new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

SeaBreezes

It's the worldometer page on closed cases stats that depress the hell out of me. It's not budging. 1 in 5 fatality. Consistently.
I keep hoping that stat will improve.

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

I find it hard to believe the WHO are only on the ground now?

If true, that's an absolute disgrace.

They should be declaring the actual numbers not balancing.

What’s the benefit of this 2.1 percent balancing. It just raises more suspicion.

Peatys

Peatys wrote: »

Has the virus had and damaging or lasting effects on people outside of China? Korea for example, some infected people have come out the other side of it and are back to work already.

Korea's health system is outstanding.

BanditLuke

Cody montana wrote: »

Let what sink in?
Weeks later and there have been zero cases here.

If you can't see it you can't see it.

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

Without clinical diagnosis. Many of the deaths today were 'confirmed' as they are assumed to have died from coronavirus, not actually tested. Only 107 deaths were actually tested positive for the virus.

I think its strange honestly. Theres bound to be some people with other respiratory diseases becoming part of the numbers now.Look how many strongly suspected coronavirus cases abroad have turned out to be negative. But at the same time, must mean A LOT of recent deaths were never confirmed as coronvirus infections in the last few days

Just with regards yesterdays death figures... did the 138 odd happen yesterday or did these occur in the past and are just shown now to correct figures ..... assuming accurate info is being provided

Mic 1972

The number of infected people seems to double on a weekly basis, this has been the case since the beginning. The 60K update confirms the trend and is consistent with the previous data

60K infected means the magic 2% mortality rate has gone down

Sheep Shagger

Think I know the answer to the question but am interested in getting peoples opinion.

We are in the throws of arranging a family catch up in Maylasia in the summer (flying in to Bangkok). Before we pull the trigger on booking and paying for the long haul flights this week, would our travel insurance (which I plan to buy from multi trip.com at the same time) cover us should either counter become an affected zone.

Korea have advised it's people to not travel to Maylasia. Ireland have not (yet).

Have a query with Multitrip.com and they are the checking...

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The number of infected people seems to double on a weekly basis, this has been the case since the beginning. The 60K update confirms the trend and is consistent with the previous data

60K infected means the magic 2% mortality rate has gone down

?

I have the death rate at 2.27%

Total Confirmed 60,327
Deaths 1367

spread spread spread, seems like reckless advice from a first world country

International university students from China say they are transiting to third countries to wait out their quarantine period before flying to Australia to resume their classes.
The Department of Education, Skills and Employment issued advice earlier this week on how students "may" be able to get back to Australia via a third country and provided examples.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-12/coronavirus-international-students-travel-through-third-country/11954618

some countries like Cambodia have no travel restrictions with China
https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/china-and-cambodia-love-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/

Earlier, in Cambodia, Hun Sen had slammed reporters at a press briefing for wearing face masks. “The prime minister doesn’t wear a mask, so why do you?” he demanded. The same brash fearlessness was on display in his China trip.

The New York Times, citing Cambodian civil aviation authorities, reported that “about 3,000 travelers from Wuhan have flown to Cambodia since the epidemic was announced” in January.

Xinhua praised Cambodia’s decision not to evacuate students, impose travel restrictions on Chinese nationals, or halt flights as “important support for China.

Sheep Shagger

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Think I know the answer to the question but am interested in getting peoples opinion.

We are in the throws of arranging a family catch up in Maylasia in the summer (flying in to Bangkok). Before we pull the trigger on booking and paying for the long haul flights this week, would our travel insurance (which I plan to buy from multi trip.com at the same time) cover us should either counter become an affected zone.

Korea have advised it's people to not travel to Maylasia. Ireland have not (yet).

Have a query with Multitrip.com and they are the checking...

I don’t know the answer but let us know what multitrip say.

I’m booked to go to Greece in May. I have annual travel insurance. I don’t think it’s going to be an issue though.

joseywhales

It's a bit naive to think that it wont reach every country, seeing how contagious it appears to be, there is no point in stopping all commerce and travel indefinitely, we just need measures to buy time for diagnosis,treatment and vaccination.

dominatinMC

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Think I know the answer to the question but am interested in getting peoples opinion.

We are in the throws of arranging a family catch up in Maylasia in the summer (flying in to Bangkok). Before we pull the trigger on booking and paying for the long haul flights this week, would our travel insurance (which I plan to buy from multi trip.com at the same time) cover us should either counter become an affected zone.

