new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

bb12

sdanseo wrote: »

We are very small but relatively sparsely populated Island and also a first world country. There aren't many of that combination. Spanish flu barely affected us in comparison to the UK (yes, different world, granted now more globalised but also communication is faster to counter that)

if you research that more you'll see it's estimated 800,000 irish were infected with spanish flu and 23,000 died

bb12

fritzelly wrote: »

Dr John scaremongering
They were monitored as soon as they left the airplane

yeah i've watched his videos and find i've learned a lot from them but there is definitely an element of subtle scaremongering going on in them too...he seemed really annoyed about the difficulty in getting them monetised which set off red flags for me, so i think he's adding a bit of fear just to keep people coming back to watch more...

BanditLuke

BanditLuke wrote: »

If the HSE said today was Friday I'd check the calendar.

That's a major slur against the people working in the HSE. The vast majority are working under extreme pressure. If the Covid-19 was actually to take hold in Ireland. The people working in the HSE would be the frontline.

Whilst I admit that the HSE has problems at a minister of health level. The staff are stellar. They are working their arse off.

Kermit.de.frog

Bring back the nuns

fritzelly

bb12 wrote: »

yeah i've watched his videos and find i've learned a lot from them but there is definitely an element of subtle scaremongering going on in them too...he seemed really annoyed about the difficulty in getting them monetised which set off red flags for me, so i think he's adding a bit of fear just to keep people coming back to watch more...

Don't care about his monetizing - he does say any profits from his books etc are used for his work in less well off countries (dunno if true) - but he is only a nurse, not sure what he really does
For me he is just boring at this stage - spends half the video reiterating what he already said in previous videos and the other repeating what's been in the news (and discussed on this thread already) and speculating - remember he said the 2 prisoners had already been confirmed when they weren't. Few other things he has said that made no sense or were sensationalist

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

That's a major slur against the people working in the HSE. The vast majority are working under extreme pressure. If the Covid-19 was actually to take hold in Ireland. The people working in the HSE would be the frontline.

Whilst I admit that the HSE has problems at a minister of health level. The staff are stellar. They are working their arse off.

Don't think anyone is having a go at the frontline staff, its the bureaucracy they have the problem with

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Don't think anyone is having a go at the frontline staff, its the bureaucracy they have the problem with

From a hospital level. In my honest opinion, we would be able to handle an outbreak in Ireland. We have the resources and skill. The issue would be from the scaremongering stopping HSE staff going to work. This would make it significantly worse.

But rest assured, I'd turn up and get on with the job. To be fair, that's easy for me to say as I don't have children etc.

bodhrandude

A North Sea oilman is currently being tested in Shetland, Scotland on the Tern Alpha oil rig, it turns out he'd been to Thailand on his holidays and developed symptoms when he returned to the rig. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-51503277

Deputy Director of Public Health Dr Emilia Crighton said: "The risk of catching this illness in the UK is extremely low and only those returning from at risk areas, or people in contact with someone diagnosed with the illness are at risk."

There is another health authority like HSE with that same daft message 'risk of catching it in the UK is extremely low.' I mean did they not see the headlines about the super spreader in the UK, hello?

Merlin44

Deleted User wrote: »

From a hospital level. In my honest opinion, we would be able to handle an outbreak in Ireland. We have the resources and skill. The issue would be from the scaremongering stopping HSE staff going to work. This would make it significantly worse.

But rest assured, I'd turn up and get on with the job. To be fair, that's easy for me to say as I don't have children etc.

Well said ... the demographics should work.in.our favour we are not on top of each other.people will stick the quaratine out and i would imagine it will be areas rather than.the whole place in lockdown.such is our vastness compated to.wuhan
I am frontline too and i fully expect people to.prepare individually for the sake of our children.

Kermit.de.frog

Japanese media reporting on a new case

From Mainichi news

In Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture, a man in his 60s who recently returned from a trip to Hawaii has tested positive for the coronavirus, the city government said. He has not visited China recently.

