new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

You are basing that 2% off total confirmed cases/deaths. The majority of cases will be self isolating/mild so won't be confirmed. You usually only end up in hospital if you have complications. Think of that 2% as a maximum and also take into fact that the Wuhan region is overwhelmed at the moment.

Thats not necessarily true. In China you can now face imprisonment or legal punishment for not admitting yourself to a hospital after developing flu symptoms.You must also show and ID and have your identity recorded when buying any medication from pharmacies. Why would anyone take that risk? I would imagine at the beginning a lot of mild cases went unconfirmed, but not any longer.

Anyway, the mortality rate is higher than 2% in Wuhan, I think it is about 3-4%. In Hubei province outside Wuhan it is 2.7%.Outside of Hubei, in the rest of China, it is 0.5%, the often cited 2 % is just the average of them all. Internationally it is 0.4% and it is interesting that it falls in line with mainland China, an area experiencing cases but similarly to international situations, their hospitals not being overwhelmed like Hubei, but the sample is really just too small still.

Charles Babbage

wakka12 wrote: »

China is not a poor country, at all, nor Singapore where many of the measures mentioned have occurred.

Singapore has not quarantined large areas, but has restricted public events and traced contacts of those involved.

4068ac1elhodqr

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Pneumonia causes lung damage, not Covid-19
People in critical condition spend weeks on strong meds attached to a machine while their bodies are fighting against the virus, that may also be the reason for heart failure

Some medic was saying the strong meds can weaken the heart, thus if caught again for a 2nd time (after 14days antibodies, or wave mutation) not long after the 1st, heart failure can be a factor.

The single most important preventative advice would be to never ever smoke, go easy on junk food, and live a healthy active life.

There are dietary/nutritional (and other) methods of increasing or preparing the immune system, but could be here all day, it would need a seperate thread.

gozunda

Catmaniac wrote:

Our elderly deserve to be protected, they too have lives to get on with.

They certainly do. Sorry to hear about your Mam btw.

To often older people are not given the determination that they should be given with regard to their own lives and / or healthcare.

As to Pneumonia- I have been hospitalised with this and ended up in isolation with medical staff in full PPE (The hospital wasn't sure at the beginning what I had gone down with). I've had Pleurisy and at least 2 serious doses of influenza. So I have great respect for those who have suffered these types of conditions or similar. I've also heard of pneumonia being described as the old persons friend - meaning that it will sometimes take older people who are longterm sick or unwell. The problem with that is that people dont get to make the choice whether they would wish for that option or otherwise. Not an infection I'd wish on anyone tbh.

Mic 1972

wakka12 wrote: »

Thats not necessarily true. In China you can now face imprisonment or legal punishment for not admitting yourself to a hospital after developing flu symptoms.You must also show and ID and have your identity recorded when buying any medication from pharmacies. Why would anyone take that risk? I would imagine at the beginning a lot of mild cases went unconfirmed, but not any longer.

Anyway, the mortality rate is higher than 2% in Wuhan. Outside of Hubei, in the rest of China, it is 0.5%, the often cited 2 % is just the average of them both.

2% is based on a sample that contains 85% of cases still without outcome, it means nothing

Cabin fever has well and truly set in with the posters in this thread. This is the practice run, folks. Get it together!

Today I have made chicken curry and Aloo Gobi. All portioned and in the freezer. Don’t know whether to go Middle Eastern or Italian cuisine tomorrow.

4068ac1elhodqr

2% has been widely mentioned and accepted as the fatality rate, even if it's lower at 1%, that's still 'tenfold' any regular Inf A/B type of flu.

Likey too early to say for sure, the boat with 185circa confirmed cases would make an ideal study.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% is based on a sample that contains 85% of cases still without outcome, it means nothing

Exactly. It's way over-estimated.

Mic 1972

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

2% has been widely mentioned and accepted as the fatality rate, even if it's lower at 1%, that's still 'tenfold' any regular Inf A/B type of flu.

