new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

tillyfilly

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes the immediate thought when seeing something like that is that the person is ridiculous and dramatic but for a lot of people a virus like this could have serious consequence. Underlying illnesses are more common than you think

people wear face masks when they have an illness to avoid spreading it also

wakka12

National Institutes of Health (NIH) say world is on the verge of pandemic unless stricter measures are implemented
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/483294-nih-official-says-coronavirus-on-the-verge-of-reaching-global

wakka12

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/
A good new forum about coronavirus where only scientific research can be posted and discussed

Jimbob1977

The face mask was made of canvas and had a logo on it.... Like Juicy Couture or similar

wakka12

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-16/millions-with-flu-symptoms-may-need-to-self-isolate-due-to-coronavirus/
Crazy, NHS in England will stop testing for coronavirus after the 100th positive

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-16/millions-with-flu-symptoms-may-need-to-self-isolate-due-to-coronavirus/
Crazy, NHS in England will stop testing for coronavirus after the 100th positive

TBH there is little point counting from that point for the mere sake of counting.

People are best if it reaches that level to self quarantine.

saabsaab

BanditLuke wrote: »

They are about as accurate as a blind guy playing darts whilst drunk.

That good!

saabsaab

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

TBH there is little point counting from that point for the mere sake of counting.

People are best if it reaches that level to self quarantine.

But many won't, too busy too imoortant etc. etc.

A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isn’t likely to naturally occur, casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the World Health Organization. That’s aside from news on Thursday that health officials in the epicenter of the outbreak reported a surge in new infections after changing how they diagnose the illness.

…the number of cumulative deaths reported is described by a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said.

Put in an investing context, that variance, or so-called r-squared value, would mean that an investor could predict tomorrow’s stock price with almost perfect accuracy. In this case, the high r-squared means there is essentially zero unexpected variability in reported cases day after day.

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found similarly high variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

Real human data are never perfectly predictive when it comes to something like an epidemic, Goodman says, since there are countless ways that a person could come into contact with the virus.

For context, Goodman says a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said, “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”There’s one scenario where the data could be understandably jiggered, Goodman said. Because there are privacy concerns around public health data, it’s conceivable that someone would simulate the data based on real data, so as to make the individuals unidentifiable. But even then, the r-squared in this case is extraordinarily high. Moreover, says Goodman, when data are manipulated to protect privacy, it would need to be disclosed; there is no such disclosure on the WHO site.


https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/02/parasite-vs-virus-tourism-demands-re-opening-to-china/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

fritzelly

Understand where the NHS is coming from - there is just no serious cases outside of Chinese residents/people with direct contact in Wuhan
But...I wonder is the seriousness of it in China due to reinfections with an already weakened immune system and the normal antibodies you would produce have a very short shelf life ergo the "rapid" response outside China by isolation people preventing that happening, even preventing any even slight mutations
We know flu mutates when it hits critical mass but normal people lay up in bed til it's passed and it has a very short incubation period compared to not leaving the house time frame
Maybe the Chinese know this already (haven't seen any official reports saying it) and that is why they are restricting movement at a radical level

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say...

That junk has been quashed - every one of these people giving predictions used selective data and data points to suit their agenda
Both of those stocks/shares/market sites probably cross paths with those same twitter users "predicting" the virus

Kermit.de.frog

saabsaab wrote: »

But many won't, too busy too imoortant etc. etc.

That would be a decision for the UK government to make. What type of measures will they need to enforce quarantine?

As seen in China these can become draconian very quickly.

gozunda

fritzelly wrote: »

That junk has been quashed - every one of these people giving predictions used selective data and data points to suit their agenda
Both of those stocks/shares/market sites probably cross paths with those same twitter users "predicting" the virus

So you're saying the Chinese figures are correct?

fritzelly

gozunda wrote: »

So you're saying the Chinese figures are correct?

Don't matter - but those graphs "accurately" predicting everything are junk
Show me one that was historically right for more than a day or two

cameramonkey

If it takes 10 days from first symptoms to develop serious complications from the virus as has been the case then death rates will continue to go up long after new infection rates start to go down. If we have approx 15% getting pneumonia or serious lung problems after 10 days it may be even longer before they succumb to the virus. We have now have a huge amount of people who are seriously ill and many more joining them everyday, we have a huge well of people who are vulnerable so the death rate will probably increase before it gets better. The fact that less people are getting infected means that the 10 day lag from infection to serious illness will not be seen in the death rates for at least a week or two.

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Absolutely!!

