People like SF candidates but won't vote for SF

JohnnyFlash

Are SF supporters happy with the idea of SF possibly being in government after the election, or would they prefer SF to remain an opposition party of loud righteousness and indignation?

Who would you like to see getting a ministerial position? I’d love to see Eoin O’B getting the housing ministry for example. He’s the only man in the Dáil who makes Murphs appear like a prole, but he talks a good talk and I’d like to see what he could do that hasn’t been considered before.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think Labour and the Greens would have to hold their noses too hard to do that. If it went pearshaped, 2 questions
1. Who would benefit next time out.
2. What would happen the gains Labour and the Greens have made back? Not without some pain.

Also, people are not stupid, if they give SF such a strong mandate as the polls are indicating and they are locked out of government out of spite and old animosity, do you think their vote will increase or decrease next time out, when they run candidates all over the country?

There are two flaws in your analysis.

The first is that both Labour and the Greens have expressed their willingness to enter coalition.

The second is that SF are not being locked out of government out of spite and old animosity.

The main parties are not willing to coalesce with them because their policies are completely non compatible, their leadership organization structure is questionable and any party that entered coalition with them would face a grassroots revolt, such is the level of their toxicity.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

There are two flaws in your analysis.

The first is that both Labour and the Greens have expressed their willingness to enter coalition.

That is just a pre-election position.
There will be considerations to be made depending on their final vote. My point is, if they jump into a coalition just to get the comfy seats again then that 'consideration' will be seen and punished.

The second is that SF are not being locked out of government out of spite and old animosity.

The main parties are not willing to coalesce with them because their policies are completely non compatible, their leadership organization structure is questionable and any party that entered coalition with them would face a grassroots revolt, such is the level of their toxicity.

If SF take the lead or draw level in the polls, all that goes out the window as a position.
Certainly in FF. I am far from convinced that there will not be a revolt within FF.

You could see it emerge this week even if it looks like SF are going to eclipse FG.

McMurphy

FFG have spent so much time campaigning about who won't touch the shinners the most, they've taken their eye off the ball so much, that the shinners came up the centre lane stealing born of their thunder.

It's a sight to behold tbh, they campaign against doing business with a party, and that same party campaign on the state of our health and housing situations.

Might not too late for them to let it sink in for this election, but governance of the state isn't theirs, and theirs alone. The people put the govt in power, not the other way around.

joe40

SafeSurfer wrote: »

There are two flaws in your analysis.

The first is that both Labour and the Greens have expressed their willingness to enter coalition.

The second is that SF are not being locked out of government out of spite and old animosity.

The main parties are not willing to coalesce with them because their policies are completely non compatible, their leadership organization structure is questionable and any party that entered coalition with them would face a grassroots revolt, such is the level of their toxicity.

I don't think the grassroots aversion to Sinn Fein within FF, is as strong as Michael Martin antagonism, which seems even stronger than Leo's.
Maybe Michael Martin has more to fear from a strong SF showing. The typical FG voter would never vote SF but that feeling may not be as strong among many FF supporters.
As SF move more mainstream and the troubles get further in the past FF support may be under threat from SF.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is just a pre-election position.
There will be considerations to be made depending on their final vote. My point is, if they jump into a coalition just to get the comfy seats again then that 'consideration' will be seen and punished.



If SF take the lead or draw level in the polls, all that goes out the window as a position.
Certainly in FF. I am far from convinced that there will not be a revolt within FF.

You could see it emerge this week even if it looks like SF are going to eclipse FG.

One online poll showing SF at 21% and some if their supporters are losing the run of themselves.

A proper Millward Brown poll before the 2016 election had them on 21% and they ended up getting 13.8%.



I wouldn’t be doing a Neil Kinnock on it and telling your candidates to go home to your constituencies and prepare for government.

Don’t put the socialist champagne on ice just yet.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

One online poll showing SF at 21% and some if their supporters are losing the run of themselves.

A proper Millward Brown poll before the 2016 election had them on 21% and they ended up getting 13.8%.



I wouldn’t be doing a Neil Kinnock on it and telling your candidates to go home to your constituencies and prepare for government.

Don’t put the socialist champagne on ice just yet.

We are discussing polls SS. Always to be taken with caution.

Are you not the guy/gal being dogmatic here about what might happen?

endainoz

Nobody is losing the run of themselves, except maybe the ones scared that the polls might be true.

rdwight

Fann Linn wrote: »

And MM might have to do an Arlene Foster and talk with SF.

DUP never had problem talking to SF since SF/IRA intransigence destroyed moderate unionists and paved the way into government for Paisley. Ushering that bigot, who bore a lot of responsibility for creating the conditions for the troubles, into office was not the least of SF/IRA's crimes.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We are discussing polls SS. Always to be taken with caution.

