new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Zenify

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases have a Death rate of 15%
Open cases have a Critical/Serious rate of 19%

Can't believe reports are still throwing around the 2% death rate bull****

But we really have any idea about critical rate as some people dont even know they are infected. I saw a girl being interviewed who recovered from it after getting it on that cruise ship. She had no symptoms, hopefully that will take up the critical/death rate as they are not being represented on the figures currently. HOPEFULLY

SusanC10

Have been kind of following news of this Coronavirus here on this thread and in the news.
Starting to get a bit concerned now. Have 2 Kids and a Husband who travels (mostly within Europe) a fair bit for work. All of us healthy with no health conditions. I could be a bit fitter but the rest are fit and sporty.
Husband thinks I am a bit mad to be even a little concerned and talks about SARS, MERS and the Swine Flu and the minimal impact here in Ireland.

I keep Hand Sanitizer beside the front door and in the car. Gave the Kids and Husband mini-Bottles going to work and school - though am sceptical of how much use is made of them once out of my sight.

We have enough Food and Toiletries to last about a month if housebound at any point - this has more to do with previous weather related issues than anything else. Would need more bottled water.

Husband due to go to Germany week after next with more trips including France after that.

What makes this one different from SARS or MERS or Swine Flu ?

wakka12

It's not really comparable to SARS or MERS. They were a lot more dangerous. It looks to be more dangerous than swine flu and regular flu though.

pc7

SusanC10 wrote: »

What makes this one different from SARS or MERS or Swine Flu ?

I ‘think’ the way it spreads seems to be difference. You can have it be contagious and no symptoms, also the way it’s i the air and not just cough/sneeze droplets. Again I think that’s my understand from the thread (could be completely wrong).

el Fenomeno

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Have people here bought masks?

I bought 5 for me and 5 for my girlfriend who lives in Shanghai and they are sold out there.

Like condoms, I'd rather have them and not need them, then need them and not have them.

Quantum Erasure

Deleted User wrote: »

have them and not need them, then need them and not have them.

hate when that happens

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I bought 5 for me and 5 for my girlfriend who lives in Shanghai and they are sold out there.

Like condoms, I'd rather have them and not need them, then need them and not have them.

Exactly. Also there's a general boost in quality with buying things here. Quality control is often very lacking in China. I've done the same. Buying quality masks and sent them to my girlfriend (and ex gf) for themselves and the families.

BanditLuke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases have a Death rate of 15%
Open cases have a Critical/Serious rate of 19%

Can't believe reports are still throwing around the 2% death rate bull****

They have to stop people from worrying and keep them consuming as long as possible.

MarkY91

As a previous poster said, I also haven't really looked into the virus or really took it seriously.

I'm heading to Singapore, Thailand and Philippines in April. I am slightly concerned about my flights not happening. Not that concerned about actually being there. 1 case in Singapore in a city of millions...

dublin99

MarkY91 wrote: »

As a previous poster said, I also haven't really looked into the virus or really took it seriously.

I'm heading to Singapore, Thailand and Philippines in April. I am slightly concerned about my flights not happening. Not that concerned about actually being there. 1 case in Singapore in a city of millions...

Actually there have been 67 cases in Singapore to date, including a cluster associated with a local Church.

Chong

Got masks in Screwfix direct probably won’t need them but have some now.

odyssey06

MarkY91 wrote: »

As a previous poster said, I also haven't really looked into the virus or really took it seriously.
I'm heading to Singapore, Thailand and Philippines in April. I am slightly concerned about my flights not happening. Not that concerned about actually being there. 1 case in Singapore in a city of millions...

Three concerns:
* There'll be thousands, if not tens of thousands, more cases there between now and then
* Transitting through airports you're going to be coming into close contact with a lot of people, you will be using communal eating and toilet facilities
* Not sure what standard of care you could expect in Thailand or Philippines if you did get a base dose

MarkY91

dublin99 wrote: »

Actually there have been 67 cases in Singapore to date, including a cluster associated with a local Church.

