new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

fritzelly

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227748006105055232

dominatinMC

MD1990 wrote: »

This gives us little confidence in WHO as well as China.

Maybe Ireland should go into lockdown now even with no case yet

That would require us to be proactive for the the first time in the history of the state. Well, since the Rising anyway!

Martina1991

Sounds like the CDC rushed the manufacturing of the kits. All reagents should have been validated and audited before shipping worldwide.
Poor practice.

sdanseo

Full disclosure: i panicked slightly when I saw the figure.

Having taken 15 minutes to digest it: this is a correction of figures based on previous underreporting. It's nothing anyone didn't already suspect.
The mortality rate of the new figures - 242 / 14840 - is 1.63%
The total average is around 2.28%

The figures seem to contradict themselves. They say 48206 total cases of which 3440 discharged (thats cumulative not new)
But in the same breath they say only 33693 in hospital.

Of the 33693 - 5467 or 16.2 % "critical" (google translate churns up critical twice, so I take this to mean "serious")
and 1437 "critical" ( i take this to mean ICU)

TLDR -> while it is impossible to interpret this as "good" news, or to tell if the spread is slowing because it seems these figures have been reclassified for cases covering a large number of days, the general percentages in terms of seriousness etc seem to be much the same.

wakka12

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today
Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today
Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

Where are you getting 107 deaths, 245 new deaths today

Fr_Dougal

Deleted User wrote: »

It looks like we are all f**ked, that it will just take its course and do its pandemic spread. The advantage in retarding its rate of spread would mean less cases at any one time, and to an extent this is happening. But I think we are going to have to resign ourselves into probably getting the horrible dose and hope to goodness we survive and without the worst complications.

One piece of kit that would be useful to have is a pulse oximeter, where you could keep an eye on how well your lungs are oxygenating you’re blood. As long as your sats are keeping well into the 90s you are ok, but when you see them dropping then it’s time to get to hospital. From time to time Lidl sells these, and you can get them through Amazon.

Personally I feel I will be kind of waiting to get the dose, get it behind me, and be immune. But all the time wishing the whole thing would just go away.

These pulse oximeters are built into a lot of smart phones, if you have a Samsung Galaxy S, for example, there’s a fairly good chance you have one. Probably not as accurate as a stand-alone device.

Martina1991

wakka12 wrote:

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

Yes. Prioritising tests for those with more severe symptoms.

wakka12

fritzelly wrote: »

Where are you getting 107 deaths, 245 new deaths today

Without clinical diagnosis. Many of the deaths today were 'confirmed' as they are assumed to have died from coronavirus, not actually tested. Only 107 deaths were actually tested positive for the virus.

I think its strange honestly. Theres bound to be some people with other respiratory diseases becoming part of the numbers now.Look how many strongly suspected coronavirus cases abroad have turned out to be negative. But at the same time, must mean A LOT of recent deaths were never confirmed as coronvirus infections in the last few days

sdanseo

wakka12 wrote: »

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today
Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

fritzelly wrote: »

Where are you getting 107 deaths, 245 new deaths today

Distinction between clinical diagnosis and laboratory confirmed is very important here.

Clinical diagnosis means a doctor diagnoses based on symptoms and other tests
Lab confirmed is a scientific confirmation of a positive test for this exact virus

They are now including both figures in the totals.
If you comparer apples with apples and use the criteria they were using yesterday, the number has continued to drop. (see above)

wakka12

Martina1991 wrote: »

Yes. Prioritising tests for those with more severe symptoms.

Sure, but still most days they were confirming 2500 or so cases daily, now and yesterday was 1500 or so. I assumed it was because cases were just going down but clearly not, and there are a lot more people to be tested. So they seem to have reduced capacity to test people

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

Personally I feel I will be kind of waiting to get the dose, get it behind me, and be immune.

I thought immunity wouldn't be acquired?

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

Without clinical diagnosis. Many of the deaths today were 'confirmed' as they are assumed to have died from coronavirus, not actually tested. Only 107 deaths were actually tested positive for the virus.

Yeah reread the report but still 107 confirmed with coronavirus doesn't mean they are not all as a result
Not sure it's a good way to look at it saying more than half of all deaths today might have been coronavirus but were not gonna bother testing for it.
Knowing how the Chinese report deaths from flu I'm leaning towards they are all corona related

Drumpot

On nhs website it says :

Because it's a new illness, we do not know exactly how coronavirus spreads from person to person.

But they can confidently say

While the risk to people in the UK is low, these steps can help reduce the possible spread of infection.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

So they don’t know yet how it’s spread but are happy to profess the risk to people in the UK is low ... I don’t mind people saying the risk is low, once it’s backed up with even a snippet of information that explains why it is low... This is my issue, a sort of “just STFU and take our word for it” approach.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus.html

Something similar on HSE website but in fairness they don’t appear to say the risk is low.