In cases reported Thursday in the western prefecture of Wakayama, a route of contraction is not known, either.

bodhrandude

Merlin44 wrote: »

Well said ... the demographics should work.in.our favour we are not on top of each other.people will stick the quaratine out and i would imagine it will be areas rather than.the whole place in lockdown.such is our vastness compated to.wuhan
I am frontline too and i fully expect people to.prepare individually for the sake of our children.

Do you know Riclad by any chance.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1228429372526415879

fritzelly

Need to manually select subtitles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrQ0wrTT1Mw

gozunda

For anyone needing to fly anywhere in the near future - a couple of interesting articles on the risk of global spread with regard to flights and major airports in

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/14/21134473/coronavirus-outbreak-singapore-us-symptoms-pandemic

Also
Novel Coronavirus Global Risk Assessment

The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel. Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was a major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined and the Wuhan airport closed on January 23, 2020. By then, the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries.

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/

Route Analysis & Effective Distance
Most probable routes and effective distance

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/analysis/visual_analytics/

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1228444050686083072

wakka12

I wonder when countries will begin flight bans to Japan and Singapore, it seems China level epidemics are inevitable in these countries now

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

I wonder when countries will begin flight bans to Japan and Singapore, it seems China level epidemics are inevitable in these countries now

And you are talking nonsense.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

From a hospital level. In my honest opinion, we would be able to handle an outbreak in Ireland. We have the resources and skill. The issue would be from the scaremongering stopping HSE staff going to work. This would make it significantly worse.

But rest assured, I'd turn up and get on with the job. To be fair, that's easy for me to say as I don't have children etc.

I dont believe anyone questions the dedication and hard work of all medical related staff.

The issue is one primarily of existing hospitals which are currently working with a shortage of resources - with many hospitals experiencing overflowing A&E departments and a shortage of beds and wards and people to staff same.

This from the article I linked above

.. even a less severe pandemic has the potential to overwhelm a country’s health infrastructure. There are studies out of China suggesting as many as a quarter of patients need care in the ICU, for example — something that could wreak havoc on health systems and cost billions. “There’s always chance [this disease could] overwhelm health systems in a number of countries, even in countries with good health systems,” 

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/14/21134473/coronavirus-outbreak-singapore-us-symptoms-pandemic

To make sure this doesn't happen - the top brass in the HSE and the Department of Health really need to pull their finger out asap ...

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

And you are talking nonsense.

Really? CDC has said that epidemic is imminent in USA, and there are hardly any cases there even. Singapore and Japan are both experiencing numerous new cases all across their countries among people with no known links to infected people, how do you contain that once it's started? You dont even know where to begin, how can you, once there are unknown links between infected people, its impossible to trace backwards and contain it. Guarantee you many countries will ban flights to Japan and Singpoare within the next week

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

I wonder when countries will begin flight bans to Japan and Singapore, it seems China level epidemics are inevitable in these countries now

No they aren't. No other country will have a Wuhan sort of explosion because of this virus.

Drumpot

gozunda wrote: »

I dont believe anyone questions the dedication and hard work of all medical related staff.

The issue is one primarily of existing hospitals which are currently working a shirtsge of resources - with many hospitals experiencing overflowing A&E departments and a shortage of beds and wards and people to staff same.

This from the article I linked above



https://www.vox.com/2020/2/14/21134473/coronavirus-outbreak-singapore-us-symptoms-pandemic

To make sure this doesn't happen - the top brass in the HSE and the Department of Health really need to pull their finger out asap ...

Did you watch that Channel 4 piece linked a page back? In short the NHS are doing nothing to inform the public or educate or even answer any questions. The chap who is the head of the Public health England basically answered every question asked with “that wouid be an ecumenical matter”.

Parents are being advised in some schools that they can leave their kids at home if they like. When they try to phone the authorities to get more information, there is none... That’s what leads to panic...

