new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

SeaBreezes

Graces7 wrote: »

There is nothing you or I can do re the govt ( although I think you missed the article on rte some weeks ago; it was very detailed indeed about emergency corona contingencies) so why waste precious breath and energy about it here? Pester your TD? Make a fuss in the right place? Nothing anyone here can do; no powers. And distracts from our reality.

Must be an Irish thing this … My English streak is on top; plenty to do checking provisions, checking on vulnerable neighbours, etc etc Things no govt can do. Our job. More than enough to do.

I respectfully disagree on all counts there.
People are the masters government should serve. Power to the people and all that if the gov is not acting in a way we agree, it is our duty to raise awareness and take the actions needed to effect change.

I was always kindof proud of how my local community look after each other. Especially during 'events' (weather usually) when people needed minding/help.
I didn't realise this was an English/irish/other nationality thing. We have a mix of nationalities here. I always thought of it as neighbourly.

Wibbs

Graces7 wrote: »

Must be an Irish thing this … My English streak is on top;

Being a sanctimonious pain in the arse isn't an "English streak", no more than not checking on neighbours is an Irish one.

gozunda

Nonoperational wrote: »

So you think every case tested in Ireland was a false negative? ...

.

Not sure if that was what the poster was detailing.

But anyway I reckon that the infection is most likely already in the wild. That is to say that there are those who are asymptomatic or only have very mild symptoms and that number is likley increasing. Afaik some 80% of all cases are of a mild type.

Most people are going to put being infected down to a simple cold or other infection imo. And not knowing they may have the Corona virus - they are unlikely to report to medical services and most likley wont appear on any statistics or even be known about. People will continue to travel from country to country and potentially spread the infection unknown to themselves.

What the incidence on the Cruise Ship in Japan has shown (for a given population where the infection is present) a significant proportion have been determined to be carrying the virus. This is not disimilar to the outbreak in Wuhan- which went from patient zero to endemic in approx 6-8 weeks - and significant numbers of critically Ill overwhelmingly health services.

For rapid spread - it would increasingly appear that a critical density of infection is the touchstone to a rapid widespread outbreak. Stopping that is the issue imho.

tara73

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

This seems to be sinking in: Health experts question coronavirus quarantine measures on cruise ship

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/global-health-experts-question-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-measures?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

I would bet my house on it it was the air con spreading it to every room. How the responsible people thought it's a good idea to quarantine the people on the ship with the aircon on was beyond me from the beginning..

PhantomHat

saabsaab wrote: »

The foot and mouth was proactive and done well. Why not now?

Maybe the Dept of Agriculture could advise the Government.

Perhaps its because our cloven hooved friends are less likely to panic with all the talk of a deadly disease. Hopefully the government despite not saying too much are proactively taking measures to effectively combat this.

tromtipp

I sympathise with the health authorities here - there's been a nasty virus going around in the midwest, rapid onset turning into a deep lung infection with a non-productive cough, loss of appetite and associated gut problems, persistent slightly raised temperature. Very like the Covid 19 symptoms, but not dangerous and around since mid December. If someone with this gets referred to hospital they probably have to test, even if they suspect it's just the same old same old. I'm in my seventh week of it, and a bit fed up, but I know I'm not seriously ill.

I'm sure that this as well as seasonal flu contributed to the overcrowding in UHL over the last month or so - at least if Covid 19 arrives in a few weeks time those two complications should have subsided.

gozunda

tromtipp wrote: »

I sympathise with the health authorities here - there's been a nasty virus going around in the midwest, rapid onset turning into a deep lung infection with a non-productive cough, loss of appetite and associated gut problems, persistent slightly raised temperature. Very like the Covid 19 symptoms, but not dangerous and around since mid December. If someone with this gets referred to hospital they probably have to test, even if they suspect it's just the same old same old. I'm in my seventh week of it, and a bit fed up, but I know I'm not seriously ill.

I'm sure that this as well as seasonal flu contributed to the overcrowding in UHL over the last month or so - at least if Covid 19 arrives in a few weeks time those two complications should have subsided.

Out of interest has anyone checked? UHL (and other hospitals) were overcrowded during the summer months and that now appears to be a standing situation unfortunately..

According to the Irish Times "UHL is consistently the most overcrowded hospital in the State" ..

GooglePlus

saabsaab wrote: »

The foot and mouth was proactive and done well. Why not now?

