new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

MD1990

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Using your stats there:

Flu has an R0 of 1.4 and 1.6.
Coronavius R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6
(https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1)

Flu mortality rate: 0.01%
Coronavirus fatality rate of 2.1% (according to the Chinese)

So, taking the lower R0 estimate of 4: (and more will get it as we have NO immunity to this yet)

720,000+ infected.
15,120+ killed.


And I dont think society will collapse.I think it will be like the Spanish Flu.
But its still huge numbers, and heartbreaking.

I dont think any of us are going to be unaffected by this bug unfortunately.

This is a big overreaction.

Hector Savage

Dr. John

wakka12

MD1990 wrote: »

This is a big overreaction.

With an R0 value of 4 ,and a hospitalisation/mortality rate of 10% and 2% respectively, its actually not at all and has the potential to be easily the most devastating pandemic since spanish flu. Hence the crazy measures being implemented in Asian countries, quaratine massive urban areas, being arrested for not wearing face masks, travel bans, business and school closures indefinitely, but okay the boards users saying its actually just the flu know best

wakka12

8 new cases in Singapore

https://m.weibo.cn/status/4471547382826331
A 1 year old child has recovered from a critically ill condition they were the youngest critically ill coronavirus patient so far.

auspicious

Professor David Heymann, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: "What has happened in China is that they have changed the definition of what the disease really is - now they are taking people who have lesser symptoms.

"The deaths are quite worrisome, there are an increased number of deaths reported, but if you look overall at the total number of deaths and the total number of cases, the fatality ratio is about the same as it has been - but it is still high, as high as the death rate in influenza."

Only Hubei province - which accounts for more than 80% of overall Chinese infections - is using the new definition to diagnose new cases....
- BBC

wakka12

1st death in Japan

Number of cases outside China reaches 500

Scrabbles38

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

I think some people need to take a breath on this thread...

I agree we don’t know enough about this virus yet...
But let’s put this into prospective...

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

This new world killer virus, which is going to wipe us out..has so far in China ...
Which has a population of 1.5 billion ...
Has infected 60k+
And killed 1100+

I’m not saying this virus isn’t bad.. but take a breath people

One thing. You can choose (in this country) to get vaccinated against Influenza, and that should at least give you enough protection that it will not prove fatal or severe to you. Because of a long history of past health issues I get the vaccination, and at worst on the two occasions I have knowingly come in close contact with another with the full blown Influenza (not a coryzal cold) when I was struck within 36 hours by a high fever, muscle pains and cough it has literally been a 36-48 hour illness with a rapid recovery and indeed a sense of “gloating” at how I escaped the full whack of it.

And I have never confused a bad cold with influenza as I got the real thing 4 tines in my life during past outbreaks, eg 1968 Hong Kong Influenza. I never understand how people can lump them together as the symptoms are so different. During the 1968 outbreak I was 7 and living at hone with my parents as an only child, my brother having died as a 3 week old baby in 1958 during the Asian Influenza outbreak which also killed my mother’s cousin down the road. Indeed that cousin’s mother held my brother as he sorbet his last breath in the house. No phones to summon likes of s a n ambulance. My mother later gave me a vivid description of his illness and death, and it involved a lot of drowning in and expelling fluid in an infant who was born strong and robust. My mother had picked up the influenza in the Rotunda Hospital, when in those days people were routinely kept in a week opposing the birth.

In 1968 my parents and I got the influenza simultaneously, with my mother having a particular dread and horror of it. She phoned her sister in Bray to let her know, and she came to the outside of our south Dublin on the train and bus, leaving a parcel of food and toiletries in the porch, giving a signal three rings on the doorbell to let my mother know they had been left whilst my aunt retreated back home. Neither she nor her children picked up the virus. No mobile phones then, when she got back to her hone to Bray she phoned to check on us. My mother had managed to come down the stairs on her bum (too dizzy to stand) and retrieved the parcel. At the outset had phoned neighbours to advise them not to call to the front door. She had us all in quarantine for at least two weeks, until we were clear if it. So I could never e we confuse a common cold, however bad and chesty etc, with influenza.

