new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

BanditLuke

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The reason is got out of hand in china is because nothing was done to stop the spread at the beginning. Other countries are implementing quarantines and contact tracing etc as soon as cases are being diagnosed. People are aware that they should take measures to not get sick. All those huge predicted numbers are worst case scenarios (10s of millions infected in the uk for example), as in if no preventative measures are taken and are very unlikely to come to pass. Of course they make better headlines though. You dont think governments have been planning for these things. I mean there are literally people whose job it is just to do that.

There are literally people who's job it is to run the HSE and look how that operates.

fritzelly

Today's WHO briefing - starting very shortly (late as usual)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34s6hIIS8cI

odyssey06

odyssey06 wrote: »

And especially if we are talking about a respiratory disease, levels of air pollution if significant enough to have weakened \ damaged lungs could be a factor.
Wuhan's seems to rate moderate to poor.
https://aqicn.org/city/wuhan/

Beijing and Shanghai have appalling air quality. They’re the only cities in China I have visited, but you can see a thick smog emanating from Shanghai when going up their tower and indeed arriving by ship.

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Though it is true that differing Ethnicity can have an outcome on how you are affected by the Flu ... as evidenced by the severe effect Spanish Flu had on ethnic populations.

A recent study on the Maori population:
Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3–5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310086/

Probably due to immunological naivety. The youngest and fittest dropped down faster than the older people who had weathered previous influenza. The cytokine storm, a super-strong kind of immunological reaction, can be the very thing that kills. A healthy person who has weathered similar viruses before “knows” better how to deal with the virus without killing the patient, where the immune system has been educated. I suspect those relatively few individuals who have survived SARS 1 may have dome relative protection from developing CoVid-19. This is something that will possibly emerge.

Wibbs

Deleted User wrote: »

I suspect those relatively few individuals who have survived SARS

Actually taking overall figures nearly 90% of people who caught SARS survived, though it it did kill half of all elderly patients who caught it. Some of the survivors still suffer chronic physical(and some mental)debilitation down to today.

BloodBath

Apologies in advance for this long post but I wanted to reply to a few since yesterday.

Deleted User wrote: »

You can catch the flu one year and catch again the next year. It's does change around a good bit hence why you have to get the flu vaccine every year.

Nope. Not the same strain. Only if it mutated. You can catch 2 different strains in the same winter season though. The flu vaccine only protects from last years strain so it's pretty useless against the current virus.

Sean 18 wrote: »

Shocking that RTÉ are completely ignoring this most of the older population won't think there's a problem when they won't hear it on the news

It's not a problem until there's a confirmed case in Ireland which may not happen at all. They still should probably be asking people to be a bit more vigilant with hygiene to be on the safe side.

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ahhhh the WHO are on the ground. Harder to hide the dead bodies then. So the infected number had to jump to balance the numbers.

Off to the conspiracy theory forum with you.

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Society will collapse, particularly in a Globalised world. Imagine people in front line services and utilities not turning up to work?

How long would a Power Grid stay up? How long would water systems still run? How long would food still be delivered to the stores with an infection rate that we are seeing in China?

Also, consider this.

China is pretty much a Totalitarian state that is throwing all its resources at this and can't control it. The people there are much more pliant than Western "free" folk so we haven't seen riots or mass panic.

Can you imagine trying to control this in Western Democracies if the infection rates are close to what we are seeing in China?

Let's put things in perspective here. Wuhan has a population of 11 million people fairly densely populated and there's only roughly 60k confirmed cases there. This is largely thanks to the Chinese efforts to contain but it's still a very low number. Granted a number that is still increasing despite the efforts.

VinLieger wrote: »

Your starting figure which is where you based your infection percentage off is coming directly from the chinese government also none of the lancet or jama papers have been peer reviewed yet and they are not being written by doctors on the ground in wuhan.

In fact the lancet and jama papers estimate the infection rate to be at least triple whats being reported.

Also your methodology of trying to extrapolate it out of china's entire population shows a complete misunderstanding of how and why hubei province is in such dire circumstances compared to everywhere else.