Likey too early to say for sure, the boat with 185circa confirmed cases would make an ideal study.

2% is total deaths / total cases (including people still sick)
it's a widely useless figure, i cant say that enough

Legacy Better Explosion

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

2% has been widely mentioned and accepted as the fatality rate, even if it's lower at 1%, that's still 'tenfold' any regular Inf A/B type of flu.

Likey too early to say for sure, the boat with 185circa confirmed cases would make an ideal study.

It's not accepted. We don't have enough data to go on yet

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

Exactly. It's way over-estimated.

again, you need to do the math
Deaths increase, total cases stay the same (in a correct calculation), as a result the death rate will increase and will show the correct mortality rate

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% is total deaths / total cases (including people still sick)
it's a widely useless figure, i cant say that enough

So you reckon it's going to be higher? Say..... 9%?

odyssey06

Even if the death rate is 2%, we don't even know that that is 2% of, as we don't know how many people will get infected...

We're spinning our wheels on ice folks... the data is too dodgy \ too many gaps to draw any firm conclusions.
The key question for me is whether enough critical cases will be caused by the virus to overwhelm the medical capacity to treat them - which seems to be what's happening in Wuhan.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

again, you need to do the math
Deaths increase, total cases stay the same (in a correct calculation), as a result the death rate will increase and will show the correct mortality rate

What is a correct calculation? One that is convenient to your belief of the truth? In two months time, I'm 99.9% certain the mortality rate will be less than 2%. Fancy a charity bet? 100 euros? Say 3 months time if it's more than 2% I'd give the money to MSF, if it's below. You do.With your belief in the "business analyst" side of things. It should be an easy win for you.

4068ac1elhodqr

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% is total deaths / total cases (including people still sick)
it's a widely useless figure, i cant say that enough

It's also the best 'theoretical' figure available, at this early stage, for a virus with no vaccine or prevention available.

Yes it will adjust over time (time+data=accuracy). But for the time being the global media and organisations (wisely perhaps) are running with the 1-2% figure.

If you have firm, conclusive evidence otherwise, sure lash out an aul email to the bossman/lady at [email]info@who/odc/ecdh/nch/dxy.org[/email] etc they'll likely be on the edge of their seats waiting for such an email. Use uppercase, and an inverted smilie face emoticon, so it won't go to the spam folder.

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm using my clinical judgement. The stats aren't there to confirm one way or the other (at the moment) but clinically, the above 2% death rate seems very unlikely.

Clinically, this is a new virus. Never seen before. Confounding those on the front line. (As previously quoted which you referred to) clinically you may be judging this against your assessment of the flu, or SARS. It is neither.

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Clinically, this is a new virus. Never seen before. Confounding those on the front line. (As previously quoted which you referred to) clinically you may be judging this against your assessment of the flu, or SARS. It is neither.

Whilst it is a new virus. It is still a coronavirus which have been widely studied. So they can be educated messages made alongside known epidemiology of the coronavirus's in general.

fritzelly

Getting sick of post after post after post about the death rate - what's it matter, it's more than flu

Scrabbles38

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% is total deaths / total cases (including people still sick)
it's a widely useless figure, i cant say that enough

Your figures are as useless... last week it was a 20% mortality rate you where throwing around..

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

What is a correct calculation? One that is convenient to your belief of the truth? In two months time, I'm 99.9% certain the mortality rate will be less than 2%. Fancy a charity bet? 100 euros? Say 3 months time if it's more than 2% I'd give the money to MSF, if it's below. You do.With your belief in the "business analyst" side of things. It should be an easy win for you.

Your a gambling man.. :-) not too many posts ago
You said; "I don't agree with the Harvard professor. If the Covid-19 has infected 70% of the world by 31/12/20. I'd resign from my job. That's how confident I am at the moment."

I admire your courage, putting it all on the line like that!! Hats off to you.