I reckon too, with CoVid-19, there will be no mistaking it for a cold, and possibly not influenza as headache, prominent in flu, doesn’t seem to be so much the case with CoVid-19. Breathlessness seems to be more of a feature, even in milder cases, than in uncomplicated flu. I guess we all are going to have to get educated pretty damn quick about the differences as it will become important, as most cases will become clinical diagnoses, with the more aware patient contributing to the diagnostic process, especially from a position of self-imposed quarantine.

Ms2011

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

These pulse oximeters are built into a lot of smart phones, if you have a Samsung Galaxy S, for example, there’s a fairly good chance you have one. Probably not as accurate as a stand-alone device.

Have on one my Smart Watch. Always at 97%.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

8 new cases in Singapore

https://m.weibo.cn/status/4471547382826331
A 1 year old child has recovered from a critically ill condition they were the youngest critically ill coronavirus patient so far.

Singapore has first class medical care, and health & safety & hygiene is very high on the list of priorities at all times in that small country. It is an immaculate place. The death rate there would be a good indicator of what the best possible outcomes could be with this disease.

Ulysses Gaze

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Using your stats there:

Flu has an R0 of 1.4 and 1.6.
Coronavius R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6
(https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1)

Flu mortality rate: 0.01%
Coronavirus fatality rate of 2.1% (according to the Chinese)

So, taking the lower R0 estimate of 4: (and more will get it as we have NO immunity to this yet)

720,000+ infected.
15,120+ killed.


And I dont think society will collapse.I think it will be like the Spanish Flu.
But its still huge numbers, and heartbreaking.

I dont think any of us are going to be unaffected by this bug unfortunately.

Society will collapse, particularly in a Globalised world. Imagine people in front line services and utilities not turning up to work?

How long would a Power Grid stay up? How long would water systems still run? How long would food still be delivered to the stores with an infection rate that we are seeing in China?

Also, consider this.

China is pretty much a Totalitarian state that is throwing all its resources at this and can't control it. The people there are much more pliant than Western "free" folk so we haven't seen riots or mass panic.

Can you imagine trying to control this in Western Democracies if the infection rates are close to what we are seeing in China?

MD1990

wakka12 wrote: »

With an R0 value of 4 ,and a hospitalisation/mortality rate of 10% and 2% respectively, its actually not at all and has the potential to be easily the most devastating pandemic since spanish flu. Hence the crazy measures being implemented in Asian countries, quaratine massive urban areas, being arrested for not wearing face masks, travel bans, business and school closures indefinitely, but okay the boards users saying its actually just the flu know best

in 1918 would have had so many obvious factors which caused it to spread so much more as well as much better medical facilities & ability to avoid spread.

Common sense would tell you this.

I suspect we will go into to lockdown but I dont envisage everyone getting the virus as was stated. If that is not a overreaction I dont know what is.

If we can avoid a major spread until summer we should be ok.

Zenify

All over the papers at the moment "EU warns outbreak poses risk to economy". What about the risk to life? What the hell is going on...?

Timberrrrrrrr

Zenify wrote: »

All over the papers at the moment "EU warns outbreak poses risk to economy". What about the risk to life? What the hell is going on...?

500 deaths wont crush the economy, 500,000 sick could.

Hector Savage

wakka12 wrote: »

1st death in Japan

Number of cases outside China reaches 500

Very worrying, since Japan would have good facilities for dealing with this.

Scrabbles38

Hector Savage wrote: »

Armenia 330+ million population ???

divide that by 100 and you;d be closer ...

What????? America’s population is 330 million

Snow Garden

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

What????? America’s population is 330 million

Yes, you said Armenia which has a population of 3 million.

Armenia has what a population of 330+ million people..
This flu session 19+ million people got it...
180000+ people where hospitalised...
10000+ people died so far...

You are confusing everyone and now yourself.

josip

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Society will collapse, particularly in a Globalised world. Imagine people in front line services and utilities not turning up to work?

