new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Nijmegen

Nijmegen wrote: »

"Chinese student in isolation in Waterford amid coronavirus fears" (Irish Examiner).

Likely nothing to worry about in this case until you actually get a test back, but it is worth noting that the third level institutions have just come back into term and do nowadays have a lot of students from China who will have gone home for the holidays.

No signs of illness. That's good at least.

Duke of Url

Deleted User wrote: »

I dont understand why there isnt a quarantine period now for all entering Europe from infected areas

So the EU would close its borders to France, US, Australia and so on?

My university has strongly suggested that I do not return to China for the next semester (24th Feb), and students have been told not to return early. This is a government warning, so they're likely expecting the effects of this virus to continue for some time yet.

4068ac1elhodqr

VinLieger wrote: »

TBH all that show is that there's still too many unknowns about whats happening, in times of uncertainty things like Gold and now BTC apparently will of course spike but its not a signal of anything significant yet.

Gold of course is the defacto safe haven, but any (day-on-day) 2%+ type drop will compound itself over time if not adjusted.
Many investors have Chinese based investment funds/trusts as part of their portfolios. Airlines, travel and oil producers most at risk.

Duke of Url

Duke of Url wrote: »

So the EU would close its borders to France, US, Australia and so on?

What's wrong with quarantine?

Duke of Url

Deleted User wrote: »

What's wrong with quarantine?

Nothing wrong with quarantine

I’m highlighting that the France, US, Australia all have cases of the Coronavirus. These people were on planes with 100s of others where air is recycled .There is a complete unknown now who has the virus in the EU due to the incubation period of 10 to 14 days.

Who do we quarantine? Just everyone from China who arrives?

Even the top health Chief believes it’s already in the UK

Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle told Sky News she suspects there are already cases of coronavirus in the UK.

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

Nothing wrong with quarantine
I’m highlighting that the France, US, Australia all have cases of the Coronavirus. These people were on planes with 100s of others where air is recycled .There is a complete unknown now who has the virus in the EU due to the incubation period of 10 to 14 days.
Who do we quarantine? Just everyone from China who arrives?
Even the top health Chief believes it’s already in the UK
Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle told Sky News she suspects there are already cases of coronavirus in the UK.

Public Health England have already stated, that any suspected cases should be quarantined.

E.g. If someone walks into their GP that matches the risk criteria and displays symptons, then they should be isolated in a spare room and not allowed to leave.

Likely until a specalist ambulance arrives, for safe transport to a hospital with a containment/isolation facility.

mikhail

harpstilidie wrote: »

Was hoping to visit China on holiday in the summer. Nothing booked yet thankfully.

Be mad to even consider it now would I?

Likely to be over by then. I wouldn't book anything yet, mind.

megatron989

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Public Health England have already stated, that any suspected cases should be quarantined.

E.g. If someone walks into their GP that matches the risk criteria and displays symptons, then they should be isolated in a spare room and not allowed to leave.

Likely until a specalist ambulance arrives, for safe transport to a hospital with a containment/isolation facility.

These plans are all well and good if you have a sporadic handful of cases. What happens if you have thousands? And we aren't talking about thousands of people with upper respatory disease like the common Cold or flu, but thousands of people with lower respatory disease like pneumonia. That's the key difference and the systems in the UK or here in Ireland especially just don't have capacity for that kinda emergency.

whiskeyman

Deleted User wrote: »

No signs of illness. That's good at least.

'He is not ill and as a precaution he has agreed not to attend college and stay in his accommodation by himself for the time being."


Just like most students so...

Winning_Stroke

Maybe having open air live meat markets in a massive urbanisation isn't the best of ideas. Bat soup just isn't worth it.

Call Me Jimmy

Chinese shutting down their economy for a few weeks... let that sink in

ceadaoin.

megatron989 wrote: »

These plans are all well and good if you have a sporadic handful of cases. What happens if you have thousands? And we aren't talking about thousands of people with upper respatory disease like the common Cold or flu, but thousands of people with lower respatory disease like pneumonia. That's the key difference and the systems in the UK or here in Ireland especially just don't have capacity for that kinda emergency.

Except by all accounts, for the majority of people, it is just a cold symptoms wise. I could see how everyone who sneezes freaking out and going to the hospital though could overwhelm the system and also lead to overcrowding in hospitals like we are seeing in china.