Are you not the guy/gal being dogmatic here about what might happen?

It’s not me who is being dogmatic. It’s the leaders of the two main parties. That SF supporters think they don’t really mean it is delusional.

Westernyelp

SafeSurfer wrote:

It’s not me who is being dogmatic. It’s the leaders of the two main parties. That SF supporters think they don’t really mean it is delusional.

You use that 'Delusional' word an awful lot. It may be that you are mistaken.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

It’s not me who is being dogmatic. It’s the leaders of the two main parties.

Sounds like dogma to me below.

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Sinn Fein will not have a majority government within a decade. More delusion.

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Alternatively FF and gene pool FF independents could reach 60 seats. Meaning potential government formation with FF/Green/Labour/Independent coalition

One thing is for certain. Anyone who thinks Sinn Fein are going to be in the next government are deluded.

McMurphy

I have to admit to getting a good belly laugh at this reworking of FGs anti SF tweet.

https://twitter.com/glennthefitz/status/1223527812260356096?s=19

FrancieBrady

McMurphy wrote: »

I have to admit to getting a good belly laugh at this reworking of FGs anti SF tweet.

https://twitter.com/glennthefitz/status/1223527812260356096?s=19

They are down to a putative 42% of the vote share. Everything they try on this gets thrown back in their faces...I wonder when the penny will drop with the party faithful's.

My money is on the signs of a revolt in the FF ranks this week if this polling is borne out.

Nitrogan

The minority party in a coalition government usually gets savaged at the next election and sometimes the damage goes on much longer.

They get no credit for moderating their majority partner but look useless for not delivering on their core selling points.

Sinn Fein's policies are complete nonsense no majority partner would agree to, so they'd get nothing they want but have their name attached to things which are unpopular with their own voters.

Maybe SF in government wouldn't be so bad... eh no, it would be bad very very bad. Voting for Trump or Brexit bad.

JohnnyFlash

Why are people who either support SF or desperately want some sort of change so hesitant to say whether they would like to see them in Government?

FrancieBrady

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Why are people who either support SF or desperately want some sort of change so hesitant to say whether they would like to see them in Government?

?

I am voting for them this time because I think the are ready to be in coalition.

rdwight

If Eoin O'Broin was running in my constituency I would give him some innocuous preference (I'm partial to poshboys). Same would have been true of Jonathan O'Brien (Ok, I'm also partial to a bit of rough)


The rest are poor.


McDonald has been very poor for the last two years and very lucky for the last two months. Abstaining from responsiblity in NI for three years was a disgrace. Having let public services stagnate for three years SF got so desperate to get back to Stormont before the Free State elections that they capitulated to the DUP, especially on the Irish language.


Pearse Doherty was much over praised for asking some disingenuous questions of inept insurance industry bureaucrats. If the insurance industry had, for instance, reported the Maria Bailey case to the guards as possible fraud they would have got laughed out it. Even claims reported in the media that are thrown out of court as fraudulent are never pursued by guards.


Martin Ferris and Gerry Adams are not running, but Dessie Ellis is still there. And this is only the public face of the party, there's the Ted Howells and the Gerry Kellys. Even Mary Lou is tainted in my eyes by her unnecessary affection for the Nazi collaborator Sean Russell. The de-toxification process still has a ways to go.

JohnnyFlash

FrancieBrady wrote: »

?

I am voting for them this time because I think the are ready to be in coalition.

I know you aren’t a SF supporter, Francie, but who would be your preference to go into coalition with? FF or FG?

endainoz

FrancieBrady wrote: »

?

I am voting for them this time because I think the are ready to be in coalition.

Same here, no fear from me. If they make a mess of it grand so, at least they will have got their chance.

McMurphy

rdwight wrote: »

If Eoin O'Broin was running in my constituency I would give him some innocuous preference (I'm partial to poshboys). Same would have been true of Jonathan O'Brien (Ok, I'm also partial to a bit of rough)


The rest are poor.


McDonald has been very poor for the last two years and very lucky for the last two months. Abstaining from responsiblity in NI for three years was a disgrace. Having let public services stagnate for three years SF got so desperate to get back to Stormont before the Free State elections that they capitulated to the DUP, especially on the Irish language.


Pearse Doherty was much over praised for asking some disingenuous questions of inept insurance industry bureaucrats. If the insurance industry had, for instance, reported the Maria Bailey case to the guards as possible fraud they would have got laughed out it. Even claims reported in the media that are thrown out of court as fraudulent are never pursued by guards.

How do you know?

Remember, leo held an internal report that he initially "wasn't sure" if he would show the public what it said, because "he'd have to see what the report said" - then when he seen what it said, it "exonerated everyone involved" but he couldn't show anyone because apparently their was confidentiality issues.

