new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

The Rape of Lucretia

BTW : Is the corona virus 'social', or 'fun'?

Graces7

bodhrandude wrote: »

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Yep Grace I think it is reference to the 1917/18 Spanish flu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Thank you and words fail! Talk about inaccurate info!

She wrote asking why the UK did not go on lockdown and obviously meant THIS century?

4068ac1elhodqr

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

BTW : Is the corona virus 'social', or 'fun'?

? It would not appear to be a laughing matter 2,019 currently:


Maybe now's a good time to get back to those cold showers, garlic and fancy herb teas with 'immune booster' on the front box/package.

Bobblehats

May as well just blot china out

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

bodhrandude wrote: »

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Yep Grace I think it is reference to the 1917/18 Spanish flu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

That was the big one but it's still a staggering death rate every year. The Lancet medical journal of 13th December 2017 puts annual worldwide death rates at 291,000 to 649,000.
The depths in the UK that year were close to the average at 18,000, although 2013/14 saw 34,000 deaths attributed in influenza.

The Rape of Lucretia

So with there certainly no impact in Europe at the moment, and unlikely to be any that is more than a fraction of the normal winter virus, what we are really seeing is a news media, and social media, having bored of loss of Brazilian rainforest, Greta Thunberg speaches, and Aussie bush fires, needing a change of show to feed the global hunger to fill news space, have let the Corona virus prominence spiral out of all sensible proportion.

4068ac1elhodqr

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

So with there certainly no impact in Europe at the moment

Wrong (France), with many other tests underway elsewhere

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

and unlikely to be any that is more than a fraction of the normal winter virus,

Wrong (as has been explained to you numerous times now)

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

what we are really seeing is a news media, and social media, having bored of loss of Brazilian rainforest, Greta Thunberg speaches, and Aussie bush fires, needing a change of show to feed the global hunger to fill news space, have let the Corona virus prominence spiral out of all sensible proportion.

Maybe the imminent shutdown of China is all just a bit of banter? The two new hospitals (containment facilities) inside a week, event closures, and many empty streets are fake news events, something, something, global warming?

clever user name

Things are pretty quiet here. Mixture of Chinese new year and the virus means there's not many people out and about. 90% of people wearing masks and people also wearing gloves. As an example, a lot of gated apartment complexes (very common here) are not allowing delivery food drivers to enter. The province I'm in (Shaanxi) has 22 confirmed cases as of today. Small number in relation to the number of people here, but with the supposed incubation period and the ease at which people can (and do) travel to any part of China, numbers will surely rise.

Truth is, nobody here knows the true scope of how many people are actually infected. If you're to believe the news coming from locals in Wuhan, there's literally thousands of people sick. The number quoted, for Hubei, is just the number that can fit in the hospitals. Tales of sick people being sent home with a bunch of medication. Hell, there's dead bodies lying covered in hospital corridors, apparently (although there is one video of that). Again, none of this verified, though that is difficult thing to do in China in general. Anyways, a lot of scaremongering going on via WeChat. How true or valid it is, nobody knows. I will note that it's somewhat worrying when the 'President' of a country that is renowned for covering things up has publicly come out and said that the situation is 'grave'.

In the meantime, I'll be hibernating in my apartment eating and watching crap

Graces7

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html%3famp

Nó. 2017.

The source I quoted said 155 ie the Guardian.. The one you quote says flu contributed to? Not caused.

As the old saying goes, Lies. lies, damned lies and statistics

Each paper has their own agenda.

End of for me.

clever user name

clever user name wrote: »

In the meantime, I'll be hibernating in my apartment eating and watching crap

Out of curiosity, where in Shaanxi are you?

The Rape of Lucretia

Graces7 wrote: »

The source I quoted said 155 ie the Guardian.. The one you quote says flu contributed to? Not caused.

As the old saying goes, Lies. lies, damned lies and statistics

Each paper has their own agenda.

End of for me.

Leave out the papers then. The Lancet, citing numbers in the tens of thousands per year is authoritative though. So by comparison, this virus still has effectively zero impact so far. Globally. And is in the statistically insignificant category as far as virus outbreak death go.

