new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Nijmegen

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's wrong with wearing a mask?

Nothing wrong with wearing a mask. It's unusual and not culturally normal here, though, and starting to see people wearing them when you didn't see them wearing them before during a well publicised outbreak like this is likely to spread a feeling among people that might escalate. It's funny how crowds move slowly and then suddenly and all at once in a panic.

4068ac1elhodqr

Oranage2 wrote: »

Perhaps in Ireland sure but face masks around the world are to stop the user breathing in pollution, secondly for defense against illnesses.

It offers (some) protection from both and to prevent spread from user to others. However everything is dependent on the mircon size of the particular particulates you want to prevent.

e.g. Larger carbon pollutants may be blocked, but human coronaviruses measure between 0.1 and 0.2 microns, a typical N95 may be good up to 0.5micron. Still no harm in wearing one (perhaps two) anyway.

B.A._Baracus

Oranage2 wrote: »

Perhaps in Ireland sure but face masks around the world are to stop the user breathing in pollution, secondly for defense against illnesses.

Nah wasnt talking about Ireland. But Asia
I've heard that it depends on the person tho. Some wear it to stop others getting their cold and others cause of the smog (as you say)

Probably does nothing in any case of its use. Only a thin little thing.

auspicious

Quarantined citizens bolstering morale

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EBUa3WkStFg

Hector Savage

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

B.A._Baracus

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Nah wasnt talking about Ireland. But Asia
I've heard that it depends on the person tho. Some wear it to stop others getting their cold and others cause of the smog (as you say)

Probably does nothing in any case of its use. Only a thin little thing.

I wear masks if I'm sick in work, or I wear them on the motorbike if the air pollution is bad, it's dusty and I want my face clean, or if it's cold. Women often wear masks to avoid getting any tan. And some people wear them to cover acne or something.

Does the virus literally just fly around on its own and that's why people say it's too small for the masks? I always thought the virus would be held in water or phlegm or something. I definitely think masks would help since I would imagine air is smaller again than the virus, and if wearing a mask on the bike stops the air from making my face as cold, it must be at least slowing it down a lot.

saabsaab

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Why?

Really?


To stop infected people coming here from affected areas.

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

I wear masks if I'm sick in work, or I wear them on the motorbike if the air pollution is bad, it's dusty and I want my face clean, or if it's cold. Women often wear masks to avoid getting any tan. And some people wear them to cover acne or something.

Does the virus literally just fly around on its own and that's why people say it's too small for the masks? I always thought the virus would be held in water or phlegm or something. I definitely think masks would help since I would imagine air is smaller again than the virus, and if wearing a mask on the bike stops the air from making my face as cold, it must be at least slowing it down a lot.

The size of the virus is smaller than the holes in most masks people wear to stop pollution etc, surgical masks are looking to be the most effective, so yes it can just float through some masks if you come across it. Also its just as likely you will be infected via your eyes as it is your mouth, in fact you can just as easily catch the normal flu via your eyes as your mouth due to how many times a day we touch our faces.


Some virus's like MERS have to be transmitted via direct touch or can only live in water etc but this virus apparently can be transmitted via air, not that it will likely fly miles etc but in the vicinity of infectious people it will likely be present in the air and you could get infected.

wakka12

The first victim of the virus has died outside China. A thai woman living in India

wakka12

Several regions of Russia close their border to China
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-russia-border/russia-ramps-up-controls-shuts-china-border-crossings-over-virus-fears-idUSKBN1ZR0TU?il=0&utm_source=reddit.com

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/28/wuhan-evacuation-us-and-japan-to-fly-out-citizens-as-coronavirus-deaths-rise
Almost 1 in 4 coronavirus patients in China in a serious or critical condition
Now 4500 cases

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/who-chief-says-confident-in-chinas-ability-to-contain-virus-urges-calm-idUSKBN1ZR0CF?utm_source=reddit.com
WHO think China have controlled the virus

4068ac1elhodqr

As of yesterday, a large increase 1.77(24hrs) was shown in (official) figures about 2.7k to 4.8k.
Factor in any unconfirmed cases, or registrations of cause being 'other' than '19-nCov.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I wear masks if I'm sick in work, or I wear them on the motorbike if the air pollution is bad, it's dusty and I want my face clean, or if it's cold. Women often wear masks to avoid getting any tan. And some people wear them to cover acne or something.