If that is the case which I have no doubt of and have been saying all along then the mortality rate is far below 1%. The Chinese can only report confirmed cases.

pc7 wrote: »

I don’t know how reliable the source is, so will delete if anyone knows if fake news/bad site, scary if true

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227951785073090566?s=21

Why is it scary? They are trying to contain a deadly virus.

wakka12

2 more confirmed in India, 1 in texas USA

http://www.donga.com/news/article/all/20200213/99665772/1
Several officials in north korea have been executed for not obeying quarantine procedures..but sure maybe this is not even newsworthy given where it occurred!

Timberrrrrrrr

Just got this text message from my old doctors here in the UK

If you have travelled to China or been in contact with Coronavirus in the last two weeks and develop symptoms, please call 111 for further advice. Thank you Peelhouse Medical Plaza

one armed dwarf

I see that Lewisham has a case, my old UK home not far from there either.

The amount of people going in and out of east london is scary to think about

4068ac1elhodqr

No great surprise, despite public information and information alerts over in the uk:

The 1st case of coronavirus was diagnosed in London after a woman arrived unannounced in an 'Uber' at a busy A&E, after flying in to Heathrow from China.
She “self-presented” at Lewisham (slightly busy and densely populated area) hospital’s A&E unit last Sunday afternoon.

It gets worse:
The woman was sent home in an ambulance pending the results of the test, and on Wednesday when they returned positive, she was taken to St Thomas’ hospital for specialist treatment.

Two staff members from the hospital in south London are now in isolation at home after coming into contact with the woman.

An litany of errors and elevated risk from just a single individual.

Timberrrrrrrr

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Just got this text message from my old doctors here in the UK

A doctors surgery in Islington is closed today for a deep clean as they had a patient there yesterday who was showing symptoms. This is what will cause a big strain on the system. Calling ahead is vital.

Good idea to text all numbers they had on record.

Call Me Jimmy

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I see that Lewisham has a case, my old UK home not far from there either.

The amount of people going in and out of east london is scary to think about

Doesn't help that the reporting has largely been 'It's Just A Flu Bro'. Hence, people who do get it often don't know things like 'don't get in an uber and go to the hospital, sit in the waiting room in london' etc.

one armed dwarf

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I see that Lewisham has a case, my old UK home not far from there either.

The amount of people going in and out of east london is scary to think about

Is that a confirmed case?

I’m from South East London. Went to school in Lewisham and have family still living not too far away.

Feels a bit more real right now.

Wibbs

Wibbs wrote: »

Actually taking overall figures nearly 90% of people who caught SARS survived, though it it did kill half of all elderly patients who caught it. Some of the survivors still suffer chronic physical(and some mental)debilitation down to today.

What I meant really was the few people overall in the world who acquired and survived SARS 1. I’m wondering if those, who recovered from it back to a healthy state, will be found to have some Relative immunity to getting full blown SARS 2.

1800_Ladladlad

There appears to be alot of this kind of activity going on thats making its way out online

https://twitter.com/BasedPoland/status/1227790787729149952

Call Me Jimmy

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’m from South East London. Went to school in Lewisham and have family still living not too far away.

Feels a bit more real right now.

That's the point us CoNSpIRaCY ThEoRiSts have been trying to raise. The pattern has repeated from wuhan, to other cities to the whole province, and out across china and into other countries. Everything is fine until it isn't. The scale of the reaction in China is unprecedented. Each time it goes to a new place everyone keeps getting shot down for saying 'this is a big deal'. It's not to be panicked but to be aware. The main problem has been how little we know about the disease, partly because china for a lot of different reasons haven't been as transparent as they could be and so there is further lag in understanding and interpreting the situation.

So while we are in the situation of not knowing enough about the disease, any place that it pops up will also see reflexive shut downs of schools, work places etc.

Indeed a couple of days ago Indeed told their staff to work from home. More of that will come in the UK very shortly.

theguzman

Chilling reading, we don't know the origin of this virus, but the spectre of it being manmade is all too possible to discount.

https://reason.com/2006/04/03/to-save-the-planet-kill-90-per/

MD1990

WHO said that the rise in clinical cases yesterday was cumulative & not all in one day.

They expect it to come down today. Also the the clinical deaths over 100 all had Pneumonia not 100% confirmed as Coronavirus

pc7

BloodBath wrote: »

Why is it scary? They are trying to contain a deadly virus.

