new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

fritzelly

josip wrote: »

They've really f***ed up with their handling of the cruise ship.
How long before the passengers revolt and try to escape the experiment.
Are they locked in their cabins or simply 'confined' ?

Last I heard they were allowed out in groups to try and minimize the spread - make sense of that how you like when they are going to the same places as other infected. They should have had separate areas for them to go to
Obviously it's likely they will all end up contracting it at some point at this rate
The cabins (from the guests reporting) have no windows but their own air supply - I'd have cabin fever by now if I was them

fritzelly

BloodBath wrote: »

Based on completely flawed mathmatics as I have already pointed out.

They have no idea of the number of unconfirmed cases which is always going to be a lot higher than the confirmed ones.

How about comparing 2 numbers we do have access to. Mortality rate for those hospitalised with flu vs corona virus.

No one is going to know the real rate for months to come - they are just using modelling based on experience as to what it would likely be
Even with the flu there is a massive number that are never part of the numbers - they just use projections. The death rate of flu could in actual fact be 0.001% - we don't all report in that we have flu for a 100% reporting

fritzelly

Japan's Quarantine Officer (newly diagnosed) likely caught the virus from the same ship

tuxy

So that increases the chance of it being airborne.
I can't think of how it would still be spreading like that without going through the air vents.

BloodBath

fritzelly wrote: »

No one is going to know the real rate for months to come - they are just using modelling based on experience as to what it would likely be
Even with the flu there is a massive number that are never part of the numbers - they just use projections. The death rate of flu could in actual fact be 0.001% - we don't all report in that we have flu for a 100% reporting

That's all fine and dandy but maybe people should stop saying blatantly false crap like anywhere near 20% death rate or 200 times deadlier than the flu then.

Only adding to the scaremongering.

wakka12

BloodBath wrote: »

Based on completely flawed mathmatics as I have already pointed out.

They have no idea of the number of unconfirmed cases which is always going to be a lot higher than the confirmed ones.

How about comparing 2 numbers we do have access to. Mortality rate for those hospitalised with flu vs corona virus.

They are disease experts who know a lot more than you do, do you not think theyve foreseen this issue?Or used other historical precedent situations to help them estimate? I'm sure there are other means of prediction they have tapped into to come to this proposed figure, I think youll have to give them a bit more credit if you think they calculated based on simply dividing the total deaths by lab confirmed cases

BloodBath

wakka12 wrote: »

They are disease experts who know a lot more than you do, do you not think theyve foreseen this issue? I'm sure there are other means they have tapped into to come to this proposed figure

Like what? It's simple mathematics that they should be able to back up with figures. You know? Facts? Not opinions.

This is the problem with the world. Nobody questions anything. Someone else will do the thinking for you I guess?

It's mainly the people on this thread I'm challenging that are throwing around false figures.

fritzelly

tuxy wrote: »

So that increases the chance of it being airborne.
I can't think of how it would still be spreading like that without going through the air vents.

Talking about the ship? I would have assumed he wasn't going round shaking their hands?
No proof he caught it there but a big coincidence do you not think?

wakka12

BloodBath wrote: »

Like what? It's simple mathematics that they should be able to back up with figures. You know? Facts? Not opinions.

This is the problem with the world. Nobody questions anything. Someone else will do the thinking for you I guess?

Well Ill trust the WHO and CDC to do the thinking on this one over a random boards user, yes sorry. It's not simple mathematics at all, I'm sure theyve exmained the virus, how it spreads, how likely it is to have spread throughout the country, how widespread it is likely to be, compating with historical flu patterns and observing spikes, the age demographic and health of those hospitalised, and estimating how this would affect the rest of the healthy populatiojn, and probably countless other factors have been combined and included to come to the estimated figure of 2%. Seriously, there are a lot of incredibly learned and experienced people trying very hard to work this out, 2% is a commonly cited figure, theyre not all coming to by spending all day dividing the apparent death rate by lab confirmations

BloodBath

wakka12 wrote: »

Well Ill trust the WHO and CDC to do the thinking on this one over a random boards user, yes sorry. It's not simple mathematics at all, I'm sure theyve exmained the virus, how it spreads, how likely it is to have spread throughout the country, how widespread it is likely to be, compating with historical flu patterns and observing spikes, and probably countless other factors have been combined and included to come to the estimated figure of 2%. Seriously, there are a lot of incredibly learned and experienced people trying very hard to work this out, 2% is a commonly cited figure, theyre not all coming to by spending all day dividing the apparent death rate by lab confirmations

It's not an estimated figure. It's a figure that comes from known confirmed cases and the mortality rate for them.