Call Me Jimmy

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Chinese shutting down their economy for a few weeks... let that sink in

China has a far greater degree of electronic transfers (wechat/Taobao/etc) than other countries I've been in. I haven't used cash in the last two years of being in China, so the idea of them needing to shut down their economy is unlikely. There's still plenty of options for the economy to continue while being monitored or having safety measures being in place.

Nijmegen

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Except by all accounts, for the majority of people, it is just a cold symptoms wise. I could see how everyone who sneezes freaking out and going to the hospital though could overwhelm the system and also lead to overcrowding in hospitals like we are seeing in china.

At the moment authorities and experts are saying they're not sure (a) the total number, but likely well in excess of 100,000 total; (b) they're not sure how infectious the disease is human-to-human; and (c) how lethal it is compared to a normal influenza season outbreak. All we can say for sure is that it is a fast moving disease in China where cases are likely to and are indeed popping up elsewhere because people travel.

If (b) is "high" then those with weakened immune systems, the elderly and sick and young, are indeed at high risk as they are during any influenza season; just with a version of the virus that does not have any effective treatment as yet.

If (c) is higher than usual, by the time it's confirmed the shelves will be empty so enjoy.

4068ac1elhodqr

megatron989 wrote: »

That's the key difference and the systems in the UK or here in Ireland especially just don't have capacity for that kinda emergency.

Show any significant country on the planet that would be fully prepared for such an event, (there isn't one) indeed some of the leading economies with private healthcare sytems would be the worst.

Someone average lad up in the Yorkshire Dales, or Mayo that hasn't been away from their farm, nor even visted a Chinese takeaway, that has flu simply isn't going to meet the criteria for testing, nor hopsitalisation.

The uk has already tested 73, so far negative. The only risk for the (Island) of Ireland would be a couple of the larger cities, esp around public transport systems.

Britian with a x10 more dense population and about x15 major cities, and very busy airports, would have more to be concerned about.

volchitsa

Concerning the source, has anyone mentioned this yet?
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
Some of China's other bacteriology/virology labs have a very poor security record. The Beijing lab working with SARS has aparently let it escape multiple times.
Maybe the meat market is being unfairly blamed.

Nijmegen

volchitsa wrote: »

Concerning the source, has anyone mentioned this yet?
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
Some of China's other bacteriology/virology labs have a very poor security record. The Beijing lab working with SARS has aparently let it escape multiple times.
Maybe the meat market is being unfairly blamed.

To be honest, if it leaked from a lab then there may be a better understanding of it than some random mutation in a meat market and they could be faster to get an inoculation.

volchitsa

Nijmegen wrote: »

To be honest, if it leaked from a lab then there may be a better understanding of it than some random mutation in a meat market and they could be faster to get an inoculation.

Not if they can't admit to it because of losing face. Big thing in China I gather, and they are very proud of their technological prowess so it would look particularly bad.

Anyway, it's just a suspicion, I know we have no evidence of that. Very odd coincidence all the same.

Nijmegen

volchitsa wrote: »

Not if they can't admit to it because of losing face. Big thing in China I gather, and they are very proud of their technological prowess so it would look particularly bad.

Anyway, it's just a suspicion, I know we have no evidence of that. Very odd coincidence all the same.

Just invent the jab in record quick time and pretend it was because of your technological prowess! Win win.

In any event, the source of the virus is - at this point - moot unless that lab theory leads to a faster handling of the crisis.

Sierra Oscar

Deleted User wrote: »

China has a far greater degree of electronic transfers (wechat/Taobao/etc) than other countries I've been in. I haven't used cash in the last two years of being in China, so the idea of them needing to shut down their economy is unlikely. There's still plenty of options for the economy to continue while being monitored or having safety measures being in place.

I recently purchased a Dell laptop and I have just been advised that shipment of the item from China has been put on hold due to shipping issues in the region. Make of that what you will. The longer this goes on the greater the economic impact globally. The workforce of entire factories have been told not to return to work following the national holidays.

There are already estimates that this could result in a 1.5% decline in China's GDP. The SARS outbreak resulted in a 2.6% decline and the economic impact was felt globally.

GooglePlus

Deleted User wrote: »

No signs of illness. That's good at least.

It can be present for sometime before showing symptoms.

