new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

laurah591

Zenify wrote: »

Did I misunderstand an earlier comment.... did an Australian couple refuse to be evacuated from the ship because they weren't sure if they could bring all their bags?

Nope lol.... they paid for there bags and so help em.... they coming home with there bags.

I guess they don't believe this virus is a risk to them

laurah591

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Lovely.

I wonder if the people on that homeward bound flight knew who they were sitting beside

SeaBreezes

Zenify wrote: »

Did I misunderstand an earlier comment.... did an Australian couple refuse to be evacuated from the ship because they weren't sure if they could bring all their bags?

I wonder what they are smuggling...;-)

dominatinMC

Just to clarify on previous posts, here is the link to the RTE story. Nowhere does it state that "those returning from the affected ships may not have to quarantine". Although the report is quite ambiguous and vague in detail..

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0218/1116033-ireland-coronavirus/

laurah591

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Iwonder what they are smuggling...;-)

lol
:D

wakka12

Yeh youd think people on social media were making a big fuss out of f*** all. By the far the largest and most stringently implemented quarantine in human history is currently ongoing and covers over 10% of the world population,the olympics may be cancelled for the first time since the world wars,some of the largest and most important economies in the world may go into recession,a totally unknown and novel virus of uncertain lethality could very easily infect a huge percentage of the world population,almost 2,000 people have died in just 5 weeks in a city where youd generally expect about that number of flu deaths over the course of an entire year(and that would be a in a really bad flu season, and doesnt take into account the harsh quaratine and lockdown which stopped much of the infections), if anything I think the worldwide media/social media is almost bizarrely quiet about it

SeaBreezes

gozunda wrote: »

Fairly standard Irish State level of information being provided on emergency planning there and elsewhere tbh - ie bugger all squared

According to the news this morning the Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed there are Irish citizens on board a cruise ship in Japan and the cruise ship in Cambodia (I presume among those not cleared for departure)



Yeah reckon that's deciding what type of biscuit options there are for the meetings that may be scheduled sometime somewhere ...

If it hits here our hospital and response services will be well and truely fooked and no fault of hard working frontline staff either ...

I would imagine it's here already.. The tests are not accurate.

We have people in limerick, dublin and cork hospitals who have tested negative, but I assume have the symptoms as they were suspected cases. I guess they are suspect due to recent geographic location. Otherwise why think it's Coronavirus?

I also assume that's why the Chinese lumped suspected cases in with actual cases, and a clinical diagnoses is enough.

Drumpot

cnocbui wrote: »

Why doesn't a journalist challenge the liars in government and ask how is it our medical services could cope with an outbreak, when the norm is for there to be 9+ month waiting lists for innumerable medical procedures and Limerick regional hospital has had people on trolleys for the last decade. If there is the capacity to cope then why hasn't that capacity been used to eliminate waiting lists and get people off trolleys?

I think some people think that asking serious questions is tantamount to inciting panic. Want to understand whats going on and what we would do in this country if it did break out, is somehow being attached to some sort of panic narrative that I don't really get. I am not on twitter or facebook (other then work and contacts) so I dont know whats going on those sort of mediums.

As I said from my own small story of my estate flooding, panic ensued not so much because the estate was flooding but when there was no plan , coordination or idea what was being done in event of the flooding getting worse. Even after the event (the first time), no real plan or communication was improved. It really was as if each time our estate flooded we would just make it up as we go along.

I work in the insurance industry so I do like statistics to understand probability. A couple aged 40, non smokers have an 89% chance of one of the following happening to one of them before they are 68 (state pension age):

- Death (10%) (24% if smokers)
- Serious Illness (29%) (50% if smokers)
- Unable to work for a month or more (83%)(94% if smokers)
- One of the above (89%)(98% if smokers)

*Statistics risk calculator from Aviva , worked out by actuaries

I think this is important in my understanding of people's thought process towards events that could harm them. In my experience, most people do not believe they are going to be in the 89%/98% probability in those figures. Quite often, people who know me dont really think of life assurance or other covers as anything other then a product to be sold, until they see me at a funeral or if somebody they know gets unwell.