As I've pointed out on numerous occasions this figure can not possibly be remotely accurate as the unconfirmed cases should far outnumber the confirmed ones.

People are using this 2% and comparing it to flu mortality to come up with ridiculous figures like 200 times deadlier.

I'm not saying it's less or equally deadly as the flu but it's nowhere near 200 times deadlier. Maybe twice at best.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

elgicko

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not an estimated figure. It's a figure that comes from known confirmed cases and the mortality rate for them.

As I've pointed out on numerous occasions this figure can not possibly be remotely accurate as the unconfirmed cases should far outnumber the confirmed ones.

People are using this 2% and comparing it to flu mortality to come up with ridiculous figures like 200 times deadlier.

I'm not saying it's less or equally deadly as the flu but it's nowhere near 200 times deadlier. Maybe twice at best.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

What is 2/.01?

wakka12

Well the Japanese ship will give a very accurate outcome rate once and for all. Almost 200 infected on it now, with probably many more, a very reliable and sizeable sample size.

Kermit.de.frog

Japan closes entry to the country for Chinese citizens from Zhejiang.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227380102545264640

wakka12

Anyway it certainly is more deadly than the flu. The number of deaths from coronavirus in the last 4 weeks exceeds the average number of flu deaths youd expect in an area the size of hubei in that time frame in an average winter month, by a significant margin at this stage.

BloodBath

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

What is 2/.01?

How many times do I have to say it. They are not figures you can compare as the unconfirmed cases of corona that recover at home are not taken into account.

The figures we do know are mortality rate for hospitalised cases of flu vs hospitalised cases or corona virus.

It's around 10% for flu and 20% for corona hence the twice as deadly opinion.

Serious comprehension problems in here.

SeaBreezes

tuxy wrote: »

10 days since the first case on that ship, what's the fatality rate on that ship so far?

Ship is only quarantined since Feb 4th?

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

Well the Japanese ship will give a very accurate outcome rate once and for all. Almost 200 infected on it now, with probably many more, a very reliable and sizeable sample size.[/QUOTE

Next few days will be interesting to see if any milder symptoms turn more serious as we hit week 2 for those infected

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

How many times do I have to say it. They are not figures you can compare as the unconfirmed cases of corona that recover at home are not taken into account.

The figures we do know are mortality rate for hospitalised cases of flu vs hospitalised cases or corona virus.

It's around 10% for flu and 20% for corona hence the twice as deadly opinion.

Serious comprehension problems in here.

You can use whatever figures make you happy.

However, I’ll go with the official figures from the experts. No harm done.

SeaBreezes

laurah591 wrote: »

wakka12 wrote: »

Well the Japanese ship will give a very accurate outcome rate once and for all. Almost 200 infected on it now, with probably many more, a very reliable and sizeable sample size.[/QUOTE

Next few days will be interesting to see if any milder symptoms turn more serious as we hit week 2 for those infected

God love them, what a horrific situation to be in.

BloodBath

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

You can use whatever figures make you happy.

However, I’ll go with the official figures from the experts. No harm done.

I'm sure their figures are right. It's your interpretation of them that is wrong.

Saying stuff like this proves you have no idea what you are talking about.

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Currently 250 times higher than flu.



r/Coronavirus

tuxy

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ship is only quarantined since Feb 4th?

Yes, my mistaken.
Also a cruise ship has a number of elderly people and many cabins with no windows so recirculated air.

fritzelly

tuxy wrote: »

Yes, my mistaken.
Also a cruise ship has a number of elderly people and many cabins with no windows so recirculated air.

They've confirmed the air is not recycled - they all have fresh air

cnocbui

How about the Japanese end this psychopathic experiment and get the people off the ship and into a humane quarantine camp. It's a death trap. I said this days ago.

Kermit.de.frog

Figures made even more unreliable than they already were with China changing the criteria for confirmed cases. From the Guardian

We have to treat the new cases with a dose of scepticism as Chinese authorities appeared yesterday to change the way these were counted. Previously anyone diagnosed with the virus was included as a new case, but from now on only people with symptoms of the infection are included in the number.

CCP strong!

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

I'm sure their figures are right. It's your interpretation of them that is wrong.

Saying stuff like this proves you have no idea what you are talking about.

You’re right. Happy now?

WHO influenza death rate= 0.01%
WHO Coronavirus death rate= 2%

But you’re right.

BloodBath

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

You’re right. Happy now?