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Your a gambling man.. :-) not too many posts ago
You said; "I don't agree with the Harvard professor. If the Covid-19 has infected 70% of the world by 31/12/20. I'd resign from my job. That's how confident I am at the moment."

I admire your courage, putting it all on the line like that!! Hats off to you.

Difference between infection and mortality.

SeaBreezes

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

Your figures are as useless... last week it was a 20% mortality rate you where throwing around..

Actually it WAS 20% for the last month of closed case mortality rates. They changed how they include cases now, so active cases have raised,
But death by pneumonia or organ failure is still not counted as a
Coronavirus case. That has resulted in the mortality rate lowering
By 1% every day since WHO got international boots on the ground.

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

Difference between infection and mortality.

I totally agree. Just admiring your chutzpah.
Not sure I'd be prepared to put my job on the line.

Carol25

Anyone following this thread work on the front line in medical care in Ireland? I’ve noticed a lot of children with quite a ‘dose’ this past week, persistent coughing, sinus, stomach, the works. They’ve all had the flu already before Christmas...just wondering diagnostically do the HSE keep records of what is currently doing the rounds...as I believe the Coronavirus if it is confirmed here will sneak in unawares during peak cough/cold season...

cameramonkey

Carol25 wrote: »

Anyone following this thread work on the front line in medical care in Ireland? I’ve noticed a lot of children with quite a ‘dose’ this past week, persistent coughing, sinus, stomach, the works. They’ve all had the flu already before Christmas...just wondering diagnostically do the HSE keep records of what is currently doing the rounds...as I believe the Coronavirus if it is confirmed here will sneak in unawares during peak cough/cold season...

Sinus problems are supposedly not a feature of this virus.

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I totally agree. Just admiring your chutzpah.
Not sure I'd be prepared to put my job on the line.

I was trying to calm the scaremongering but yeah. If it came 70%. I'm sure we would all be doomed anyway.

hmmm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Actually it WAS 20% for the last month of closed case mortality rates. They changed how they include cases now, so active cases have raised,
But death by pneumonia or organ failure is still not counted as a
Coronavirus case. That has resulted in the mortality rate lowering
By 1% every day since WHO got international boots on the ground.

That's not correct, they are now including people who are clinically diagnosed but are testing negative. There's going to be over-counting of deaths if anything.

Plus the current % is the CFR - i.e. the number of people who present to a hospital and are diagnosed. These invariably are the most sick. There is likely to be a huge amount of people who have the virus, and will not present to hospital because their symptoms are mild.

Scrabbles38

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Actually it WAS 20% for the last month of closed case mortality rates. They changed how they include cases now, so active cases have raised,
But death by pneumonia or organ failure is still not counted as a
Coronavirus case. That has resulted in the mortality rate lowering
By 1% every day since WHO got international boots on the ground.

Right so it’s not 20%... not all pneumonia deaths will be because of the coronavirus... in 2018 in Ireland deaths per 100,000 of population to pneumonia where 1084... if it comes here people will still die of pneumonia that’s not connected to the virus... same in China at mo

Carol25

Carol25 wrote: »

Anyone following this thread work on the front line in medical care in Ireland? I’ve noticed a lot of children with quite a ‘dose’ this past week, persistent coughing, sinus, stomach, the works. They’ve all had the flu already before Christmas...just wondering diagnostically do the HSE keep records of what is currently doing the rounds...as I believe the Coronavirus if it is confirmed here will sneak in unawares during peak cough/cold season...

I don't work in paeds unfortunately but it is RSV season.

McGiver

From the Chinese health agency (can they be trusted) as of 14 February.

Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

hmmm

Patients from the Diamond Cruise liner being hospitalised in ..... errr ..... Fukashima.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200214/k10012286481000.html

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Carol25 wrote: »

Anyone following this thread work on the front line in medical care in Ireland? I’ve noticed a lot of children with quite a ‘dose’ this past week, persistent coughing, sinus, stomach, the works. They’ve all had the flu already before Christmas...just wondering diagnostically do the HSE keep records of what is currently doing the rounds...as I believe the Coronavirus if it is confirmed here will sneak in unawares during peak cough/cold season...