And if that's the case, then its no surprise that most people dont really worry too much about a virus that only kills maybe 2% of those infected. And then if the majority of those are elderly (and not children), there is even less concern from those very unlikely to be affected. Therefore they dont think of the potential consequences (economy, health service, availability of goods and services) of them being complacent and not taking this virus seriously. This leads to the potential for the virus to spread increasing just by this factor on its own.

wadacrack

The lack of coverage highlighting the risk is not a surprise. Most people don't value their health. Diet and climate change prime examples.

BorneTobyWilde

David and Sally the update specialists on the Cruise ship now have been infected, how crazy is that. They only have it because they were held hostage on a ship where the virus was.

wakka12

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f5s6xe/covid19_share_of_daily_confirmed_cases_feb_17_2020/
80% of new daily infections are still occurring in Wuhan, 10% in Greater Hubei. The 4% rest of China, 1% worldwide outside China, and 5% on the Diamon Princess lol

Snow Garden

cnocbui wrote: »

Why - who has died or come to harm?

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

Snow Garden

Deleted User wrote: »

Its always better to err on the side of caution when facing what could be a once in a lifetime pandemic. Those who got masks early were smart, its much harder to get the right kind of mask now.

SARS was in 2003.

wadacrack

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

This is a new and much more dangerous illness, its been only around about 8 weeks or so.

timmyntc

Snow Garden wrote: »

SARS was in 2003.

SARS wasn't pandemic, it had low infection rates and was restricted to China/SEA.

nCov is much more infectious - the danger with something that spreads this easily and incubates for so long is that if it becomes widespread it could be very difficult to ever get rid of.
Basically it could become a new, more lethal flu-like illness in that it's always spreading & mutating.

odyssey06

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap
CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.
How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

Did the Chinese quarantine one of their provinces because of flu?
Or because of the hype on this thread?
Is there a cruise ship quarantined because someone has the flu?
Or because of the hype on this thread?

You read it here first folks. We have the power to get ships quarantined.
I've never liked Luxembourg. How do we get that quarantined?

Oh wait no, in reality we are dealing with a new and unknown contagious virus with the potential for a global pandemic.

ohnonotgmail

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

and if we had 26 million cases of this virus we would have a conservative estimate of 100,000 deaths. just some more perspective.

Nijmegen

I thought we had left the "yeah but the average flu kills 14,000 people per year and ye don't panic about that." Or is it just that every 100 pages of the thread we go back round on it. The infectious potential of this virus and its death rate are significant vs the typical flu, and if left uncontained it could infect and kill significantly more on top of the well understood and tackled flu (just the same as the typical flu would kill far more if we didn't invest significant amounts into fighting it, just that we do so in a fairly procedural way so that it falls away into the background). If this virus is contained at, say, 3,000 deaths some might say "Ha, it wasn't even as bad as a normal flu!" without really stopping to consider the simply tremendous efforts that had to be lent to stopping it from killing many more. 10% of the worlds population are on lockdown and they're spraying the streets with truck loads of disinfectant. They're not doing it for the craic.

cnocbui

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

To give you some perspective, 50% of Europe's population died due to the Black Death. That would be 370 million people in today's numbers. Keeping a close eye on a developing situation involving a new pandemic pathogen isn't panicking or foolish. There is far more panicking and foolishness going on regarding 'climate change' and no one has even died.

SeaBreezes

I see closed cases fatality rate has dropped another 1% now at 12% its been dropping by 1% a day since the new hubei governor took over.
I thought it was WHO on the ground but apparently not..

Now there's a man who understands stats...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Seems to have mostly died down in Vietnam. No new cases in five days and eleven out of sixteen released. I did have to fill in some government form today though for my landlord explaining my recent travel and whether or not I have any symptoms.

cnocbui

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I see closed cases fatality rate has dropped another 1% now at 12% its been dropping by 1% a day since the new hubei governor took over.
I thought it was WHO on the ground but apparently not..

Now there's a man who understands stats...