Does the virus literally just fly around on its own and that's why people say it's too small for the masks? I always thought the virus would be held in water or phlegm or something. I definitely think masks would help since I would imagine air is smaller again than the virus, and if wearing a mask on the bike stops the air from making my face as cold, it must be at least slowing it down a lot.

Don't go to work if you're sick.

Call Me Jimmy

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO think China have controlled the virus

That's interesting, as the new cases in a multiple places outside hubei are going up 40 -50% daily as well (even though they are obviously still in early stage)

creditcarder

Yurt! wrote: »

At current projections cases in major cities are thought to peak around mid-May, so it appears this has a while to run yet. If the Chinese gov. limits mobility further to control the spread, it could tip the economy into recession or at least what feels like recession to most Chinese.

No good options in front of the Chinese gov at the moment

Hmmmm, I might give up my asia trip for longer tbh. I am not worried about dying from it, but you never know. Kind of sucks tbh.

timmyntc

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

That's interesting, as the new cases in a multiple places outside hubei are going up 40 -50% daily as well (even though they are obviously still in early stage)

Those are likely infections from up to 2 weeks ago, only now being detected/reported.
The virus is said to have an incubation period of up to ~10 days, during which time you are symptomless.

Many people who left Wuhan before the travel restrictions came in place could have been infected already - only now in the next week or so will we start to get the full picture regarding the spread of the virus.

Ficheall

Waiting to fly from small airport in Poland to UK. Definitely a couple of masks around, and not all Asians.

Call Me Jimmy

timmyntc wrote: »

Those are likely infections from up to 2 weeks ago, only now being detected/reported.
The virus is said to have an incubation period of up to ~10 days, during which time you are symptomless.

Many people who left Wuhan before the travel restrictions came in place could have been infected already - only now in the next week or so will we start to get the full picture regarding the spread of the virus.

aye I meant new confirmed cases, I know these don't reflect how it is truly 'spreading' just yet, but its all to go on at the moment. i.e what is the WHO looking at outside of official numbers that show its likely under control.

auspicious

5 million people reportedly left Wuhan before the quarantine restrictions were enforced.

Call Me Jimmy

Wondering how many days can you keep the millions still there on lockdown? I'm really curious are the people being told even the official numbers. If the government tells them then they could cause panic very soon, if they don't and say it's grand then people will start wondering why their city is still shut down.

JP Liz V1

Was there a case of this in NI or ROI?

VinLieger

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Was there a case of this in NI or ROI?

The Belfast case came back negative and so far all tests i think around 70-80 in the UK have also been negative

Idjit

Flying into Thailand next week to begin several months of travelling around SE Asia. I was originally planning on visiting China and Korea too but they are off the itinerary until more information emerges about this.

Anyone currently in Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, or Cambodia got any insider scoop on the situation there? It's hard trying to find honest news about it as I think they don't want to scare away tourists.

iCareNotOneJot

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/coronavirus-vs-sars-health-experts-on-the-key-differences.html

"if 1 million people become infected by the coronavirus — “which is not impossible” — a 1% or 2% mortality rate would translate as 10,000 or 20,000 deaths"

wakka12

Hong Kong has also now closed it's chinese border, Kazakhstan has suspended visa free entry to the country for Chinese citizens

A family of five infected in Thailand
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1845509/six-more-chinese-tourists-found-infected-with-coronavirus

Second case in germany , a coworker of the first case in the same company

Reckless Abandonment

Jade182 wrote: »

Flying into Thailand next week to begin several months of travelling around SE Asia. I was originally planning on visiting China and Korea too but they are off the itinerary until more information emerges about this.

Anyone currently in Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, or Cambodia got any insider scoop on the situation there? It's hard trying to find honest news about it as I think they don't want to scare away tourists.

Just back from Thailand and Cambodia. Usual mask stuff in thai citys and airports. But everyone going about their business as normal. Cambodia , they are way to chilled out to even care.

VinLieger

wakka12 wrote: »

Hong Kong has also now closed it's chinese border

A family of five infected in Thailand
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1845509/six-more-chinese-tourists-found-infected-with-coronavirus

Second case in germany , a coworker of the first case in the same company

Whats worrying is the first German case was infected via someone visiting from China on Jan 21st who then only reported started feeling unwell on the flight home on Jan 23rd.

iCareNotOneJot

iCareNotOneJot wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/coronavirus-vs-sars-health-experts-on-the-key-differences.html

"if 1 million people become infected by the coronavirus — “which is not impossible” — a 1% or 2% mortality rate would translate as 10,000 or 20,000 deaths"

The deaths atm are a low percentage of those currently infected because the deaths lag infections , obviously since it's not instant death, if we knew average time to death from infection we could estimate a fatality rate.

