new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12

Even though the numbers are going down a lot, I still dont understand, how can anyone even still be getting infected by this virus seeing as nobody in Wuhan can even go outside or go to work or do anything? What possible way could the infection still be being spread from person to person? In addition to people probably being scared out of their mind to touch anybody else in public and probably always washing their hands and surfaces and wearing masks. Shoudnt the number of new cases since such a harsh lockdown be extremely small?

Would make you wonder how crazy high the number of infected people would be if there was no big government intervention, or if it was ignored or undetected for a lot longer, or if people were less afraid and just took less care to isolate and wash hands/surfaces, probably would be in the millions

ceadaoin.

wakka12 wrote: »

Even though the numbers are going down a lot, I still dont understand, how can anyone even still be getting infected by this virus seeing as nobody in Wuhan can even go outside or go to work or do anything? What possible way could the infection still be being spread from person to person? In addition to people probably being scared out of their mind to touch anybody else in public and probably always washing their hands and surfaces and wearing masks. Shoudnt the number of new cases since such a harsh lockdown be extremely small?

People who are caring for those who are sick seem to be extremely vulnerable to infection, whether that's family members or health care workers. So it could be getting passed on that way rather than from outside. And anyone who has to attend a hospital, even for other reasons is probably high risk too.

fritzelly

This comment on Reddit made me laugh

Turns out the way to beat the virus is to have the President declare it will be under control within two weeks, then the cases just start dropping like magic. Who knew?

SeaBreezes

fritzelly wrote: »

This comment on Reddit made me laugh

And replace the governer of hubei with someone who understands the stats required a little better? ..

I'm a little depressed. I thought the new numbers coming from Wuhan and hubei were from the WHO... now, I'm not so sure ./

tuxy

ceadaoin. wrote: »

People who are caring for those who are sick seem to be extremely vulnerable to infection, whether that's family members or health care workers. So it could be getting passed on that way rather than from outside. And anyone who has to attend a hospital, even for other reasons is probably high risk too.

Also Wuhan is completely overwhelmed. People who may have been ill for a few weeks are only getting diagnosed now and still many more infected who are not officially diagnosed.

fritzelly

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Somewhat worrying for those of us with parents/relatives who are 60+.

I think most people in that age spread in Ireland (and Europe wide) will be fine (barring any underlying conditions that could lead to complications) - we are a pretty healthy society. That's is probably telling in that there is no real bad cases outside China where someone has caught it in Europe, even those Westerners that caught it in China have all seemed to recovered. (cue it's a targetted Asian virus)

wakka12

Are we way healthier though..? Irish people are a lot fatter than Chinese people , just one example, and obesity puts you at higher risk of many diseases. Death from them can usally be delayed a long time with modern western medicine, but still, longer lifespan doesnt always mean we are 'healthier'

Also a side question but I wonder when they speak of the risk associated with underlying illness, does the risk apply equally to somebody with an illness that is being well controlled? For example if somebody with high blood pressure or diabetes is taking medications that ensures normal blood pressure and blood sugar will they still be at increased risk or just normalised risk now?

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

Are we way healthier though..? Irish people are a lot fatter than Chinese people , just one example, and obesity puts you at higher risk of many diseases. Death from them can usally be delayed a long time with modern western medicine, but still, longer lifespan doesnt always mean we are 'healthier'

Lot of fatties in China as well (including your diabetes/high blood pressure) - tried to find a decent report on health in Chinese but everything is US related
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_China

As you amended I think we control it better so it's no longer an issue whereas a lot of Chinese would go for "herbal" remedies that in the main do nothing.

fritzelly

Looks like it's over folks

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229558754561208320

fritzelly

Guys on the cruise ship must be like how the hell is there more cases on this single ship in a day than in a country with a population of over a billion - don't be playing the lotto

4068ac1elhodqr

The 454 number of confirmed from the plauge ship indicates it still needs very high levels of caution.

The ship could any hotel, office or school and it still isn't known how it's spreading so widespread.
Could be the air-con or water supply, of just someone in the kitchen weeks ago, mixed with a longish incubation.

Singapore & Japan with circa 70cases each, will now likely be in the hundreds (2-300 before end of month).
If Thailand and S.Korea can keep it below 50, they have a chance to holding it back.