I'd say more like he understands Xi Jinping and what happened to his predecessor and many other officials in Hubei province.

wakka12

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

Because those flu deaths were across a country of over 300 million?That is 30 times the population of Wuhan but only 8 times the number of flu deaths that Wuhan has experienced from coronavirus, the 'flu season' has also been operating on a widespread scale for several months longer in the US, this all began in early-mid january for Wuhan

Going by commonly cited flu statistics with a 1% severe complication rate and 0.1% mortality rate and generally infecting 5-20% of the American pop annually, Wuhan with a population of 11 million should experience 2200 flu deaths(high estimate, going by a 20% infection rate) over the course of a year. It has been five and a half weeks since the first person died on January 10th and now 1790 people have died in Wuhan in that timeframe so it is considerably more than youd expect from a typical flu season, this also doesnt even take into consideration the fact that most of Wuhans population has not even been allowed to go outside for the last month, of course considerably reducing the infection rate total

Coronavirus is absolutely and undoubtedly a much larger global health issue than seasonal flu. I seriously cannot believe this is still being discussed, 5 weeks into the largest quaratine in human history

CrankyHaus

I think this Deutsch Welle article strikes a good balance of getting the scale of the problem across in an informational summary while not spreading panic.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-hopes-to-contain-covid-19/a-52380880

The official approach here in Ireland seems to be to downplay like mad, which actually creates a vacuum that may be filled by panic.
It reminds me slightly of the official narrative on economics in 2207 and 2008 - "we shouldn't talk ourselves into a recession".

Spudmonkey

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Seems to have mostly died down in Vietnam. No new cases in five days and eleven out of sixteen released. I did have to fill in some government form today though for my landlord explaining my recent travel and whether or not I have any symptoms.

I'm just back after spending the last two weeks there and was keeping an eye on the numbers. They seemed to take it seriously enough on entry, anyone with any previous travel to china was pulled aside and detained. In HCM they had a guy monitoring people's temperatures using a thermal imaging camera. Most people there were using the masks and they had alcohol handwashes in various places. It also seemed to be a fairly big presence on Telly. Most news outlets were covering it.

At the same time you'd still see people heavily involved in the communal sharing of food which I thought would be a sure fire way to spread it. They must have done a relatively good job isolating it in that town they quarantined.

fr336

I've always found it interesting how humans love scaring each other when it comes to war but if you take something potentially on your doorstep like this seriously, it's scaremongering. Let the people get back to their gossip, guys.

Nonoperational

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I would imagine it's here already.. The tests are not accurate.

We have people in limerick, dublin and cork hospitals who have tested negative, but I assume have the symptoms as they were suspected cases. I guess they are suspect due to recent geographic location. Otherwise why think it's Coronavirus?

I also assume that's why the Chinese lumped suspected cases in with actual cases, and a clinical diagnoses is enough.

So you think every case tested in Ireland was a false negative?

Physicians have been receiving regular emails with updates and just today amendments to the protocol for suspected cases. There are regular tutorials re personal protective equipment. Masks and suits are readily available. There have been numerous suspected cases. None have been confirmed. They are all being treated as are the thousands of other sick people cared for every day.

Snow Garden

timmyntc wrote: »

SARS wasn't pandemic, it had low infection rates and was restricted to China/SEA.

nCov is much more infectious - the danger with something that spreads this easily and incubates for so long is that if it becomes widespread it could be very difficult to ever get rid of.
Basically it could become a new, more lethal flu-like illness in that it's always spreading & mutating.

SARS was a pandemic.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3329048/

It was reported in 29 countries.

Snow Garden

cnocbui wrote: »

To give you some perspective, 50% of Europe's population died due to the Black Death. That would be 370 million people in today's numbers. Keeping a close eye on a developing situation involving a new pandemic pathogen isn't panicking or foolish. There is far more panicking and foolishness going on regarding 'climate change' and no one has even died.

:rolleyes:

Graces7

gozunda wrote: »

Taking a look at government communications to date and the state emergency website - there's fuk all being done apparently. I would love that to be proven otherwise tbh

The HSE is currently log jamed with significant waiting lists for beds in all the major hospitals. Not a chance in hell there is available capacity or resouces for any type of an emergency in the present system

Btw I'm not comparing anything to food rationing - that was a response to this


The point is the state took some fairly effective hands on controls at a national level during the 'last war' you mentioned. - It's not possible for the individual to make national provision but rather I'd hope the relevant authorities are up for taking the finger out

But yes agreed people can do stuff to help themselves - though that doesnt mean those in charge shouldn't be at least doing some half decent contingency planning for this or even similar events.