Actually there was a thread on the pre Christmas dose that was doing the rounds, seemed to be quite rampant at the time somewhere between a very bad cold and the flu.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058041781

We all got that bad dose here, I think you are right and wouldn't be surprised to learn that if or when coronavirus comes here that it's already been around a while before anyone realises.

cameramonkey

hmmm wrote: »

Patients from the Diamond Cruise liner being hospitalised in ..... errr ..... Fukashima.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200214/k10012286481000.html

Out of the frying pan into the radio active fire.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's true, it really has its own characteristics.

Is organ damage caused by low blood oxygen or by the virus itself?

I was reading one report somewhere that one of the more common serious aftermaths is pulmonary fibrosis, where scar tissue builds up progressively in damaged lungs. The Corr singers mother died from an idiopathic (cause not determined) pulmonary fibrosis whilst awaiting lung transplant. A cleaner in my office died of same thing, ironically we had complained of years of diesel fumes penetrating into our work place. Some people would likely be more prone to this than others.

I also read reports where people suffered PTSD following the SARS 1 virus. No doubt some survivors of this will suffer similar consequence after such a severe illness.

SeaBreezes

hmmm wrote: »

That's not correct, they are now including people who are clinically diagnosed but are testing negative. There's going to be over-counting of deaths if anything.

Plus the current % is the CFR - i.e. the number of people who present to a hospital and are diagnosed. These invariably are the most sick. There is likely to be a huge amount of people who have the virus, and will not present to hospital because their symptoms are mild.

Historically deaths by organ failure and pneumonia were not included. So it will take a week or more to get a more accurate CFR. Hopefully the downward trend will stay consistent.


WE hope there are people at home with mild symptoms, nobody knows. Home deaths are not counted as cases either. So those numbers are anyone's guess educated or no.

We only know of 2 people so far outside of China who are asymptomatic and have tested positive for Coronavirus, again hopefully more will turn up..
But going on current stats..

odyssey06

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

Right so it’s not 20%... not all pneumonia deaths will be because of the coronavirus... in 2018 in Ireland deaths per 100,000 of population to pneumonia where 1084... if it comes here people will still die of pneumonia that’s not connected to the virus... same in China at mo

So subtract the average number of deaths from pneumonia for the month in question to establish a baseline versus current deaths... to give an approximate indication e.g. we're seeing a 5% or 25% or 500% increase in pneumonia related deaths. Is there a statistically significant difference?

Has China done this? Without that, current figures are not usable.

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

We only know of 2 people so far outside of China who are asymptomatic and have tested positive for Coronavirus, again hopefully more will turn up..
But going on current stats..

This would also mean more asymptotic carriers

SeaBreezes

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

Right so it’s not 20%... not all pneumonia deaths will be because of the coronavirus... in 2018 in Ireland deaths per 100,000 of population to pneumonia where 1084... if it comes here people will still die of pneumonia that’s not connected to the virus... same in China at mo

Agreed. But it was the LARGE number of people dying from pneumonia, that first alerted the front line that this was more than 'viral pneumonia' back in Dec.

So, a comparison of people who died from 'pneumonia' (as the Japanese man had on his death cert) or organ failure, would give a more accurate count.

Or, to include the deaths at home, an account of numbers cremated...

But I really really hope Im jumping at shadows. I know of at least 3 people, whom I love, who would be at risk from a disease that attacks the lungs.
I am very grateful that for kids, it seems to be a mild flu.

Does anyone know how long the quarantine goes on for?
When can they go back to work/normal life?

gozunda

McGiver wrote: »

From the Chinese health agency (can they be trusted) as of 14 February.