4068ac1elhodqr

Bit of an aul typo or a slight 'mispoke' incident, ah sure.

The World Health Organization said on Monday the global risk from the deadly virus in China was “high,” admitting an error in its previous reports that said it was “moderate.”
The U.N. health body said in a situation report published late Sunday that the risk was

“very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level.”

In a footnote, the WHO said there had been an “error” in previous communications published on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday which “incorrectly” said the global risk was “moderate.”

Duke of Url

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Bit of an aul typo or a slight 'mispoke' incident, ah sure.

The World Health Organization said on Monday the global risk from the deadly virus in China was “high,” admitting an error in its previous reports that said it was “moderate.”
The U.N. health body said in a situation report published late Sunday that the risk was
In a footnote, the WHO said there had been an “error” in previous communications published on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday which “incorrectly” said the global risk was “moderate.”

This might be interesting for you

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1221817985196679169

cloudatlas

iamgroot wrote: »

I'm in a province next to Wuhan city, had to rebook our flights to return early in case the hysteria keeps spreading.

Had a bad cough the last few days though. Hope its just lung cancer and not the deadly coronavirus!

I like those odds! Would ye like to go for a pint when ye get back. No seriously hope it all goes well.

Ipso

What’s the consensus? Too much panic, not enough

bodhrandude

Ipso wrote: »

What’s the consensus? Too much panic, not enough

Don't know really, but following the thread with curiosity.

fritzelly

If this thread starts getting quiet I'm just gonna assume the worst

Oranage2

Ipso wrote: »

What’s the consensus? Too much panic, not enough

Hard to tell, there are more cases reported everyday and the number seems to be doubling, China has extended their national holiday, and shopping centres and businesses are closing early all across China not just Wuhan. Schools don't know when they'll reopen and going out is strongly discouraged. The disease seems highly transmittable and the deathtoll so far seems like a conservative number I guess. For the western world it's probably not that serious, but for Wuhan and other major cities in China it's probably a major concern.

GooglePlus

The virus will land here but we won't get any confirmed cases until about a year or so after, as we'd be too nice to say anything about it. Just an auld dose Mary, few hot whiskeys will sort me out.

wakka12

Ipso wrote: »

What’s the consensus? Too much panic, not enough

Well there have been dozens of cases outside China now and none have been badly affected. It seems to be much less contagious outside China and much less deadly, makes me think it may have thrived in China in poor /unhygienic living conditions and a susceptible population due to the effect that intense pollution has on their lungs. Despite it looking like a fairly mild virus it seems like the reaction from the Chinese authorities was for the best for their situation.

wakka12

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Bit of an aul typo or a slight 'mispoke' incident, ah sure.

The World Health Organization said on Monday the global risk from the deadly virus in China was “high,” admitting an error in its previous reports that said it was “moderate.”
The U.N. health body said in a situation report published late Sunday that the risk was
In a footnote, the WHO said there had been an “error” in previous communications published on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday which “incorrectly” said the global risk was “moderate.”

That is just..absurd!

scamalert

some people play to much pandemic seems, even if doing simple maths say theres 5000 infected in 14mill city thats only like 0.28% if we add mortality rates from infection that goes down to smth like 0.000001, prob better chances to win euro millions then to catch a virus, month or two once temps pickup will be forgotten.

hmmm

Let's hope that the main casualty will be the open office workplace if companies start losing entire floors of people at home for a week or two recovering.

Dante7

scamalert wrote: »

some people play to much pandemic seems, even if doing simple maths say theres 5000 infected in 14mill city thats only like 0.28% if we add mortality rates from infection that goes down to smth like 0.000001, prob better chances to win euro millions then to catch a virus, month or two once temps pickup will be forgotten.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Do you understand reproductive values, incubation periods, airborne virus size, secondary h2h transmissions, pandemic conditions? Unless you do, you are in no position to be commenting on the dangers of this. If you did understand the above, you wouldn't have posted such nonsense.

Call Me Jimmy

scamalert wrote: »

some people play to much pandemic seems, even if doing simple maths say theres 5000 infected in 14mill city thats only like 0.28% if we add mortality rates from infection that goes down to smth like 0.000001, prob better chances to win euro millions then to catch a virus, month or two once temps pickup will be forgotten.

how's your exponents and inverse-communist arithmetic?