There is nothing you or I can do re the govt ( although I think you missed the article on rte some weeks ago; it was very detailed indeed about emergency corona contingencies) so why waste precious breath and energy about it here? Pester your TD? Make a fuss in the right place? Nothing anyone here can do; no powers. And distracts from our reality.

Must be an Irish thing this … My English streak is on top; plenty to do checking provisions, checking on vulnerable neighbours, etc etc Things no govt can do. Our job. More than enough to do.

Snow Garden

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

and if we had 26 million cases of this virus we would have a conservative estimate of 100,000 deaths. just some more perspective.

Yeah and if my auntie had balls she would be my uncle.

The point is that very few if any people in Ireland will die from this new corona virus.

As far as prep goes I've spent less than 50 quid to stock up on noodles, tinned meat, tinned fruit and some frozen stuff. All stuff I'll eat anyway but I can stay indoors for a couple of weeks at any point. It's not hard or expensive to be somewhat prepared for the unforeseen.

Fr_Dougal

Two Irish have tested positive over in Japan.

ohnonotgmail

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yeah and if my auntie had balls she would be my uncle.

The point is that very few if any people in Ireland will dies from this new corona virus.

I love how confidant you are about all this.

givyjoe

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yeah and if my auntie had balls she would be my uncle.

The point is that very few if any people in Ireland will die from this new corona virus.

How do you know?

s7ryf3925pivug

pc7 wrote: »

It really is morally wrong to keep them on it with such a spread occurring.

This seems to be sinking in: Health experts question coronavirus quarantine measures on cruise ship

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/global-health-experts-question-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-measures?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

splinter65

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Two Irish have tested positive over in Japan.

They’re Irish citizens but they live elsewhere in Europe.

Fr_Dougal

splinter65 wrote: »

They’re Irish citizens but they live elsewhere in Europe.

Cork?

cherryghost

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Cork?

"The department says that the two people share dual citizenship with another EU member state and are not normally resident in Ireland.
"

wadacrack

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yeah and if my auntie had balls she would be my uncle.

The point is that very few if any people in Ireland will die from this new corona virus.

Ypu dont know that, the threat is definitely their that this could lead many deaths in this country. Singapore seem to be doing a great job atm, certainly are taking it very seriously and I hope we follow similar protocols

Fr_Dougal

cherryghost wrote: »

"The department says that the two people share dual citizenship with another EU member state and are not normally resident in Ireland.
"

I wasn’t being serious, think they have dual German and Irish citizenships.

laurah591

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/18/WS5e4b7c03a31012821727864d.html

This guy was director of hospital, this was flagged on Twitter yesterday and then revoked and he was said to be alive.

SeaBreezes

Nonoperational wrote: »

So you think every case tested in Ireland was a false negative?

Physicians have been receiving regular emails with updates and just today amendments to the protocol for suspected cases. There are regular tutorials re personal protective equipment. Masks and suits are readily available. There have been numerous suspected cases. None have been confirmed. They are all being treated as are the thousands of other sick people cared for every day.

I don't think anything of the sort, I didn't say that at all.


I think the tests have proved very unreliable.
I think our excellent health care staff have people with suspected COVID19 tested for very valid reasons. This has happened in limerick, dublin and cork hospitals.
I think a clinical diagnosis maybe the closest you can get to an official diagnosis until the test accuracy improves.
I think it may take time but some of them will test positive eventually..

Do you not agree?

gozunda

Graces7 wrote: »

There is nothing you or I can do re the govt ( although I think you missed the article on rte some weeks ago; it was very detailed indeed about emergency corona contingencies) so why waste precious breath and energy about it here? Pester your TD? Make a fuss in the right place? Nothing anyone here can do; no powers. And distracts from our reality. Must be an Irish thing this … My English streak is on top; plenty to do checking provisions, checking on vulnerable neighbours, etc etc Things no govt can do. Our job. More than enough to do.