Will clinical diagnosis be used for the cured figure does anyone know?

wakka12

Yes I recall HSE saying risk was 'moderate' ,as opposed to 'low' a few weeks ago, odd that it is higher than the risk is perceived to be in the UK when the UK has several cases of h2h transmissions across the country now. CDC also recently said risk to Americans was low but now has today declared that community epidemics are inevitable and imminent

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1227757464017424384?s=19

wakka12

48,206 Reported Cases in Hubei, 33,693 of which have required hospitalization=
70%.
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-12-20-intl-hnk/h_396b02146384936e397a3735177ec217

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought immunity wouldn't be acquired?

Really I don’t quite know. My understanding would be that you might hopefully get immunity once you have had the wretched dose of Covid-19, but that if it mutated then you would not be immune to that mutation.

Watched a UK program the other day about a theoretical pandemic on a model created using volunteers and their mobile phones to assess how a pandemic airborne virus could spread from patient zero, the presenter of the documentary. Such a spread was demonstrated to be exponential in this day of easy travel. The superspreaders were said to simply be persons who were in relatively close contact with a lot of other people, eg supermarket check-out assistants.

igCorcaigh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Will clinical diagnosis be used for the cured figure does anyone know?

Don't know, but I guess when the PCR test for viral load becomes undetectable?

Anyone?

70% of people didn't "require" hospitalisation.. That's how many were hospitalised.

ObiTwoKenobi

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought immunity wouldn't be acquired?

Medcram's latest video talks about this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

4068ac1elhodqr

60,000+ global confirmed cases? Unless that's a typo, someone may want to call the big red phone at the CDC/WHO and tell em to get their fingers out?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The biggest single day jump to date. 44-60k? Still assuming the quick 16k jump (China) is a error.

Legacy Better Explosion

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

60,000+ global confirmed cases? Unless that's a typo, someone may want to call the big red phone at the CDC/WHO and tell em to get their fingers out?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The iggest single day jump to date. 44-60k? Still assuming the quick 16k jump (China) is a error.

They're including clinical diagnosis now and are adjusting previous figures as a result.

cnocbui

Martina1991 wrote: »

Sounds like the CDC rushed the manufacturing of the kits. All reagents should have been validated and audited before shipping worldwide.
Poor practice.

The US has lost it's Mojo.

CDC mistakenly removes San Diego’s first positive coronavirus case from hospital
Kalitta-Friday.jpg
...
Infected patient was cleared by CDC, then returned to UC San Diego Health
By Paul Sisson
Feb. 10, 2020
5:37 PM

A botched test result from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention allowed an evacuee infected with the coronavirus to leave a San Diego hospital Sunday after initially being told by the CDC that they were in the clear.

The situation is detailed in a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health Monday evening, which says that all four quarantine patients admitted to its isolation units after arriving from China last week were discharged back to quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC shared with caregivers that their coronavirus tests came back negative.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-02-10/san-diego-county-has-firt

ObiTwoKenobi

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

60,000+ global confirmed cases? Unless that's a typo, someone may want to call the big red phone at the CDC/WHO and tell em to get their fingers out?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The biggest single day jump to date. 44-60k? Still assuming the quick 16k jump (China) is a error.

Let's hope it's a correction and not a new daily increment.

YFlyer

ardinn wrote: »

Youtubes tags on john are gone arseways! - Impossible to embed!

Doc John

Is he in China? Seem to be inside the whole time.

bodhrandude

Ex-Towie star Harry Derbridge's fiancee tested for coronavirus. Hahaha trust the Sun to dig up a story about an infected celebrity.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10949374/towie-harry-derbridges-fiance-coronavirus/

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227767195268153344

Latest lockdown represents area of almost 3.5 million people.

4068ac1elhodqr

ObiTwoKenobi wrote: »

Let's hope it's a correction and not a new daily increment.

Some new 'measurement/classification criteria' of presumed cases it seems. However much of the media is already running with the 'x10 fold daily increase' headline.

Just more crisis and communication mis-management, from China.

Everytime, I look at this thread. I wonder if I'm in conspiracy theories. So much false information. Still about 2/10 on the worried scale and I've more to be worried about as I work on the frontline and won't be able to hide at home.if the worst was to happen.

fritzelly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227767195268153344

Latest lockdown represents area of almost 3.5 million people.

Thank god for that - for a while there I was thinking this was getting serious

YFlyer

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227767195268153344

Latest lockdown represents area of almost 3.5 million people.

That Patrick Kline fella seems to be well behind with lockdown time.

fritzelly

This isn't worrying at all - over 2 weeks later finally tested positive after having symptoms
Are we letting lots of infected people out in to the wild? Why is China locking down more areas? Are we really being told the truth?
Dan Brown needs to get writing!

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227777126922948608

bodhrandude

fritzelly wrote: »

This isn't worrying at all - over 2 weeks later finally tested positive after having symptoms
Are we letting lots of infected people out in to the wild? Why is China locking down more areas? Are we really being told the truth?
Dan Brown needs to get writing!