So the CCP are hysterical? they're effectively shutting large swathes of the country down and quarantining at least one whole city for a euromillions chance that anyone gets the sniffles?

All indications point to a serious problem for the CCP and chinese people. They are not only the direct effects of the illness but the potential social unrest, logistical problems, potential panic. Everything is fine until it isn't.

Ulysses Gaze

Ipso wrote: »

What’s the consensus? Too much panic, not enough

I think it's time we crack each others heads open and feast on the goo inside.

That's just me though.

Dante7

scamalert wrote: »

some people play to much pandemic seems, even if doing simple maths say theres 5000 infected in 14mill city thats only like 0.28% if we add mortality rates from infection that goes down to smth like 0.000001, prob better chances to win euro millions then to catch a virus, month or two once temps pickup will be forgotten.

Actually, to stick with your euromillions analogy, if the lotto was held every day, and you bought one ticket each day, but each day your chance of winning increased by 2.6, how many days would it take for you to win the jackpot? When you understand the surprising answer to this, you will understand the risk.

wakka12

scamalert wrote: »

some people play to much pandemic seems, even if doing simple maths say theres 5000 infected in 14mill city thats only like 0.28% if we add mortality rates from infection that goes down to smth like 0.000001, prob better chances to win euro millions then to catch a virus, month or two once temps pickup will be forgotten.

Umm..that might be the case if it was certain that there would be no more infections. I dont get your logic at all. Also many illnesses are not affected by the weather. There will be thousands of more infections in China, without a doubt,probably hundreds more deaths, it's predicted to only peak in number by April, but it looks to be contained within China . The 'panic' or hysterics is totally warranted in China imo.

Dante7

Dante7 wrote: »

Actually, to stick with your euromillions analogy, if the lotto was held every day, and you bought one ticket each day, but each day your chance of winning increased by 2.6, how many days would it take for you to win the jackpot? When you understand the surprising answer to this, you will understand the risk.

The answer is 20 days.

marvin80

Some of the comments in here remind me of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ1koU26aeY

fritzelly

Just watching watching World War Z, for some pointers just in case...

Gynoid

I don't know whether or not to be concerned about this virus, not that being worried would have the slightest benefit anyway. At the moment I am not concerned, maybe that is foolish, a couple of weeks will tell. Slightly as a sideline to all talk about a pandemic etc I found this video quite moving. The people in Wuhan gathering at night and shouting encouragement to each other from their effective mass quarantine. Wuhan JiaYou means Wuhan come on! Or Wuhan we can do this...

https://twitter.com/leo_fasu/status/1221866043657740288?s=19

1800_Ladladlad

fritzelly wrote: »

Just watching watching World War Z, for some pointers just in case...

That's the spirit. Watching contagion myself.

creditcarder

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

how's your exponents and inverse-communist arithmetic?

So the CCP are hysterical? they're effectively shutting large swathes of the country down and quarantining at least one whole city for a euromillions chance that anyone gets the sniffles?

All indications point to a serious problem for the CCP and chinese people. They are not only the direct effects of the illness but the potential social unrest, logistical problems, potential panic. Everything is fine until it isn't.

The part in bold is the most important. I feel like the Chinese don't have small unrest, it all just boils over and goes 100 % :P

creditcarder

God, I have turned into such a conspiracy theorist.



https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/1/25/african-swine-fever-pork-dumplings-manila-china.html


I was kind of side-eying the news peice wondering if this was true, or just a strange tit for tat over the fight over the south China sea.

Dante7

creditcarder wrote: »

God, I have turned into such a conspiracy theorist.



https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/1/25/african-swine-fever-pork-dumplings-manila-china.html


I was kind of side-eying the news peice wondering if this was true, or just a strange tit for tat over the fight over the south China sea.

More crap. It came from bats. Here's a Ladybird explanation.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-sars-bats-animals-to-humans-2020-1

fritzelly

Dante7 wrote: »

More crap. It came from bats. Here's a Ladybird explanation.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-sars-bats-animals-to-humans-2020-1

They weren't saying it was the cause, read it as more zero sanitary food conditions/traceability when it comes to China ala this virus

Confirmed case in Perth tonight.

cameramonkey

Deleted User wrote: »

Confirmed case in Perth tonight.

Scotland?