new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Have you ever seen a city of 11 million shutdown for the flu?
AND WHO praising them for their actions, not calling them fear-mongers or conspiracy idiots?
Why is that do you think? If it's 'just the flu' ...
it doesn't make sense

I understand it's serious. But it isn't killing 15% of the people who get it.

dublin99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Extreme measures are in place because the death rate is way higher than 2%, the data is out there, you just need a calculator


2% death rate means that out of 100 people, 2 people died and 98 people recovered
At the moment however out of 100 people we have 2 deaths, 13 recovered and 85 still sick

The death rate in China is much higher. People are not tested and therefore not diagnosed (officially) and many people die at home as they are not admitted to hospital. These deaths are not included in the official figures.

In many cases whole families are infected. In Hong Kong in a high rise block, it was spread through the sewage pipes from a man who lived in flat on a high floor to a woman ten floors below. She then infected her son and daughter in law. The daughter in law had a family dinner in a restaurant in a different part of town and infected her father and other relatives!

The problem is it can spread before any symptoms are noticed as incubation is up to 14 days. In fact on the Diamond Princess,of the latest group of 67 (out of 287 cases) 38 cases had no symptoms at all so they can be "invisible" carriers of the virus!

wakka12

hmmm wrote: »

The Chinese system was at risk because of the initial panic. The CCP would lose legitimacy at home & abroad if they were seen to allow this get out of control. Ironically it appears that the thousands of people with minor illnesses rushing the hospitals in the early days actually caused the virus to spread widely.

What I'm seeing is a wild swing in behaviour caused by a very slow leadership process which takes time to filter down from above. The order went out a few weeks ago to stop this virus, and by the time this filtered down we were seeing local party officials impose draconian measures. Now Xi Jinping is asking for people to go back to work, and this is also taking time to filter down. It's like trying to turn a supertanker, and shows the weakness in the Chinese model of everything going through Xi.

I don't think we will see the same sort of measures used outside China, they are in many ways a function of the system. What could cause problems is unnecessary panic, with people pulling kids out of school and hiding indoors etc.

And yet we have seen same measures in countries outside China with only a few dozen cases, ban on public gathering, indefinite school closures, flight bans, closed borders , a town in Vietnam quarantined, cruise liners with no confirmed cases stranded at sea for days, suspected patients being rushed to hospitals by a team in hazmat suits, governments tracing and observing and isolating tens of thousands of people, and more

igCorcaigh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I understand it's serious. But it isn't killing 15% of the people who get it.

I think some people are confusing case fatality rate (CFR) with mortality rate.

CFR is measured against diagnosed cases.only.

It is an estimate of the rue mortality rate, but will always be greater, because not all people with the illness will be diagnosed.

ZX7R

dublin99 wrote: »

The death rate in China is much higher. People are not tested and therefore not diagnosed (officially) and many people die at home as they are not admitted to hospital. These deaths are not included in the official figures.

In many cases whole families are infected. In Hong Kong in a high rise block, it was spread through the sewage pipes from a man who lived in flat on a high floor to a woman ten floors below. She then infected her son and daughter in law. The daughter in law had a family dinner in a restaurant in a different part of town and infected her father and other relatives!

The problem is it can spread before any symptoms are noticed as incubation is up to 14 days. In fact on the Diamond Princess,of the latest group of 67 (out of 287 cases) 38 cases had no symptoms at all so they can be "invisible" carriers of the virus!

The poo theory is still not 100% ,they are basing it on findings based on sars
But fascinating to read the papers about it

Snow Garden

Snow Garden wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30070-9/fulltext

As of Feb 10, 37 558 cases were confirmed, and 812 deaths had been reported to the WHO. Outside of China, 307 cases had been detected in 24 countries.6 Therefore, although several hundreds of patients remain in intensive care, the overall hospital fatality rate remains at 2%. Therefore, it is time to reduce the hype and hysteria surrounding the 2019-nCoV epidemic and reduce sensationalisation of new information, especially on social media, where many outlets aim to grab attention from followers. Additionally, the disparity between the strength of language as presented to the media by some researchers and politicians and the inference shared on social media requires more research to determine how content is being relayed on different platforms.