Because if you didn't like Billy living down the road you could report him, if some of the images of people being taken away are valid you could have well people taken into quarantine with 1000's of sick people. They may not check you have a fever, the testing hasn't been reliable so I am not sure of such tactics tbh.

4068ac1elhodqr

Also in Ldn, someone marched out of a block of flats in Paddington by the Hazmats this morning.

One of the staff was said to have told bystanders there was 'a confirmed case in the building' and asked if people could refrain from taking pictures.
Then again the press will always be 'creative' with stories and headlines for weeks and months to come.

Kermit.de.frog

theguzman wrote: »

Chilling reading, we don't know the origin of this virus, but the spectre of it being manmade is all too possible to discount.

https://reason.com/2006/04/03/to-save-the-planet-kill-90-per/

I'd go with not man made but possibly manipulated and accidentally released.

You have to look at the measures China has taken and how urgently and widespread they were...you don't take those sort of really draconian measures unless its serious.

Because of the nature of Chinese governance it's hard to take anything 'official' seriously which adds to apprehension abroad.

If they formally requested major international assistance it would do a lot to dampen concerns.

gozunda

Department of Health currently examining ‘forced isolation’ of coronavirus patients according to the Irish Times

I think it is probably time for public education broadcasts to begin. Here I am am simply going from past experience of viral respiratory illness in my 59 years, a lifelong keen interest in biology, and what I have been taking in; I conjecture some sort of broadcast to help people to differentiate their illness from less harmful viruses when it comes to prioritising medical care and prevent people unnecessarily into contact with infection:

Hypothetical type of broadcast...

“Are you miserable with a runny nose, pressure in your sinuses, but it feels like the horrible cold you got last year? - then you probably do just have a cold. Stay away from medical facilities unless you develop further symptoms.

Do you have a sudden onset of fever, aches and pains, a sense of exhaustion, and a dry cough? - you may have the seasonal influenza or you may possibly have CoVid-19. It is time to keep in touch with the doctor and your relatives, but avoid unnecessary physical contact.

Are you also short of breath, elderly, pregnant, young or have a chronic illness? Please seek medical advice today. If you are very ill, contact the ambulance service and advise of your symptoms.

Helpline Xxxx xxxx. Or visit www.xxxxxxxx. .ie etc”

There are probably people in some boardroom formulating this alongside us

pc7

Deleted User wrote: »

There are probably people in some boardroom formulating this alongside us

I really hope so Cat!

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

I really hope so Cat!

I’ll offer my services. I do believe there would be somebody in charge of monitoring social media to get a sense of how people are reacting, and this is the type of suggestion they might take into consideration.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I think it is probably time for public education broadcasts to begin. Here I am am simply going from past experience of viral respiratory illness in my 59 years, a lifelong keen interest in biology, and what I have been taking in; I conjecture some sort of broadcast to help people to differentiate their illness from less harmful viruses when it comes to prioritising medical care and prevent people unnecessarily into contact with infection:

Hypothetical type of broadcast...

“Are you miserable with a runny nose, pressure in your sinuses, but it feels like the horrible cold you got last year? - then you probably do just have a cold. Stay away from medical facilities unless you develop further symptoms.

Do you have a sudden onset of fever, aches and pains, a sense of exhaustion, and a dry cough? - you may have the seasonal influenza or you may possibly have CoVid-19. It is time to keep in touch with the doctor and your relatives, but avoid unnecessary physical contact.

Are you also short of breath, elderly, pregnant, young or have a chronic illness? Please seek medical advice today. If you are very ill, contact the ambulance service and advise of your symptoms.

Helpline Xxxx xxxx. Or visit www.xxxxxxxx. .ie etc”

There are probably people in some boardroom formulating this alongside us

It's 2020, my spartphone is over a 1000 times faster than the first computer I owned, and the camera on it is more sensitive than the Nikon DSLR I bought a few years ago.

Why, for fecks sake, is there not a Covid-19 hotline manned by doctors who you can video chat with and describe symptoms you have, before you go to the doctor and infect everyone else in the waiting room? Even if their diagnosis is inconclusive, they could email your boss a sicknote, saying "Dave will be self quarantining for a week due to possible Corona".