WHO influenza death rate= 0.01%
WHO Coronavirus death rate= 2%

But you’re right.

Explained it the best I can. Sorry that you can't comprehend it.

Are you playing the character of Dougal as well?

If it was 250 times deadlier than the flu then every single person admitted to hospital with it would be dead considering 10% of flu hospital cases result in death. It's 20% for corona. Dispute these figures. How do you turn twice as deadly by known variables into 250. Oh yes by comparing 2 variables that do not correspond to each other at all.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/EvKossev/status/1226316298663190529


Go CCP go! Math is strong in them.

bodhrandude

An interesting look at the cruise ship in Japan, this is before the 39 people added from today but some interesting videos from the people being quarantined on the ship.

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21132732/coronavirus-cruise-ship-quarantine-japan

cnocbui

fritzelly wrote: »

Last I heard they were allowed out in groups to try and minimize the spread - make sense of that how you like when they are going to the same places as other infected. They should have had separate areas for them to go to
Obviously it's likely they will all end up contracting it at some point at this rate
The cabins (from the guests reporting) have no windows but their own air supply - I'd have cabin fever by now if I was them

I would think it could well be being spread by the crew.

The cook, one of 1,035 crew members aboard the ship, said that his day starts at 6:15 a.m. and that he works all day cooking meals for passengers, who are largely confined to their cabins, with limited opportunities to exercise.

By contrast, the crew members eat in the same mess, use the same plates and share the same toilets. “Five dining waiters have already tested positive,” he said. “How will we not get affected?”

Japan’s Heath Ministry said Tuesday that 10 crew members were among the 135 people who have tested positive for the virus

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/i-am-stuck-here-virus-fears-grow-among-crew-of-quarantined-ship-diamond-princess/

tuxy

Has anyone mentioned that one of the two men that tested positive for the virus in the British prison was transferred from a Thai prison very recently?
Explains how it happened but creates more questions.

fritzelly

tuxy wrote: »

Has anyone mentioned that one of the two men that tested positive for the virus in the British prison was transferred from a Thai prison very recently?
Explains how it happened but creates more questions.

Bar one online news site (Daily Mail) they have not tested positive

bodhrandude

tuxy wrote: »

Has anyone mentioned that one of the two men that tested positive for the virus in the British prison was transferred from a Thai prison very recently?
Explains how it happened but creates more questions.

My house mate is returning from Thailand on Sunday night and collects his dog on Monday, I hope everything goes OK Hahaha. :eek:

anto9

tuxy wrote: »

Has anyone mentioned that one of the two men that tested positive for the virus in the British prison was transferred from a Thai prison very recently?
Explains how it happened but creates more questions.

Both have been tested ,(Daily Mail ) but no results in yet .If anyone knows different please give a link as this is of great interest to me .

wakka12

4 passengers from the Japanese ship who tested positive are now in serious conditions, on ventilator/ICU

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f2igzy/japanese_health_minister_katsunobu_kato_out_of_53/

I hear that they are apparently not going to test everyone on board, just those who show symptoms. This seems crazy, as there is an opportunity to accurately assess the danger of the virus now.

4068ac1elhodqr

anto9 wrote: »

Both have been tested ,(Daily Mail ) but no results in yet .If anyone knows different please give a link as this is of great interest to me .

Both positive: https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-in-the-uk-prisoners-test-positive-hmp-bullingdon-oxfordshire-1474438
Wonder if he starred in those crime tv shows e.g. Banged up in... Bangkok/Abroad.

Meanwhile the USMil approves x11 camps for upto 1,000 across the country. On the flip side, they have relased 195 from the previous Cali quarantine. If any catch it later in this month, the 14days period may need extended.

gozunda

As of the 10th Beijing authorities issued an "Outbreak Prevention and Control Notice Strict Closed Management of Residential Communities", announcing Beijing a "closed city" state.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3873964

And yet the WHO and Chinese government still maintain that any restrictions on travel from / to China is not required?

Elsewhere the Westerdam Cruise ship is still not being allowed to dock - although it has no confirmed cases of Coronovirus

The Philippine government have also forced plane to return to Taiwan in a new ban on flights from there.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874867.

**** is getting serious...

bb12

wakka12 wrote: »

4 passengers from the Japanese ship who tested positive are now in serious conditions, on ventilator/ICU

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f2igzy/japanese_health_minister_katsunobu_kato_out_of_53/

I hear that they are apparently not going to test everyone on board, just those who show symptoms. This seems crazy, as there is an opportunity to accurately assess the danger of the virus now.