Korea have advised it's people to not travel to Maylasia. Ireland have not (yet).

Have a query with Multitrip.com and they are the checking...

Personally, I wouldn't do it. Who knows how bad it could be by the Summer and given Malaysia's proximity to the epicentre of the outbreak, there is a possibility that it could be under pressure by then. Why risk it

givyjoe

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Think I know the answer to the question but am interested in getting peoples opinion.

We are in the throws of arranging a family catch up in Maylasia in the summer (flying in to Bangkok). Before we pull the trigger on booking and paying for the long haul flights this week, would our travel insurance (which I plan to buy from multi trip.com at the same time) cover us should either counter become an affected zone.

Korea have advised it's people to not travel to Maylasia. Ireland have not (yet).

Have a query with Multitrip.com and they are the checking...

Be interested to know the answer to this, but cover for what specifically? If you decide yourself not to go, I'd doubt it. If an airline cancels a leg of your trip, you'd likely be covered for that particular leg. If you get sick, depending on the wording, it should cover you. I'm about to purchase travel insurance and the policy I'm going with doesn't specifically excluded pandemics. I don't believe they can use the natural disaster clause with this one but it would be very interesting to see what they come back with.

SeaBreezes

gmisk wrote: »

In this crisis the last thing we need to endure is another Dan Brown book!

Apparently Dean R Koontz got there first called the virus Wuhan-400. I kid you not.

VinLieger

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The number of infected people seems to double on a weekly basis, this has been the case since the beginning. The 60K update confirms the trend and is consistent with the previous data

60K infected means the magic 2% mortality rate has gone down

It means nothing of the sort because they have been under recording deaths this whole time as well

antodeco

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Apparently Dean R Koontz got there first called the virus Wuhan-400. I kid you not.

Was originally Gorki-400 and changed sometime around 1991 to Wuhan-400

josip

joseywhales wrote: »

we just need measures to buy time for diagnosis,treatment and vaccination.

It's unlikely that a vaccine will be found during the Covid-19 outbreak.

drunkmonkey

marvin80 wrote: »

This sounds like conspiracy sh*t - fu*k off unless you have facts or proof.

It was right at that moment Marvin realised he wasn't prepared for the impending apocalypse.

PhantomHat

As the chances are ever increasing by the day that we will have many cases in Ireland I think it's very important to note we must increase our ability to fight off this disease.
In other words we must make sure our immune systems are working optimally.

Dr Seheult from MedCram has a very easy and straightforward suggestion

https://youtu.be/qqZYEgREuZ8

gozunda

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Apparently Dean R Koontz got there first called the virus Wuhan-400. I kid you not.

Looks like the reference was updated sometime after the 1990s from the original cold war russian reference. The story subsequrnly detailed a military lab near Wuhan - see link below

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3875669

That said- It remains a quite incredible coincidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology is the premier lab in China that studies bat and human coronaviruses....

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins

s7ryf3925pivug

We have the full range of angles here from complete unconcern to conviction that society will break down.

Identifying CT, misinformation and errors is good. Getting angry with people for not sharing your point of view isn't nice though.

My view is that major organisations like WHO and the CDC indicate that the global risk level is high or grave, and I take that at face value. In light of that fact, I don't really get people who present themselves as authorities but say there's not much to worry about.

josip

While I think there is no harm in preparing for a period of self isolation, I think it's highly unlikely that there will be any form of societal collapse.
Even with the worst, unverified mortality rate that anyone has posted on this thread of 20%, 4 out of every 5 doctors, guards, bus drivers, farmers, factory workers, etc will remain alive and well.

MD1990

Some poster's condescending tone is doing this thread no favours acting like experts on the illness.

Everyone can only make predictions atm. Although it isn't looking good.

brick tamland

So even with the increase in the Chinese figures, I’m still more interested in the cases outside of China. From what I can see is that there is still only 2 deaths outside of China reported, running at a percentage below 2% at the moment. At least one of the deaths was a person from Wuhan ( Not sure about the other). Although I haven’t seen load of reports, they’re have been reports saying symptoms of patients outside china have been quite mild.



The Figures from the cruise ship will tell more as well as I’d imagine they average age of those diagnosed is quite high, with it been a cruise ship.