Maybe the Dept of Agriculture could advise the Government.

Burning suspected carriers of the coronavirus won't be an option.

ohnonotgmail

GooglePlus wrote: »

Burning suspected carriers of the coronavirus won't be an option.

perhaps only as a last resort.

tromtipp

I know UHL A&E has had systemic problems for years, and basically needs at least three times the space* and four times the staff, but descriptions from friends who have been in there this winter indicate that it went far beyond even the usual stacked-like-sardines conditions into something more war-zone like.


*Impossible to control infection in there as it is, with all the trolleys touching - I did several stints in there with elderly parents in recent years, and it wasn't fun. But even worse during flu season.

Doctor Jimbob

laurah591 wrote: »

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/18/WS5e4b7c03a31012821727864d.html

This guy was director of hospital, this was flagged on Twitter yesterday and then revoked and he was said to be alive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzKXq3JbP8s

tillyfilly

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

perhaps only as a last resort.

outdoor cremation could become common place

SeaBreezes

Warning this is NOT peer reviewed (yet) , and only based on 145 patients...

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news!-latest-research-published-by-chinese-scientists-say-coronavirus-might-render-certain-male-patients-infertile

A latest coronavirus research by medical scientists from Nanjing Medical University and Suzhou Hospital lead by Dr Jianqing Wang, Head of the Department of Urology, at Suzhou Hospital say that certain males affected by the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus which causes the Covid-19 disease might likely become infertile even if they recover from the infection.

RebelButtMunch

Do we know what the quarantine situation was aboard the ship? I haven't seen any reports about how the crew was handled, or how meals/linen/supplies to the cabins were handled. All I can guess is that people were confined to cabins, which isnt much use if crew is spreading it door to door, nor of the cabins are very closely ventilated.

Jim_Hodge

Graces7 wrote: »

Must be an Irish thing this … My English streak is on top; plenty to do checking provisions, checking on vulnerable neighbours, etc etc Things no govt can do. Our job. More than enough to do.

That's actually quite insulting. We Irish are quite used to checking on, and being friendly with our neighbours. How many neighbours did you check on, or bring food and fuel to, during the recent storms? Several people did so in my neighbourhood.

We'll handle the covid-19 as well as any others, should the need arise.

Jim_Hodge

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Do we know what the quarantine situation was aboard the ship? I haven't seen any reports about how the crew was handled, or how meals/linen/supplies to the cabins were handled. All I can guess is that people were confined to cabins, which isnt much use if crew is spreading it door to door, nor of the cabins are very closely ventilated.

The crews must have been under immense pressure. Passengers with internal cabins (no windows) are allowed out of their cabins for an hour and a half each day, for exercise and fresh air after that they and the other passengers are confined to their cabins. All meals are being delivered to the cabins.

Mic 1972

isn't it strange how all of a sudden no new cases are being registered in Europe? we were getting 5-6 new cases every day and then it all stopped. I hope things are not been kept from the public to avoid unnecessary worries. I'd rather know

Quantum Erasure

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Do we know what the quarantine situation was aboard the ship? I haven't seen any reports about how the crew was handled, or how meals/linen/supplies to the cabins were handled. All I can guess is that people were confined to cabins, which isnt much use if crew is spreading it door to door, nor of the cabins are very closely ventilated.

'Wholly inappropriate' quarantine practices may have helped spread coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, experts say

https://www.businessinsider.com/quarantine-may-have-helped-spread-cruise-ship-coronavirus-experts-say-2020-2

RebelButtMunch

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

The crews must have been under immense pressure. Passengers with internal cabins (no windows) are allowed out of their cabins for an hour and a half each day, for exercise and fresh air after that they and the other passengers are confined to their cabins. All meals are being delivered to the cabins.

So likely that the internal cabin passengers are mingling.

Jim_Hodge

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

So likely that the internal cabin passengers are mingling.

Indeed, seems inevitable.

gozunda

Wibbs wrote: »

Being a sanctimonious pain in the arse isn't an "English streak", no more than not checking on neighbours is an Irish one.

Oddly enough I've never heard the sobriquet, being used referring to the Irish as being generally 'Whinging' ...

Mic 1972

Drumpot wrote: »

Just spoke with my accountant (who is also a close friend) and he’s a very grounded man. I thought he was going to slag me for buying masks but he’s convinced China are fudging the numbers and that we aren’t being told everything.