My mother died aged 89 of hospital acquired pneumonia, and indeed indeed she was extremely reluctant to go into hospital when she had a vertebra fracture. Wanted to ride it out at home, but I was at work and couldn’t really take the several weeks off to stay at home and nurse her. She had enjoyed her birthday in Vienna, a weekend in Switzerland, and was just after coming home from a week touring with me in Derry & Donegal, and the following month we were due to go to Cyprus for two weeks. She absolutely delighted in these trips, and would have been all ears open about this Corona virus and getting me to order in masks, disinfectant etc. In the hospital she kept her daily diary with remarks about her blood pressure (always good), and various things she had been told. She also documented other patients conditions! One of them was “severely ill obese woman arrived in room having been taken off ventilator, I hear she has pneumonia and possibly a case of the Swine flu. I need to get discharged before I catch what she has and end up out in the box.” Two days later I saw her writing had deteriorated and could hear her breath was bubbly. Drew attention to the staff. Died two weeks later, peacefully, of ARDS lung failure.

Our elderly deserve to be protected, they too have lives to get on with.

Sorry for your loss.

gozunda

fritzelly wrote: »

Don't matter - but those graphs "accurately" predicting everything are junk. Show me one that was historically right for more than a day or two

Well it does when referring to the figures released. Check out the figures for those infected etc yourself and do the maths if you doubt any particular source. The figures are statistically the suspect no matter which way you look at them

fritzelly

gozunda wrote: »

Well it does when referring to the figures released. Check out the figures for those infected etc yourself and do the maths if you doubt any particular source. The figures are statistically the suspect no matter which way you look at them

I've checked and none match - the onus is on you to provide proof of some quasi-realistic modelling from people playing the markets that shows some actual proof of number crunching

Kermit.de.frog

The Prime Minister of Singapore says his country now faces recession as a result of the Coronavirus impact on the country's exports.

Their is a real risk of economic contagion spreading fast as a result of the lock downs.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1229233393440894980

fritzelly

gozunda wrote: »

Well it does when referring to the figures released. Check out the figures for those infected etc yourself and do the maths if you doubt any particular source. The figures are statistically the suspect no matter which way you look at them

fritzelly wrote: »

I've checked and none match - the onus is on you to provide proof of some quasi-realistic modelling from people playing the markets that shows some actual proof of number crunching

So nothing then?

Yurt2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Prime Minister of Singapore says his country now faces recession as a result of the Coronavirus impact on the country's exports.

There is a real risk of economic contagion spreading fast as a result of the lock downs.

A sh*tload of goods (both imported and for export) just sitting in Chinese ports at the moment. I understand Shanghai should be back up and running shortly though.

Tourism way down in Chinese traveler hotspots such as Thailand, Korea and Japan. Western business people spooked at traveling to the region. Hong Kong economy probably on life support as well. If it persists very far into the second quarter, China will have to admit their economy is in recession (If Singapore is heading for an imminent recession, China almost certainly is already) - will start bringing already sluggish growth in the region down.

The Kobe earthquake of 1995 was the first domino in the Asian Financial Crisis of the 90s. This could well be the black swan event that triggers something similar this decade.

Good graphs here, especially the ones with lag for deaths

https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/

Kermit.de.frog

Hong Kong armed gang steals toilet rolls as coronavirus panic-buying spreads

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/hong-kong-armed-gang-steals-toilet-rolls-as-coronavirus-panic-buying-spreads

Nijmegen

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/16/woman-let-off-cruise-ship-in-cambodia-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

The decision to let that cruise ship dock and start letting people off now appears to have been very dodgy indeed. One wonders were a few brown envelopes involved. The Cambodian government is still allowing flights to China and the prime minister threatened to kick journalists out of a press conference for wearing masks. He showed up and shook hands with people disembarking the ship.

Given that the virus has spread like wildfire through another cruise ship, I wouldn’t be surprised if it transpires they just let off a bomb in Cambodia and Malaysia.

From the article:

The director general of Malaysia’s health ministry, Noor Hisham Abdullah, said he believed further precautions should have been taken when passengers disembarked.

“Only 20 passengers had their tests done. That was what we were told,” he said. “The fact one case is positive, [means] all other passengers [have] exposure.”

Graces7

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

The face mask was made of canvas and had a logo on it.... Like Juicy Couture or similar

So? Your point is? The more folk mock the fewer youngsters will wear them. We need masks to become a fashion item. Well done that person!

