new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Call Me Jimmy

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

We are talking about a de facto Totalitarian state here.

Excuse me, the history of totalitarian governments and the cultures they promote are not relevant. The chinese healthy ministry SAID something, in a STATEMENT. Ergo, where is the evidence... in a complete media blackout (why?), internet firewall (why?) and extreme delay (why?) in allowing experts who will help the situation in.

Even though just weeks ago the whole epidemic started with the bureaucracy entirely suppressing the information, now Xi has publicly decreed that everyone must be truthful. And so it was.

Duke of Url

VinLieger wrote: »

Ahh strawmanning the last gasp of a dying argument

But your the one who said it

VinLieger wrote: »

Its been well theorised the WHO are placating China because if they were to call a spade a spade and say anything bad about their actions they would be locked out completely.

China already threaten to withold funding so as to not allow Taiwan participate in the WHO and they are one of the largest contributors.

So yes while I would not say the WHO are maliciously involved in the under reporting they are simply doing what they have to to keep China working with them.

Ill ask again why do you feel China deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt given literally all their governments history as regarding hiding things from their own people and the rest of the world

Timberrrrrrrr

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

It's worse than that hes dead Jim!


(Ya canny change the laws of physics)



Thanks, now that's stuck in my head for the day

Yes those are the lines initially, but as you hear from 2.55 from below, Dr McCoy says "It's worse than that it's physics Jim!"

Duke of Url

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

And you don't think that for political, economic and cultural reasons (saving face), that China may not be so forthcoming with releasing the real data?

We are talking about a de facto Totalitarian state here.

Again what defines real data in relation to the Coronavirus which is new.. What is the Criteria for the data on the Coronavirus which is new.

Where do I find this Criteria for the data on the Coronavirus which is new.?

BanditLuke

wakka12 wrote: »

9 more cases in Singapore. The highest total in one day since yesterday, which was 8

Getting a march on now. Not good.

One thing has struck me, don’t know if brought up in the thread earlier. If somebody travels to hospital in an ambulance with suspected CoViD-19, what happens next with regard to that ambulance and personnel? Does it go for a clean down? Easier for staff to be sent for cleansing and others take over if there is a spirit of cooperation with all-hands-on-deck during a crisis, but there is overall a more limited number of ambulances on the ground. Others will still get hearts attacks, have accidents and need to get to use the ambulance service. What is our maximum ambulance resource in this scenario, anyone know?

Duke of Url

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing has struck me, don’t know if brought up in the thread earlier. If somebody travels to hospital in an ambulance with suspected CoViD-19, what happens next with regard to that ambulance and personnel? Does it go for a clean down? Easier for staff to be sent for cleansing and others take over if there is a spirit of cooperation with all-hands-on-deck during a crisis, but there is overall a more limited number of ambulances on the ground. Others will still get hearts attacks, have accidents and need to get to use the ambulance service. What is our maximum ambulance resource in this scenario, anyone know?

looks like completely disinfected after each trip.

But it seem a lot of healthcare people have been infected now.

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Says 1,700 Medical Workers Have Been Infected and six of them have died

RebelButtMunch

How come more people haven't been infected though flying? It seems like the opportunity was there

tom1ie

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

How come more people haven't been infected though flying? It seems like the opportunity was there

Maybe they have. Symptoms aren’t showing yet etc. Hopefully not.

Ping Chow Chi

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

How come more people haven't been infected though flying? It seems like the opportunity was there

If this was a Hollywood film 99% of the passengers would have the virus within 2 minutes of the first cough.

tom1ie

Ping Chow Chi wrote: »

If this was a Hollywood film 99% of the passengers would have the virus within 2 minutes of the first cough.

No because Steven seagal or Wesley snipes would’ve stopped this virus in its tracks.