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227777126922948608

Now that's scary, I believe I might of highlighted that before from a different report that it took four tests to confirm someone positive. No wonder China has the situation it has. I don't know if its related to the US story of faulty kits, but I do believe China had also complained to the CDC as well about them.

theguzman

fritzelly wrote: »

This isn't worrying at all - over 2 weeks later finally tested positive after having symptoms
Are we letting lots of infected people out in to the wild? Why is China locking down more areas? Are we really being told the truth?
Dan Brown needs to get writing!

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227777126922948608

Possibly she caught it after her initial tests? (hopefully).

ceadaoin.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Hygiene and medical standards are very different these days (in certain places).

First world countries have huge rates of underlying health problems due to obesity these days. We are also older on average.

While back in the days of working = manual labor people were fitter, stronger. They didn't have antibiotics sure and a heart attack meant certain death. But that doesn't matter because in an overwhelmed health system you get access to zero of our modern health advances.

BanditLuke

MD1990 wrote: »

This gives us little confidence in WHO as well as China.

Maybe Ireland should go into lockdown now even with no case yet

Would have been the smart thing to do weeks ago. We had a very good chance of beating this as a small island. RTE spent 22 seconds talking about this last night on the news let that sink in for a minute.

VinLieger

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

60,000+ global confirmed cases? Unless that's a typo, someone may want to call the big red phone at the CDC/WHO and tell em to get their fingers out?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The biggest single day jump to date. 44-60k? Still assuming the quick 16k jump (China) is a error.

Nope its correct, China finally adjusted their reporting to add people who havent been tested but show symptoms as well as opening a new larger testing facility, 14k of that is in Hubei alone. The WHO arrived there yesterday so some of this is their doing as well to try and get chinas numbers into line.

Sean 18

BanditLuke wrote: »

Would have been the smart thing to do weeks ago. We had a very good chance of beating this as a small island. RTE spent 22 seconds talking about this last night on the news let that sink in for a minute.

Shocking that RTÉ are completely ignoring this most of the older population won't think there's a problem when they won't hear it on the news

Nonoperational

Deleted User wrote: »

Everytime, I look at this thread. I wonder if I'm in conspiracy theories. So much false information. Still about 2/10 on the worried scale and I've more to be worried about as I work on the frontline and won't be able to hide at home.if the worst was to happen.

There's no point mate. People with no knowledge or expertise commenting as fact. It's interesting to read from a sociological point of view though.

gmisk

fritzelly wrote: »

This isn't worrying at all - over 2 weeks later finally tested positive after having symptoms
Are we letting lots of infected people out in to the wild? Why is China locking down more areas? Are we really being told the truth?
Dan Brown needs to get writing!

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227777126922948608

In this crisis the last thing we need to endure is another Dan Brown book!

Cody montana

BanditLuke wrote: »

Would have been the smart thing to do weeks ago. We had a very good chance of beating this as a small island. RTE spent 22 seconds talking about this last night on the news let that sink in for a minute.

Let what sink in?
Weeks later and there have been zero cases here.

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

And we've still the rest of China to declare yet!

Has the rest of China declared yet?

And why have no mainstream media or the WHO discussed why the calculation ALWAYS arrives at 2.1 percent?

SeaBreezes

wakka12 wrote: »

48,206 Reported Cases in Hubei, 33,693 of which have required hospitalization=
70%.
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-12-20-intl-hnk/h_396b02146384936e397a3735177ec217

That's more in line with what's happening on the cruis ship and Singapore taking time lag into account..

SeaBreezes

VinLieger wrote: »

Nope its correct, China finally adjusted their reporting to add people who havent been tested but show symptoms as well as opening a new larger testing facility, 14k of that is in Hubei alone. The WHO arrived there yesterday so some of this is their doing as well to try and get chinas numbers into line.

Ahhhh the WHO are on the ground. Harder to hide the dead bodies then. So the infected number had to jump to balance the numbers.

drunkmonkey

Cody montana wrote: »

Weeks later and there have been zero cases here.

I'll be amazed if that turns out to be the truth.

SeaBreezes

Shanghai officials confirm novel #coronavirus transmission modes, it includes direct, contact and airborne, aerosol transmissions. (China Daily)

Peatys

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Everytime, I look at this thread. I wonder if I'm in conspiracy theories. So much false information. Still about 2/10 on the worried scale and I've more to be worried about as I work on the frontline and won't be able to hide at home.if the worst was to happen.

Has the virus had and damaging or lasting effects on people outside of China? Korea for example, some infected people have come out the other side of it and are back to work already.

GooglePlus

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ahhhh the WHO are on the ground. Harder to hide the dead bodies then. So the infected number had to jump to balance the numbers.

I find it hard to believe the WHO are only on the ground now?

If true, that's an absolute disgrace.