An effective way of putting this outbreak into perspective is to compare it with other respiratory tract infections with epidemic potential. 2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses. There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.

Read the line again.

2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses.

The Lancet is not saying it is only the flu.

Charli Substantial Racketeering

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

It's been said here and loads of other places that they're not great for containment. Aside from psychologically, you will let your guard down more easily if you think they're protecting you. They get clogged with dirt and particles and become disgusting and unusable. You'll stop a cough or sneeze with the crook of your elbow more hygienically and then don't touch it or people and wash your clothes on a hot wash straight away when you're home. It sounds looney but it's the only practice that will really keep you protected.

A load of people laughed at me a few days ago when I wouldn't shake their hands, saying "because of the coronavirus, I'd say we should get out of the habit of doing that for a while". I pretended I was joking along with them at the time, to not wreck the buzz, but it made me conscious of the fact that people really aren't taking it seriously. A trainee doctor even went to shake my head when I went in the other day. Fck that.

Crucial hand hygiene practices and staying back from people, if you have to go in public during an outbreak, are the only way you'll even be in with a chance of avoiding it. Everyone should have the option to stay at home today anyway, the weather is crap and everyone is dying :rolleyes:.

Speaking of doctors and hygiene, I observed some startling stuff in a private hospital a couple of years ago when I was in waiting area for operating theatres about to undergo surgery. I observed one anaesthetist, who had a very heavy cold, wiping his snotty nose with his bare hands, wiping the snot off on his theatre scrubs, then approach a patient to discuss the imminent anaesthesia. My own anaesthetist arrived with a heavily dribbling nose himself, looking wreaked, with a disposable cup of coffee. At least I didn’t see him wiping his nose on his scrubs

laurah591

that's nasty plain and simple

wakka12

Snow Garden wrote: »

Read the line again.

2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses.

The Lancet is not saying it is only the flu.

But then'There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.'??

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I think some people are confusing case fatality rate (CFR) with mortality rate.

CFR is measured against diagnosed cases.only.

It is an estimate of the rue mortality rate, but will always be greater, because not all people with the illness will be diagnosed.

Howeevr this in itself implies that if you start getting symptomatic you have entered the draw, the domain of Cases and are eligible for that potential prize of your demise

Have to find the humour in the horror!

hmmm

wakka12 wrote: »

And yet we have seen same measures in countries outside China with only a few dozen cases, ban on public gathering, indefinite school closures, flight bans, closed borders , a town in Vietnam quarantined, cruise liners with no confirmed cases stranded at sea for days, suspected patients being rushed to hospitals by a team in hazmat suits, governments tracing and observing and isolating tens of thousands of people, and more

Contact tracing and social distancing is normal to slow spread - read anything put out by the WHO for dealing with epidemics.

We did it a couple of years ago for Swine Flu in Ireland.

Poorer countries will find it easier to simply quarantine large areas, it won't work in an advanced economy in the West. For a start, the economic impact will be too large for anything similar, plus our health systems are more capable. The key thing will be to slow the spread, so as to avoid a large demand on hospitals, and I'd expect to see things like large sports events cancelled for a few weeks if this becomes widespread.

wakka12

hmmm wrote: »

Contact tracing and social distancing is normal to slow spread - read anything put out by the WHO for dealing with epidemics.

We did it a couple of years ago for Swine Flu in Ireland.

Poorer countries will find it easier to simply quarantine large areas, it won't work in an advanced economy in the West. For a start, the economic impact will be too large for anything similar, plus our health systems are more capable. The key thing will be to slow the spread, so as to avoid a large demand on hospitals, and I'd expect to see things like large sports events cancelled for a few weeks if this becomes widespread.

China is not a poor country, at all, nor Singapore where many of the measures mentioned have occurred.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics#4
During the severe 2017-2018 flu seasonTrusted Source, one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu.

91% cured. 9% died. "The death rate for influenza is clearly 9%."