Really? I'm sure it was reported the other day that there was 1 case and the office for evacuated? Maybe I'm not as up to date as I should be. I'll be following this thread closely.

ZX7R

dublin99 wrote: »

Actually there have been 67 cases in Singapore to date, including a cluster associated with a local Church.

Official stats from the who say otherwise
3 confined case's .
No new case's todate

dublin99

ZX7R wrote: »

Official stats from the who say otherwise
3 confined case's .
No new case's todate

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-9-new-cases-confirmed-in-singapore-6-of-these-linked-to-grace-assembly

67 according to the Singapore ministry of health (Feb 14)
What is significant is that many are local cases in the community ie not linked directly to cases associated with people who had travelled from China.

fritzelly

ZX7R wrote: »

Official stats from the who say otherwise
3 confined case's .
No new case's todate

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

ThePopehimself

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Have people here bought masks?

Yes.

ZX7R

fritzelly wrote: »

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Apologies
Read the chat wrong

fiona_b

They ran out of masks where I live :eek::(

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Anywhere you can buy masks and gloves in munster?

MarkY91

Friend in Philippines said people don't wear masks because they ran out or can't afford them. Scumbags are buying them in bulk and making huge profits. A box of masks used to be 60 pesos. They're now being sold for 500+ now

MarkY91

MarkY91 wrote: »

Friend in Philippines said people don't wear masks because they ran out or can't afford them. Scumbags are buying them in bulk and making huge profits. A box of masks used to be 60 pesos. They're now being sold for 500+ now

Better than Vietnam where there were masks being sold made from toilet roll.

Chong

Chong wrote: »

Got masks in Screwfix direct probably won’t need them but have some now.

There’s 10% off at minute. Not all masks available for delivery though.

MarkY91

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Better than Vietnam where there were masks being sold made from toilet roll.

That's insane!

I think I will post a few over to the Philippines. Where could I pick some up in Dublin city centre today? Has anyone gotten some?

Charli Substantial Racketeering

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

Anywhere you can buy masks and gloves in munster?

https://www.screwfix.ie/jsp/tradeCounter/tradeCounterPage.jsp

05eaftqbrs9jlh

MarkY91 wrote: »

Friend in Philippines said people don't wear masks because they ran out or can't afford them. Scumbags are buying them in bulk and making huge profits. A box of masks used to be 60 pesos. They're now being sold for 500+ now

It's been said here and loads of other places that they're not great for containment. Aside from psychologically, you will let your guard down more easily if you think they're protecting you. They get clogged with dirt and particles and become disgusting and unusable. You'll stop a cough or sneeze with the crook of your elbow more hygienically and then don't touch it or people and wash your clothes on a hot wash straight away when you're home. It sounds looney but it's the only practice that will really keep you protected.

A load of people laughed at me a few days ago when I wouldn't shake their hands, saying "because of the coronavirus, I'd say we should get out of the habit of doing that for a while". I pretended I was joking along with them at the time, to not wreck the buzz, but it made me conscious of the fact that people really aren't taking it seriously. A trainee doctor even went to shake my head when I went in the other day. Fck that.

Crucial hand hygiene practices and staying back from people, if you have to go in public during an outbreak, are the only way you'll even be in with a chance of avoiding it. Everyone should have the option to stay at home today anyway, the weather is crap and everyone is dying :rolleyes:.

Timberrrrrrrr

fiona_b wrote: »

They ran out of masks where I live :eek::(

Got one of these nearby?

https://www.toolstation.com/workwear-safety/face-masks-respirators/c44

dublin99

MarkY91 wrote: »

That's insane!

I think I will post a few over to the Philippines. Where could I pick some up in Dublin city centre today? Has anyone gotten some?

Surgical masks are out of stock everywhere. The Chinese have bought them all and sent them to China! Amazon prices are up 5 to 6 times and quality is questionable. Some medical/dental suppliers are limiting orders for Doctors/Dentals.

You might get some respirator masks. Prices are very high though for disposable masks. Some people use respirators with replaceable filters.

Masks are better at stopping the person infected spreading the infection rather than stopping people from getting the infection.