4068ac1elhodqr

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing has struck me, don’t know if brought up in the thread earlier. If somebody travels to hospital in an ambulance with suspected CoViD-19, what happens next with regard to that ambulance and personnel? Does it go for a clean down? Easier for staff to be sent for cleansing and others take over if there is a spirit of cooperation with all-hands-on-deck during a crisis, but there is overall a more limited number of ambulances on the ground. Others will still get hearts attacks, have accidents and need to get to use the ambulance service. What is our maximum ambulance resource in this scenario, anyone know?

Some sort of fumigation? Could be tricky however if not airtight or easy to make it so.

Read somewhere entire wards can be sealed (taped up doors/windows) with some gas unit (ozone?) released inside, left to run for a while to reach every nook and cranny. Then the vast majority of this gas is vacumed back up again (into same unit) to steralise the complete area.

circadian

On a side note the air quality in some of these cities must be amazing compared to what they usually are.

Snow Garden

Ping Chow Chi wrote: »

If this was a Hollywood film 99% of the passengers would have the virus within 2 minutes of the first cough.

Air travel will soon be like this

partyguinness

I think they need Jack Bauer on the case. He'll sort that **** out.

wakka12

2 more cases on an island in Japan
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f3ru5o/man_in_his_50s_diagnosed_with_ncov2019_in/
No recent travel history

creditcarder

Christ, the chinese shills are getting repungant


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/could-coronavirus-make-china-stronger-than-ever-10-trends-%E4%BB%81%E9%A3%9E%E6%89%AC/

s7ryf3925pivug

circadian wrote: »

On a side note the air quality in some of these cities must be amazing compared to what they usually are.

When chlorine bleach combines with organic matter, chloroform is produced. Not sure how big a deal it is otherwise, but children under 6 are more likely to develop asthma if exposed to it too much.

pc7

Dailymail so hate linking, trying to find better source https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8004013/Coronavirus-chaos-Heathrow-EIGHT-planes-lockdown-runway.html

wadacrack

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

How come more people haven't been infected though flying? It seems like the opportunity was there

The epicenter for the outbreak is Wuhan. Lets say about 30,000(dont trust official data) were infected before the leaving that area was possible.

Wuhan Population 11,000 million/30,000 infected. 0.3% Approx infected.

Lets say 5,000 Irish people flew back from Wuhan(No idea about this). 0.3 % are infected its 150 Irish people . Thats with very high estimated numbers. Its possible we get lucky.

Complete guesswork tho

BanditLuke

pc7 wrote: »

Dailymail so hate linking, trying to find better source https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8004013/Coronavirus-chaos-Heathrow-EIGHT-planes-lockdown-runway.html

Wonder if it's only a matter of time now before flights are grounded. An airplane surely would be the worst possible place to be if this goes as expected.

On a side note my daughters boyfriend works in Lidl and he texted her earlier saying it's been crazy busy this morning more than usual with people stocking up on essentials.

creditcarder

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/fears-brit-backpacker-struck-down-21316748


Scary situation imo. Although, they did not mention Coronavirus and I am curious where he got the pneumonia.

Drumpot

If we just look outside of China it seems like the rate of spreading is slow, certainly in terms of confirmed cases. I appreciate there is a lag time of maybe 2 weeks for symptoms to show, but I am surprised there is not a consistently increasing graph outside of China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

If you scroll down to "Total cases outside of China" the graph since Jan 22nd is not particularly concerning , certainly not to an intrained eye like mine.

For the last 2 weeks, the average growth of confirmed cases has been 12% per day but the difference has been between 1% and 23.3% that might be down to how countries are deciding how to manage/report suspected cases. The alternative explanation is that the virus does not spread as easily as the Chinese have suggested (airbourne) and there just are not that many people infected or passing it on outside of China.

The growth outside of China for the first 8 days (excluding day 1) was 65%. Again, perhaps the slowdown in growth has most countries in a complacent state or maybe they have genuine reason to believe its slowly or wont become a pandemic. Again , a little bit of context or narrative on why this might be the case would be welcome.