Oh yeah, shortage of doctors, blah blah, no joined up thinking, zero aptitude for preparedness blah blah.

Somedaythefire

Deleted User wrote: »

It's 2020, my spartphone is over a 1000 times faster than the first computer I owned, and the camera on it is more sensitive than the Nikon DSLR I bought a few years ago.

Why, for fecks sake, is there not a Covid-19 hotline manned by doctors who you can video chat with and describe symptoms you have, before you go to the doctor and infect everyone else in the waiting room? Even if their diagnosis is inconclusive, they could email your boss a sicknote, saying "Dave will be self quarantining for a week due to possible Corona".

Oh yeah, shortage of doctors, blah blah, no joined up thinking, zero aptitude for preparedness blah blah.

Laya have care on call, which is exactly this. Every time I get sick I use that rather than going to the doctors.

Kermit.de.frog

gozunda wrote: »

Department of Health currently examining ‘forced isolation’ of coronavirus patients according to the Irish Times

Why do they need legal changes!?

We don't have a government too.

gozunda

I see lots of people commenting on handwashing in the thread. Always good to remember that frequent hand washing (a very good idea btw) and the use of alcohol based handwashes can dry the skin excessively. This carries a risk of dry skin and chapped hands which may allow bacteria etc to get through the skin barrier.

Good idea to use a decent hand moisturiser regularly to prevent the skin from excessive drying.

gozunda

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Why do they need legal changes!?

We don't have a government too.

Dont know! Maybe for when Billy down the road refuses to play nicely and refuses to self quarantine?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Whichever government gets in are probably going to wish they hadn't - if this thing kicks off here ...

seamus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Why do they need legal changes!?

Because forced isolation generally isn't a thing here.

You cannot force someone to attend hospital or stay there.

The hospital can attempt to go to court to try and save you from yourself, but in general if you are of remotely sound mind and can leave the hospital building, there's fvck all that hospital staff, Gardai or HSE can do about it, no matter what the consequences.

Kermit.de.frog

seamus wrote: »

Because forced isolation generally isn't a thing here.

You cannot force someone to attend hospital or stay there.

The hospital can attempt to go to court to try and save you from yourself, but in general if you are of remotely sound mind and can leave the hospital building, there's fvck all that hospital staff, Gardai or HSE can do about it, no matter what the consequences.

This is all a bit Irish isn't it? So we have no mechanism like every other country to deal with this?

So if it arrives tomorrow we cant forcibly quarantine?

lol, good luck folks.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's 2020, my spartphone is over a 1000 times faster than the first computer I owned, and the camera on it is more sensitive than the Nikon DSLR I bought a few years ago.

Why, for fecks sake, is there not a Covid-19 hotline manned by doctors who you can video chat with and describe symptoms you have, before you go to the doctor and infect everyone else in the waiting room? Even if their diagnosis is inconclusive, they could email your boss a sicknote, saying "Dave will be self quarantining for a week due to possible Corona".

Oh yeah, shortage of doctors, blah blah, no joined up thinking, zero aptitude for preparedness blah blah.

An infectious diseases nurse specialist could do some of this stuff if we had enough of them. There needs to be a Dep of Health/HSE Twitter account giving sporadic helpful advice on symptoms. Would be quite comforting for somebody ill with a bad cold to feel reassured they probably don’t have CoVid-19. They couldn’t hope to respond to all queries, but monitoring would be very nice if you are horribly ill in bed and trying to keep out of physical contact with others. Maybe an official thread will be started on Talk To in Boards and other sites. This is the place for people in IT, communications and public health to get together.

MadYaker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is all a bit Irish isn't it? So we have no mechanism like every other country to deal with this?

So if it arrives tomorrow we cant forcibly quarantine?

lol, good luck folks.

The Gardai are the only people who can forcibly detain anyone as far as I know? Thats the way it is in every country unless you live in a police state like China. It has barely spread through europe as things stand so I don't think such crazy measures are really needed. This is thread is full of alarmist nonsense. The world must be a very scary place for some of the people posting here.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is all a bit Irish isn't it? So we have no mechanism like every other country to deal with this?

