new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Dante7

Remdisvar seems to be the weapon of choice at the moment. Reports that Chinese labs are making it and bypassing international patent laws. Can't blame them.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/remdesivir-prevents-mers-coronavirus-disease-monkeys

Call Me Jimmy

Deleted User wrote: »

No word of "epidemic" in that. You're scaremongering.

A couple weeks the modelling from two different sources put the numbers on Jan 25th between 40 - 90 thousand (when the official figures were about 5k I think). Given the growth since then, the difference in starting point is significant.

And this harvard professor says it's likely to be global pandemic:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/harvard-professor-sounds-alarm-on-likely-coronavirus-pandemic-40-to-70-of-world-could-be-infected-this-year/

If you want to question the source: on twitter he confirmed the quote.

That is on top of what wakka said. "The CDC said they are trying to contain but it will likely fail, when it does they move to mitigation. ""At some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. or in other countries,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “This will trigger a change in our response strategy.”

Is this information scaremongering?

Edit: All just to say, I don't think it's the end of the world. But that it's very plausible that it will spread significantly which will be at minimum very disruptive.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228419572749012993

Call Me Jimmy

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

A couple weeks the modelling from two different sources put the numbers on Jan 25th between 40 - 90 thousand (when the official figures were about 5k I think). Given the growth since then, the difference in starting point is significant.

And this harvard professor says it's likely to be global pandemic:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/harvard-professor-sounds-alarm-on-likely-coronavirus-pandemic-40-to-70-of-world-could-be-infected-this-year/

If you want to question the source: on twitter he confirmed the quote.

That is on top of what wakka said. "The CDC said they are trying to contain but it will likely fail, when it does they move to mitigation. ""At some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. or in other countries,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “This will trigger a change in our response strategy.”

Is this information scaremongering?

I don't agree with the Harvard professor. If the Covid-19 has infected 70% of the world by 31/12/20. I'd resign from my job. That's how confident I am at the moment. Albeit, if it got that far, I'd reckon I'd be conscripted.

With regards to Walla's quote. I would imagine that if you look at the quotes from a medical side. All the CDC is suggesting at the moment is that there will be community spread in the US or THE REST OF THE WORLD. Big net there.

wakka12

And what is supposed to be going on in this video? I find these completely meaningless videos with no context that people keep posting so bizaree

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

And what is supposed to be going on in this video? I find these completely meaningless videos with no context that people keep posting so bizaree

No face masks apparently. Arrested.

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't agree with the Harvard professor. If the Covid-19 has infected 70% of the world by 31/12/20. I'd resign from my job. That's how confident I am at the moment. Albeit, if it got that far, I'd reckon I'd be conscripted.

With regards to Walla's quote. I would imagine that if you look at the quotes from a medical side. All the CDC is suggesting at the moment is that there will be community spread in the US or THE REST OF THE WORLD. Big net there.

You don’t believe the Harvard professor? Great, can you explain why or is it just a hunch ?

Can you give some evidence or information to back up your stance on this? What makes Ireland so unique ? We have planes and boats coming in all the time, why exactly is the virus unlikely to arrive here? Is it because Sinn Féin might be in power and it’s waiting to see if they can form a coalition?

If it does come here what makes you so confident we have the resources to handle it if it takes off ? Since we don’t fully know how it spreads or all the specifics of the illness, What makes you think we can contain it?

Why exactly is there no meaningful communication going on between the HSE and the general public? Why can’t they provide some guidelines and pro actively treat the public like adults ? If they are so confident that it’s not coming here then why are they issuing packs to all GPs? If it’s because they are preparing for the worst then what benefit is it to not have any engagement with the public? This is one thing I really can’t comprehend. It’s a presumption that to talk with the public is to court panic. If you can’t talk with the public in advance of a potential outbreak, how exactly do you think that same talk will go in the middle of one?

People are not scaremongering, they are asking serious questions and nobody appears to have any answers. If you have more answers and are more informed then the people posting here, then inform people, don’t just put them down and ignore the evidence that you don’t want to address. This isn’t 67,000 UFO sightings , this is an actual virus spreading around the world and we don’t know for sure how it’s going to play out. Nobody can say anything with confidence so right now we should be planning for the worst and hoping for the best. One of the most basic parts of planning is communication and the HSE gets a massive F so far.

bodhrandude

Scanned electron microscope image of the SARS CoV-2 in yellow among the human pink cells.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-images.html

bodhrandude

Taiwan News has a scary report about people who were infected, recovered and infected again some resulting in cardiac arrest. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

Goldengirl

VinLieger wrote: »

Jesus do i have to explain this again i suppose for maybe the 10th time.