How long would a Power Grid stay up? How long would water systems still run? How long would food still be delivered to the stores with an infection rate that we are seeing in China?

Also, consider this.

China is pretty much a Totalitarian state that is throwing all its resources at this and can't control it. The people there are much more pliant than Western "free" folk so we haven't seen riots or mass panic.

Can you imagine trying to control this in Western Democracies if the infection rates are close to what we are seeing in China?

The electricity grid and telco networks would stay up. A lot of monitoring/management can be performed remotely and repairs would usually be in places away from crowds of people.

Water in would probably also be straightforward to maintain.
Water out less so, with workers reluctant to repair/maintain in a potentially contaminated environment.

Hard to know what would happen the health services. But the people working there would be some of the least selfish people in the country and some would see it as their duty to continue working despite the risks.

And it's only a 2% mortality rate, not 50%.

wakka12

MD1990 wrote: »

in 1918 would have had so many obvious factors which caused it to spread so much more as well as much better medical facilities & ability to avoid spread.

Common sense would tell you this.

I suspect we will go into to lockdown but I dont envisage everyone getting the virus as was stated. If that is not a overreaction I dont know what is.

If we can avoid a major spread until summer we should be ok.

It's not such a simple comparison. Many more people have underlying health conditions today, and there are hundreds of millions more people worldwide over 60 than there were then as well, for example.China is a pretty young country compared to say Japan, which will likely experience a much higher death rate than China due to over 25% of the population being 65+

Snow Garden

It's very worrying....

Zenify

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

500 deaths wont crush the economy, 500,000 sick could.

My point was that people dying should be more important than somebody's share portfolio.

josip

Zenify wrote: »

My point was that people dying should be more important than somebody's share portfolio.

Not as easy in reality to disconnect the economy and health.

wakka12

Zenify wrote: »

My point was that people dying should be more important than somebody's share portfolio.

It's only at a certain point that deaths are considered more important than economics/convenience. Cars kill thousands of people daily but they are not banned because of their huge economic/transport/convenience benefits for everyone else

Ulysses Gaze

josip wrote: »

The electricity grid and telco networks would stay up. A lot of monitoring/management can be performed remotely and repairs would usually be in places away from crowds of people.

Water in would probably also be straightforward to maintain.
Water out less so, with workers reluctant to repair/maintain in a potentially contaminated environment.

Hard to know what would happen the health services. But the people working there would be some of the least selfish people in the country and some would see it as their duty to continue working despite the risks.

And it's only a 2% mortality rate, not 50%.

It’s not about Mortality but infection rates and the panic it causes.

Scrabbles38

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yes, you said Armenia which has a population of 3 million.



You are confusing everyone and now yourself.

Sorry spelling mistake bent America

pc7

My husband and I have been discussing this quite a bit this week as I've been picking up extra items (that we will use regardless) that will see us through isolation if needed. The weekend we'll do the same with medicines (OTC meds, vitamins and inhalers etc.) As he said they won't go off, we'll use them over time better to have them. We are normal folk, we are I would like to think quite sensible, we have two smallies and will do whatever it takes to try keep them safe. They are doing great with extra hand washing, hand sanitizers, keeping nails really short etc. all little things that will hopefully help in general for their immunity. One positive for creche is they are fairly hardy now! Nothing to do with panic, just sensible in my humbler.

Timberrrrrrrr

Zenify wrote: »

My point was that people dying should be more important than somebody's share portfolio.

If the economy collapses many more could die. 500,000 sick could potentially cause food & medicine shortages, health services could slow/stop, no police means social unrest, fire services could see blazes out of control due to lack of able bodies firefighters. Risk to economy doesn't just mean some millionaire loses thos years dividends on their shares.

bb12

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135


So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

Is the death in Japan related to the cruise liner passengers?

wakka12

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-mongolia/mongolia-closes-border-to-china-until-march-2-to-stop-virus-idUSB9N28D08U
Mongolian citizens will no longer be able to return home via Chinese border

VinLieger

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135


So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

Those numbers are nowhere near correct and neither are the deaths

VinLieger

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135


So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

Those numbers are nowhere near correct and neither are the deaths, todays spike in both deaths and infections proves the theories that china have been misreporting the real numbers since the start and theres no reason to believe the new methods are giving us the full picture either

bb12

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135


So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

Do to the shear size of China as a country would it not be better to compare it with an area with a similar landmass like Europe? Or even compare with the province of Hubei?