One thing we must always take into account is that we have some control over our own immunity from Influenza. Eg I have been getting the annual vaccine for 25 years, and on two occasions since that have I got a very brief (36 hours) influenza like illness in circumstances where there was a concurrent high prevalence. There is no such option to protect against any type of Coronavirus, yet, so I would consider that I am at much greater risk of becoming seriously ill with Covid-19.

Mic 1972

wakka12 wrote: »

But then'There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.'??

The data is out there, if you want to know your chances of survival in case you get infected the best thing to do it taking a calculator and work out the rate. You have total deaths, Total infected, total survivals. It ultimately boils down to how you want to look at data

gozunda

Just to slightly change the current mood on the thread. Just have to post this

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1228279669180555264?s=20

wakka12

8 out of 9 UK patients discharged

YFlyer

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

It's been said here and loads of other places that they're not great for containment. Aside from psychologically, you will let your guard down more easily if you think they're protecting you. They get clogged with dirt and particles and become disgusting and unusable. You'll stop a cough or sneeze with the crook of your elbow more hygienically and then don't touch it or people and wash your clothes on a hot wash straight away when you're home. It sounds looney but it's the only practice that will really keep you protected.

People are using them to protect themselves from others.

sdanseo

Deleted User wrote: »

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

Exactly. As I've been saying for days, and I haven't been wrong yet - the deaths to recoveries ratio continues to climb.

It was equal, then 2:1, 4:1 and now more than 6:1.

With the event of mutation left out - and that could still happen making the virus much milder or much worse - I think in a year, when we do large-scale epidemiological studies on this which estimate the real virulence, it'll be 1000:1.

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yeah China is shutting down whole cities and introducing draconian measures for "only the flu".

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Have you ever seen a city of 11 million shutdown for the flu?

Humans panic. There was excessive hype over Swine Flu, and similar over SARS (which to be fair was no joke). China was shunned and criticised by the world for its lack over transparency over SARS. There was never any chance they would react anything other than with an iron fist to another iteration.

bodhrandude

What happens if you try to punch the virus out of your body?

SusanC10

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/15/world/asia/15reuters-china-health-malaysia.html

Ms2011

bodhrandude wrote: »

What happens if you try to punch the virus out of your body?

I believe darwin's theory of natural selection comes into play there.

ceadaoin.

dublin99 wrote: »

The death rate in China is much higher. People are not tested and therefore not diagnosed (officially) and many people die at home as they are not admitted to hospital. These deaths are not included in the official figures.

And also, mild cases which remain undiagnosed are not included in the figures. According to the WHO 82% of infected have only mild symptoms. Therefore there are way more of these cases than unrecorded deaths which will bring the death rate way down. Could be wrong but I'd say the death rate will turn out of be even lower than the current estimate of 2%.

In many cases whole families are infected. In Hong Kong in a high rise block, it was spread through the sewage pipes from a man who lived in flat on a high floor to a woman ten floors below. She then infected her son and daughter in law. The daughter in law had a family dinner in a restaurant in a different part of town and infected her father and other relatives!

That was SARS, not this.

tara73

just bought hand sanitizer and gloves at my nearest drugstore.:o (in Germany) just to be safe than sorry and also wanted to find out if things are sold out here (big city). they're not, no shortage of hand sanitizers..don't know about masks though, but think will be the same don't even know where to get them, pharmacie maybe. would be interesting to find out, next project for monday maybe..:P

just as a general info as I think folks here might be interested:subject is very low key in the media in Germany too, no headlines at all, just some small reporting like five minutes in the news or some informative stuff about the corona virus later at night. no panic inducing stuff at all. think that's what europe or the world in general agreed upon, making no big headlines in cases like this (if not gotten already to a very bad situation) to reduce any risk of panic spreading amongst people.

tried to find out anything about the infected cases here, can't find much, not even online. think I read somewhere they are all on the road to recovery but not 100% sure.

so it's mainly the same acting from the media than in Ireland, to keep it low key which is, I think at this point, the right thing to do. I can imagine this is a slippery slope for the responsible authorithies/media, keeping the balance between keeping people adaquately informed to the current situation but not spreading panic with it. I think that's why they don't report about the infected people here, it's not much to report anyway if they have only mild symptoms. If they would be in a bad state, they would inform about it.

laurah591

SusanC10 wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/15/world/asia/15reuters-china-health-malaysia.html

Article is behind a paywall but an American was infected on the 2nd Cruise ship, have all those passengers been sent back to country's of origin or are they in quarantine in Cambodia?