China do not record deaths correctly, this is an indisputable fact. Heres an example, say you contracted coronavirus here and then got pneumonia and die of maybe organ failure. All 3 of those illnesses would be listed on your death cert and added to the statistics.

In China they record 1 of these, and its usually the direct cause of death, so in this case it would be organ failure and not any of the underlying causes that led to it like corona virus so we have no way to know how many have died due to it.

The best example of this is china with a population of 1.3 billion officially recorded less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths last year, the US with a population of 350 million had 61000.

Also according to news reports yesterday , they have admitted that they weren't recording deaths at home from Coronavirus , because they didn't test them.

Two activists/ reporters who were blogging about the situation have disappeared and their social media accounts have been wiped .

I don't think any of this is reassuring and I believe the WHO are being either naive or gullible believing the Chinese authorities.

GooglePlus

Drumpot wrote: »

You don’t believe the Harvard professor? Great, can you explain why or is it just a hunch ?

Can you give some evidence or information to back up your stance on this? What makes Ireland so unique ? We have planes and boats coming in all the time, why exactly is the virus unlikely to arrive here? Is it because Sinn Féin might be in power and it’s waiting to see if they can form a coalition?

If it does come here what makes you so confident we have the resources to handle it if it takes off ? Since we don’t fully know how it spreads or all the specifics of the illness, What makes you think we can contain it?

Why exactly is there no meaningful communication going on between the HSE and the general public? Why can’t they provide some guidelines and pro actively treat the public like adults ? If they are so confident that it’s not coming here then why are they issuing packs to all GPs? If it’s because they are preparing for the worst then what benefit is it to not have any engagement with the public? This is one thing I really can’t comprehend. It’s a presumption that to talk with the public is to court panic. If you can’t talk with the public in advance of a potential outbreak, how exactly do you think that same talk will go in the middle of one?

People are not scaremongering, they are asking serious questions and nobody appears to have any answers. If you have more answers and are more informed then the people posting here, then inform people, don’t just put them down and ignore the evidence that you don’t want to address. This isn’t 67,000 UFO sightings , this is an actual virus spreading around the world and we don’t know for sure how it’s going to play out. Nobody can say anything with confidence so right now we should be planning for the worst and hoping for the best. One of the most basic parts of planning is communication and the HSE gets a massive F so far.

“I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.”

From the Wall Street Journal and not that ****ty source originally provided covered in ads and riddled with marketing cookies.

BloodBath

bodhrandude wrote: »

Taiwan News has a scary report about people who were infected, recovered and infected again some resulting in cardiac arrest. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

A site linking multiple conspiracy theory's that have already been debunked such as this one have a new story from an "anonymous source" to create more clickbait scaremongering headlines.

If anything this outbreak might teach people a thing or 2 about how a lot of the media operates. #fakenews

bb12

all the scaremongering will hugely benefit big pharma when vaccines are rushed to market. everyone will sign up for them without too much thought and a lot of money will be made

khalessi

Deleted User wrote: »

I am probably more qualified than the majority of people on this thread regarding infectious diseases.

In what way?

bodhrandude

bodhrandude wrote: »

Taiwan News has a scary report about people who were infected, recovered and infected again some resulting in cardiac arrest. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

Reinfection is a real danger with this for people who survive but incurred lung or possible organ damage. Try surviving a second or third bout

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/johns-hopkins-dr-amesh-adalja-says-new-coronavirus-is-here-to-stay.html

Johns Hopkins senior scholar Dr. Amesh Adalja said the new coronavirus will likely cause yearly outbreaks, with most of the cases being mild.
“Many people are going to get mild illness and it’s going to be more like a flu-like illness for many people but for some it may be very severe,” he said.

Kermit.de.frog

From the RTE website so not racist



Medical officers leave for Wuhan yesterday. China strong!

s7ryf3925pivug

Goldengirl wrote: »

Also according to news reports yesterday , they have admitted that they weren't recording deaths at home from Coronavirus , because they didn't test them.

Two activists/ reporters who were blogging about the situation have disappeared and their social media accounts have been wiped .

I don't think any of this is reassuring and I believe the WHO are being either naive or gullible believing the Chinese authorities.