Nijmegen

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/coronavirus-japan-braces-for-hundreds-more-cases-as-another-china-city-locked-down

413 confirmed cases with 6 new in Japan. They’re still using the method of counting the Chinese were till a few days ago (ie, confirmed tests only and not clinical diagnosis.) A nurse who was treating a patient and a member of the Health Ministry’s testing group have contracted it from people already infected. Excluding the cruise ship it’s 61 cases.

According to this story the health ministry official didn’t have any direct contact with passengers or crew onboard the ship. The durability of this virus is clearly quite something. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/17/national/science-health/two-new-cases-covid19-kanto-japan/

gozunda

fritzelly wrote: »

So nothing then?

Lol - If you mean did I sit up in the middle of the night waiting for you to reply? The answer is no.

But yes the figures have been massively under reported. Only in recent days has China added previously unaccounted deaths etc to the published totals. But hey I'd suggest believe what you want. We will probably never know the true figures there.

wakka12

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200217/k10012288511000.html
18 passengers on cruise ship in a serious condition

Where do you think the woman on the westerdam ship contracted the virus?

The ship departed Hong Kong on Feb 1st. Would the crew have been tested by now? Did she get the virus whilst in Hong Kong?

Tow

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200217/k10012288511000.html
18 passengers on cruise ship in a serious condition

From the article's photo, it looks like they are flying back on a cargo 747.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalitta_Air

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200217/k10012288511000.html
18 passengers on cruise ship in a serious condition

"A total of 1219 passengers and crew members were screened for the virus on the cruise ship by the 16th, and 355 cases were confirmed. Among them, 18 men and women in their 60s and 80s are severely affected, and more than half of them are receiving treatment in the intensive care unit. One person who has not been confirmed to be infected is seriously ill"

Sorry goggle translate not an exact science - how do you read this? half the 365 virus positive passengers are in ICU or half the 18? Virus on a cruise ship really is a disaster, surely this is one of the most at risk group - so sad.

I also feel sorry for Japan, this must be a significant drain on available ICU resources in Japan and no matter which response Japan takes it will likely be shoned.

ohnonotgmail

laurah591 wrote: »

"A total of 1219 passengers and crew members were screened for the virus on the cruise ship by the 16th, and 355 cases were confirmed. Among them, 18 men and women in their 60s and 80s are severely affected, and more than half of them are receiving treatment in the intensive care unit. One person who has not been confirmed to be infected is seriously ill"

Sorry goggle translate not an exact science - how do you read this? half the 365 virus positive passengers are in ICU or half the 18? Virus on a cruise ship really is a disaster, surely this is one of the most at risk group - so sad.

I also feel sorry for Japan, this must be a significant drain on available ICU resources in Japan and no matter which response Japan takes it will likely be shoned.

i would read it as half of the 18.

Pablo Escobar

laurah591 wrote: »

"A total of 1219 passengers and crew members were screened for the virus on the cruise ship by the 16th, and 355 cases were confirmed. Among them, 18 men and women in their 60s and 80s are severely affected, and more than half of them are receiving treatment in the intensive care unit. One person who has not been confirmed to be infected is seriously ill"

Sorry goggle translate not an exact science - how do you read this? half the 365 virus positive passengers are in ICU or half the 18? Virus on a cruise ship really is a disaster, surely this is one of the most at risk group - so sad.

I also feel sorry for Japan, this must be a significant drain on available ICU resources in Japan and no matter which response Japan takes it will likely be shoned.

I’d read that as 10 or 11 are in ICU.

wakka12

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f567u9/additional_99_cases_confirmed_on_diamond_princess/
99 more passengers on the cruise test positive. Total 454.
I imagine by the end of testing several thousand passengers on the ship will test positive.
It seems they are testing all passengers now. 70 of the 99 have no symptoms currently.

Also 6 new cases on mainland Japan overnight. Israel is now denying entry of Japanese, Thai, and Macua nationals into the country

Kermit.de.frog

The death boat

GooglePlus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The death boat

Start throwing that around and you'll have a pirate conspiracy in the mix

SeaBreezes

laurah591 wrote: »

"A total of 1219 passengers and crew members were screened for the virus on the cruise ship by the 16th, and 355 cases were confirmed. Among them, 18 men and women in their 60s and 80s are severely affected, and more than half of them are receiving treatment in the intensive care unit. One person who has not been confirmed to be infected is seriously ill"

Sorry goggle translate not an exact science - how do you read this? half the 365 virus positive passengers are in ICU or half the 18? Virus on a cruise ship really is a disaster, surely this is one of the most at risk group - so sad.