Snow Garden

Snow Garden wrote: »

Read the line again.

2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses.

The Lancet is not saying it is only the flu.

I don't think you understand what you quoted, mate.

dublin99

ceadaoin. wrote: »

That was SARS, not this.

No, it happened last week. Hundreds of people were evacuated from the apartment block Monday night.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049968/coronavirus-four-more-residents-tsing-yi-estate

Snow Garden

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The data is out there, if you want to know your chances of survival in case you get infected the best thing to do it taking a calculator and work out the rate. You have total deaths, Total infected, total survivals. It ultimately boils down to how you want to look at data

Wrong. You will never know the total infected. You will only know the total of the people that were confirmed to have the virus using medical testing.

SusanC10

laurah591 wrote: »

Article is behind a paywall but an American was infected on the 2nd Cruise ship, have all those passengers been sent back to country's of origin or are they in quarantine in Cambodia?

I had previously read that all Passengers had been tested on disembarking in Cambodia and tested negative and were released. This American person tested positive in Malaysia after flying there from Cambodia with more than 100 other passengers from the Ship.

igCorcaigh

Snow Garden wrote: »

Wrong. You will never know the total infected. You will only know the total of the people that were confirmed to have the virus using medical testing.

Yup, CFR is a (in this case, highly) inflated estimate of the true mortality rate.

ardinn

Doc John

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U088JzCJCAg&feature=push-sd&attr_tag=G6bClHVYpKv4LoEJ%3A6

laurah591

SusanC10 wrote: »

I had previously read that all Passengers had been tested on disembarking in Cambodia and tested negative and were released. This American person tested positive in Malaysia after flying there from Cambodia with more than 100 other passengers from the Ship.

So possible first test was a false negative and we might see some more cases emerge.

The majority of people seeming to be recovering quite well from the infection. It seems to me that in a normal person, this strain is flu is less severe than the seasonal.flu.

CinemaGuy45

laurah591 wrote: »

All i saw was 65 tested as of last Monday ... 6 days old

Limited Irish Media coverage here, in my opinion there looks to be efforts taking to keep suspect cases quiet

I am fully convinced we have cases here already however we don't have a media all we have are shills and paid lapdogs.

CinemaGuy45

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Ah Fuck the economy. Staying alive more important

Jesus :rolleyes:

The economy produces our food and taking part in the economy enables us to buy that food.

Not just food we have
Healthcare
Transport
Energy
Security

The tooth fairy does not restock the supermarkets you know.

Tipperary animal lover

After watching the videos on twitter of some chinese going round splitting and smearing the buttons on elevators, coughing on food products, spitting on door handles i went into tescos today and bought a few packets of antibacterial wipes for my up coming trip to asia ... sick to my stomach what people would/can do to other humans.

Stheno

Tipperary animal lover wrote: »

After watching the videos on twitter of some chinese going round splitting and smearing the buttons on elevators, coughing on food products, spitting on door handles i went into tescos today and bought a few packets of antibacterial wipes for my up coming trip to asia ... sick to my stomach what people would/can do to other humans.

Why would you travel to Asia at this time?

CinemaGuy45

wakka12 wrote: »

And yet we have seen same measures in countries outside China with only a few dozen cases, ban on public gathering, indefinite school closures, flight bans, closed borders , a town in Vietnam quarantined, cruise liners with no confirmed cases stranded at sea for days, suspected patients being rushed to hospitals by a team in hazmat suits, governments tracing and observing and isolating tens of thousands of people, and more

Aaa sure it will be all grand.

Until it is not.:(

Tipperary animal lover

Stheno wrote: »

Why would you travel to Asia at this time?

