new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Jaysus.. Hanoi closes schools for another week. Five weeks off now in total. It's a good thing I'm made for early retirement and am perfectly happy sitting around working on this and that.

odyssey06

Duke of Url wrote: »

The Death rates China are reporting based on people who were confirmed to have the Virus.

If you tested positive - got pneumonia you were added to the stats.

Should we add the deaths of people who tested negative who got pneumonia to the stats also?

Maybe they could tell us how many people have died from respitatory related illnesses full stop. Together with previous years figures.
Is there a significant spike in pnuemonia related deaths?

hmmm

Duke of Url wrote: »

The Death rates China are reporting based on people who were confirmed to have the Virus.

If you tested positive - got pneumonia you were added to the stats.

Should we add the deaths of people who tested negative who got pneumonia to the stats also?

That's actually what they've started doing in Hubei (not sure about outside this region). The reason for the recent jump in deaths being recorded was that they went back through recent pneumonia deaths that were either not tested, or had a 'negative' to ncov (the tests unfortunately are not perfect).

FishOnABike

VinLieger wrote: »

The best example of this is china with a population of 1.3 billion officially recorded less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths last year, the US with a population of 350 million had 61000.

If we assume a similar rate of seasonal flu related deaths in China as the US there should be approx. 226,570 (1,300,000,000 / 350,000 * 61000 = 226571).

When they only report 200 seasonal flu related deaths one has to view any of their statistics about SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 with extreme scepticism. Their actions would indicate that the problem is far greater than their official statistics indicate.

Duke of Url

VinLieger wrote: »

Lol you believe they have done this honestly considering everything up until now. There is literally now way the tiny adjustment they made could correctly account for the real amount of deaths that the infection rate and critical care required to treat have likely caused.

Why do you think they deserve the benefit of the doubt after trying to cover this up, arrest doctors warning about it, misreporting statistics for weeks and refusing to let external observers in till very recently.

Lets face it. With the Coronavirus. You have 0 facts that back up for statement that China are covering up the death rate in relation to this virus.

SeaBreezes

hmmm wrote: »

That's actually what they've started doing in Hubei (not sure about outside this region). The reason for the recent jump in deaths being recorded was that they went back through recent pneumonia deaths that were either not tested, or had a 'negative' to ncov (the tests unfortunately are not perfect).

From now they are including clinically diagnosed who then die in new deaths.
They haven't adjusted historically.
Just since WHO arrived to observe.

Duke of Url

odyssey06 wrote: »

Maybe they could tell us how many people have died from respitatory related illnesses full stop. Together with previous years figures.
Is there a significant spike in pnuemonia related deaths?

This Virus is still a few weeks old.

Isnt that analysis more relevant when this is over?

The answer could be no today and then Yes in 4 weeks time.

People will just say "but..but...but.... China said it didnt increase only 4 weeks ago! Liars.......

VinLieger

Duke of Url wrote: »

Lets face it. With the Coronavirus. You have 0 facts that back up for statement that China are covering up the death rate in relation to this virus.

Except they just admitted they were doing it up until two days ago by adjusting the figures..... Also they have been trying to cover up every aspect of it since it started.

Then lets look at their history, it took them 3 months to tell the WHO about the SARS outbreak, they are one of the most secretive and authoritarian regimes on the planet who are controlling social media and punishing anyone who contradicts the party line..... But yes its me who has no evidence of them covering up the real facts....

hmmm

Duke of Url wrote: »

Lets face it. With the Coronavirus. You have 0 facts that back up for statement that China are covering up the death rate in relation to this virus.

Agreed. And if everytime someone quotes figures we hear "oh well those are fake" than we're just into conspiracy theories and a useless thread. We can only work with the figures we have.

Part of the issue with the figures is that this is fast-moving, and there is limits on testing and hospital capacity, meaning it leaves an open-door for conspiracy theorists when new hospitals open or new tests are done and the numbers jump.

There's a WHO team recently arrived on the ground in China with apparently some very good people involved, and they will no doubt be reporting back if they are concerned the figures are incorrect.

pc7

Human impact aside, the financials must be crippling China now for parts to be shut down so long.

hmmm

VinLieger wrote: »

Except they just admitted they were doing it up until two days ago by adjusting the figures...

They adjusted the figures by including people who had tested negative, but had clear symptoms. I'm not sure what more they can be expected to do - if anything the new figures are going to start over-stating cases in time.

VinLieger

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed. And if everytime someone quotes figures we hear "oh well those are fake" than we're just into conspiracy theories and a useless thread. We can only work with the figures we have.

