new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12

4 patients in Hong Kong now critical, 2 now serious. Yesterday all were stable. Combined with 6 new critical cases internationally also. Is a large increase outside China in one day. If the the number of cases outside China are as accurate as is it is to believed then it is certainly considerably more dangerous than flu and is hospitalising at least one in every 25 patients rather than around one in every 100 for flu.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

hurikane

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

When would it become a pandemic?

wakka12

hurikane wrote: »

When would it become a pandemic?

Sustained local transmission on two continents simultaneously I think. Probably more to the definition but thats the gist of it

cameramonkey

hurikane wrote: »

When would it become a pandemic?

https://www.infoplease.com/askeds/pandemic-vs-epidemic

igCorcaigh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A lot of the base materials for medicines are sourced in China.

https://twitter.com/FluTrackers/status/1227692170548826113?s=19

https://twitter.com/FluTrackers/status/1227695500268363778?s=19

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

Doesn't help when they were sending out faulty test kits to the US states and 30 other countries

creditcarder

Deleted User wrote: »

Ten thousand people locked down just 25 miles away. Was hoping this week would be less dramatic so I could go back to work next week.

christ, i was planning on going to vietnam in april.

edit; what do you think about the government stipend btw?

edit2; those poor teachers who live month to month. that is seriously rough.

igCorcaigh

wakka12 wrote: »

4 patients in Hong Kong now critical, 2 now serious. Yesterday all were stable. Combined with 6 new critical cases internationally also. Is a large increase outside China in one day. If the the number of cases outside China are as accurate as is it is to believed then it is certainly considerably more dangerous than flu and is hospitalising at least one in every 25 patients rather than around one in every 100 for flu.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Interesting.

Hong Kong has 50 reported cases, but 4 critical.

The estimate of serious cases was or is around 18%

I'd like to see info on long it took for patients to move from detected to deceased. Sounds grim, I know, but just wondering on how the time lag could inform us on how dangerous this is.

BanditLuke

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

Quick email them and tell them it's fine and they are over reacting according to some knowledgable posters on boards.

s7ryf3925pivug

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

We expect our current strategy to fail. When it fails, we will change our strategy.

That means they want to implement stronger measures but don't have the political capital to do so until things get worse.

Ms2011

Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

bb12

The coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, Dr. Sylvie Briand, head of WHO’s Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, told reporters on Monday. About 15% of the people who contract the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care, she said.


more confirmation of the stats being thrown around at the moment...so if 10,000 become infected, 1500 are gonna need oxygen support with 45-75 of those needing intensive care...from experience i know that beaumont hospital has 10 beds in the icu with a further overflow of 10 i believe. icu beds, around dublin at least, could be filled up very quickly without even taking into consideration normal every day emergencies...

wakka12

Ms2011 wrote: »

Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

Any, diabetes was specifically mentioned for example, and also several unhealthy lifestyle factors such as smoking, being obese, and drinking a lot of alcohol are considered in the same way.

igCorcaigh

Ms2011 wrote: »

Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

High blood pressure and diabetes were reported.

I don't know if thats because these conditions are more common in the elderly, or if they have a role in outcome.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ten thousand people locked down just 25 miles away. Was hoping this week would be less dramatic so I could go back to work next week.

Stay safe Google

wakka12

igCorcaigh wrote: »

High blood pressure and diabetes were reported.

I don't know if thats because these conditions are more common in the elderly, or if they have a role in outcome.

I was wondering the same. Because I cant personally see or understand why diabetes would put you at greater risk of dying of pneumonia but I dont know much about it.

igCorcaigh

wakka12 wrote: »

Any, diabetes was specifically mentioned for example, and also several unhealthy lifestyle factors such as smoking, being obese, and drinking a lot of alcohol are considered in the same way.

That's me done for then

creditcarder

creditcarder wrote: »

edit; what do you think about the government stipend btw?

Don't have much of an opinion on the stipend. It's not much but it is easily enough to eat. $35,000+/day is no joke for a relatively poor country. The government saying they'll pay all costs for anyone getting the virus is good I suppose.

igCorcaigh

wakka12 wrote: »

I was wondering the same. Because I cant personally see or understand why diabetes would put you at greater risk of dying of pneumonia but I dont know much about it.

So, I've heard that increased sugar in the blood can interfere with oxygen supply in the air sacs. Could be speculative. I'm not an expert.

Air sacs = alveoli in the lungs. In viral pneumonia, they fill with fluid, stopping their function.

This is because the cells that line these tiny air sacs get destroyed by the virus, or the body's reaction to the virus, so they get filled with holes, and get leaky. So they fill with fluid.

Any other process that depletes the supply of oxygen to the body will contribute to this process

For example, having high blood pressure will force more fluid in to the air sacs. Making them more leaky, more water gets in. And that blocks oxygen getting in to the blood. Without oxygen, your organs start to fail.

One of the methods to treat this condition is to pump blood from the body through an external machine, which puts oxygen into the blood, and then pumps the blood back into you. Essentially, doing the job of the lungs.

gozunda

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm a bit reassured that we haven't seen chains of sustained h2h, seems to be a few superspreaders from Asia, but transmission then seems to stop.Next couple of weeks should tell a lot.