Chances are it's here for the year, and each winter after that.
The Hol'Inn in Heathrow has now been assigned the pending role of a flu hotel.

fritzelly

<tinfoil hat on>
China's economy is taking a nose dive
They need to send a message to the world - all is fine, we have the virus under control, start trading again and sending people here
<tinfoil hat off>

Sierra Oscar

fritzelly wrote: »

<tinfoil hat on>
China's economy is taking a nose dive
They need to send a message to the world - all is fine, we have the virus under control, start trading again and sending people here
<tinfoil hat off>

World Health Organisation are casting doubt over the figures.

Tbh the Chinese economy is starting to take a hit and it looks like the Government want to get people back to work. The isolation measures are undoubtedly having an effect but they can't stay in place forever.

fritzelly

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

World Health Organisation are casting doubt over the figures.

Oooh where is that reported? They won't even let them in to Hubei

When you see how much China exports
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271616/monthly-value-of-exports-from-china/

You have to wonder how this is really hurting their economy - that is massive numbers

Sierra Oscar

fritzelly wrote: »

Oooh where is that reported? They won't even let them in to Hubei

When you see how much China exports
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271616/monthly-value-of-exports-from-china/

You have to wonder how this is really hurting their economy - that is massive numbers

Coronavirus: WHO cautions over figures showing slowdown in infections

fritzelly

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Coronavirus: WHO cautions over figures showing slowdown in infections

Can you paste the text - paywall and archive is showing nothing

Call Me Jimmy

fritzelly wrote: »

<tinfoil hat on>
China's economy is taking a nose dive
They need to send a message to the world - all is fine, we have the virus under control, start trading again and sending people here
<tinfoil hat off>

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1229561171411439616

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Can you paste the text - paywall and archive is showing nothing

Not sure they are saying don't trust the numbers - more don't take this as a turning point that it's under control

Reported slowdown in outbreak ‘must be interpreted very cautiously’ – WHO
Chinese data showing a decline in new coronavirus cases “must be interpreted very cautiously”, according to the head of the World Health Organization.
“Trends can change as new populations are affected. It’s too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table,” Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, told reporters during a press briefing.
The latest Chinese government data showed the number of new coronavirus cases fell to the lowest level in three weeks. China has reported over 70,000 cases in total, including more than 1,700 deaths.
Dr Tedros added that it appears Covid-19 is not as deadly as other coronaviruses such as Sars and Mers.
Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s emergencies programme, said officials need to be extremely careful before characterising an outbreak as a “pandemic”. He said the majority of Covid-19 cases outside of China still have a “direct link back to China”.
“The real issue here is whether we’re seeing efficient community transmission outside of China, and at the present time, we’re not observing it,” Dr Ryan said.

cnocbui

fritzelly wrote: »

I think most people in that age spread in Ireland (and Europe wide) will be fine (barring any underlying conditions that could lead to complications) - we are a pretty healthy society. That's is probably telling in that there is no real bad cases outside China where someone has caught it in Europe, even those Westerners that caught it in China have all seemed to recovered. (cue it's a targetted Asian virus)

A US citizen died in Wuhan China. An article says she had underlying health issues and I believe she was Caucasian.

4068ac1elhodqr

fritzelly wrote: »

(cue it's a targetted Asian virus)

Conspiracy Theories -->...

igCorcaigh

Look at those death rates for the elderly.
I have been waiting for this info for a while.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1229516440308502528?s=19

The latest figures show that more than 12,000 people have recovered from the infection out of a total of more than 73,000 who have contracted it.
We have to assume that many more will recover if we factor in the latest comments by the head of the World Health Organization.

Speaking in Geneva, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said data from China had helped form a “a clearer picture of the outbreak” and that it appeared that four out of five people infected would recover. It was not as deadly as Sars or Mers, he said, adding:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/18/coronavirus-outbreak-updates-coronavirus-live-updates-hubei-deaths-china-wuhan-outbreak-apple-iphone-death-toll-latest-news

now I look at 73k and work out 2% to be 1,460 but 1800+ are already dead

fritzelly

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Look at those death rates for the elderly.
I have been waiting for this info for a while.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1229516440308502528?s=19

Someone quoted an actual decent twitter user, hallelujah

cnocbui

The coronavirus crisis was made in China, but no one will say it

Fairly scathing article about China's handling of this: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/the-coronavirus-crisis-was-made-in-china-but-no-one-will-say-it-20200217-p541hk.html

1800_Ladladlad

Im not sure whether this was about but they came on and took two women off the plane after texting? no other info it , does anyone know anything about it ?

https://twitter.com/MattieGriffin32/status/1229492618234454016

Nijmegen

fritzelly wrote: »

Not sure they are saying don't trust the numbers - more don't take this as a turning point that it's under control

I’m old enough to remember the virus “slowing down” at about 10,000 infected. Wait and see. Some numbers are just not believable, like Indonesia having no cases whatsoever. What we’re seeing in Japan is the key to watch I suspect, outside the ship: How it ticks up in a well controlled first world country that’s seen it coming.

cloudatlas

Oh no guys the apple phone supply has been cut, what tragedy next?! The Black Death never knew such tragedy.