Part of the issue with the figures is that this is fast-moving, and there is limits on testing and hospital capacity, meaning it leaves an open-door for conspiracy theorists when new hospitals open or new tests are done and the numbers jump.

There's a WHO team recently arrived on the ground in China with apparently some very good people involved, and they will no doubt be reporting back if they are concerned the figures are incorrect.

The point is not that they are fake but that they shouldnt be relied on for decision making and viewed with extreme skepticism.

odyssey06

Duke of Url wrote: »

This Virus is still a few weeks old.

Isnt that analysis more relevant when this is over?

The answer could be no today and then Yes in 4 weeks time.

People will just say "but..but...but.... China said it didnt increase only 4 weeks ago! Liars.......

No. If there is a significant spike in respiratory related deaths when they know a new virus is circulating and they dont call that out it is concealment.
Of course it is relevant.

VinLieger

hmmm wrote: »

They adjusted the figures by including people who had tested negative, but had clear symptoms. I'm not sure what more they can be expected to do - if anything the new figures are going to start over-stating cases in time.

What can be expected is for them to change their reporting nationally for deaths and start recording them properly, these changes you are lauding are only happening in wuhan

Duke of Url

odyssey06 wrote: »

No. If there is a significant spike in respiratory related deaths when they know a new virus is circulating and they dont call that out it is concealment.
Of course it is relevant.

So your saying that all respiratory related deaths minus the average from last year and the year before now need to be added to the stats for Coronavirus Death rate?

MD1990

How many cases would Ireland or the UK need to go into lockdown I wonder?

SeaBreezes

VinLieger wrote: »

What can be expected is for them to change their reporting nationally for deaths and start recording them properly, these changes you are lauding are only happening in wuhan

AND only happened 3 months in when WHO landed on the ground...

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Looks like the English are racist too father :pac: (please ignore source)


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8003387/Coronavirus-panic-leaves-Londons-Chinese-district-empty.html

Looking at public snaps the entire West End had an equal amount of footfall. Probably due to the weather as much as anything.

Should also be said that patrons of Chinatown restaurants would probably be at least 60% Chinese or of Chinese descent.

pc7

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Looking at public snaps the entire West End had an equal amount of footfall. Probably due to the weather as much as anything.
t.

Knowing DM probably took photos at midnight too.

VinLieger

Duke of Url wrote: »

So your saying that all respiratory related deaths minus the average from last year and the year before now need to be added to the stats for Coronavirus Death rate?

Theres actually no point thanks to once again how they record deaths making these historical numbers next to useless

SeaBreezes

Duke of Url wrote: »

So your saying that all respiratory related deaths minus the average from last year and the year before now need to be added to the stats for Coronavirus Death rate?

The Japanese man who died in Wuhan had viral pneumonia as his recorded death. Are YOU saying it wasn't Coronavirus just an incredible coincidence?

Odd, how many people dying of viral pneumonia in Wuhan this year..

hmmm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsTkBsoi0EE

cnocbui

The Camera and Imaging Products Association have cancelled their annual trade show in Japan, due to the virus. It is to cameras what the Barcelona event is to mobile phones.

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Knowing DM probably took photos at midnight too.

Well they could go to 4:50am Thursday and see 4 drunks fighting. Plus the man taking the snap video from an apartment telling them to go to sleep!

Duke of Url

VinLieger wrote: »

What can be expected is for them to change their reporting nationally for deaths and start recording them properly, these changes you are lauding are only happening in wuhan

Where are your facts that the Coronavirus stats are not being reported based on the requirements of the data needed by the WHO declaring a global health emergency.

Are the WHO now implicated in the "False" Data considering they are in China and reporting the same numbers?

It looks like their Situation Reports where they have people on the ground is making them guilty.


https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200213-sitrep-24-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9a7406a4_4

Timberrrrrrrr

SeaBreezes wrote: »

You couldn't make this sh*t up.. if it was in Dean R Koontz book it'd be deemed too fictional..

Was this one of the 'horsemen' bus drivers who had no masks and were sent home to self isolate for 10 days?

Stephen Kings The Stand is one of my favourite books, I have often pondered when (not even if) the accidental release of a virus would happen. Is this our "Stand"? Fecked if I know but if/when that day does come to fruition I hope to be well.in the ground.

Duke of Url

SeaBreezes wrote: »

The Japanese man who died in Wuhan had viral pneumonia as his recorded death. Are YOU saying it wasn't Coronavirus just an incredible coincidence?

Odd, how many people dying of viral pneumonia in Wuhan this year..

Where do I find the data from the years before?

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

That's actually what they've started doing in Hubei (not sure about outside this region). The reason for the recent jump in deaths being recorded was that they went back through recent pneumonia deaths that were either not tested, or had a 'negative' to ncov (the tests unfortunately are not perfect).