So, correct that the impact in Europe is effectively nil. And correct that it is likely so stay that way. The Who and EU countries would already be taking much stronger action if the analysis by the experts suggested need for concern beyond the ordinary.
Its just a bit of a media story whipped up out of nothing, that reaches a sort of self sustaining momentum. Until people get tired of it, Trump is impeached, or whatever, becomes the new show in town.

Call Me Jimmy

So 10 million people are currently sitting peacefully in their homes, and the rate of new cases (which by all accounts is criminally underestimated) is doubling every day (reported another 1000 is expected in wuhan today). You can argue that there is hysterics on social media to a point, but when you patch it all together things do not bode well for the population of Wuhan. 'Grave' indeed. I wonder what the CCP will do when the people learn what the higher ups have seemingly realised.

thecretinhop

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

So 10 million people are currently sitting peacefully in their homes, and the rate of new cases (which by all accounts is criminally underestimated) is doubling every day (reported another 1000 is expected in wuhan today). You can argue that there is hysterics on social media to a point, but when you patch it all together things do not bode well for the population of Wuhan. 'Grave' indeed. I wonder what the CCP will do when the people learn what the higher ups have seemingly realised.

indeed. Chinese culture is a lot about face. by far the most worrying thing for me so far is pm saying its grave. dese guys dont lose face doing that willingly...

clever user name

Deleted User wrote: »

Out of curiosity, where in Shaanxi are you?

I'm in Xi'an.

Call Me Jimmy

thecretinhop wrote: »

indeed. Chinese culture is a lot about face. by far the most worrying thing for me so far is pm saying its grave. dese guys dont lose face doing that willingly...

Same here, I was not really taking it seriously until I saw that quote.

Dick phelan

Beijing is so quite right now. Went out for some food and almost nobody around. It would be quite during the New Year anyway but this is obviously more than usual. I've ordered some stuff as a precaution, canned foods etc just in case things get out of hand. Stopping all intercity travel is a big move but probably the right one. Company I work for said things are closed indefinitely but will h have to do some work from home I think.

Lucky I stayed in Beijing, I had planned a trip to Shanghai but cancelled last minute, lucky now or I'd be stuck there for god knows how long. Things are really being blown out of proportion most people I talk to are cautious but not really afraid, Worst situations to be in than in your house with plenty of nice food and stuff to watch.

clever user name

clever user name wrote: »

I'm in Xi'an.

Me too (back home for a holiday) Good to know.

scamalert

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

? It would not appear to be a laughing matter 2,019 currently:


Maybe now's a good time to get back to those cold showers, garlic and fancy herb teas with 'immune booster' on the front box/package.

what does that work out to 14million people in single city for 2000 that are infected ?


seems false scare to be fair, as its well treatable if noticed on time, and even here in Ireland someone suspected got tests done within hours span.


as while i get dangers that it can be transferred from person to person, but given its been out and known since last year, those numbers are still drop in the ocean.


But at the same time i dont mind the caution taken by most countries to screen people and put out warnings. at least it shows that if anything many are well aware and have contingencies in place to deal with it.


as dont buy into whole conspiracy ****e, since its not being covered up, and even Chinese themselves are implementing quarantines.

clever user name

Deleted User wrote: »

Me too (back home for a holiday) Good to know.

Nice I was back home at Christmas. Enjoy it, better than being stuck here.

thecretinhop

scamalert wrote: »

what does that work out to 14million people in single city for 2000 that are infected ?


seems false scare to be fair, as its well treatable if noticed on time, and even here in Ireland someone suspected got tests done within hours span.


as while i get dangers that it can be transferred from person to person, but given its been out and known since last year, those numbers are still drop in the ocean.


But at the same time i dont mind the caution taken by most countries to screen people and put out warnings. at least it shows that if anything many are well aware and have contingencies in place to deal with it.


as dont buy into whole conspiracy ****e, since its not being covered up, and even Chinese themselves are implementing quarantines.

the problem right now is the 14 day incubation period, and people being sick and not showing symptoms. things will either get far worse or better in the next few weeks

Larbre34

My brother in law and his family are in Shanghai for the last 10 days, visiting local family there.