Nijmegen

cloudatlas wrote: »

Oh no guys the apple phone supply has been cut, what tragedy next?! The Black Death never knew such tragedy.

Funny till you consider the economic knock on impacts; and you wonder what else China produces that perhaps we can’t live without so much of.

Fewer products means fewer shipments. Supply chain jobs. Means fewer sales. Service jobs. Means less VAT. Public jobs.

In Korea half of one of the worlds largest car plants has shut down for lack of parts. Workers without hours in both China and Korea now. How does this affect us? Well, lots of these people travel for their holidays or send their kids to study abroad. Bye bye to that revenue.

The economic impacts of this will be ginormous. And if China insists on going for their 6% growth target they could put everyone back to work before the virus is controlled.

ceadaoin.

cloudatlas wrote: »

Oh no guys the apple phone supply has been cut, what tragedy next?! The Black Death never knew such tragedy.

Yeah wait until every little (and big) thing you try to buy, except maybe food, is out of stock, hugely inflated or severely delayed. That's what happens when pretty much the whole worlds supply chain depends on one country. It's not that funny really. Could have huge knock on effects for everyone

Nonoperational

The interesting data is from Europe where the first cases are a few weeks old now. Those predicting disaster here may have been a touch premature. Who would have thought.

Nijmegen

Nijmegen wrote: »

Funny till you consider the economic knock on impacts; and you wonder what else China produces that perhaps we can’t live without so much of.

Fewer products means fewer shipments. Supply chain jobs. Means fewer sales. Service jobs. Means less VAT. Public jobs.

In Korea half of one of the worlds largest car plants has shut down for lack of parts. Workers without hours in both China and Korea now. How does this affect us? Well, lots of these people travel for their holidays or send their kids to study abroad. Bye bye to that revenue.

The economic impacts of this will be ginormous. And if China insists on going for their 6% growth target they could put everyone back to work before the virus is controlled.

Simply too many eggs in the one basket, especially when the basket is a communist dictatorship where some people have bad habits that can cause bat soup fever to turn global pandemic

I hope a lesson is learned!

Nijmegen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Simply too many eggs in the one basket, especially when the basket is a communist dictatorship where some people have bad habits that can cause bat soup fever to turn global pandemic

I hope a lesson is learned!

Joys of living in a globalised world. That trade dependency also brings relative peace and prosperity. This is the downside.

Nonoperational

Nonoperational wrote: »

The interesting data is from Europe where the first cases are a few weeks old now. Those predicting disaster here may have been a touch premature. Who would have thought.

Its always better to err on the side of caution when facing what could be a once in a lifetime pandemic. Those who got masks early were smart, its much harder to get the right kind of mask now. Stocking up has no real penalty as youll eat the stuff sometime. Anyway here is how you dont err on the side of caution:

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/fears-as-cruise-ship-passengers-scatter-take-cambodia-bus-tours-without-full-health-checks

Send a load of potentially infectious people out on bus tours

silverharp

It will add weight to the idea that the US should decouple from China. The US could focus on South America and India

Nonoperational

Deleted User wrote: »

Its always better to err on the side of caution when facing what could be a once in a lifetime pandemic. Those who got masks early were smart, its much harder to get the right kind of mask now. Stocking up has no real penalty as youll eat the stuff sometime. Anyway here is how you dont err on the side of caution:

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/fears-as-cruise-ship-passengers-scatter-take-cambodia-bus-tours-without-full-health-checks

Send a load of potentially infectious people out on bus tours

Some people here weren't erring on the side of caution. I have no issue with that. We should of course be cautious. They were presenting clueless nonsense as fact and portraying themselves as exerts, quoting youtube videos and opinion pieces with absolute certainty as to their veracity. Those youtubers have made a pretty penny feeding on it.

ardinn

This guy who was on sky a lot is now confirmed - he is a diabetic too - They seem like a lovely couple, hope they will be ok.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1229666495564787715?s=20

SeaBreezes

Nonoperational wrote: »

Some people here weren't erring on the side of caution. I have no issue with that. We should of course be cautious. They were presenting clueless nonsense as fact and portraying themselves as exerts, quoting youtube videos and opinion pieces with absolute certainty as to their veracity. Those youtubers have made a pretty penny feeding on it.