China wouldn't surprise me, they might have done from the very start. But I'd be worried if Europe started to do the same.

laurah591

Mic 1972 wrote: »

China wouldn't surprise me, they might have done from the very start. But I'd be worried if Europe started to do the same.

999 cases outside China recorded now

wadacrack

Mic 1972 wrote: »

isn't it strange how all of a sudden no new cases are being registered in Europe? we were getting 5-6 new cases every day and then it all stopped. I hope things are not been kept from the public to avoid unnecessary worries. I'd rather know

Data suggests that 30% of cases are asymptomatic(mo symptoms). I doubt all mild cases require hospital treatment either so that another 10% that are likely to be undetected.

China's numbers could be near 120,000-150,000 . Id say its likely to be higher

ardinn

Seen a tweet about hidden cases is galway - someones wife is a nurse dealing with it - this guy left a voicemail for a reporter explaning it - not a shred of proof either way but you would have to wonder.

hmmm

ardinn wrote: »

Seen a tweet about hidden cases is galway - someones wife is a nurse dealing with it - this guy left a voicemail for a reporter explaning it - not a shred of proof either way but you would have to wonder.

You don't you know, and it's not helpful to spread rumours like this. It's a small country, the whole place would know about it in about a minute.

hmmm

tromtipp wrote: »

Don't underestimate people's preparedness and ability to act sensibly if they're convinced of a threat and advised on their response.

We have some very good people in government, and more than that we have a relatively cohesive country - it's not like China with thousands of strangers packed into huge apartment buildings.

Everyone knows everyone - that's a bad thing usually , but in this scenario it's a good one. When we get a case (which I'm sure we will), we have a better chance of locating most of the people who may have been affected.

I hope no matter what happens we stick together as a community, and look after our older people and those who have weakened immune systems. They're the ones most at risk and shouldn't be exposed, and for the rest of us it'll usually be a mild flu.

saabsaab

Saw the RTE report on the six one news. Gave the fatalities figure as .1% flu to 2.3% Covid. Went on to say that those over 80 most at risk. True but left an impression that under 80's ok. The death rate increases rapidly over 60!

wakka12

Mic 1972 wrote: »

isn't it strange how all of a sudden no new cases are being registered in Europe? we were getting 5-6 new cases every day and then it all stopped. I hope things are not been kept from the public to avoid unnecessary worries. I'd rather know

Well they were cropping up in known clusters, hardly any random ones with no known links like they are getting in Japan and Singapore. So i dont think its too suspicious

odyssey06

hmmm wrote: »

We have some very good people in government, and more than that we have a relatively cohesive country - it's not like China with thousands of strangers packed into huge apartment buildings.

Everyone knows everyone - that's a bad thing usually , but in this scenario it's a good one. When we get a case (which I'm sure we will), we have a better chance of locating most of the people who may have been affected.

I hope no matter what happens we stick together as a community, and look after our older people and those who have weakened immune systems. They're the ones most at risk and shouldn't be exposed, and for the rest of us it'll usually be a mild flu.

What you are saying might apply to most of the country but I would say not for the Dublin City centre... it has large apartment complexs and it would be impossible to track people from a DART or LUAS carriage who shared a rush hour journey with someone infected.

saabsaab

ardinn wrote: »

Seen a tweet about hidden cases is galway - someones wife is a nurse dealing with it - this guy left a voicemail for a reporter explaning it - not a shred of proof either way but you would have to wonder.

I also heard that rumour about a week ago. Hopefully that's all it is. I don't think that something like that could be kept under wraps for very long.



Then again look at Hep C and the cover up.

BanditLuke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

isn't it strange how all of a sudden no new cases are being registered in Europe? we were getting 5-6 new cases every day and then it all stopped. I hope things are not been kept from the public to avoid unnecessary worries. I'd rather know

Yeap it is strange.

cnocbui

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

So likely that the internal cabin passengers are mingling.

It's the crew who have been mingling, and there have been many cases of infected crew. They also prepare meals and deliver them to the cabins.

Associate Professor Ian Mackay has dismissed a theory that the disease might be spreading through the ship's ventilation system.

"Even if it was airborne, the virus particles travelling through convoluted air ducting into other rooms, it can happen, but I think it would be a minor route of transmission," he said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-14/why-do-coronavirus-cases-keep-rising-on-diamond-princess/11961166

Ficheall

hmmm wrote: »

You don't you know, and it's not helpful to spread rumours like this. It's a small country, the whole place would know about it in about a minute.