PhantomHat

PhantomHat wrote: »

As the chances are ever increasing by the day that we will have many cases in Ireland I think it's very important to note we must increase our ability to fight off this disease.
In other words we must make sure our immune systems are working optimally.

Dr Seheult from MedCram has a very easy and straightforward suggestion

https://youtu.be/qqZYEgREuZ8

So our best defence against a Coronavirus is to sleep. As the hormones we produce while awake create an enzyme that assists the virus in spreading to other cells. Whilst asleep, the healthy cells have a better chance of attacking.

Would any of our scientifically minded posters weigh in on this?

BanditLuke

marvin80 wrote: »

This sounds like conspiracy sh*t - fu*k off unless you have facts or proof.

If there is a case here (hopefully not) it'll be idiots like ye stoking the fires trying to cause unnecessary panic and stress.

Seek help for your anger issues.

odyssey06

The death rate is important but so are the number of critical cases requiring hospitalisation.

There's going to be one death rate for low volume of critical cases, and one death rate for high volume of critical cases if that volume exceeds the available medical facilities.

It's not going to be a fixed \ linear progression, it's not going to scale up consistently.

SeaBreezes

brick tamland wrote: »

So even with the increase in the Chinese figures, I’m still more interested in the cases outside of China. From what I can see is that there is still only 2 deaths outside of China reported, running at a percentage below 2% at the moment. At least one of the deaths was a person from Wuhan ( Not sure about the other). Although I haven’t seen load of reports, they’re have been reports saying symptoms of patients outside china have been quite mild.



The Figures from the cruise ship will tell more as well as I’d imagine they average age of those diagnosed is quite high, with it been a cruise ship.

So, ship was quarantined Feb 4th with 10 cases at the time.
Of those 10, 10 days later 4 of the six required hospitalisation.

10 days later there are 219 confirmed cases on board.

pc7

SeaBreezes wrote: »

So, ship was quarantined Feb 4th with 10 cases at the time.
Of those 10, 10 days later 4 of the six required hospitalisation.

10 days later there are 219 confirmed cases on board.

Jesus hadn't realised the numbers had gone up again to 219, that's enough now they need those people off the ship and in a proper quarantine set up to try stop the spread.

Dr McConkey on Séan O’Rourke has just described it as SARS Coronavirus 2. Rather an alarming term.

silverharp

odyssey06 wrote: »

The death rate is important but so are the number of critical cases requiring hospitalisation.

There's going to be one death rate for low volume of critical cases, and one death rate for high volume of critical cases if that volume exceeds the available medical facilities.

It's not going to be a fixed \ linear progression, it's not going to scale up consistently.

the high critical is more worrying. I guess one on the many unknowns is how it affects a European population? , it may not be as severe here...here's hoping.

wakka12

brick tamland wrote: »

So even with the increase in the Chinese figures, I’m still more interested in the cases outside of China. From what I can see is that there is still only 2 deaths outside of China reported, running at a percentage below 2% at the moment. At least one of the deaths was a person from Wuhan ( Not sure about the other). Although I haven’t seen load of reports, they’re have been reports saying symptoms of patients outside china have been quite mild.



The Figures from the cruise ship will tell more as well as I’d imagine they average age of those diagnosed is quite high, with it been a cruise ship.

Theres more to it than deaths. 23 people worldwide are in serious or critical condition,4% of patients. Significantly more people than the flu would hospitalise, that figure also doesnt include several recoveries from critical condition in France and, USA, at least 3 , and also the fact that the majority of these cases occurred very recently on a Japanese ship and it has not been long enough for most for symptoms to progress to serious stage.

marvin80

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It was right at that moment Marvin realised he wasn't prepared for the impending apocalypse.

:D:D

silverharp

wakka12 wrote: »

Theres more to it than deaths. 23 people worldwide are in serious or critical condition,4% of patients. Significantly more people than the flu would hospitalise, that figure also doesnt include several recoveries from critical condition in France and, USA, at least 3 , and also the fact that the majority of these cases occurred very recently on a Japanese ship and it has not been long enough for most for symptoms to progress to serious stage.

is there an ethnic breakdown to the worldwide cases? ie were they mostly Chinese people who lived abroad and had visited the country or their families?

wakka12

silverharp wrote: »

is there an ethnic breakdown to the worldwide cases? ie were they mostly Chinese people who lived abroad and had visited the country or their families?