Funnily enough that's exactly why I come here, to a forum, of anonymous people, on the internet....

There's sooo much more info/theories/updates /sources than the usual news outlets. For peer reviewed stuff go to the lancet etc..
For everything else, check out the Internet forums. Of COURSE there will be many many points of view! I've leaned LOADS here.

If you don't want variety, don't come to an anonymous forum on the internet. Stick to the published peer reviewed studies :-)

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I had been harbouring secret thoughts of wanting to get this dose over and done with, but so far I’m reading that you don’t benefit by immunity from a recurrence of exact same virus, and indeed like the case in Dengue a Fever, the second dose kills you

This is why that happens> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

Below is about SARS, not Covid19. But bear in mind it is in the same family. No evidence of this happening with Covid19 at this point anyway.

We found that higher concentrations of anti-sera against SARS-CoV neutralized SARS-CoV infection, while highly diluted anti-sera significantly increased SARS-CoV infection and induced higher levels of apoptosis. Results from infectivity assays indicate that SARS-CoV ADE is primarily mediated by diluted antibodies against envelope spike proteins rather than nucleocapsid proteins. We also generated monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV spike proteins and observed that most of them promoted SARS-CoV infection. Combined, our results suggest that antibodies against SARS-CoV spike proteins may trigger ADE effects. The data raise new questions regarding a potential SARS-CoV vaccine, while shedding light on mechanisms involved in SARS pathogenesis.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X14013321

If it turns out that Covid19 is like that then its a game changer and something you dont want as part of your yearly cold and flu circulation.

oh and the WHO:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1179882.shtml

A World Health Organization (WHO) expert team, including American experts, has arrived in Beijing and will visit South China's Guangdong Province and Southwest China's Sichuan Province to research China's prevention and control work on the novel coronavirus.

The epidemic-stricken Hubei is not included in the international expert team's destinations, which, according to experts, is because the province is at a vital time combating the epidemic, and cannot spare time and people to receive the experts

https://twitter.com/business/status/1229551360904966144?s=19

Australian government offer to fly people back on condition of 14 days quarantine....all but 20 of the 200 accept:

“We flew business class and had business class baggage allowance. We called the embassy and said we would not be ditching any baggage for this aircraft."
Sydney couple Ellis and Kimberly Vincent said on Tuesday they had been given no information about the flight’s departure time or the baggage limits for the journey, and had little faith in the government.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-diamond-princess-australian-passengers-sceptical-of-evacuation-efforts/news-story/ea998ca0f0a9ec7c89e28e02709236db

LOL

SeaBreezes

From an article in nytimes:

Westerdam... (cruise ship that docked in Cambodia)

The (former) passenger, 83, is now hospitalized along with her husband, 85, who is showing symptoms of the disease and has twice tested negative but he has pneumonia.The husband case might show that after testing multiple times the virus still isn't detectable...

YFlyer

bmcc10 wrote: »

Tokyo marathon has been cancelled pretty big deal now considering it was a chance for competitors to qualify for the Olympics.

Elite athletes will be racing.

odyssey06

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Funnily enough that's exactly why I come here, to a forum, of anonymous people, on the internet....
There's sooo much more info/theories/updates /sources than the usual news outlets. For peer reviewed stuff go to the lancet etc..
For everything else, check out the Internet forums. Of COURSE there will be many many points of view! I've leaned LOADS here.
If you don't want variety, don't come to an anonymous forum on the internet. Stick to the published peer reviewed studies :-)

Plus, some of the stuff coming out from 'official' Ireland on this stuff is just garbage, it's not even up to date with the WHO (who finally seem to be cottoning onto China's dodgy figures) recommendations or even the NHS.

Whatever about Youtube, the information on international news sites about this versus what is available in Ireland is the difference between sending something by email and by post on a sailing ship.

volchitsa

SeaBreezes wrote: »

From an article in nytimes:

Westdam... (cruise ship that docked in Cambodia)

The (former) passenger, 83, is now hospitalized along with her husband, 85, who is showing symptoms of the disease and has twice tested negative but he has pneumonia.The husband case might show that after testing multiple times the virus still isn't detectable...