We usually follow on their coattails so I wouldn’t be overly confident that we will get much different. I really hope they pull some rabbit out of the hat on this and prove me wrong but so far they have taken a very inactive approach to communication with the public. One of the paramedics on the C4 documentary said exactly what I was saying earlier. Treat people like adults , educate them and prepare them properly.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

No they aren't. No other country will have a Wuhan sort of explosion because of this virus.

Actually, it is more likely than unlikely.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/new-coronavirus-has-likely-already-spread-globally-a-f0c171b4-ed60-46ac-ae5b-5473cb49e806

saabsaab

A few years ago when there was a threat of foot and mouth in the UK there was an immediate effort to disinfect all public places, public meetings cancelled and a stop on animal movements. This is a serious threat to human health here but there isn't the same reaction -yet. Why?

fritzelly

saabsaab wrote: »

A few years ago when there was a threat of foot and mouth in the UK there was an immediate effort to disinfect all public places, public meetings cancelled and a stop on animal movements. This is a serious threat to human health here but there isn't the same reaction -yet. Why?

No cases here yet, a few in the UK - can hardly tell a cow to self isolate
Time will tell if this is gonna blow up or blow over

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

I dont believe anyone questions the dedication and hard work of all medical related staff.

The issue is one primarily of existing hospitals which are currently working with a shortage of resources - with many hospitals experiencing overflowing A&E departments and a shortage of beds and wards and people to staff same.

This from the article I linked above



https://www.vox.com/2020/2/14/21134473/coronavirus-outbreak-singapore-us-symptoms-pandemic

To make sure this doesn't happen - the top brass in the HSE and the Department of Health really need to pull their finger out asap ...

But if we put resources towards that, it means we take resources from other areas. The rationale been that by overinvesting in coronavirus. We would take away from areas such as elderly care which on probability would cause more deaths due to resources been diverted.

italodisco

Opinions on this, I'm planning on heading to Cyprus or gran canara in May with my 4 year old.

Am I mad?

My gut is telling to hold off til September at least to see how the virus had progressed. Am I being overly paranoid

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Really? CDC has said that epidemic is imminent in USA, and there are hardly any cases there even. Singapore and Japan are both experiencing numerous new cases all across their countries among people with no known links to infected people, how do you contain that once it's started? You dont even know where to begin, how can you. Guarantee you many countries will ban flights to Japan and Singpoare within the next week

Link to where the CDC is saying that an epidemic of coronavirus is due in the states? Sounds like an exaggeration.

italodisco

italodisco wrote: »

Opinions on this, I'm planning on heading to Cyprus or gran canara in May with my 4 year old.

Am I mad?

My gut is telling to hold off til September at least to see how the virus had progressed. Am I being overly paranoid

Go on your holiday.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

Link to where the CDC is saying that an epidemic of coronavirus is due in the states? Sounds like an exaggeration.

'"We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

-CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html

'“We can and should be prepared for this new virus to gain a foothold in the U.S.,” Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC, told reporters at a Wednesday press briefing. “The goal of the measures we have taken to date are to slow the introduction and impact of this disease in the United States, but at some point we are likely to see community spread in the U.S.”

' “So far we’re seeing very limited impact here in the United States, but that could change at any time.”
=U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar

https://time.com/5783771/covid-19-us-cases/

Fr_Dougal

A friend of mine has had his company cancel an EMEA conference in Barcelona, not willing to take the chance. Regional office is in London, all non-essential travel has been cancelled; essential travel needs approval. Company would be fairly cash rich too, not a question of budget. Specifically said due to Coronavirus.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

'"We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

-CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html

No word of "epidemic" in that. You're scaremongering.

Drumpot

italodisco wrote: »

Opinions on this, I'm planning on heading to Cyprus or gran canara in May with my 4 year old.

Am I mad?

My gut is telling to hold off til September at least to see how the virus had progressed. Am I being overly paranoid

I’ve a flight booked for Washington in awhile and will be in France over the summer. Im taking a wait and see approach right now. I’m going to leave it as long as I can to pay off my holiday in full.