It could be helpful for those of us who want to take precautions when it gets here..

1641

[QUOTE=Mic 1972;112578710 I hope things are not been kept from the public to avoid unnecessary worries. [/QUOTE]


Yeap - I'm really worried about that!

cnocbui

Beijing: As a mysterious new virus enveloped central China's Wuhan early this year, Liu Zhiming mobilised all the resources of his hospital in the city's Wuchang district to deal with the thousands of sick people arriving daily, threatening to overwhelm the local health care system.
Liu Zhiming, the director of Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan.

Liu Zhiming, the director of Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan.

That dedication appears to have cost him his life, with Wuhan's health bureau announcing on Tuesday that he became infected and died despite "all-out" attempts to save him.

Liu is at least the seventh health worker to die of the COVID-19 disease among the more than 1700 doctors and nurses who have become sick. His death comes as authorities are cautiously cheering a reduction in the number of new daily cases and deaths, along with the results of a study showing most people who contracted the virus experienced only mild symptoms.

China on Tuesday reported 1886 new cases and 98 more deaths. That raised the number of deaths in mainland China to 1868 and the total number of confirmed cases to 72,436.

Japan, meanwhile, announced that 88 more cases of the virus were confirmed aboard a quarantined cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, bringing the total to 542 among the 3700 initially on board.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/coronavirus-claims-wuhan-hospital-director-japan-reports-more-cases-20200219-p54249.html

Good thing we have a health system that could cope, might be a worry otherwise.

ardinn

ardinn wrote: »

Seen a tweet about hidden cases is galway - someones wife is a nurse dealing with it - this guy left a voicemail for a reporter explaning it - not a shred of proof either way but you would have to wonder.

You're the same clown who was posting the most obviously fake bullshlt before from China and even saying you didn't really believe it "but just imagine". And now you're doing the exact same thing.

There is absolutely no need to "to wonder". It is not a requirement. It's actually a bizarre thing for one to do, but you obviously enjoy it.

ceadaoin.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You're the same clown who was posting the most obviously fake bullshlt before from China and even saying you didn't really believe it "but just imagine". And now you're doing the exact same thing.

There is absolutely no need to "to wonder". It is not a requirement. It's actually a bizarre thing for one to do, but you obviously enjoy it.

Yeah, all I'm wondering about is what is wrong with people who spread fake news and just straight up make **** up (not saying it's that poster, but whoever originally thought they'd have a laugh and do it).

hmmm

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Yeah, all I'm wondering about is what is wrong with people who spread fake news and just straight up make **** up (not saying it's that poster, but whoever originally thought they'd have a laugh and do it).

Attention seeking, and a desperate need to appear smarter/more informed than the "sheeple".

It's not helpful, and it scares people who are genuinely anxious.

fritzelly

Some of the propaganda techniques of the CCP - not the happy happy nurses video doing the rounds a few days ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6rqzLi1p8Q

Martina1991

Drumpot wrote:

With regards to the testing of this illness, does anybody have any definitive evidence of how accurate these testing procedures are in Ireland ? You see different stats thrown about in terms of how much we know how to tell the difference between this virus and others. What about people who have shown no symptoms, have they been tested ? How would we know who to test ?

Testing for the Coronavirus is performed in the National Virus Reference Lab in Dublin.

All samples receive a seasonal respiratory virus panel and a SARS-CoV-2 specific RT-PCR.
This is a technique where the DNA specific to the virus is isolated, amplified and then detected. PCR techniques are usually highly accurate.

I don't know what techniques are being used in China or in other countries. Using different techniques or even manufacturers can result in different levels of sensitivity and specificity between assays.

The quality of the sample is key.

Specimens may be sputum (phlegm) or swabs from the nose or throat.
Sputum samples would usually be a better quality specimen as it comes from deep within the respiratory tract and will likely bring up a lot of viral particles with it.

Swabs from the nose or throat may not be of very good quality for testing. The viral load from a swab may be very low.
Therefore, may not be detected at a sufficient level to produce a positive result.

Some that have CV are not displaying symptoms, or may have very mild symptoms. If you're not sneezing or have a cough, then you may not be shedding enough of the virus in your nose or throat to be detected.