Being seem to believe the Chinese authorities is a requirement for being allowed to operate in China I reckon.

pc7

Hopefully this continues on in this pattern for smallies https://twitter.com/helenbranswell/status/1228451904440750080?s=21

el Fenomeno

A far more worrying endemic is the use of the word "smallies" for children. That's twice I've seen it this week.

I would prefer we go down the Chinese route of forced isolation and burning of bodies for people inflicted with this.

Can't be too careful.

gozunda

Rest of world - business as usual. China says no to restrictions ....

In an interview with Reuters in Berlin, State Councillor Wang Yi, who also serves as China's foreign minister, urged the United States not to take unnecessary virus-response measures that could hamper trade, travel and tourism...

"We've taken such complete prevention and control efforts, efforts that are so comprehensive, that I can't see any other country that can do this," Wang said, adding that any leader in another country would find the challenge very difficult.

"But China has been able to do this."

Meanwhile in China ....

Anyone returning to China's capital (Beijing) will be required to isolate themselves for 14 days, states an announcement made by Chinese authorities on Friday.

The new rules also require those returning to the city to give advance warning of their arrival to the relevant authorities in their residential area.

According to the instructions, anyone who does not comply “shall be held accountable according to law.”

New China is best China ...

Gynoid

fritzelly wrote: »

Need to manually select subtitles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrQ0wrTT1Mw

Very moving interview. Thanks for posting

ThePopehimself

el Fenomeno wrote: »

A far more worrying endemic is the use of the word "smallies" for children. That's twice I've seen it this week.

It's a very affectionate word for me. I was reared on the word 'smallies'.

My entire family on my mum's side have never used anything else. As slightly older children, we would be asked to mind the smallies; it meant everything from baby to 7 or 8 years.

Then, when they were small, I called mine smallies and now, soon hopefully, they will call theirs smallies. I have always loved the word, for me it says 'needs minding'. I have never used the word kid, I would use child or children though for whatever reason.

But Smallies are smallies. I love that word.:)

SeaBreezes

Gynoid wrote: »

Very moving interview. Thanks for posting

When she asked him what he was looking forward to and he had to fight back the years before answering. Ah god. What a wonderful man.
Yes, thank you for sharing.

khalessi

khalessi wrote: »

In what way?

I have worked in infectious diseases.

el Fenomeno

ThePopehimself wrote: »

It's a very affectionate word for me. I was reared on the word 'smallies'.

My entire family on my mum's side have never used anything else. As slightly older children, we would be asked to mind the smallies; it meant everything from baby to 7 or 8 years.

Then, when they were small, I called mine smallies and now, soon hopefully, they will call theirs smallies. I have always loved the word, for me it says 'needs minding'. I have never used the word kid, I would use child or children though for whatever reason.

But Smallies are smallies. I love that word.:)

Is it a Dublin thing? I genuinely never heard of it until I moved here. I assumed it was an imported American term of endearment.

laurah591

67 more cases found on the boat with the Americans now opting to send a flight to bring its passengers home


https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228590900131004418


And 8 more linked to Taxi driver

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228606540178956288

This doesn't bode well for the Olympics

SeaBreezes

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Is it a Dublin thing? I genuinely never heard of it until I moved here. I assumed it was an imported American term of endearment.

Nope. Use it in cork too, usually referring to toddlers small kids that need minding. Very affectionate term here.

ThePopehimself

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Is it a Dublin thing? I genuinely never heard of it until I moved here. I assumed it was an imported American term of endearment.

No, not at all. My family would have been South, South-West and Mid-West.

Certainly in use in my family for 80 years and so quite probably before too. I can't say I ever heard it outside the family, but am glad to.

A most endearing word. It reminds me of Christmas, family gatherings of all sorts. Growing up, an adult could ask any of us to mind any child smaller, 'mind the smallies' and we would, simply because they were smaller than us and for some reason, it made perfect sense. There was always a child smaller than you and the word, always spoken kindly and gently by the adults, charged us with a sense of care.

Particularly useful at times when age for a child was blurred!So much was instantly resolved by the adult saying, ‘Yes, but he is a smallie and so doesn’t understand yet’.

As I said earlier, I used it in turn when rearing my children. They are adults now. I do miss when they were smallies.

cnocbui

laurah591 wrote: »

67 more cases found on the boat with the Americans now opting to send a flight to bring its passengers home

Thank goodness someone has seen some sense. Australia should do likewise, but I wouldn't expect such - or any - action from that blob of self-satisfied excrement they have for a prime minister at the moment. They wouldn't even mind a month in the sun marooned on Christmas Island.