Atm were still going but thinks can change, have just under four weeks to decide, forfeit the flights if we have to.

tara73

Tipperary animal lover wrote: »

After watching the videos on twitter of some chinese going round splitting and smearing the buttons on elevators, coughing on food products, spitting on door handles i went into tescos today and bought a few packets of antibacterial wipes for my up coming trip to asia ... sick to my stomach what people would/can do to other humans.

yes, be careful. have a friend living in Beijing (also at the moment, poor pet), and they apparently spit constantly everywhere. Once someone spit on her leg accidentally, sitting in a bus..blergh

CinemaGuy45

wakka12 wrote: »

8 out of 9 UK patients discharged

And 9 out of ten cats prefer Whiskers.:D

sweetie

tara73 wrote: »

yes, be careful. have a friend living in Beijing (also at the moment, poor pet), and they apparently spit constantly everywhere. Once someone spit on her leg accidentally, sitting in a bus..blergh

Plenty of spitting scumbags in Ireland too. See lots of it around Dublin.

givyjoe

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The majority of people seeming to be recovering quite well from the infection. It seems to me that in a normal person, this strain is flu is less severe than the seasonal.flu.

Hang on, earlier you claimed to be a pharmacist. Influenza and coronavirus are not the same thing.

Also, what do you consider to be a majority? The vast majority of cases have not yet recovered.

CinemaGuy45

sweetie wrote: »

Plenty of spitting scumbags in Ireland too. See lots of it around Dublin.

Oriental people have on average the highest IQs in the world they produce and have invented some great stuff Playstation Samsung Gunpowder.

The Irish have the lowest average IQ in Western Europe for anybody interested.

Being racist is trying to infer another race is inferior but we can all see what the Oriental peoples have achieved I don't see any racism.

Pointing our what some scumbags are doing there is not racist and I would assume the videos were captured and uploaded by people who are outraged and I would guess these people are of the same race.

So we see a few dirty scumbags in China and you respond oh we have scumbags here too.
Why do you need to point that out?

When some scummy junkie mugs somebody in Dublin do you feel the need to point out they have dirty junkies in India also?

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The majority of people seeming to be recovering quite well from the infection. It seems to me that in a normal person, this strain is flu is less severe than the seasonal.flu.

The Corona virus is not a "strain of flu"

You may wish to tell to frontline medical staff and the millions under lockdown in China and elsewhere it's "less severe than the seasonal flu" - I'm fairly certain that will be of comfort to them...

CinemaGuy45

gozunda wrote: »

The Corona virus is not a "strain of flu"

You may wish to tell to frontline medical staff and the millions under lockdown in China and elsewhere its "less severe than the seasonal flu" - I'm fairly certain that will be of comfort to them...

Yes sure it is only a runny nose.





NOTHING TO SEE HERE.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

The Corona virus is not a "strain of flu"

You may wish to tell to frontline medical staff and the millions under lockdown in China and elsewhere its "less severe than the seasonal flu" - I'm fairly certain that will be of comfort to them...

I misspoke. I suppose. I should rephrase it as this virus that causes upper respiratory distress similar to the flu. You are correct though, the coronavirus is different to influenza A/B/C

CinemaGuy45

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Yes sure it is only a runny nose.





NOTHING TO SEE HERE.

I think you are underestimating how serious catching influenza is.

CinemaGuy45

Deleted User wrote: »

I misspoke. I suppose. I should rephrase it as this virus that causes upper respiratory distress similar to the flu. You are correct though, the coronavirus is different to influenza A/B/C

Very rare for anybody to admit they were wrong on here well done.:)

sweetie

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Oriental people have on average the highest IQs in the world they produce and have invented some great stuff Playstation Samsung Gunpowder.

The Irish have the lowest average IQ in Western Europe for anybody interested.

Being racist is trying to infer another race is inferior but we can all see what the Oriental peoples have achieved I don't see any racism.

Pointing our what some scumbags are doing there is not racist and I would assume the videos were captured and uploaded by people who are outraged and I would guess these people are of the same race.

So we see a few dirty scumbags in China and you respond oh we have scumbags here too.
Why do you need to point that out?

When some scummy junkie mugs somebody in Dublin do you feel the need to point out they have dirty junkies in India also?

You've lost me. Jeez

one armed dwarf

Been a while since I heard the term 'oriental people'.