UsBus

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

Sorry spelling mistake bent America

What was it that first interested you in scrabble...?

bb12

VinLieger wrote: »

Those numbers are nowhere near correct and neither are the deaths, todays spike in both deaths and infections proves the theories that china have been misreporting the real numbers since the start and theres no reason to believe the new methods are giving us the full picture either

I didn't mention anything about deaths.

Those are the statistics and percentages currently being published by peer reviewed scientific papers from doctors in the midst of the crisis...that's the only source we can truly rely on at the moment and not hearsay...of course the figures will changes as more facts come to light but these sources are the only true ones you should rely on for information at the moment.

wakka12

Japanese woman who died had not left the country any time recently and has no known links to any infected person

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f395wl/the_woman_in_japan_who_died_of_coronavirus_had/

She is the first non-Chinese national outside China to die from coronavirus.

Zenify

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135


So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

The figures right now are not bad. Nobody is saying that this is really bad right now. It's how fast it is going to spread. This isn't going to stop here, it is going to get worse and that's the problem. This is not contained and it is far to contagious to contain now.

The Spanish flu started with 1 person and 50 million ended up dead. I'm not saying that is going to happen here but your argument is flawed. If they re-release smallpox (nearly happened a few years ago by accident) to just 1 person are you saying it's not a big deal it's just 1 person? It would be a major problem for the world just like this.

bb12

Zenify wrote: »

The figures right now are not bad. Nobody is saying that this is really bad right now. It's how fast it is going to spread. This isn't going to stop here, it is going to get worse and that's the problem. This is not contained and it is far to contagious to contain now.

The Spanish flu started with 1 person and 50 million ended up dead. I'm not saying that is going to happen here but your argument is flawed. If they re-release smallpox (nearly happened a few years ago by accident) to just 1 person are you saying it's not a big deal it's just 1 person? It would be a major problem for the world just like this.

I didn't say it wasn't a big deal...I'm just pointing out that with the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control, the corresponding statistics applied to ireland's population are not currently catastrophic...yes of course this is an evolving situation and numbers will change, but you have to look calmly at the figures before letting panic in...

plus in ireland we're not as crammed in as they are in china's cities. we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc so the chances of it running riot like it did in china for the past 2 months are a lot slimmer here and in western europe in general...as evidenced by the lack of new cases being reported over the last few weeks.

Ms2011

Ms2011 wrote: »

Have on one my Smart Watch. Always at 97%.

Mine pops down to 91-93% when I get a bout of atrial fibrillation. On aspirin for it as I could be prone to strokes and there are very small patches of past damage on brain mri. With these commonplace health issues you have to be a bit careful.

Scrabbles38

UsBus wrote: »

What was it that first interested you in scrabble...?

I’m a front line emergency service worker

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Japanese woman who died had not left the country any time recently and has no known links to any infected person

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f395wl/the_woman_in_japan_who_died_of_coronavirus_had/

As per that reddit link

Jan 21st - Felt unwell
Feb 1st - hospitalised and diagnosed with pneumonia
Feb 12th - condition worsens
Feb 13th - dies and tests positive for Covid19


She wasn’t tested previously?

wakka12

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Is the death in Japan related to the cruise liner passengers?

No, she had not recently left the area of Tokyo she lived in.

And yeh^ that is pretty crazy. Cases like this make me think coronavirus is already circulating worldwide. Seriously this woman was sick with coronavirus for over a week just outside Tokyo the biggest city on earth and didnt infect one other person? it seems unbelievable, and who infected her? And she was in a busy hospital for weeks being touched by probably dozens of staff who didnt know she had coronavirus? She was also infectious for at least several days before 21st January,almost a month ago, and that means the person who infected her who was travelling in Tokyo had coronavirus as far back as 21st January and infected her, and that person could have had the virus in Tokyo for weeks before that even.