Tipperary animal lover

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Is it a Dublin thing? I genuinely never heard of it until I moved here. I assumed it was an imported American term of endearment.

Never used in tipperary but when I was living in cork city you'd here it all the time, makes me smile when I here it now it's very endearing .

ThePopehimself

I'm curious, would anybody here have an updated figure on the numbers tested here for CoVid-19? I would also be curious to know if those tested are centered in a particular area?

laurah591

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I'm curious, would anybody here have an updated figure on the numbers tested here for CoVid-19? I would also be curious to know if those tested are centered in a particular area?

All i saw was 65 tested as of last Monday ... 6 days old

Limited Irish Media coverage here, in my opinion there looks to be efforts taking to keep suspect cases quiet

ThePopehimself

laurah591 wrote: »

All i saw was 65 tested as of last Monday ... 6 days old

Limited Irish Media coverage here, in my opinion there looks to be efforts taking to keep suspect cases quiet

Yes. I agree.

Kermit.de.frog

We could well be watching the collapse of a country that thought it was a super power. It sure looks like it.

It's only taken 3 months to bring China to it's knees.

A really incredible story.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We could well be watching the collapse of a country that thought it was a super power. It sure looks like it.

It's only taken 3 months to bring China to it's knees.

A really incredible story.

How do you get 3 months?

Lashes28

cnocbui wrote: »

Thank goodness someone has seen some sense. Australia should do likewise, but I wouldn't expect such - or any - action from that blob of self-satisfied excrement they have for a prime minister at the moment. They wouldn't even mind a month in the sun marooned on Christmas Island.

Isn't there two Irish on the boat??

wakka12

laurah591 wrote: »

All i saw was 65 tested as of last Monday ... 6 days old

Limited Irish Media coverage here, in my opinion there looks to be efforts taking to keep suspect cases quiet

Should they publicise info about suspects ?

josip

bb12 wrote: »

all the scaremongering will hugely benefit big pharma when vaccines are rushed to market. everyone will sign up for them without too much thought and a lot of money will be made

Au contraire, not a lot of money to be made in vaccines it would seem

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51454859

tom1ie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How do you get 3 months?

Dec, jan, feb no? Didn’t the first case rear it’s head at the start of dec 2019?

pc7

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Is it a Dublin thing? I genuinely never heard of it until I moved here. I assumed it was an imported American term of endearment.

Maybe? We’ve always used it, my grandparents always used it when we were small (40 years ago), usually my grandad saying ‘someone control the smallies’ either way hopefully this virus fecks off

ThePopehimself

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We could well be watching the collapse of a country that thought it was a super power. It sure looks like it.

It's only taken 3 months to bring China to it's knees.

A really incredible story.

Even less than that - 2 months.

zell12

First known death in Europe from coronavirus
An 80-year-old Chinese tourist in France dies from coronavirus.
https://www.lci.fr/sante/en-direct-covid-2019-coronavirus-deces-d-un-patient-en-france-premier-mort-hors-d-asie-2143314.html

zell12

China is cleaning and quarantining used banknotes with the stated objective of limiting the spread of the coronavirus, the central bank announced on Saturday
The Egyptian Ministry of Health announces the discovery of a case of coronavirus in the country, making it the first on the African continent,

gmisk

First death in Europe, guardian reporting below

Chinese tourist in France becomes Europe's first coronavirus fatality

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/15/chinese-tourist-in-france-becomes-europes-first-coronavirus-fatality?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

khalessi

Deleted User wrote: »

I have worked in infectious diseases.

in what capacity

npresto

Stats, maps, numbers etc..

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

Dec, jan, feb no? Didn’t the first case rear it’s head at the start of dec 2019?

It wasn't until early/mid January that the incidents were suspected (the rumor mill/leaks began) and then it was confirmed as being something more than a seasonal flu bug. It was barely mentioned in China, never mind other countries until the middle of January.

Mic 1972

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases have a Death rate of 15%
Open cases have a Critical/Serious rate of 19%

Can't believe reports are still throwing around the 2% death rate bull****

SeaBreezes

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases have a Death rate of 15%
Open cases have a Critical/Serious rate of 19%

Can't believe reports are still throwing around the 2% death rate bull****

That number (fatal percentage) was steady at 20% for the month of Jan.
It's been decreasing by 1% per day for the last 5 days... so maybe hopeful sign?

khalessi

khalessi wrote: »

in what capacity

Specialist pharmacist. NHS.