My plan is just to amend my flights to Washington if it comes to it. Aer Lingus were not completely clear on how much it will cost but I’m not overly concerned. If I can’t fly to the USA because there is a pandemic , losing money on flights won’t be that important.

saabsaab

Deleted User wrote: »

But if we put resources towards that, it means we take resources from other areas. The rationale been that by overinvesting in coronavirus. We would take away from areas such as elderly care which on probability would cause more deaths due to resources been diverted.

I don't believe it's either or remember if coronavirus gets a hold here it will be the elderly the most affected.

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

I don't believe it's either or remember if coronavirus gets a hold here it will be the elderly the most affected.

Yes. Bit more than likely. That is not going to happen. This is like wjen we went mad on iodine tablets.

saabsaab

fritzelly wrote: »

No cases here yet, a few in the UK - can hardly tell a cow to self isolate
Time will tell if this is gonna blow up or blow over

We don't have much time best to act now. Anyway hard to get some people to self isolate.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

No word of "epidemic" in that. You're scaremongering.

No I'm not,
epidemic
'a widespread occurrence of an infectious disease in a community at a particular time.'
CDC expect sustained community transmission in the US. I think youre on the other end , in denial of a serious situation

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But if we put resources towards that, it means we take resources from other areas. The rationale been that by overinvesting in coronavirus. We would take away from areas such as elderly care which on probability would cause more deaths due to resources been diverted.

No suggestion to take resources from other areas. The point is that with the current situation in the Irish health system - there is little or no wriggle room or sufficient resources to deal with any surge in those who may need hospitalisation or intensive medical care due to the coronvirus.

I was responding to this

The_Dazzler wrote:

...In my honest opinion, we would be able to handle an outbreak in Ireland. We have the resources and skill.

We certainly do not have the resources

So if or when multiple cases of coronvirus here what happens? That is the question. The HSE and the Departments of Health seem to be sitting on their hands

givyjoe

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No they aren't. No other country will have a Wuhan sort of explosion because of this virus.

What on earth are you basing that on? Is this virus just going to suddenly stop being extremely contagious?

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

No suggestion to take resources from other areas. The point is that with the current situation in the Irish health system - there is little or no wriggle room or sufficient resources to deal with any surge in those who may need hospitalisation or intensive medical care due to the coronvirus.

I was responding to this



We certainly do not have the resources

So if or when multiple cases of coronvirus here what happens? That is the question. The HSE and the Departments of Health seem to be sitting on their hands

Yes. But the risk of corona virus is low. The risk of stroke/cancer is high. They aren't sitting on their hands. They are been pragmatic. Remember SARS?

josip

Just flew from Dublin via Frankfurt tonight.
Nobody wearing masks in Dublin or on that flight.
I saw 5 people in Frankfurt wearing a mask on my walk between 2 terminals.
The area around the departure gate was quite busy but we found a pocket of empty seats.
There were 3 Chinese guys sitting in the middle , everyone else was giving them a wide berth.
On of the Lufthansa pilots sneezed at passport control and said "Corona virus"; cue laughter from the rest of the crew.

I expect things to have escalated slightly on our return journey in 10 days time.

We are going to see traffic jams if people are too scared of being crammed face against face in the LUAS etc. I can see outbreaks particularly along both Luas lines as the teams are exceedingly crowded.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes. But the risk of corona virus is low. The risk of stroke/cancer is high. They aren't sitting on their hands. They are been pragmatic. Remember SARS?

I was responding to this ...

The_Dazzler wrote:

..In my honest opinion, we would be able to handle an outbreak in Ireland. We have the resources and skill.

Still going for that?

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes. But the risk of corona virus is low. The risk of stroke/cancer is high. They aren't sitting on their hands. They are been pragmatic. Remember SARS?