There were just 240 confirmed cases in all of China by 21st January, it wasnt even confirmed whether it could spread from human to human then, but it had already occurred in Tokyo days prior.

Mic 1972

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135


So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

The number of infected people in China is doubling on a weekly basis

Ficheall

bb12 wrote: »

the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control

How many millions of people have they on lock-down?

bb12 wrote: »

we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc

Citation needed.

Zenify

bb12 wrote: »

I didn't say it wasn't a big deal...I'm just pointing out that with the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control, the corresponding statistics applied to ireland's population are not currently catastrophic...yes of course this is an evolving situation and numbers will change, but you have to look calmly at the figures before letting panic in...

plus in ireland we're not as crammed in as they are in china's cities. we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc so the chances of it running riot like it did in china for the past 2 months are a lot slimmer here and in western europe in general...as evidenced by the lack of new cases being reported over the last few weeks.

I agree with all of that. So what would constitute "panic"? I agree we shouldn't panic but we do need to prepare and be on guard.

bb12

bb12 wrote: »

I didn't say it wasn't a big deal...I'm just pointing out that with the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control, the corresponding statistics applied to ireland's population are not currently catastrophic...yes of course this is an evolving situation and numbers will change, but you have to look calmly at the figures before letting panic in...

plus in ireland we're not as crammed in as they are in china's cities. we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc so the chances of it running riot like it did in china for the past 2 months are a lot slimmer here and in western europe in general...as evidenced by the lack of new cases being reported over the last few weeks.

One of the reasons I will be glad to get on my Namibia trip-it has an extremely low density population, whilst having fairly good sanitation with its Germanic element. At least I’m trying to comfort myself about these things. If the small group of us get through the flights without contamination we’ll be as safe as anywhere could be. Maybe I’ll stay there but it’s quite an expensive place

VinLieger

bb12 wrote: »

I didn't mention anything about deaths.

Those are the statistics and percentages currently being published by peer reviewed scientific papers from doctors in the midst of the crisis...that's the only source we can truly rely on at the moment and not hearsay...of course the figures will changes as more facts come to light but these sources are the only true ones you should rely on for information at the moment.

LOL, these are not peer reviewed scientific papers by any stretch of the imagination. They are the figures being published by the chinese government who we know for a fact now are not adhering to modern western or global medical reporting standards. For example they do not record all illnesses on a death cert like literally everyone else does which is why china with a population of 1.3 billion had less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths compared to the US who has 350 million population and 61k flu related deaths.

Trying to extrapolate anything out of the numbers china are giving out is absolutely useless.

cnocbui

silverharp wrote: »

the high critical is more worrying. I guess one on the many unknowns is how it affects a European population? , it may not be as severe here...here's hoping.

Asian males are more susceptible to the virus due to having more of the targeted receptors in their lungs.

bb12

VinLieger wrote: »

LOL, these are not peer reviewed scientific papers by any stretch of the imagination. They are the figures being published by the chinese government who we know for a fact now are not adhering to modern western or global medical reporting standards. For example they do not record all illnesses on a death cert like literally everyone else does which is why china with a population of 1.3 billion had less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths compared to the US who has 350 million population and 61k flu related deaths.

Trying to extrapolate anything out of the numbers china are giving out is absolutely useless.

Those figures and statistics are not coming from the chinese government.

They are coming from the likes of the Lancet and Jama (The Journal of the American Medical Association)

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

One of the reasons I will be glad to get on my Namibia trip-it has an extremely low density population, whilst having fairly good sanitation with its Germanic element. At least I’m trying to comfort myself about these things. If the small group of us get through the flights without contamination we’ll be as safe as anywhere could be. Maybe I’ll stay there but it’s quite an expensive place

I'd be more worried about having to use airports to get to the destination than the population density there.

Zenify

cnocbui wrote: »

Asian males are more susceptible to the virus due to having more of the targeted receptors in their lungs.

This is being mentioned a few places but is their proof they are more susceptible?