This from the tweet linked earlier. I've seen the similar modeling elsewhere.

Regarding spread of the disease

About six weeks ago, China was reporting on the first 41 cases of confirmed #coronavirus in that country. Singapore and Hong Kong have now each hit 50 cases. Modeling suggests that the time from first introduction to epidemic spread is about 10* weeks.

*I would suggest that might be less - the Chinese goverment was initially slow to acknowledge what medical personnel were telling them.

Regarding the progression of the disease in people - there seems to be a lag time of approx 3 weeks (low estimate) between infection- recovery or else progression to severe symptoms.

wakka12

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's me done for then

Ah I'm sure youll be fine. Being over 60 appears to be the greatest risk factor. The majority of people in the world have an 'underlying condition' , an unhealthy lifestyle, and often both and still the vast majority who caught the virus have survived. It just increases your chances a bit of having complications

Ms2011

Hmmm, have an autoimmune disease myself so my immune system is already prone to be a bit hyper, though I'm not on any immunosupressents at the moment. Bit concerned how I would deal with something like this.

ceadaoin.

fritzelly wrote: »

It's China round 2

Is it though? If only china had started the quarantine after only 5 cases. Seems like theres more chance of countries getting it under control sooner when measures like that are implemented quickly.

josip

Flying via Frankfurt on Friday and coming back 10 days later.
Not overly concerned about that, but I'll be taking reasonable precautions.

Everything booked to go see Messi for the first time in Barcelona in April.
Up to now injury had been my main concern
At least MWC has been cancelled, but will have to decide closer to the time if it's too risky.

BanditLuke

Ms2011 wrote: »

Hmmm, have an autoimmune disease myself so my immune system is already prone to be a bit hyper, though I'm not on any immunosupressents at the moment. Bit concerned how I would deal with something like this.

Sorry to hear that. A lot of people are concerned and worried. Self isolation will be the best way to deal with it for many but won't be possible for some.

My parent's for example are both elderly and I've got them the necessary equipment to deal with an extended stay in the home as well as food supplies. The way I see it is why take a chance if nothing happens great but if not they'll use the food stuffs and the masks etc...cost very little two weeks ago when I got them so no loss.

Unfortunately like a lot of experts have being saying for weeks now its not the condition that's going to be the problem its health care systems inability to deal with the numbers that will be sick that is the problem.

givyjoe

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Is it though? If only china had started the quarantine after only 5 cases. Seems like theres more chance of countries getting it under control sooner when measures like that are implemented quickly.

Except there is no chance of any other country (except north Korea) will adopt, or adhere to, such measures.

GooglePlus

givyjoe wrote: »

Except there is no chance of any other country (except north Korea) will adopt, or adhere to, such measures.

They only had to adopt such measures because they ignored early warnings and let it spread like wildfire.

It's being contained relatively well in western countries.

wakka12

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Is it though? If only china had started the quarantine after only 5 cases. Seems like theres more chance of countries getting it under control sooner when measures like that are implemented quickly.

It would have been considered brash and premature. Only when it was serious was quaratine implemented and by then it was too late. Its nothing unique to China it is how it will work in every other country too where this happens. The case in Vietnam happened only because the town is small. If it was 5 cases in a big city it would not be quaratined

Fr_Dougal

Have BNO not updated yet? Can’t see any change in numbers.

laurah591

Hubei Ncov figures are late

Wibbs

GooglePlus wrote: »

They only had to adopt such measures because they ignored early warnings and let it spread like wildfire.

It's being contained relatively well in western countries.

To be fair to the Chinese on the ground, they're in the middle of winter and see mostly older, already health compromised patients coming down with pneumonia, it wouldn't register something new was afoot for a while. Probably only when they noticed a definite upswing in new patients presenting with same. Whatever about the porkies the Chinese government tend to weave, I doubt other nations would have been any quicker and very few could shut down a city of ten million when they did spot it.

GooglePlus

Wibbs wrote: »

To be fair to the Chinese on the ground, they're in the middle of winter and see mostly older, already health compromised patients coming down with pneumonia, it wouldn't register something new was afoot for a while. Probably only when they noticed a definite upswing in new patients presenting with same. Whatever about the porkies the Chinese government tend to weave, I doubt other nations would have been any quicker and very few could shut down a city of ten million when they did spot it.

No, I agree with you.

The Chinese took the hit so the rest of us didn't have to.

igCorcaigh

laurah591 wrote: »

Hubei Ncov figures are late

I think they were yesterday as well?

I'm going by the worldometers site, which seems to be fairly updated regularly, and accurate.

Thanks to the poster who pointed me to it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It's got today's +1 case in UK, the charts and tables are very nice.