That's why patients are having repeated tests. Over time the virus is replicating, symptoms develop, and they're shedding enough of the virus to be detected.

No test is 100% accurate. There will always be limits to sensitivity and specificity. That's why diagnosis is made by a combination of symptoms, scans and diagnostic tests.

gozunda

If there was ever a reason I'd come up with not to take a cruise - the current unfolding situation is probably one of them tbh.

A researcher who " studied norovirus outbreaks on cruises extensively and came to a striking finding...: The researchers looked at norovirus outbreaks over time and found that whenever a new, fast-spreading variant was emerging, it was often accompanied by a big wave of outbreaks on cruise ships. In other words, what happened aboard was a signal that there was a larger outbreak on the ground. “For a virus that likes to spread in groups of people, cruise ships are notorious,” 

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21132732/coronavirus-cruise-ship-quarantine-japan

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/18/21142009/coronavirus-covid19-china-wuhan-deaths-pandemic

Now, here’s a big caveat: The R0 is not “something that is fixed,” said Marion Koopmans, who studies emerging infectious diseases and heads the department of virology at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands...

That’s because diseases behave differently in different environments, depending on factors like population density and susceptibility to a disease in a population. For example, in the case of norovirus — that nasty and highly contagious bug infamous for causing outbreaks of stomach flu on cruise ships— the R0 estimates vary depending on whether the outbreak is contained in one place (like a hospital) or spread more widely.

Some individuals are also more contagious — and have a higher R0 — than others, because of their viral load, for example, or the airflow in the building where they’re sick.

If one narrows the estimates to some of the world’s top epidemiological modeling labs — like Maia Majumder’s at Boston Children’s Hospital or Christian Althaus’s at the University of Bern or Jon Read’s at Lancaster or China CDC’s — the range looks a little broader: 2 to 3.11. That would make the new coronavirus more contagious than seasonal flu and potentially even more contagious than SARS.

...

laurah591

Back to work we go

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229854204568776707

This province recorded a total of 630 cases i think (i hope there reported numbers are accurate)

China's economy must be under significant strain at this point. I wonder how long it will take to see serious impacts on global supply chains etc. How European auto manufacturers doing... did any one see?

Meanwhile Russia is imposing a temporary ban on all chinese passports entering the country - seems an odd move now if this virus is coming under control

ZX7R

An interesting point was made in conversation today with a colleague who's partner is Chinese, about the high number of male's been diagnosed, besides a lot are smoking, most male's are the only ones earning a wage in a house hold, so are less likely to go to a doctor if sick and continue to work.
Could be a external factor not taken into account.

igCorcaigh

The cfr seems to be very variable too.
The 2.3 figure we see is averaged over all of China, the cfr is higher inside the Hubei province and a good deal lower outside.

Take comfort in that maybe, although I wonder if it's an indication of how cfr can go up when health systems are overloaded?

ZX7R

laurah591 wrote: »

Back to work we go

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229854204568776707

This province recorded a total of 630 cases i think (i hope there reported numbers are accurate)

China's economy must be under significant strain at this point. I wonder how long it will take to see serious impacts on global supply chains etc. How European auto manufacturers doing... did any one see?

Meanwhile Russia is imposing a temporary ban on all chinese passports entering the country - seems an odd move now if this virus is coming under control

I'm more surprised Russia have not done it sooner an easy gateway through Russia into Europe.

skepticalme

The diamond princess lack of infection contol . https://youtu.be/vtHYZkLuKcI

hmmm

Chloroquine seems to be giving good results in patients
https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6031723/86-jaar-oud-malariamiddel-werkt-tegen-door-coronavirus-veroorzaakte-ziekte.html

There's something like 80 trials ongoing at the moment.

wadacrack

ZX7R wrote: »

An interesting point was made in conversation today with a colleague who's partner is Chinese, about the high number of male's been diagnosed, besides a lot are smoking, most male's are the only ones earning a wage in a house hold, so are less likely to go to a doctor if sick and continue to work.
Could be a external factor not taken into account.

Most cases are mild, if this is the case Males are more likely to not seek medical help and not be diagnosed. Which would lead to a lower rate

Ten of Swords

ardinn wrote: »

Seen a tweet about hidden cases is galway - someones wife is a nurse dealing with it - this guy left a voicemail for a reporter explaning it - not a shred of proof either way but you would have to wonder.

Leave out the unverified whataboutery