The HSE consider the risk from coronavirus to the Irish public as 'moderate', not low.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes. But the risk of corona virus is low. The risk of stroke/cancer is high. They aren't sitting on their hands. They are been pragmatic. Remember SARS?

This...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/china-coronavirus-sars.html

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

The HSE consider the risk from coronavirus to the Irish public as 'moderate', not low.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus.html

God. This is embarrassing.
There has been no confirmed case of coronavirus in Ireland.

The risk of getting coronavirus in Ireland is low.

If there is a case here, health professionals will try to contact anyone who has been in contact with the infected person.

If you are not contacted, you are extremely unlikely to catch coronavirus.

You do not need to follow any advice in relation to coronavirus if you have:

not been to mainland China
not been in contact with a person who has coronavirus
not been to a healthcare facility where patients with coronavirus were treated
recently returned from Hong Kong or Macau and have not travelled through mainland China
When you may need a test
You will only need to be tested for coronavirus if you have symptoms and have in the last 14 days been:

in close contact with a confirmed case of coronavirus
to mainland China - this does not include Hong Kong or Macau
in a healthcare centre or hospital where patients with coronavirus were being treated
If your doctor thinks that you need a test for coronavirus, they will tell you where the test will be done. They will also tell you when to expect your results.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

This...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/china-coronavirus-sars.html

In China.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus.html

God. This is embarrassing.
There has been no confirmed case of coronavirus in Ireland.

The risk of getting coronavirus in Ireland is low.

If there is a case here, health professionals will try to contact anyone who has been in contact with the infected person.

If you are not contacted, you are extremely unlikely to catch coronavirus.

You do not need to follow any advice in relation to coronavirus if you have:

not been to mainland China
not been in contact with a person who has coronavirus
not been to a healthcare facility where patients with coronavirus were treated
recently returned from Hong Kong or Macau and have not travelled through mainland China
When you may need a test
You will only need to be tested for coronavirus if you have symptoms and have in the last 14 days been:

in close contact with a confirmed case of coronavirus
to mainland China - this does not include Hong Kong or Macau
in a healthcare centre or hospital where patients with coronavirus were being treated
If your doctor thinks that you need a test for coronavirus, they will tell you where the test will be done. They will also tell you when to expect your results.

https://theliberal.ie/hse-chief-says-that-theres-a-moderate-risk-of-a-coronavirus-outbreak-in-ireland/
How could it possibly be less likely since this announcement? With hundreds more cases worldwide and tens of thousands more in China, and dozens in European neighbouring countries

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

https://theliberal.ie/hse-chief-says-that-theres-a-moderate-risk-of-a-coronavirus-outbreak-in-ireland/
How could it be less likely since then?

Well, your first problem there is that you are getting your news from the liberal.ie :pac:

More seriously, the actual HSE risk is low. So you are lying. Good for you.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, your first problem there is that you are getting your news from the liberal.ie :pac:

More seriously, the actual HSE risk is low. So you are lying. Good for you.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/risk-of-coronavirus-in-ireland-remains-moderate-says-hse-1.4156713
Theres an irish times article for you, among the dozens of others which covered the announcement from 30th of January. So, how could it possibly be less likely there will be an outbreak in Ireland since that date, when the number of cases worldwide has only grown by tens of thousands since them

Yes their current risk has reverted to low, at some point over the last fortnight. But it makes no sense, considering what they said prior and no reduction in the risk.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/risk-of-coronavirus-in-ireland-remains-moderate-says-hse-1.4156713
Theres an irish times article for you, among the dozens of others which covered the announcement. So, how could it possibly be less likely there will be an outbreak in Ireland since that date, when the number of cases worldwide has only grown by tens of thousands since them

Because the evidence released since then suggests that the risk was overstated. Look. The only reason I'm actually messaging in this thread is because somebody needs to counteract the scaremongering. I am probably more qualified than the majority of people on this thread regarding infectious diseases. You are believing the hype whereas you need to look at the underlying statistics.

It's not my fault that you are going on information from two weeks ago.