I also feel sorry for Japan, this must be a significant drain on available ICU resources in Japan and no matter which response Japan takes it will likely be shoned.

One person who is not confirmed to be infected is seriously ill... the test are crap. They have it, are seriously ill, and still testing negative...

Scuid Mhór

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/16/woman-let-off-cruise-ship-in-cambodia-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

The decision to let that cruise ship dock and start letting people off now appears to have been very dodgy indeed. One wonders were a few brown envelopes involved. The Cambodian government is still allowing flights to China and the prime minister threatened to kick journalists out of a press conference for wearing masks. He showed up and shook hands with people disembarking the ship.

Given that the virus has spread like wildfire through another cruise ship, I wouldn’t be surprised if it transpires they just let off a bomb in Cambodia and Malaysia.

From the article:

The director general of Malaysia’s health ministry, Noor Hisham Abdullah, said he believed further precautions should have been taken when passengers disembarked.

“Only 20 passengers had their tests done. That was what we were told,” he said. “The fact one case is positive, [means] all other passengers [have] exposure.”

Not sure why this isn't a bigger news story. Seems completely negligent, especially knowing how long it takes for the virus to incubate as well as it's high false negative rate for tests. This could be the seismic shift none of us wanted to see.

laurah591

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Not sure why this isn't a bigger news story. Seems completely negligent, especially knowing how long it takes for the virus to incubate as well as it's high false negative rate for tests. This could be the seismic shift none of us wanted to see.

Its mentioned here
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0217/1115759-coronavirus/

of note.... a real monkey covers eyes moment....Some 137 passengers from the Westerdam who also took the Malaysia flight with the American have now left on commercial flights for other destinations.

Wombatman

The "Death Boat" has become a stand alone region on this now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Only 1 listed as serious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9mStHpabi4

"Vironomics" about Chinese economy

Yurt2

The Japanese government deserve a kick in the a*s for not letting the passengers ashore and quarantining them properly. Very, very Japanese behaviour (and I'm fond of the Japanese in a lot of ways).

ohnonotgmail

Yurt! wrote: »

The Japanese government deserve a kick in the a*s for not letting the passengers ashore and quarantining them properly. Very, very Japanese behaviour (and I'm fond of the Japanese in a lot of ways).

They are doing what is best for japan. as it is the cruise shop is self contained. They would prefer to keep it that way.

Hector Savage

I need to stop watching Dr John Campbell videos ...

wakka12

Wombatman wrote: »

The "Death Boat" has become a stand alone region on this now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Only 1 listed as serious.

There are 18 serious/critical, they were moved from the boat to a hospital in Japan so are counted as that and not on the ship, the Japan category now has 19 serious

cnocbui

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

They are doing what is best for japan. as it is the cruise shop is self contained. They would prefer to keep it that way.

No excuses, there are other ways of quarantining with perfect national safety, such as on islands, but even that is overkill. The US are using military bases, for instance.

ohnonotgmail

cnocbui wrote: »

No excuses, there are other ways of quarantining with perfect national safety, such as on islands, but even that is overkill. The US are using military bases, for instance.

Do they have an island spare with the correct facilities? DO they have a military base spare with the correct facilities?

Yurt2

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

They are doing what is best for japan. as it is the cruise shop is self contained. They would prefer to keep it that way.

I doubt you'd feel that way if you had a loved one on board.

Japan has the capacity to quarantine these people properly, they're just being very Japanese about it. If you think British people are subject to island mentality, you should pick the brains of the average Japanese lad in his 40s.

'A boat full of filthy diseased foreigners? Send it back!'

I have a good friend who is a long-term resident in Japan, he says he's very much enjoying seeing Japanese people gritting their teeth and being extra fake nice to the gaijin around for both the Rugby World Cup and the Olympics.

ohnonotgmail

Yurt! wrote: »

I doubt you'd feel that way if you had a loved one on board.

Japan has the capacity to quarantine these people properly, they're just being very Japanese about it. If you think British people are subject to island mentality, you should pick the brains of the average Japanese lad in his 40s.

'A boat full of filthy diseased foreigners? Send it back!'

I have a good friend who is a long-term resident in Japan, he says he's very much enjoying seeing Japanese people gritting their teeth and being extra fake nice to the gaijin around for both the Rugby World Cup and the Olympics.

They are in the same accomodation they were in while on their cruise so their accomodation should not be an issue. They are allowed out on deck for a period each day to get fresh air. they have meals delivered to them. They are taken to hospital if they get sick. The exact same conditions seem to be in effect for the people of Wuhan except they are not getting their meals delivered to them.