He says there is a fairly rational and pragmatic attitude in that City just now, but that if the authorities there begin to tighten up on movement and reduce information flow then he will get on a plane and come home.

I've told him that he is naive to wait for that day to come, because it could be that it is no longer his choice to leave by then and that he should book a flight out asap. Am I overdoing it with that advice?

creditcarder

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

So 10 million people are currently sitting peacefully in their homes, and the rate of new cases (which by all accounts is criminally underestimated) is doubling every day (reported another 1000 is expected in wuhan today). You can argue that there is hysterics on social media to a point, but when you patch it all together things do not bode well for the population of Wuhan. 'Grave' indeed. I wonder what the CCP will do when the people learn what the higher ups have seemingly realised.

Because of the Mandate of Heaven I have a feeling that Xi is done for and another 'party' in the communist party will take over quietly.

pc7

Larbre34 wrote: »

I've told him that he is naive to wait for that day to come, because it could be that it is no longer his choice to leave by then and that he should book a flight out asap. Am I overdoing it with that advice?

I’d be getting out while he can, the fact US/UK are getting their staff out of certain regions he should go while he can. If it all turns out to be nothing he can visit again later in year

STB.

scamalert wrote: »

seems false scare to be fair, as its well treatable if noticed on time, and even here in Ireland someone suspected got tests done within hours span.

False scare! Treatable if noticed in time! Are you for real.

Despite the 14 days statement, the incubation period is actually unknown. As of a few hours ago, the Chinese Health Minister has stated that the virus can be spread before people even show symptoms. And its been out there since last month when large numbers of pneumonia cases were first reported. Can the Chinese contain it ?

clever user name

Larbre34 wrote: »

My brother in law and his family are in Shanghai for the last 10 days, visiting local family there.

He says there is a fairly rational and pragmatic attitude in that City just now, but that if the authorities there begin to tighten up on movement and reduce information flow then he will get on a plane and come home.

I've told him that he is naive to wait for that day to come, because it could be that it is no longer his choice to leave by then and that he should book a flight out asap. Am I overdoing it with that advice?

If my parents/friends were visiting, I'd tell them not to come. In saying that, I've no plans on leaving myself, and (at the moment) don't really feel worried at all. I have 3 friends who are visiting Shanghai, as it's a holiday. While I don't know anyone that is leaving, at the same time I wouldn't disagree with anyone wanting to.

megatron989

Saw people wearing masks in bray today (asian) for the first time. Probably just habit for them when this kind of thing is happening. Sensible precaution that doesn't cost anything or effect anyone in any way. Because if this blows up, if, then the day we confirm the first cases here it will be two late for most to avoid it, as you'll already have been exposed.
Sky news had footage of a doctor in a hospital screaming in panic, pretty full on. Corridors totally packed, patients everywhere. Reminded me of vincent's on a weekend.
Ignoring the alarmist news media machine for a second, if this is a glimpse behind the chinese fire wall then we may be looking at some serious sh1t. To assume everything will definitely be grand is grossly stupid.

Call Me Jimmy

megatron989 wrote: »

Sky news had footage of a doctor in a hospital screaming in panic, pretty full on. Corridors totally packed, patients everywhere. Reminded me of vincent's on a weekend.
Ignoring the alarmist news media machine for a second, if this is a glimpse behind the chinese fire wall then we may be looking at some serious sh1t. To assume everything will definitely be grand is grossly stupid.

I was wondering when the mainstream media would start covering the mountains of 'unverified' footage. The unverified footage more accurately represents the type of thing that would cause the CCP to react the way they have i.e. indiscriminately and out of complete desperation with no precedent for how it will turn out.

wakka12

A 62 year old Chinese surgeon has died from the Coronavirus
https://www.insider.com/doctor-wuhan-china-died-after-treating-coronavirus-patients-2020-1
Really sad that while most people are actively trying to avoid this new and scary disease medical staff have to face it all day every day. RIP

creditcarder

pc7 wrote: »

I’d be getting out while he can, the fact US/UK are getting their staff out of certain regions he should go while he can. If it all turns out to be nothing he can visit again later in year

It's government staff they are getting out and I am on the fence about going to the airport to be in close confines with all those people.

scamalert

STB. wrote: »

False scare! Treatable if noticed in time! Are you for real.