Well they are almost entirely asian ethnicity if thats what you mean. There is a significant number of local transmissions in Singapore, Hong Jong and Japan where a majority of the critical cases are so I assume they are mostly non Chinese

gozunda

josip wrote: »

While I think there is no harm in preparing for a period of self isolation, I think it's highly unlikely that there will be any form of societal collapse.
Even with the worst, unverified mortality rate that anyone has posted on this thread of 20%, 4 out of every 5 doctors, guards, bus drivers, farmers, factory workers, etc will remain alive and well.

Its not the actual death rate which will be most concerning - rather the strain that essential services will be put under to treat the large numbers requiring medical care. That and the likley shortages of essential resources such as oxygen, essential ppe for frontline workers etc.

The need for containment and isolation will mean that day to day activities as we have seen in China may need to severely curtailed.

Whether Ireland as a country can cope with a full blown epidemic (if it comes to that) remains to be seen.

Drumpot

josip wrote: »

While I think there is no harm in preparing for a period of self isolation, I think it's highly unlikely that there will be any form of societal collapse.
Even with the worst, unverified mortality rate that anyone has posted on this thread of 20%, 4 out of every 5 doctors, guards, bus drivers, farmers, factory workers, etc will remain alive and well.

I think this is fair but with caveats. Panic isn’t necessarily connected to actual threat, it’s also connected to not being prepared , lack of training and lack of understanding. Ignorance in many regards is one of our biggest threats. Ask Arab people living in America how some Americans responded to them as threats after a handful flew planes into the twin towers. There seems to be a presumption that we are a civilised society that couldn’t possibly revert to more uncivilised behaviors, but a few days of forced isolation for families could quickly change that.

Maybe this will have a really low mortality rate. But maybe more people will get it in a closer proximity and a shorter timescale. People stop trusting people’, that’s how society breaks down. Somebody sneezes near anybody and it’s not the same as a normal sneeze or cough for the Normal flu.

I think a common sense approach would be to be already starting quite strict hygiene practises everywhere. Prevention is better then cure, this whole “wait and see” milarky Will potentially get people killed. If you can’t start educating people and preparing them even in a conservative , calm way in advance of a pandemic, why do you think you will be able to communicate the same message after the door has bolted? This really does feel like the priority is containment of potential panic , rather then face it head on and try get people to grow up and just take better precautions in a calm manner.

I visited my GP as I’m (supposed to be) going to Namibia early next month, to get a few prescriptions as I always do when going to a destination where I’m flying long distance and may be away from medical care. He gave me amoxicillin to put in my medical kit in case I encounter likes of a probable bacterial chest infection. I’ve had quite nasty bacterial pneumonias before, once requiring hospitalisation, so no harm having it to hand. It will also be a handy in case of getting a suspected secondary bacterial infection on top of CoVid-19. If the hospitals are all overwhelmed with cases at least I have some sort of way of trying to look after myself. The pulse oximeter would help me assess lung function and when it would be appropriate to join the infected masses in the hospital.

For those with a stoma, like myself, it is important to have in stock enough stoma bags and supplies. There are a surprising number of people with stomas, and the necessary supplies are among the things that could run short. Without them you simply cannot function. Women need to buy in enough menstruated supplies. Everyone should make sure they have an easy-to-use thermometer. A notebook could be put aside to record temperatures, oximeter readings etc so you know the trend of how the illness is progressing and have something to show medical personnel should that be needed. That awful stuff, Lucozade, could be handy to have in, and measures to keep the electrolytes up where gastrointestinal involvement is present. Nutrition will be important to aid recovery, so light ready meals could be handy if there’s space in the freezer.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Dr McConkey on Séan O’Rourke has just described it as SARS Coronavirus 2. Rather an alarming term.

There seems to have been a lot of confusion over the recent name change announced by the WHO.

COVID-19 is a name for the disease, not for the virus that causes it...

The Coronavirus Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, the paper noted, had decided to call the virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/bit-chaotic-christening-new-coronavirus-and-its-disease-name-create-confusion

Mic 1972

This is how quickly it has spread so far

Week 1 (23/01/2020) = 639
Week 2 (30/01/2020) = 9,700
Week 3 (06/02/2020) = 30,600
Week 4 (13/02/2020) = 60,500

Vast majority of cases are still in China

Scrabbles38

I think some people need to take a breath on this thread...

I agree we don’t know enough about this virus yet...
But let’s put this into prospective...