Can you tell the Guardian because it means their reporting is wrong :pac:

1d ago
11:39
Daily death toll rises sharply
In addition to the rise of new cases, there has also been a significant rise in the death toll in the past 24 hours.

More than 240 deaths were recorded on Wednesday (figures published on Thursday). This compares with 97 deaths the previous day.

There has been no change to the way deaths are recorded, so this really is a significant increase in one day.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-deaths-in-china-pass-1300-with-jump-in-cases-live-news?page=with:block-5e449f428f086a28115aac07

VinLieger

Duke of Url wrote: »

Where are your facts that the Coronavirus stats are not being reported based on the requirements of the data needed by the WHO declaring a global health emergency.

Are the WHO now implicated in the "False" Data considering they are in China and reporting the same numbers?

It looks like their Situation Reports where they have people on the ground is making them guilty.


https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200213-sitrep-24-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9a7406a4_4

Its been well theorised the WHO are placating China because if they were to call a spade a spade and say anything bad about their actions they would be locked out completely.

China already threaten to withold funding so as to not allow Taiwan participate in the WHO and they are one of the largest contributors.

So yes while I would not say the WHO are maliciously involved in the under reporting they are simply doing what they have to to keep China working with them.

Ill ask again why do you feel China deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt given literally all their governments history as regarding hiding things from their own people and the rest of the world

Every day we get a new version of events that can be summarised in either of the below statements:

It is worse than we thought

OR

It’s not as bad as we thought

Zenify

Dr. John

How to protect yourself and family

Basic stuff like washing hands etc.

https://youtu.be/IkdPFCStA38

SeaBreezes

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Stephen Kings The Stand is one of my favourite books, I have often pondered when (not even if) the accidental release of a virus would happen. Is this our "Stand"? Fecked if I know but if/when that day does come to fruition I hope to be well.in the ground.

Ah no, while I do think this is a serious virus, the world won't stop turning.
Life goes on and 80% will just have a flu.

Its Terry Pratchett comes to my mind, with Pestilence in London driving a bus around..

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

Can you tell the Guardian because it means their reporting is wrong :pac:

If that's what they are reporting, it is wrong.

"Any suspected cases with pneumonia-related computerized tomography (CT) scan results are counted as clinically diagnosed cases, according to the latest version of the diagnosis and treatment scheme released by the National Health Commission. Experts said that would include those who had yet to be tested positive in the nucleic acid testing (NAT), which previously was the threshold for hospitals to receive patients and give treatment.

The provincial health commission said the diagnosis criteria revision was made to give those who had been clinically diagnosed the timely and standard treatment in order to further improve the treatment success rate.

"These 'yet-to-test-positive' patients could easily spread the virus in society. Categorizing them as confirmed cases will lead to quarantine and hospitalization, which would be good for both the patients and the public," said Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention."

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Every day we get a new version of events that can be summarised in either of the below statements:

It is worse than we thought

OR

It’s not as bad as we thought

It's worse than that, it's physics Jim!

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

Every day we get a new version of events that can be summarised in either of the below statements:

It is worse than we thought

OR

It’s not as bad as we thought

I think China watching isn't much point at this stage, aside from things related to travel. In terms of whether a global pandemic ensues, or not, it's the numbers outside of China that matter. They aren't climbing rapidly at an alarming rate, so I am hopeful it has been prevented.

Duke of Url

VinLieger wrote: »

Its been well theorised the WHO are placating China because if they were to call a spade a spade and say anything bad about their actions they would be locked out completely.

China already threaten to withold funding so as to not allow Taiwan participate in the WHO and they are one of the largest contributors.

So yes while I would not say the WHO are maliciously involved in the under reporting they are simply doing what they have to to keep China working with them.

This is tinfoil hat stuff.

There is no Global Standard to report on the Coronavirus Stats.

Until there is an agreement GLOBALLY on how the stats and the data should be reported we can only go by what is available.

There is no right or wrong data being reported until it is standardised based on everyones requirement.

If individuals or countries want different formats then the numbers reported in each country will be wrong in comparison to the next country.

Timberrrrrrrr

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's worse than that, it's physics Jim!

It's worse than that hes dead Jim!


(Ya canny change the laws of physics)



Thanks, now that's stuck in my head for the day

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ah no, while I do think this is a serious virus, the world won't stop turning.
Life goes on and 80% will just have a flu.

Its Terry Pratchett comes to my mind, with Pestilence in London driving a bus around..