MarkY91

dublin99 wrote: »

Surgical masks are out of stock everywhere. The Chinese have bought them all and sent them to China! Amazon prices are up 5 to 6 times and quality is questionable. Some medical/dental suppliers are limiting orders for Doctors/Dentals.

You might get some respirator masks. Prices are very high though for disposable masks. Some people use respirators with replaceable filters.

The girlfriend is a nurse. I might ask her to steal some from work.

LeBash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Exactly. Also there's a general boost in quality with buying things here. Quality control is often very lacking in China. I've done the same. Buying quality masks and sent them to my girlfriend (and ex gf) for themselves and the families.

How did you ship them? I'm in the same boat and couldnt get An Post to take them, tried DHL, UPS and FedEx and none would take any parcel to China.

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

Masks are better at stopping the person infected spreading the infection rather than stopping people from getting the infection.

That’s exactly why I’ve bought some. If one of my children or us adults get a bug or need to be careful we can wear them. I always get rhespiratory stuff and have had a cough for weeks now. I’m told it’s an allergy but if things kick off here I won’t necessarily know the difference as I believe most people will get mild symptoms.

cnocbui

MarkY91 wrote: »

The girlfriend is a nurse. I might ask her to steal some from work.

Don't.

tom1ie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It wasn't until early/mid January that the incidents were suspected (the rumor mill/leaks began) and then it was confirmed as being something more than a seasonal flu bug. It was barely mentioned in China, never mind other countries until the middle of January.

Well by dec 31 wuhan doctors were treating “dozens” of pneumonia cases of unknown origin, a couple of days later it was identified as corona virus.
So corona has been around since early dec 2019 if you take into account a couple of weeks of the “pneumonia cases” (that were actually corona virus) getting bad enough to require hospitalisation.

wakka12

Japanese couple test positive after holidaying in Hawaii
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f48rl4/new_japanese_woman_diagnosed_with_coronavirus/

4 more cases in Tokyo. Including one infected person who recently attended a party of 100 guests
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f48nlk/4_new_cases_in_tokyo_include_taxi_drivers_who/

17 people being tested for coronavirus in Delhi after returning from China with symptoms of the illness
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f490vt/17_people_from_delhi_who_returned_from_abroad/

5 more cases in Singapore, 72 total now.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-cases-feb-15-12437852?cid=FBcna

cnocbui

The Dailymail has an article on how to DIY a surgical mask: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8006937/How-make-coronavirus-mask-Hong-Kong-officials-release-DIY-video.html

Right. I’m off shopping to stock up on tins. I’ll be leaving the spam on the shelf though.

Graces7

SusanC10 wrote: »

Have been kind of following news of this Coronavirus here on this thread and in the news.
Starting to get a bit concerned now. Have 2 Kids and a Husband who travels (mostly within Europe) a fair bit for work. All of us healthy with no health conditions. I could be a bit fitter but the rest are fit and sporty.
Husband thinks I am a bit mad to be even a little concerned and talks about SARS, MERS and the Swine Flu and the minimal impact here in Ireland.

I keep Hand Sanitizer beside the front door and in the car. Gave the Kids and Husband mini-Bottles going to work and school - though am sceptical of how much use is made of them once out of my sight.

We have enough Food and Toiletries to last about a month if housebound at any point - this has more to do with previous weather related issues than anything else. Would need more bottled water.

*********************************************************

You are doing fine. Don't forget stocks of meds, both prescription and OTC.

I am in an unusual situation. Already all but housebound and in a solitary and remote place away from physical human contact as my immune system is down and any slight infection and at my age could prove fatal. And as we get cut off ( islander) I keep stocks of food etc in.
With folk out there it will be the need to stay away from folk in any number eg shops.

LeBash

LeBash wrote: »

How did you ship them? I'm in the same boat and couldnt get An Post to take them, tried DHL, UPS and FedEx and none would take any parcel to China.

I went through Vietnam. Two different courier firms. One to Vietnam (to a friend of mine living there), and then another one from the border to Xi'an. Both local firms so they'd know best how to get around any red tape/obstacles. The girlfriend received them roughly 10 days after leaving Ireland. Some concerns at the border check, since they were held up for just over two days, but they were sent on, in the end.