Seems a bit hard to understand, especially as whatever WHO and for example the USA know about it, they are taking this very seriously.

Perhaps its this really slow growth rate that has people switching out or not really concerned. That's when you need somebody with a bit of knowledge to come out and explain why its slow or least a reasonably credible hypothesis on it.

MD1990

the virus seems to really effect the lungs.

Looking like the air quality in asia is playing major role in the spread.
Probably why it hasn't spread too much in Europe so far.

cnocbui

pc7 wrote: »

Dailymail so hate linking, trying to find better source https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8004013/Coronavirus-chaos-Heathrow-EIGHT-planes-lockdown-runway.html

The Dailymail is the best source for breaking news I know of, If you have some discernment and intelligence. It is dire for the thick and easily lead. People on Boards are very silly about it.

cnocbui

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

How come more people haven't been infected though flying? It seems like the opportunity was there

I was just reading something yesterday about flying and it was said to be same from the point of view of the air in the plane is passed through medical grade filtration. The expert didn't mention the problem that on longer flights, everyone on board is going to use the toilet. Emphasised hand washing, of course.

wadacrack

SeaBreezes wrote: »

[PHP][/PHP]

That doesn't make sense.
How would better air quality stop the viral spread?

2 new cases in Japan. Both are connected to the previously confirmed case of a taxi driver. One had attended a Taxi Union New Year's party with 80 participants, including the infected taxi driver.

a Japanese man in his 50s living in Hokkaido and with no history of traveling abroad. The man had fever and cough on Jan. 31, visited three medical institutions before confirming the infection, and has developed severe symptoms for which he is now being treated in an intensive care unit.
a man in his 60s who initially had a cold on Feb. 3, followed by a fever of 39° C. on Feb. 8, and then pneumonia on Feb. 10. He had traveled to Hawaii from Jan. 28 to Feb. 7.


a person from the Jan. 31, charter flight (third in a series) from Wuhan.
a 30-year-old man working in the local government who had transported patients from the cruise ship.

Less severe symptoms(more severe cases seem to be linked to the increased likelyhood of spreading the virus) , quicker recovery rates which in turn then would lead with the containment

SeaBreezes

[PHP][/PHP]

MD1990 wrote: »

the virus seems to really effect the lungs.

Looking like the air quality in asia is playing major role in the spread.
Probably why it hasn't spread too much in Europe so far.

That doesn't make sense.
How would better air quality stop the viral spread?

2 new cases in Japan. Both are connected to the previously confirmed case of a taxi driver. One had attended a Taxi Union New Year's party with 80 participants, including the infected taxi driver.

a Japanese man in his 50s living in Hokkaido and with no history of traveling abroad. The man had fever and cough on Jan. 31, visited three medical institutions before confirming the infection, and has developed severe symptoms for which he is now being treated in an intensive care unit.
a man in his 60s who initially had a cold on Feb. 3, followed by a fever of 39° C. on Feb. 8, and then pneumonia on Feb. 10. He had traveled to Hawaii from Jan. 28 to Feb. 7.


a person from the Jan. 31, charter flight (third in a series) from Wuhan.
a 30-year-old man working in the local government who had transported patients from the cruise ship.

SeaBreezes

wadacrack wrote: »

Less severe symptoms(more severe cases seem to be linked to the increased likelyhood of spreading the virus) , quicker recovery rates which in turn then would lead with the containment

No, that 'superspreader' in the UK had very mild symptoms and affected 11 in the French chalet?

dwayneshintzy

Deleted User wrote: »

Jaysus.. Hanoi closes schools for another week. Five weeks off now in total. It's a good thing I'm made for early retirement and am perfectly happy sitting around working on this and that.

Hong Kong schools closed till March 16, at least

creditcarder

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That doesn't make sense.
How would better air quality stop the viral spread?