So if it arrives tomorrow we cant forcibly quarantine?

lol, good luck folks.

Let them all out of Mountjoy and use it as a quarantine centre. The folks in there are used to enforcing things with keys and the lime

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

The Gardai are the only people who can forcibly detain anyone as far as I know? Thats the way it is in every country unless you live in a police state like China. It has barely spread through europe as things stand so I don't think such crazy measures are really needed. This is thread is full of alarmist nonsense. The world must be a very scary place for some of the people posting here.

Maybe, but it’s of enough interest for you to take a sniff at the thread

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

I see lots of people commenting on handwashing in the thread. Always good to remember that frequent hand washing (a very good idea btw) and the use of alcohol based handwashes can dry the skin excessively. This carries a risk of dry skin and chapped hands which may allow bacteria etc to get through the skin barrier.

Good idea to use a decent hand moisturiser regularly to prevent the skin from excessive drying.

Some hand held incorporate a moisturiser. I had one beside me from Marks & Spencer.

gozunda

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is all a bit Irish isn't it? So we have no mechanism like every other country to deal with this?

So if it arrives tomorrow we cant forcibly quarantine?

lol, good luck folks.

The UK has just brought this in afaik ...

https://www.metro.news/coronavirus-threat-people-to-face-forced-isolation-in-uk/1906157/

Sierra Oscar

Top story on Bloomberg currently.

Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows

BloodBath

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Top story on Bloomberg currently.

Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows

That should be a good enough headline to stop reading anything on bloomberg tbh. Scaremongering claptrap.

Maybe time to learn how a lot of the media operates. Fear over facts sells more than anything.

bodhrandude

BloodBath wrote: »

That should be a good enough headline to stop reading anything on bloomberg tbh. Scaremongering claptrap.

Its a paywall anyways.

Mic 1972

So far the number of infected people has doubled on a weekly basis, it will interesting to see the count 1 week from now

bodhrandude

MadYaker wrote: »

The Gardai are the only people who can forcibly detain anyone as far as I know? Thats the way it is in every country unless you live in a police state like China. It has barely spread through europe as things stand so I don't think such crazy measures are really needed. This is thread is full of alarmist nonsense. The world must be a very scary place for some of the people posting here.

Just curious, what would it take for you to accept it as a grave situation, Glastonbury cancelled perhaps.

fritzelly

bodhrandude wrote: »

Its a paywall anyways.

http://archive.ph/SIqTI

To paraphrase it might or it might not

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I’ll offer my services. I do believe there would be somebody in charge of monitoring social media to get a sense of how people are reacting, and this is the type of suggestion they might take into consideration.

I’ll take that social media monitoring job thank you very much.

London Underground this morning

cnocbui

gozunda wrote: »

I see lots of people commenting on handwashing in the thread. Always good to remember that frequent hand washing (a very good idea btw) and the use of alcohol based handwashes can dry the skin excessively. This carries a risk of dry skin and chapped hands which may allow bacteria etc to get through the skin barrier.

Good idea to use a decent hand moisturiser regularly to prevent the skin from excessive drying.

The stuff I got from Lidl has Aloe Vera in it along with the 73.5% Ethanol.

ThePopehimself

MadYaker wrote: »

The Gardai are the only people who can forcibly detain anyone as far as I know? Thats the way it is in every country unless you live in a police state like China. It has barely spread through europe as things stand so I don't think such crazy measures are really needed. This is thread is full of alarmist nonsense. The world must be a very scary place for some of the people posting here.

No.
They changed the law in the UK 3 days ago in order to force Quarantine where necessary.
Police in the UK will be able to HANDCUFF suspected coronavirus patients and force them back into or into quarantine where necessary.
The UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock sanctioned the new law as he felt Covid 19 is a 'serious and imminent threat' to the British public.
The announcement has given the government powers to forcibly quarantine victims.

The UK seem happy with the 'Crazy measures'.

cameramonkey

MadYaker wrote: »

The Gardai are the only people who can forcibly detain anyone as far as I know?

What about mental hospitals?

fritzelly

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’ll take that social media monitoring job thank you very much.

London Underground this morning

The look from your man