GDK_11

Ok guys where do I get some masks 😷

Wibbs

Plue many diseases and conditions first present with fever, weakness, runny nose and coughs. The onset of some forms of the Black Death would follow that, but until the labs came back(if they even had a specific test for it), or until the disease progressed to show more clear symptoms before a doctor in say Dublin or Cork would even begin to think "Jaysus, it could be the plague". And that's a fast moving disease. Worse they could fire wide spectrum antibiotics at the patient thinking it was "just" bacterial pneumonia and the patient recovered and was discharged. Then they could have missed it entirely until more and more people started piling up with the same symptoms.

givyjoe

GooglePlus wrote: »

They only had to adopt such measures because they ignored early warnings and let it spread like wildfire.

It's being contained relatively well in western countries.

Relatively well doesn't cut.

GooglePlus

We have to remember that they did silence the doctor who brought this to official attention and made him denounce what he had said, so they are somewhat responsible for the delay in containment action.

igCorcaigh

Wibbs wrote: »

Plue many diseases and conditions first present with fever, weakness, runny nose and coughs. The onset of some forms of the Black Death would follow that, but until the labs came back(if they even had a specific test for it), or until the disease progressed to show more clear symptoms before a doctor in say Dublin or Cork would even begin to think "Jaysus, it could be the plague". And that's a fast moving disease. Worse they could fire wide spectrum antibiotics at the patient thinking it was "just" bacterial pneumonia and the patient recovered and was discharged. Then they could have missed it entirely until more and more people started piling up with the same symptoms.

They ask about recent travel history.
That may change once cases grow.

In fairness, there's no point in overloading our resources now

Timberrrrrrrr

givyjoe wrote: »

Relatively well doesn't cut.

What should they have done?

s7ryf3925pivug

They are testing lots of people.
Apparently they expected one to be positive in the hospital here, but they actually turned out to be fine.
That implies that most of the people they test are expected to be fine, and that they are being pretty vigilant about testing.

bodhrandude

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

They are testing lots of people.
Apparently they expected one to be positive in the hospital here, but they actually turned out to be fine.
That implies that most of the people they test are expected to be fine, and that they are being pretty vigilant about testing.

Perhaps they have faulty test kits like the ones in the US.

gmisk

GooglePlus wrote: »

No, I agree with you.

The Chinese took the hit so the rest of us didn't have to.

They might have took the hit...but in fairness it did originate there...like SARS did as well (I think?)

Call Me Jimmy

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

What should they have done?

Not supressed the information? Not have the police tell doctors not to do their job?

The first weeks are the most important, those are the weeks you don't let everybody in giant city walk around obliviously spreading it until it gets to the point where you have to lock the whole country in their homes?

Btw while locking everyone in their homes may or may not help us, it is a potential disaster in itself and I believe there will be a lot of horror revealed when the dust settles.

So it's not just 'good for them, thankfully they have total power and can order anything they want, ye wouldn't see that kind of organisation in ireland! And under a cloud of complete darkness, haven't even let the WHO in yet. What more could you ask for?'

Serious whitewash over the last few days.

GooglePlus

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Not supressed the information? Not have the police tell doctors not to do their job?

The first weeks are the most important, those are the weeks you don't let everybody in giant city walk around obliviously spreading it until it gets to the point where you have to lock the whole country in their homes?

Btw while locking everyone in their homes may or may not help us, it is a potential disaster in itself and I believe there will be a lot of horror revealed when the dust settles.

So it's not just 'good for them, thankfully they have total power and can order anything they want', ye wouldn't see that kind of organisation in ireland! And under a cloud of darkness, and haven't even let the WHO in yet? What more could you ask for?

Serious whitewash over the last few days.

He was referring to the Western response.

fritzelly

Slightly off topic...while waiting for the Doomsday figurese
Does anyone think this may make countries less reliant on China as a supply chain?

Timberrrrrrrr

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Not supressed the information? Not have the police tell doctors not to do their job?

The first weeks are the most important, those are the weeks you don't let everybody in giant city walk around obliviously spreading it until it gets to the point where you have to lock the whole country in their homes?

Btw while locking everyone in their homes may or may not help us, it is a potential disaster in itself and I believe there will be a lot of horror revealed when the dust settles.

So it's not just 'good for them, thankfully they have total power and can order anything they want, ye wouldn't see that kind of organisation in ireland! And under a cloud of complete darkness, haven't even let the WHO in yet. What more could you ask for?'

Serious whitewash over the last few days.

Google said

It's being contained relatively well in western countries.

You replied "Relatively well doesn't cut it"

What should western countries have done better?

I agree it was handled badly by the Chinese bit I believe they are doing their best now to get a hold of it and stop it's spread.

s7ryf3925pivug

bodhrandude wrote: »

Perhaps they have faulty test kits like the ones in the US.

Oh I missed that story. That's not good.

fritzelly

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Oh I missed that story. That's not good.

http://archive.ph/eyiW7

This is nothing to do with those testing negative then later positive - that's to do with the virus

s7ryf3925pivug

fritzelly wrote: »

http://archive.ph/eyiW7

This is nothing to do with those testing negative then later positive - that's to do with the virus

ninja edit

SeaBreezes

GooglePlus wrote: »

They only had to adopt such measures because they ignored early warnings and let it spread like wildfire.

It's being contained relatively well in western countries.

Is it though? Even with the early warning it's a tough virus to detect and stop spreading. We won't know how well it's being 'contained' for another month.