Despite the 14 days statement, the incubation period is actually unknown. As of a few hours ago, the Chinese Health Minister has stated that the virus can be spread before people even show symptoms. And its been out there since last month when large numbers of pneumonia cases were first reported. Can the Chinese contain it ?

thats why i said i try to ignore loonie bins and tea leaf readers, theres over half a mill people dying of flu each year dont see that mentioned and plastered on the news each day, for something that can be easily managed.

thecretinhop

five Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into "More Transmissable" Form says mayor. Grim news

Bubbaclaus

The hysteria in this thread and on social media really is hilarious.

VinLieger

scamalert wrote: »

thats why i said i try to ignore loonie bins and tea leaf readers, theres over half a mill people dying of flu each year dont see that mentioned and plastered on the news each day, for something that can be easily managed.

Those people who die from flu are in the vast majority part of at risk groups such as the elderly or immuno compromised.
So little is known about the new wuhan coronavirus that nobody can say for certain what the actual death percentage rate is yet partly due to its incubation period but also because its hard to fully trust the chiness numbers, but the 14 day incubation period makes it very serious as it can spread easily and undetected so if the death percentage is higher than say sars at 10% or even heaven forbid as high as something like mers at 35% then alot of people are going to die.

creditcarder

Interesting article



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/how-coronavirus-is-beginning-to-hit-chinas-economy.html


Man, I hope we're not going to head into an era of economicly weaponized disease warfare. I don't think this was a foreign government (unless they are idiots) or an escaped pathogen from the Wuhan centre, but I imaigne a lot of countries are watching to see how China handles this.

pc7

creditcarder wrote: »

It's government staff they are getting out and I am on the fence about going to the airport to be in close confines with all those people.

If you get sick there no help if hospital bursting, elsewhere you might have better service if they can contain it

Wibbs

creditcarder wrote: »

Interesting article



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/how-coronavirus-is-beginning-to-hit-chinas-economy.html

It is, but this part jumped out for me: Wang said about 100,000 protective suits are needed a day. A day?? That figure sounds a bit large if the official figures of a few thousand infected and under a 100 dead are true.

Dante7

Wibbs wrote: »

It is, but this part jumped out for me: Wang said about 100,000 protective suits are needed a day. A day?? That figure sounds a bit large if the official figures of a few thousand infected and under a 100 dead are true.

The R0 is estimated to be 2.5+ with a long incubation period. That's the problem. This could kill tens of millions.

bmc58

Beeping Kitchen Appliances wrote: »

Every few years we have a terrifying, apocalyptic pandemic. Will always turn out to be nothing (until it turns out to be something)

Some year it will happen and will wipe out millions of us.Natures way of balancing things.

Wibbs

Dante7 wrote: »

The R0 is estimated to be 2.5+

Christ that's a high figure if it turns out to be true. :eek:

screamer

Funny how all these deadly mass wiper outers come from the most populated regions. When people eat things they shouldn’t or shouldn’t need to, this happens. I definitely value knowing where my food originates from and that we have good quality and hygiene standards.
As for this virus, once it gets here, it’ll take out a few hundred or thousand, it’s too virulent so even though it doesn’t kill as many percentage wise, it’ll infect more and therefore kill more.

Dante7

Wibbs wrote: »

Christ that's a high figure if it turns out to be true. :eek:

Initially it was mapped at 3.8, but was downgraded to 2.5. Latest estimate is 2.6.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905?s=19

voldejoie

Is there any official information on the onset of symptoms? Watching Channel 4 news at the moment and someone was saying that the sore throat, runny nose and sneezing that is so characteristic of a normal cold or flu aren't strong features of this virus, which might help stop it spreading a little bit, but also that the incubation period could be as high as 10 days

Also found out today that my company is shutting down the Hong Kong office indefinitely. I haven't heard whether there have been any confirmed cases there yet, but definitely a sign that the risk is being taken very seriously.