4 severely ill out of 39 positives indicates a 10% rate of those who catch this needing intensive treatment such as oxygen, ventilator etc...that seems to correspond to a lot of the research paper numbers being put forward in last few days...so out of every 10,000 confirmed cases about 1000 will need some form of intensive care...that will put some serious strain on any health system

tuxy

bb12 wrote: »

4 severely ill out of 39 positives indicates a 10% rate of those who catch this needing intensive treatment such as oxygen, ventilator etc...that seems to correspond to a lot of the research paper numbers being put forward in last few days...so out of every 10,000 confirmed cases about 1000 will need some form of intensive care...that will put some serious strain on any health system

174 positive, 4 critical.
And dealing with a group that are much older than the average age of the general population.

bb12

tuxy wrote: »

174 positive, 4 critical.

at the time the above article was posted there were only 39 positives.

Kermit.de.frog

gozunda wrote: »

As of the 10th Beijing authorities issued an "Outbreak Prevention and Control Notice Strict Closed Management of Residential Communities", announcing Beijing a "closed city" state.

The consequences of Beijing or Shanghai having to go through the horrific situation in Wuhan would be extremely serious for China and the global economy.

They'll do everything at all cost to prevent that. They have no choice.

tuxy

bb12 wrote: »

at the time the above article was posted there were only 39 positives.

No 39 new cases, 174 total positive.

laurah591

bb12 wrote: »

4 severely ill out of 39 positives indicates a 10% rate of those who catch this needing intensive treatment such as oxygen, ventilator etc...that seems to correspond to a lot of the research paper numbers being put forward in last few days...so out of every 10,000 confirmed cases about 1000 will need some form of intensive care...that will put some serious strain on any health system

My reading on that is its 4 out of the 175 odd, so a 2.2% risk of serious condition (Subject to change) as opposed to 10%

bb12

tuxy wrote: »

No 39 new cases, 174 total positive.

ah my fault. i misread. will be interesting to see how many of the other positives will need oxygen over the next few days

bb12

bb12 wrote: »

ah my fault. i misread. will be interesting to see how many of the other positives will need oxygen over the next few days

From what I am reading it seems that quite a large proportion symptomatic people actually do need some supplemental oxygen as the O2 sats fall. That normally means hospitalisation in an isolation room or with others who are known positive. In 1918 people had a more fatalistic outlook anyway as life expectancy was much less, people just laid in their beds until they got better or died. Now we have an expectation of as much medical intervention as can be mustered to keep ourselves alive. Sadly in a pandemic situation we just don’t have enough resources to attempt to save the maximum possible amount of people.

bodhrandude

RTE have reported last night that there was 65 unconfirmed cases that have proven to be negative so far.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0211/1114493-coronavirus/

Kermit.de.frog

Ireland has banned state agency staff from returning home from China.

ardinn

Deleted User wrote: »

From what I am reading it seems that quite a large proportion symptomatic people actually do need some supplemental oxygen as the O2 sats fall. That normally means hospitalisation in an isolation room or with others who are known positive. In 1918 people had a more fatalistic outlook anyway as life expectancy was much less, people just laid in their beds until they got better or died. Now we have an expectation of as much medical intervention as can be mustered to keep ourselves alive. Sadly in a pandemic situation we just don’t have enough resources to attempt to save the maximum possible amount of people.

Oxygen seems to be the problem.

Im pretty sure you could treat this fully at home if oxygen was available, I have looked into getting it, but its restricted. About 1-2litres per min seems like the norm, but 5 for ncov has been recorded.

This will be what kills people in developed countries, the lack of oxygen facilities.

It's the single most important part of the probelm, If I was in government i would be making sure we have huge supplies and its available on delivery to homes, you can monitor your blood oxygen fairly accurately with a blood pressure monitor. 3 days and you should be good to go again.

However dificult this would be to implement, its what should be happening if the government are serious about treating it. It would take a huge strain from the hospitals.

This thread is a farce. The person who posted their made up death rate of 19% earlier should be banned from the thread, would be arrested in China, and would be fined in Vietnam, and for good reason.

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

This thread is a farce. The person who posted their made up death rate of 19% earlier should be banned from the thread, would be arrested in China, and would be fined in Vietnam, and for good reason.

Do you believe the Chinese Communist Party?

Even the "stats" they have they have fiddled now because they, alone, have decided the criteria. We all know the figures are total bs and it is far worse than we are told.

And with good reason for them.

Why the rest of the world should buy it is beyond me.