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

This new world killer virus, which is going to wipe us out..has so far in China ...
Which has a population of 1.5 billion ...
Has infected 60k+
And killed 1100+

I’m not saying this virus isn’t bad.. but take a breath people

Scrabbles38

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

I think some people need to take a breath on this thread...

I agree we don’t know enough about this virus yet...
But let’s put this into prospective...

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

This new world killer virus, which is going to wipe us out..has so far in China ...
Which has a population of 1.5 billion ...
Has infected 60k+
And killed 1100+

I’m not saying this virus isn’t bad.. but take a breath people

Can you call China and tell them they are over reacting? Also all the countries with travel restrictions, ta

Mic 1972

Some people might be paniking, others are in total denial

Hector Savage

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

I think some people need to take a breath on this thread...

I agree we don’t know enough about this virus yet...
But let’s put this into prospective...

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

This new world killer virus, which is going to wipe us out..has so far in China ...
Which has a population of 1.5 billion ...
Has infected 60k+
And killed 1100+

I’m not saying this virus isn’t bad.. but take a breath people

Armenia 330+ million population ???

divide that by 100 and you;d be closer ...

wakka12

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

I think some people need to take a breath on this thread...

I agree we don’t know enough about this virus yet...
But let’s put this into prospective...

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

This new world killer virus, which is going to wipe us out..has so far in China ...
Which has a population of 1.5 billion ...
Has infected 60k+
And killed 1100+

I’m not saying this virus isn’t bad.. but take a breath people

And if a similar number of 19 million people were to hypothetically contract coronvirus, it is estimated that that would hospitalise 1.9 million people and kill380,000. That is why it is thought to be worse than the flu, do you understand now why they are not comparable situations? Coronvirus has been caused that many deaths in a month, not a year, and mostly in one city, not a country the size of the usa. It is what coronvirus might do if it operated on a worldwide scale for a long time which is what is worrying, not it's current comparison with flu on annual and global scale

givyjoe

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

I think some people need to take a breath on this thread...

I agree we don’t know enough about this virus yet...
But let’s put this into prospective...

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

This new world killer virus, which is going to wipe us out..has so far in China ...
Which has a population of 1.5 billion ...
Has infected 60k+
And killed 1100+

I’m not saying this virus isn’t bad.. but take a breath people

I really wish people would stop comparing flu numbers to this brand new virus. Flu is a virus which is long established, with multiple strains and has already travelled the world many times over. Its everywhere, already. This virus isn't, yet.

drunkmonkey

Not to derail this thread, started one about our rights over in legal discussion, https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112531978#post112531978

sweetie

Hector Savage wrote: »

Armenia 330+ million population ???

divide that by 100 and you;d be closer ...

America they probably meant

SeaBreezes

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

I think some people need to take a breath on this thread...

I agree we don’t know enough about this virus yet...
But let’s put this into prospective...

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

This new world killer virus, which is going to wipe us out..has so far in China ...
Which has a population of 1.5 billion ...
Has infected 60k+
And killed 1100+

Using your stats there:

Flu has an R0 of 1.4 and 1.6.
Coronavius R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6
(https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1)

Flu mortality rate: 0.01%
Coronavirus fatality rate of 2.1% (according to the Chinese)

So, taking the lower R0 estimate of 4: (and more will get it as we have NO immunity to this yet)

720,000+ infected.
15,120+ killed.


And I dont think society will collapse.I think it will be like the Spanish Flu.
But its still huge numbers, and heartbreaking.

I dont think any of us are going to be unaffected by this bug unfortunately.

Drumpot

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Some people might be paniking, others are in total denial

Define panic ?

I think some people define panic as discussing an actual event they want to ignore.

I enjoy philosophy which in many regards is about discussing different elements of human behavior. I am not panicking on any level, if anything I feel quite comfortable with what might arrive. I have already started looking up some good tips that actually will help me regardless of this epidemic.

One source suggests "more sleep" (link put up here somewhere) which in short will improve your immune system and increase your chances of survival/recovery. Other sources similarly talking about being generally healthy if you get the virus helps. If I use this to actually improve my own health, I dont really see how educating ("Panic" to some) myself is negative.

What I am seeing is a lot of the survival tips and suggestions are actually good common sense stuff. They are also good for teaching you to actually plan for events, which many people dont in a financial capacity. So if this forces me to be more prudent in managing my life in other areas, I am all for it.