Or he has something else. He's 85 after all.

Edit: By the way, is he the guy who said he was a staunch Tory voter and had supported Boris J but had no faith in him to deal with this crisis? If so, that reduces my sympathy for him, as he seemed to be saying that when he voted for them he knew they were useless but didn't think then that he himself would find himself vulnerable to their recklessness/incompetence so he didn't mind tol much. I'd say Karma to that.

If they can send army rangers to Syria to pick up that waste of space Lisa Smith then the Irish government can go and get however many Irish citizens are stuck on that cruise ship.

GooglePlus

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

If they can send army rangers to Syria to pick up that waste of space Lisa Smith then the Irish government can go and get however many Irish citizens are stuck on that cruise ship.

Was she not in Turkey?

pc7

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

If they can send army rangers to Syria to pick up that waste of space Lisa Smith then the Irish government can go and get however many Irish citizens are stuck on that cruise ship.

Hopefully they’ll tag onto English rescue like they did for Ben Kavanagh in Wuhan.

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

Was she not in Turkey?

She could have been. But you get the gist of what I’m trying to say. All the stops should be pulled out to help them.

YFlyer

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

Im not sure whether this was about but they came on and took two women off the plane after texting? no other info it , does anyone know anything about it ?

https://twitter.com/MattieGriffin32/status/1229492618234454016

The guy was asked about two girls taken off the plane, 'were they Chinese or not (paraphrasing). He said I don't know their nationality but they're definitely not Chinese. How would he know?

Zenify

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

If they can send army rangers to Syria to pick up that waste of space Lisa Smith then the Irish government can go and get however many Irish citizens are stuck on that cruise ship.

She came back on a commercial flight (Turkish airlines).wouldn't want to be sitting next to the cruise ship passengers on a commercial flight.

ADE does not mean its impossible to create a vaccine which is good news. Lets hope its not like Dengue fever!

How do you go about creating a vaccine against a new virus?
Every virus has its unique challenges. In the case of n-coronavirus, the vaccine challenges are 2-fold. First, you have to interfere with the virus’s ability to dock with a specific receptor in the lungs called ACE2.

Then, you need to reduce the problem of antibody-dependent enhancement. ADE means that some respiratory virus vaccines can actually make things worse. There are multiple ways to solve this problem. One option is creating a vaccine that only uses parts of the pathogen to stimulate the immune system. One approach is to do this by producing recombinant protein subunit vaccines.

We have found that these vaccines that use a part of a protein of the virus (the spike protein) and known as the receptor binding domain (RBD) are optimal for 2 reasons: Recombinant proteins are a standard technology that has resulted in other licensed vaccines, including the hepatitis B and HPV vaccines; and it’s possible to produce this vaccine in abundance and at low cost.

Moreover, this approach, unlike many others, reduces ADE and has a potential for being safe.

Peter Hotez, MD, PhD, is dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and Co-Director, Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development.

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2020-02/coronavirus-expert-reality-check

Nonetheless, like other coronaviruses, vaccine-induced disease enhancement is also a concern in MERS-CoV vaccine development. MERS-CoV preexisting antibodies have been recently shown to contribute in disease enhancement.
....................
SARS It was also shown in the same study that ADE response was dependent on antibody titers, as sera with high antibodies concentration neutralized the virus, while diluted sera significantly enhanced the infection and induced more apoptosis (Wang et al., 2014)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6290032/

The above would mean if you dont maintain high enough levels of anti bodies then the second exposure and subsequent infection would be nasty

MD1990

wakka12 wrote: »

Even though the numbers are going down a lot, I still dont understand, how can anyone even still be getting infected by this virus seeing as nobody in Wuhan can even go outside or go to work or do anything? What possible way could the infection still be being spread from person to person? In addition to people probably being scared out of their mind to touch anybody else in public and probably always washing their hands and surfaces and wearing masks. Shoudnt the number of new cases since such a harsh lockdown be extremely small?

Would make you wonder how crazy high the number of infected people would be if there was no big government intervention, or if it was ignored or undetected for a lot longer, or if people were less afraid and just took less care to isolate and wash hands/surfaces, probably would be in the millions

Probably still paying the cost of going nearly 2 months of no quarantine in Wuhan