Snow Garden

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30070-9/fulltext

As of Feb 10, 37 558 cases were confirmed, and 812 deaths had been reported to the WHO. Outside of China, 307 cases had been detected in 24 countries.6 Therefore, although several hundreds of patients remain in intensive care, the overall hospital fatality rate remains at 2%. Therefore, it is time to reduce the hype and hysteria surrounding the 2019-nCoV epidemic and reduce sensationalisation of new information, especially on social media, where many outlets aim to grab attention from followers. Additionally, the disparity between the strength of language as presented to the media by some researchers and politicians and the inference shared on social media requires more research to determine how content is being relayed on different platforms.

An effective way of putting this outbreak into perspective is to compare it with other respiratory tract infections with epidemic potential. 2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses. There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.

wakka12

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

wadacrack

wakka12 wrote: »

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

Its destroying their economy and is a new virus. Its too early for any scientific facts on the disease. Especially with China's inaccurate data on it. No doubt some of the patterns seem very serious.

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics#4
During the severe 2017-2018 flu seasonTrusted Source, one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu.

91% cured. 9% died. "The death rate for influenza is clearly 9%."

Mic 1972

wakka12 wrote: »

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

Extreme measures are in place because the death rate is way higher than 2%, the data is out there, you just need a calculator


2% death rate means that out of 100 people, 2 people died and 98 people recovered
At the moment however out of 100 people we have 2 deaths, 13 recovered and 85 still sick

SeaBreezes

wakka12 wrote: »

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

This it's just the flu drives me nuts.
Watch their actions not their words.
You do not quarantine millions of people, risk crashing the worlds economy for the flu..

Ubbquittious

SeaBreezes wrote: »

This it's just the flu drives me nuts.
Watch their actions not their words.
You do not quarantine millions of people, risk crashing the worlds economy for the flu..

Ah Fuck the economy. Staying alive more important

dublin99

Lots of countries have imposed outright ban or quarantine requirements for visitors from China or anyone who was in China 14 days before arrival.
Some cruise ship companies have banned anyone with Chinese passports on cruises.
Although there are no direct flights from China to Ireland, there have been a large influx of Chinese students and those who took advantage of the investment visa policy. Many Chinese are fleeing the country because of the coronavirus. One Hubei official who was supposed to be leading the fight against coronavirus was found to have escaped to Thailand with his family!
Many of the Chinese visitors transit through London, Paris or Amsterdam. The Irish Government, even if not screening people with fever at the airport, should at least make Chinese passport holders fill in some declaration form with verifiable contact details and be able to track them down if necessary.

BanditLuke

Yeah China is shutting down whole cities and introducing draconian measures for "only the flu".

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics#4
During the severe 2017-2018 flu seasonTrusted Source, one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu.

91% cured. 9% died. "The death rate for influenza is clearly 9%."

Have you ever seen a city of 11 million shutdown for the flu?
AND WHO praising them for their actions, not calling them fear-mongers or conspiracy idiots?
Why is that do you think? If it's 'just the flu' ...
it doesn't make sense

hmmm

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yeah China is shutting down whole cities and introducing draconian measures for "only the flu".

The Chinese system was at risk because of the initial panic. The CCP would lose legitimacy at home & abroad if they were seen to allow this get out of control. Ironically it appears that the thousands of people with minor illnesses rushing the hospitals in the early days actually caused the virus to spread widely.

What I'm seeing is a wild swing in behaviour caused by a very slow leadership process which takes time to filter down from above. The order went out a few weeks ago to stop this virus, and by the time this filtered down we were seeing local party officials impose draconian measures. Now Xi Jinping is asking for people to go back to work, and this is also taking time to filter down. It's like trying to turn a supertanker, and shows the weakness in the Chinese model of everything going through Xi.

I don't think we will see the same sort of measures used outside China, they are in many ways a function of the system. What could cause problems is unnecessary panic, with people pulling kids out of school and hiding indoors etc.