Quantum Erasure

Wibbs wrote: »

It is, but this part jumped out for me: Wang said about 100,000 protective suits are needed a day.

I presume these are disposable suits that you'd change when moving from one patient to another, or between wards at least. I don't know how many of those a single nurse would go through?

Graces7

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Leave out the papers then. The Lancet, citing numbers in the tens of thousands per year is authoritative though. So by comparison, this virus still has effectively zero impact so far. Globally. And is in the statistically insignificant category as far as virus outbreak death go.

So, correct that the impact in Europe is effectively nil. And correct that it is likely so stay that way. The Who and EU countries would already be taking much stronger action if the analysis by the experts suggested need for concern beyond the ordinary.
Its just a bit of a media story whipped up out of nothing, that reaches a sort of self sustaining momentum. Until people get tired of it, Trump is impeached, or whatever, becomes the new show in town.

Oh what a lack of humanity your post displays. So many dead and dying, so many sick … NIMBYism at its very shocking and insouciant best .

1641

There must be a risk that this virus might cross-breed, or "recombine", with exiting viruses, such as seasonal flu. This would potentially make it even more dangerous.

thecretinhop

some very good news, in bejing aids meds seem to be having a postive affect on it, too soon to know but i will take any good news..

Dante7

thecretinhop wrote: »

some very good news, in bejing aids meds seem to be having a postive affect on it, too soon to know but i will take any good news..

Yep. Reports that HIV treatments are effective. Chi-ching!

Wibbs

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

I presume these are disposable suits that you'd change when moving from one patient to another, or between wards at least. I don't know how many of those a single nurse would go through?

Well they'd change after a shift maybe, not between patients. That would be far too time consuming and cumbersome.

1641 wrote: »

There must be a risk that this virus might cross-breed, or "recombine", with exiting viruses, such as seasonal flu. This would potentially make it even more dangerous.

It can't really crossbreed. Flu and this type of virus are different IIRC. Again IIRC the problem with this particular type is a more rapid mutation rate. That can go either way. It can get more deadly, though that kills off the hosts too quickly, or it can become more mild, spreading further. Though there seems to be all sorts of supposition about it becoming more deadly, the info is pretty thin on the ground so far.

Graces7 wrote: »

Oh what a lack of humanity your post displays. So many dead and dying, so many sick … NIMBYism at its very shocking and insouciant best .

Outside of your usual tiresome homespun crawthumping rhetoric the very idea and implementation of quarantine came about because of what you're calling "NIMBYism" and without it mankind would have been more screwed by contagions than it already has been.

Snow Garden

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

The hysteria in this thread and on social media really is hilarious.

What puzzles me the most is that people don't learn from it. They'll do the exact same for the next SARS/MERS/Swine/Bird crisis.

Cheerful Spring2

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I was wondering when the mainstream media would start covering the mountains of 'unverified' footage. The unverified footage more accurately represents the type of thing that would cause the CCP to react the way they have i.e. indiscriminately and out of complete desperation with no precedent for how it will turn out.

People can view the Chinese traffics signs and shops signs on video and can see the region in China. Most of the videos are from Wuhan. Medical staff walking around in their biohazard suits, picking up people, are suffering is not normal! 

Fact people visited Wuhan and came back to their home states are now showing signs of the virus, for me is clear evidence the pathogen highly contagious. You could be around someone with a cold, but still doesn't mean you get it from them.

You can't trust China government, as the media organized to stop real disclosure.

 I think 2000 infected plus very low number, if the virus infecting visitors who are coming back home from this province in China. What the chance they all where touched by the people with the virus in same location? It probably everywhere now in Wuhan.

I would not panic and slump with fear. We need to receive the official numbers and breakdown of ages and health status condition of people who critical condition and have died, to get a true understanding of this virus. I would down downplay a virus that can kill people in days and can be passed on fast.

Its not "twelve Monkeys" type scenario to lose sleep over though, but who would like a virus? Reasonable for people to be concerned about it getting out and coming to Europe.