He actually did get laughed out of it.

rockatansky

No to Sinn Fein being the junior partner in a government.

Keep the momentum going, keep replacing the old guard with good candidates who can communicate well. They'll be the main party once the next recession rocks around.

endainoz

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I know you aren’t a SF supporter, Francie, but who would be your preference to go into coalition with? FF or FG?

If I had to choose myself Id say FF. They are supposed to be "the republican party" after all.

FrancieBrady

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I know you aren’t a SF supporter, Francie, but who would be your preference to go into coalition with? FF or FG?

Neither is a preference. Whichever one agrees to a programme of government closest to SF policy.

I think somewhere in the middle..of SF economic policy and that of the two main parties is where we need to be. With an emphasis ( a heavy one) on fairness.

My most preferred outcome is for SF on the back of an over 20% vote to build a government that doesn't include either of the 2 power swap parties.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sounds like dogma to me below.

If you think Sinn Fein or any other party will have an overall majority in the next decade I make no apology for calling you deluded and you can call me dogmatic if you want but that is just the reality.

rdwight

My main problem with SF is that the drive for a United Ireland trumps everything.

Over the last hundred years it has trumped any moral qualms about murder and terrorism, about attacks on the democratic institutions in the Irish Republic, about collaboration with Nazis and the likes of Ghaddafi and Whitey Bulger.

It has driven the cynicism behind u-turns on the bank bailout and water charges, being possibly the only socialists in the world against propery taxes, lies about only taking the Average Industrial Wage. It has also driven the hypocrisy of saying one thing in opposition in the Republic and doing otherwise in the north as regards eg corporation and property taxes, water charges and nurses pay.

There are lots of problems with the Greens but given the option between a SF party for whom a United Ireland (which demographics was always going to, and still will, deliver anyway) trumps all and a Green Party for whom the safety of our children and grandchildren is priority, I'll choose the latter

McMurphy

rdwight wrote: »

My main problem with SF is that the drive for a United Ireland trumps everything.

Over the last hundred years it has trumped any moral qualms about murder and terrorism, about attacks on the democratic institutions in the Irish Republic, about collaboration with Nazis and the likes of Ghaddafi and Whitey Bulger.

It has driven the cynicism behind u-turns on the bank bailout and water charges, being possibly the only socialists in the world against propery taxes, lies about only taking the Average Industrial Wage. It has also driven the hypocrisy of saying one thing in opposition in the Republic and doing otherwise in the north as regards eg corporation and property taxes, water charges and nurses pay.

There are lots of problems with the Greens but given the option between a SF party for whom a United Ireland (which demographics was always going to, and still will, deliver anyway) trumps all and a Green Party for whom the safety of our children and grandchildren is priority, I'll choose the latter

What would you call Leo and Simon urging the DUP and SF to sit down and get working with each other again in Stormont, while Leo and Simon are categorically ruling out working with Sinn Fein in the Dail?

Maybe have a read over your posts before hitting the submit button.

Pretty clear you aren't fussed on SF, but don't over egg the pudding with hypocritical statements like the last couple.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are down to a putative 42% of the vote share. Everything they try on this gets thrown back in their faces...I wonder when the penny will drop with the party faithful's.

My money is on the signs of a revolt in the FF ranks this week if this polling is borne out.

If you want to put your mouth where you say your money is how about if FF ranks revolt this weekend I give €10 to a homeless charity and post the receipt here and if they don’t you give a €10 donation and do the same.

It would be a ballsy move to bet on a party looking at gaining seats and becoming the majority government party revolting in the week before the election.

Of course we would have to agree on a definition of “ranks” and “revolt”.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

If you want to put your mouth where you say your money is how about if FF ranks revolt this weekend I give €10 to a homeless charity and post the receipt here and if they don’t you give a €10 donation and do the same.

It would be a ballsy move to bet on a party looking at gaining seats and becoming the majority government party revolting in the week before the election.

Of course we would have to agree on a definition of “ranks” and “revolt”.

I will pass on that. I donate per bank debit to homeless charities already. I don't need to virtue signal about it over something like this.

When I say revolt, I mean people being vocal about it. Because I am sure that any serious journalist will now start asking the question or certainly should be.

Edit: all of that is predicated on FF not surging ahead in the coming polls.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I will pass on that. I donate per bank debit to homeless charities already. I don't need to virtue signal about it over something like this.

When I say revolt, I mean people being vocal about it. Because I am sure that any serious journalist will now start asking the question or certainly should be.

Edit: all of that is predicated on FF not surging ahead in the coming polls.

No worries Frankie. I will use €10 to buy some waffles to donate on your behalf.