The really bad thing is.... count the number of cured versus deaths. If that's the death rate .........

The death rate will likely jump because the numbers in critical condition is about 1 in 5. Manageable in current conditions but not when tens of thousands are infected. This is because they require , according to Harvard, 'aggressive care' i.e keeping people alive is intensive work physically and requires manpower. Lungs fill with crap they're stopping people from drowning etc. Could be why nurses are collapsing... working too long too hard etc. It's also why China is throwing so much manpower at it.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-new-coronavirus-what-we-do-and-dont-know-2020012518747

fritzelly

With the current numbers in critical condition and the hundreds in serious condition that death toll is likely to see a big jump very soon
Any guesses how many are not even reporting to an hospital?

GooglePlus

Is it true that rising average temps over the year can contribute to virus outbreaks like this?

I've heard that dormant viruses can become active when given the right environment and that more hot summers like we've been seeing around the world lately, may result in an increase in cases like this.

4068ac1elhodqr

iCareNotOneJot wrote: »

"if 1 million people become infected by the coronavirus — “which is not impossible” — a 1% or 2% mortality rate would translate as 10,000 or 20,000 deaths"

Even based on a daily rate of x1.7, it will reach 6.3m in two weeks.

The only plus so far is the closing of borders and travel. Even a 240seat private chartered US repatriation flight (from the region) will have passengers held in Anchorage for 72hrs min, before allowed into the mainland.

4068ac1elhodqr

GooglePlus wrote: »

Is it true that rising average temps over the year can contribute to virus outbreaks like this?
I've heard that dormant viruses can become active when given the right environment and that more hot summers like we've been seeing around the world lately, may result in an increase in cases like this.

A 'wet' open air market in a massive city will do it (rats, snakes, dogs and even wolves).

There was some specualtion about doormant viruses at the bottom of icebergs, but likely the same risk as the current solar min, which may allow foreign bacteria to land, without dna damage upon earth (i.e. both unlikely).

Hector Savage

So whats the story about the case in Germany where the person has had no contact with anyone in Wujan ?

Duke of Url

fritzelly wrote: »

With the current numbers in critical condition and the hundreds in serious condition that death toll is likely to see a big jump very soon
Any guesses how many are not even reporting to an hospital?

That would be impossible to say during a lockdown I would think.

There could be 100,000 in apartments who see not need of go to the hospital due to minimal Symptoms.

Hence none of these people will be on the confirmed list.

For all anyone knows, There could be dead 100s of dead people who lived alone in apartments that may not be discovered for weeks yet

4068ac1elhodqr

Hector Savage wrote: »

So whats the story about the case in Germany where the person has had no contact with anyone in Wujan ?

His workmate was fresh off a Wuhan plane (so direct human transmission).

pc7

Japan reports a #2019nCoV case in a man who had not traveled to China, though he drove a tour bus for tourists from #Wuhan earlier this month.
This virus seems to be very adept at spreading.

From Helen Branswell on Twitter (don’t know how to link on phone)

Supercell

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

His workmate was fresh off a Wuhan plane (so direct human transmission).

Actually the workmate was from Shanghai, not Wuhan, over 800 km away. An important and concerning distinction.

mikhail

Jade182 wrote: »

Flying into Thailand next week to begin several months of travelling around SE Asia. I was originally planning on visiting China and Korea too but they are off the itinerary until more information emerges about this.

Anyone currently in Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, or Cambodia got any insider scoop on the situation there? It's hard trying to find honest news about it as I think they don't want to scare away tourists.

One case in Cambodia, one in South Korea. I think you can probably consider everywhere outside of China to be fairly low risk.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Duke of Url

Supercell wrote: »

Actually the workmate was from Shanghai, not Wuhan, over 800 km away. An important and concerning distinction.

This was Yesterdays update

Shanghai reported another 13 new coronavirus cases on Monday, pushing the total to 66, said the Shanghai Health Commission on Tuesday morning.

Of the 66 cases, 35 are males and 31 females. They range from 7 to 88 years old.