I hate the word “flu” being bandied about by the general populace of the great unwashed Forgive be, it’s as an old hobby horse that I squirm when anyone describes a seasonal respiratory virus that they consider worse than a mere coryza and less than the plague as pertaining to the specific class of virus Influenza. I get myself into terrible bother when I take on someone walking around with a nasty old cold and telling me they have “the flu”, pain the the @ss that I can be

VinLieger

Duke of Url wrote: »

This is tinfoil hat stuff.

There is no Global Standard to report on the Coronavirus Stats.

Until there is an agreement GLOBALLY on how the stats and the data should be reported we can only go by what is available.

There is no right or wrong data being reported until it is standardised based on everyones requirement.

If individuals or countries want different formats then the numbers reported in each country will be wrong in comparison to the next country.

Theres a basic global standard to report on infections and deaths that china do not follow why should this be treated differently just to suit your argument? As far as im aware nobody else records deaths like they do.

Timberrrrrrrr

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I hate the word “flu” being bandied about by the general populace of the great unwashed Forgive be, it’s as an old hobby horse that I squirm when anyone describes a seasonal respiratory virus that they consider worse than a mere coryza and less than the plague as pertaining to the specific class of virus Influenza. I get myself into terrible bother when I take someone walking around with a nasty old cold and telling me they have “the flu”, pain the the @ss that I can be

Unless its man flu, that's a real thing

wakka12

9 more cases in Singapore. The highest total in one day since yesterday, which was 8

Snow Garden

Deleted User wrote: »

Every day we get a new version of events that can be summarised in either of the below statements:

It is worse than we thought

OR

It’s not as bad as we thought

It's very worrying....

partyguinness

Deleted User wrote: »

I hate the word “flu” being bandied about by the general populace of the great unwashed Forgive be, it’s as an old hobby horse that I squirm when anyone describes a seasonal respiratory virus that they consider worse than a mere coryza and less than the plague as pertaining to the specific class of virus Influenza. I get myself into terrible bother when I take someone walking around with a nasty old cold and telling me they have “the flu”, pain the the @ss that I can be

I had the flu once. It was fecking awful- I was in bed from Monday evening until Saturday (save an ill fated attempt to go to work Thursday afternoon loaded up in Lemsip etc but sent away drowning in sweat and then the next morning in the doctor's surgery wrapped up in winter clothes and shaking even though it was 20 degrees and the middle of July).

I lost half a stone in weight through sweating in bed. Went through several bed sheets and t shirts that all had to be binned.

The closest I have ever felt to dying.

Duke of Url

VinLieger wrote: »

Theres a basic global standard to report on infections and deaths that china do not follow why should this be treated differently just to suit your argument? As far as im aware nobody else records deaths like they do.

Are you guessing this or is this database easily accessible to view.

I hope its not the WHO global standard. They are in bed with China.

Duke of Url

Snow Garden wrote: »

It's very worrying....

which part lol

Ulysses Gaze

Duke of Url wrote: »

This is tinfoil hat stuff.

There is no Global Standard to report on the Coronavirus Stats.

Until there is an agreement GLOBALLY on how the stats and the data should be reported we can only go by what is available.

There is no right or wrong data being reported until it is standardised based on everyones requirement.

If individuals or countries want different formats then the numbers reported in each country will be wrong in comparison to the next country.

And you don't think that for political, economic and cultural reasons (saving face), that China may not be so forthcoming with releasing the real data?

We are talking about a de facto Totalitarian state here.

VinLieger

Duke of Url wrote: »

They are in bed with China.

Ahh strawmanning the last gasp of a dying argument

Timberrrrrrrr

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Unless its man flu, that's a real thing

I remember somebody I worked with said, in his strong Dublin accent, “da fookin flu jab doesn’t wurk, I fookin got da flu four toimes last year-ar”.

“Like he’ll you did”, I replied, having to dodge a blast of angry verbal diarrhoea.

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

I hate the word “flu” being bandied about by the general populace of the great unwashed Forgive be, it’s as an old hobby horse that I squirm when anyone describes a seasonal respiratory virus that they consider worse than a mere coryza and less than the plague as pertaining to the specific class of virus Influenza. I get myself into terrible bother when I take on someone walking around with a nasty old cold and telling me they have “the flu”, pain the the @ss that I can be

Excuse me! I wash! Sometimes more than once a week!!!! :-)

In allowing the Westerdam to dock, Cambodia are putting one of their lesser known holiday destinations, Sihanoukville, firmly on the tourist map for when this calamity has passed. People will think positively of the place, and could bring a bit of future prosperity to a seriously impoverished but lovely country. Have not been to that port city seaside resort, but I did get to stay in beautiful hotels in Phnom Pen and Siem Reap. Mmm, the food. Added tourism might help the country invest in medical care for their citizens, which is presently extremely poor.