2 new cases in Japan. Both are connected to the previously confirmed case of a taxi driver. One had attended a Taxi Union New Year's party with 80 participants, including the infected taxi driver.

a Japanese man in his 50s living in Hokkaido and with no history of traveling abroad. The man had fever and cough on Jan. 31, visited three medical institutions before confirming the infection, and has developed severe symptoms for which he is now being treated in an intensive care unit.
a man in his 60s who initially had a cold on Feb. 3, followed by a fever of 39° C. on Feb. 8, and then pneumonia on Feb. 10. He had traveled to Hawaii from Jan. 28 to Feb. 7.


a person from the Jan. 31, charter flight (third in a series) from Wuhan.
a 30-year-old man working in the local government who had transported patients from the cruise ship.

If your lungs are stressed, of course a disease that stresses your lungs will affect you worse.



I mean, if you had pneumonia, would you want to in a smoke den?

ZX7R

BanditLuke wrote: »

Wonder if it's only a matter of time now before flights are grounded. An airplane surely would be the worst possible place to be if this goes as expected.

On a side note my daughters boyfriend works in Lidl and he texted her earlier saying it's been crazy busy this morning more than usual with people stocking up on essentials.

Probably more to do with the fact storm Dennis is forecast for the weekend.
Weather warnings in place plenty of event's cancelled for the weekend.

RebelButtMunch

creditcarder wrote: »

If your lungs are stressed, of course a disease that stresses your lungs will affect you worse.



I mean, if you had pneumonia, would you want to in a smoke den?

Your not making sense. How contagious it is isn't related to lung health. What happens to you after you catch it is.

RebelButtMunch

I've been thinking about how much virons you need to be exposed to , to become infected. Does anyone know?
I found one paper that says one molecule is enough. A viron is a virus particle

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090313150254.htm

More here
https://www.quora.com/How-many-individual-virus-are-needed-to-start-an-infection-Will-1-flu-virus-be-enough-to-make-you-sick-or-do-you-need-many-more-than-that

tldr, it depends on the virus type

gozunda

Drumpot wrote: »

If we just look outside of China it seems like the rate of spreading is slow, certainly in terms of confirmed cases. I appreciate there is a lag time of maybe 2 weeks for symptoms to show, but I am surprised there is not a consistently increasing graph outside of China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

If you scroll down to "Total cases outside of China" the graph since Jan 22nd is not particularly concerning , certainly not to an intrained eye like mine.

For the last 2 weeks, the average growth of confirmed cases has been 12% per day but the difference has been between 1% and 23.3% that might be down to how countries are deciding how to manage/report suspected cases. The alternative explanation is that the virus does not spread as easily as the Chinese have suggested (airbourne) and there just are not that many people infected or passing it on outside of China.

The growth outside of China for the first 8 days (excluding day 1) was 65%. Again, perhaps the slowdown in growth has most countries in a complacent state or maybe they have genuine reason to believe its slowly or wont become a pandemic. Again , a little bit of context or narrative on why this might be the case would be welcome.

Seems a bit hard to understand, especially as whatever WHO and for example the USA know about it, they are taking this very seriously.

Perhaps its this really slow growth rate that has people switching out or not really concerned. That's when you need somebody with a bit of knowledge to come out and explain why its slow or least a reasonably credible hypothesis on it.

From reading some of the medical literature about the virus and the spread of the disease in Wuhan and surrounding areas - it would appear that from start of the infection to the beginning of high rates of infection took approx 6 - 8 weeks.

Some modling suggests a critical number of infected people before rates of infection really start to climb.

I dont think we have seen those critical numbers of infected people yet as outside China we are still seeing mostly mainly isolated cases elsewhere (originating from China or with direct links to same) most of which are being directly targeted by health services in those countries.

The only exception to this atm is the cruise ship - which has experienced a rapidly growing number of infected passengers.

Imho It's only a matter of time before there are enough infected but early or asymptomatic undectected cases to start to ramp numbers up in other countries.

igCorcaigh

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Your not making sense. How contagious it is isn't related to lung health. What happens to you after you catch it is.