GooglePlus

mikhail wrote: »

One case in Cambodia, one in South Korea. I think you can probably consider everywhere outside of China to be fairly low risk.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I had a look at that site last night.

Where is the data coming from, as it's only as good as the source.

VinLieger

Supercell wrote: »

Actually the workmate was from Shanghai, not Wuhan, over 800 km away. An important and concerning distinction.

The company is a car parts manufacturer with offices in Wuhan which explains it, likely she had recently been to wuhan prior to flying to germany or someone had visited shangai from wuhan before she flew to germany.

Supercell

Be that as it may, what are the odds that she was one of 31 reported female cases there?( Out of a population of 24 million) my point being this is now far from a Wuhan primary issue. The numbers we officially have are almost certainly grossly undereporting the actual situation.

VinLieger

Supercell wrote: »

Be that as it may, what are the odds that she was one of 31 reported female cases there?( Out of a population of 24 million) my point being this is now far from a Wuhan primary issue. The numbers we officially have are almost certainly grossly undereporting the actual situation.

Ohh I agree China are still fudging the infected numbers but who knows by how much, the real fear i have is they are fudging the death numbers and misreporting wuhan virus related deaths as other things which I wouldn't put past them

theguzman

Meanwhile in the Philippines their President has ordered mass deportations of Chinese even those without any obvious signs of sickness, 4 plane loads were sent back yesterday.

the.red.baron

Deleted User wrote: »

I wear masks if I'm sick in work, or I wear them on the motorbike if the air pollution is bad, it's dusty and I want my face clean, or if it's cold. Women often wear masks to avoid getting any tan. And some people wear them to cover acne or something.

Does the virus literally just fly around on its own and that's why people say it's too small for the masks? I always thought the virus would be held in water or phlegm or something. I definitely think masks would help since I would imagine air is smaller again than the virus, and if wearing a mask on the bike stops the air from making my face as cold, it must be at least slowing it down a lot.

the masks are at their most effective when worn by someone with a respiratory infection


they might have some effect if say someone unmasked were to sneeze on you


but if they were wearing the mask instead that's where the benefit lies


its the uncontrolled sneezing, infected hands touching things, you touching things

igCorcaigh

Three locally acquired cases today in Japan, Germany and Taiwan. None had been to China.

Space Dog

VinLieger wrote: »

The company is a car parts manufacturer with offices in Wuhan which explains it, likely she had recently been to wuhan prior to flying to germany or someone had visited shangai from wuhan before she flew to germany.

I read that her parents from Wuhan had visited her before she flew to Germany.

dwayneshintzy

Jade182 wrote: »

Flying into Thailand next week to begin several months of travelling around SE Asia. I was originally planning on visiting China and Korea too but they are off the itinerary until more information emerges about this.

Anyone currently in Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, or Cambodia got any insider scoop on the situation there? It's hard trying to find honest news about it as I think they don't want to scare away tourists.

Not sure why you're more worried about Korea than Thailand......Thailand has the most confirmed cases of any country outside of China (14 I think?).

But, you'll be grand travelling any of those countries (apart from China) over the next couple of weeks unless things deteriorate rapidly.

Larbre34

Larbre34 wrote: »

My brother in law and his family are in Shanghai for the last 10 days, visiting local family there.

He says there is a fairly rational and pragmatic attitude in that City just now, but that if the authorities there begin to tighten up on movement and reduce information flow then he will get on a plane and come home.

I've told him that he is naive to wait for that day to come, because it could be that it is no longer his choice to leave by then and that he should book a flight out asap. Am I overdoing it with that advice?

My Bro in law got out of dodge last night, his time, on a flight for which he paid a significant premium. He's made it as far as London and plans to spend the rest of his leave there and return home as scheduled this weekend.

I told him thanks for quarantining himself!

GooglePlus

Larbre34 wrote: »

My Bro in law got out of dodge last night, his time, on a flight for which he paid a significant premium. He's made it as far as London and plans to spend the rest of his leave there and return home as scheduled this weekend.

I told him thanks for quarantining himself!

For all you know he has the virus and it hasn't shown itself yet.

Maybe hold off on any visits over the weekend.

Larbre34

GooglePlus wrote: »

For all you know he has the virus and it hasn't shown itself yet.

Maybe hold off on any visits over the weekend.

Oh I intend to. Till Easter preferably. Fortunately they don't live near us.