One of the first papers about the outbreak

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=featured_coronavirus

MD1990

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228808084912529408

cases are going down.

But deaths are still very high. I think the mortality rate is higher than 1%

hmmm

Definite down-trend now. It'd be ironic if China got theirs under control, and had to close their borders to the rest of the world to keep it out.

Charles Babbage

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

Actually there was a thread on the pre Christmas dose that was doing the rounds, seemed to be quite rampant at the time somewhere between a very bad cold and the flu.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058041781

We all got that bad dose here, I think you are right and wouldn't be surprised to learn that if or when coronavirus comes here that it's already been around a while before anyone realises.

This is not a reasonable presumption. There was a dose around and a proportion of people (old, existing condition etc) with this would have been at risk and would have been tested. There was no evidence of a new virus, even after the event.

Scrabbles38

odyssey06 wrote: »

So subtract the average number of deaths from pneumonia for the month in question to establish a baseline versus current deaths... to give an approximate indication e.g. we're seeing a 5% or 25% or 500% increase in pneumonia related deaths. Is there a statistically significant difference?

Has China done this? Without that, current figures are not usable.

I agree no figures are useable from China... we have to watch what is happening outside of China...people who want you to believe it’s 20% mortality rate ... there figures are wrong ..

fritzelly

Only 724 confirmed cases
Additional severe cases - zero

Curious

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

Dr McConkey on Séan O’Rourke has just described it as SARS Coronavirus 2. Rather an alarming term.

Thats its name..

COVID-19 is the disease it causes, and SARS-CoV-2 is the virus name..

Edit: Sorry just realised this is an older post. Apologies.

tuxy

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Thats its name..

COVID-19 is the disease it causes, and SARS-CoV-2 is the virus name..

Edit: Sorry just realised this is an older post. Apologies.

Well we have know it's a virus that can cause Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome since the info leaked from China. So even before the official name it was accurate to describe it as a SARS type of virus.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Charles Babbage wrote: »

This is not a reasonable presumption. There was a dose around and a proportion of people (old, existing condition etc) with this would have been at risk and would have been tested. There was no evidence of a new virus, even after the event.

This particular dose was before anyone knew about the current coronavirus.

Say if I come down with a really bad dose next week am I heading to the doctors or hospital so that they can test me for coronavirus? I think not, I wouldn't assume I have it and would treat it as I would any other cold or flu etc.

So in reality it could be possible for it to be spread around quite a bit before someone gets very sick and tests positive.

tuxy

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

This particular dose was before anyone knew about the current coronavirus.

Say if I come down with a really bad dose next week am I heading to the doctors or hospital so that they can test me for coronavirus? I think not, I wouldn't assume I have it and would treat it as I would any other cold or flu etc.

So in reality it could be possible for it to be spread around quite a bit before someone gets very sick and tests positive.

Not much they can do for you unless critical then oxygen, anti-viral(not sure if ti helps yet also antibiotics if you get a second bacterial infection.

Many people will go to work and work away even while ill.
Should people stay at home now? Would employers be more understanding?

gozunda

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

This particular dose was before anyone knew about the current coronavirus.

Say if I come down with a really bad dose next week am I heading to the doctors or hospital so that they can test me for coronavirus? I think not, I wouldn't assume I have it and would treat it as I would any other cold or flu etc.

So in reality it could be possible for it to be spread around quite a bit before someone gets very sick and tests positive.

I reckon that's one of the significant risk factors with regard to the spread of the disease globally. People will just think they don't have the virus.

A mild-to-moderate coronavirus infection is like the common cold, according to the CDC. Worldwide, people get sick from the four coronavirus types that cause milder infections every day. But three types—the ones that cause SARS, MERS, and Wuhan Coronavirus--have the potential to be fatal, and each of these has led to a significant global outbreak.

https://www.onhealth.com/content/1/respiratory_infections_causes

tuxy

That's true and for the people who don't go critical they tend not to feel too bad so probably will just go about their day.