It is for others if you have the virus and are coughing a lot.

fritzelly

Japan and Singapore are starting to look a bit screwed - more and more cases every day

SeaBreezes

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It is for others if you have the virus and are coughing a lot.

Yeah, it that guy in the UK had mild flu symptoms and was a superspreader..

ZX7R

fritzelly wrote: »

Japan and Singapore are starting to look a bit screwed - more and more cases every day

Nearly all of Japan's reported case's are on the cruise ship.

Snow Garden

fritzelly wrote: »

Japan and Singapore are starting to look a bit screwed - more and more cases every day

It must feel like 15 February 1942 all over again. They should just surrender to the invader.

It's very worrying.

dominatinMC

fritzelly wrote: »

Japan and Singapore are starting to look a bit screwed - more and more cases every day

Do you have a link to the stats? As far as I can tell, Japan has had two isolated cases outside of the ship? So that's hardly alarming.

In preparation for Africa next month this morning I took the Dukoral vaccine against cholera and e-coli and then forgot about it. Was reminded an hour ago that I had taken it by a sudden nausea, gushing in my guts, tummy pain, sneezing, headache. The price one sometimes needs to pay for a vaccine. Better a bit sick now than majorly on the trip. If only I could suffer a bit like this with a Covid-19 vaccine! (Off to puke)

Kermit.de.frog

The US is calling out Chinese misinformation. They think international help needs to be invited in. China thinks it's a superpower though so, I guess, won't be doing that.

fritzelly

dominatinMC wrote: »

Do you have a link to the stats? As far as I can tell, Japan has had two isolated cases outside of the ship? So that's hardly alarming.

34 cases currently not including the ship

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

(4 new cases since that was updated from what I can tell)

RebelButtMunch

dominatinMC wrote: »

Do you have a link to the stats? As far as I can tell, Japan has had two isolated cases outside of the ship? So that's hardly alarming.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

+8 for Japan

Duke of Url

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The US is calling out Chinese misinformation. They think international help needs to be invited in. China thinks it's a superpower though so, I guess, won't be doing that.

WHO arrived on Monday.

A team of World Health Organization (WHO) experts landed in China on Monday. The organization's director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said they will lLay the groundwork for a larger international team," which will join them "as soon as possible."

I believe the US is pissed because the CDC from the US are not invited.

hmmm

Duke of Url wrote: »

WHO arrived on Monday.

The WHO actually has an office in China, they've been there since the start. The delegation on Monday was from the Geneva office.

I'm not surprised the Chinese aren't letting the US in - it's just another example of how the Trump administration has poisoned international co-operation to their own detriment when they need it. The WHO are the world health body, the Chinese won't want every country randomly dropping in people to "observe"?

silverharp

hmmm wrote: »

The WHO actually has an office in China, they've been there since the start. The delegation on Monday was from the Geneva office.

I'm not surprised the Chinese aren't letting the US in - it's just another example of how the Trump administration has poisoned international co-operation to their own detriment when they need it. The WHO are the world health body, the Chinese won't want every country randomly dropping in people to "observe"?

A centralised authoritarian state that went heavy on the initial whistle-blowers will be less than candid with the rest of the world , colour me shocked

Duke of Url

silverharp wrote: »

A centralised authoritarian state that went heavy on the initial whistle-blowers will be less than candid with the rest of the world , colour me shocked

Why do the US want to send the CDC in?

Whats the US reputation on Whistleblowers?

Mr.Wemmick

Duke of Url wrote: »

WHO arrived on Monday.

A team of World Health Organization (WHO) experts landed in China on Monday. The organization's director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said they will lLay the groundwork for a larger international team," which will join them "as soon as possible."

I believe the US is pissed because the CDC from the US are not invited.

Well, going by the banned video that was being passed about FB of Senator Tom Cotton whipping up fear with his barrage of hate against the Chinese, no wonder they don't want them. I'd tell them to sod off too.