That clearly wasnt the point was it. This is a discussion and yes It is evident that the state have little if any communication or apparent contingency planning in place and the HSE is certainly not well placed to handle such a crisis considering the state of the healthcare system at present. Those are the facts.

But yeah bleedin Irish people are incapable of figuring the basics of having a few provisions and checking their neighbours! Thanks for that :rolleyes:

gozunda

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Two Irish have tested positive over in Japan.

From the Independent

Independent.ie has learned that two out of six Irish citizens on board the Princess Diamond Cruise Ship, which is currently docked off Yokahama, Japan, have tested positive for COVID-19.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/two-irish-citizens-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-38968278.html

tromtipp

The only nation wide health emergency we've had in recent years wasn't human, it was the Foot and Mouth outbreak in 2001. There was a pretty good co-ordinated response to that, with national govenment, local authorities, business and communities working together to cancel events, set up disinfectant barriers (possibly ineffective at disease control, but good at awareness raising), have a national voluntary close down on walking in the countryside, and so on. It was the first time we saw a lot of Northern Irish Unionists hold up RoI actions as a good example in contrast to the UK government. Don't underestimate people's preparedness and ability to act sensibly if they're convinced of a threat and advised on their response.

Drumpot

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I don't think anything of the sort, I didn't say that at all.


I think the tests have proved very unreliable.
I think our excellent health care staff have people with suspected COVID19 tested for very valid reasons. This has happened in limerick, dublin and cork hospitals.
I think a clinical diagnosis maybe the closest you can get to an official diagnosis until the test accuracy improves.
I think it may take time but some of them will test positive eventually..

Do you not agree?

This time last year I was heading to Iceland. I had a cough (similar of which I have now) at the time and was advised to get a scan in A&E only if I was concerned because of my holidays(doctors didnt think it was serious). I got the scan because it was going on for weeks and I didnt want to be taking any risks in Iceland if I had anything more serious.

A&E looked at scan and said its all grand . . Great, went off to Iceland, had a great time and thought nothing of it. A week or so later I get a call from the hospital who must of reviewed my scan to say they spotted something on the scan (no indication of what) and they asked me to come back in. I went back into the hospital and nobody would tell me anything, suppose they couldnt say for certain what was going on.

They did another scan and eventually told me it looks like I had Pneumonia (after doctors and hospital told me it was nothing) but now it was gone. I didn't make a song and dance about it. But what that shows is how mistakes can happen even in a non crisis event. It also suggested to me that even when the authorities (doctors and hospital) are telling you its all grand, sometimes you instinct means its worth pursuing answers if you dont feel its right. I was convinced by the authorities that I was making too much out of it. Again, I am not angry with them as it was not intentional, but again it shows that sometimes the authorities get things wrong.

With regards to the testing of this illness, does anybody have any definitive evidence of how accurate these testing procedures are in Ireland ? You see different stats thrown about in terms of how much we know how to tell the difference between this virus and others. What about people who have shown no symptoms, have they been tested ? How would we know who to test ?

I am not overly concerned, I just find these questions really interesting. I know it worries some people to even think about it, but you never see answers to these questions. So we get something like "70 people have been tested negative in Ireland" with no indication of the test or its reliability and people think that means its not here. I was tested for Pneumonia last year and even though they know about what to look out for, they still struggled to diagnose it. Is it that simple to spot the coronavirus in comparison to pneumonia ? (I ask these questions out of interest)

cnocbui

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

This seems to be sinking in: Health experts question coronavirus quarantine measures on cruise ship

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/global-health-experts-question-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-measures?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Some experts! I said they should get them off the ship, 8 days ago: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112502127&postcount=4331

tromtipp

And in that same year, in the wake of 9:11, when no-one knew what was really going on, response protocols for possible threats including anthrax attacks were put in place quickly - not needed so far, but there and able to be revived. The State existed in a state of emergency for decades before the peace process in the late 80s and 90s - there's still a corporate memory of planning for disasters.

saabsaab

The foot and mouth was proactive and done well. Why not now?

Maybe the Dept of Agriculture could advise the Government.