as of yet though. There's a couple more to come out this weekend isn't there? Might have a better indication.

The anti Sinn Fein crowd are scared though, it's quite funny to see.