new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wadacrack

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Two entire families wiped out by this virus that have made the news.

Chances of that with a 2.3% fatality rate is 2 million to one.
Age maybe a factor, but this mans wife is in ICU so that would rule out genetics.

IMHO this is looking more and more like Spanish flu mortality rate which would tie in with the actual numbers this doctor suspects (actually he thinks it worse).

That said I do think they have slowed down the spread of the virus and that in itself will save many lives.

Plus the numbers in UK, 9 infected 8 recovered, 1 still sick, seem to indicate a much better recovery rate than expected. So that's hopeful.

The data is still very variable it seems. Their was also a case of one man contracting it but members of his family who he was living had no symptoms and didn't test positive for the virus. Singapore containment strategy is encouraging and the worldwide trends are ok atm but still very early in the outbreak. A strong immune system seems to be a disadvantage for the virus also, which maybe explains why Children are not badly affected

Mic 1972

Carol25 wrote: »

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/regarding-most-recent-publication-novel-coronavirus-robert/

I'd like to quote the part where Death Rate of 2% is being questioned
This is what i havea been saying all along, the death rate is much higher


"A case fatality rate (CFR, also case fatality risk, or case fatality ratio) is the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of disease severity.[1] CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections. CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR."

wadacrack

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'd like to quote the part where Death Rate of 2% is being questioned
This is what i havea been saying all along, the death rate is much higher


"A case fatality rate (CFR, also case fatality risk, or case fatality ratio) is the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of disease severity.[1] CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections. CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR."

Case Fatality Rate is different than the overall Death Rate of the Illness FYI. With a country with the population of China its just the more serious cases that are receiving medical care. Its still early to tell but the Worldwide rate is much lower at present

Mic 1972

wadacrack wrote: »

Case Fatality Rate is different than the overall Death Rate of the Illness FYI. With a country with the population of China its just the more serious cases that are receiving medical care. Its still early to tell but the Worldwide rate is much lower at present

Death Rate is the same as Fatality Rate
both are calculated as Deaths / Total closed cases (Deaths + Recovery)
There isn't any other way to calculate this, worldwide this is currently 12%

wadacrack

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Death Rate is the same as Fatality Rate
both are calculated as Deaths / Total closed cases (Deaths + Recovery)
There isn't any other way to calculate this, worldwide this is currently 12%

The Case Fatality Rate is not the same as the Overall death rate of the virus due to unreported cases, which according to data is at about 40%

volchitsa

wadacrack wrote: »

The Case Fatality Rate is not the same as the Overall death rate of the virus due to unreported cases, which according to data is at about 40%

I'm lost here: how can you have usable data about unreported cases?

fritzelly

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

If you can read simple Chinese, otherwise (en):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981
It finds that( average): 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical (older and males at more elevated % risk).

Not the same article

Translated version

wadacrack

volchitsa wrote: »

I'm lost here: how can you have usable data about unreported cases?

asymptomatic cases detected and then an estimation

fritzelly

At this point I'm thinking they're all infected

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230067596034179072

Mic 1972

wadacrack wrote: »

The Case Fatality Rate is not the same as the Overall death rate of the virus due to unreported cases, which according to data is at about 40%

CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR

Once all cases are resolved you get the final CFR, same as Death Rate.
As stated above the final CFR will be substantially higher
There is no other way to calculate a deat rate or fatality rate or whatver way you call it. Anything else is an estimate that try to mitigate the effect of counting new cases taht still have no outcome
The 2% rate doesnt account for unresolved cases at all, they account for 85% of the total infected people

Mic 1972, do your figures account for the various rates of deaths in different age groups? Or are you counting everyone unresolved to have the same rate of death regardless of age?

Show us your full calculations.

scotchy

Two cases announced in Iran.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230077385594298368

.

wakka12

Will be interesting to see if the two Iranian cases are Chinese travellers or not

volchitsa

wadacrack wrote: »

asymptomatic cases detected and then an estimation

Does this estimation take account of flu and other cases, or are they all included in it?

wadacrack

Mic 1972 wrote: »

CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR

Once all cases are resolved you get the final CFR, same as Death Rate.
As stated above the final CFR will be substantially higher
There is no other way to calculate a deat rate or fatality rate or whatver way you call it. Anything else is an estimate that try to mitigate the effect of counting new cases taht still have no outcome
The 2% rate doesnt account for unresolved cases at all, they account for 85% of the total infected people

That's not the point I was making. The models from China are going to have to take into account a very high degree of variance. Unreported cases and the start of an out break being the two main reason. The overall death rate of the virus will not be as high as the Case Fatality rate at present.

China's lack of transparency has made it much more difficult than needed to learn more about the condition.

scotchy

scotchy wrote: »

Two cases announced in Iran.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230077385594298368

.

Was looking at the refugee camps in Turkey and Syria on the news the other night, If cases start popping up there? Can only imagine the consequences.

Drumpot

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/02/17/man-quarantined-ship-coronavirus-full-episode-acfc-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/acfc-full-episodes/

Interesting interview from an American who chose to stay on the ship instead of being flown home by his government.

Basically he didn’t fully believe what he was being told by the US government (that there wouldn’t be people with virus being transferred) and he was right. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t ever trust authorities but the result of this is that either the US government lied or they tested everybody and there was a lot of false negatives. I don’t know which would be more concerning.

wakka12

Huge increase in the number of critical and serious cases in China, it was 9 thousands and something yesterday, 12,000 now

RebelButtMunch

The numbers in China still are not right I think. They jumped massively when they changed the diagnosis method, but then continued along the same trajectory afterwards.

fritzelly

scotchy wrote: »

Was looking at the refugee camps in Turkey and Syria on the news the other night, If cases start popping up there? Can only imagine the consequences.

Would be lethal,cannot see them being rushed to,hospital

igCorcaigh

wakka12 wrote: »

Huge increase in the number of critical and serious cases in China, it was 9 thousands and something yesterday, 12,000 now

21% now, has been rising again after going down to 14% I think?

Ficheall

So there are two people who came back to Ireland at the weekend from one of the infected cruise ships and have undergone no quarantine?

gozunda

wakka12 wrote: »

Huge increase in the number of critical and serious cases in China, it was 9 thousands and something yesterday, 12,000 now

What source for the figures are you accessing if you dont mind me asking?

Drumpot

Ficheall wrote: »

So there are two people who came back to Ireland at the weekend from one of the infected cruise ships and have undergone no quarantine?

This is again an issue I have with communication. I don’t mind people coming back to Ireland and being allowed to self quarantine or whatever it is that authorities decide to do, once there is a way to confirm the logic behind it.

Now they might say “you don’t need to know everything and we don’t think it’s important for the general public to have this information”. But in a age of social media and massive forums for people to discuss these things, what you are doing is allowing somebody else to fill the communication void. You can’t complain when you get people scaremongering and coming up with all sorts of theories if you refuse to provide information on the decisions being made.

I still don’t get it. Communication and the narrative of what’s being done can be controlled to a large degree, but saying nothing creates a vacuum that will be filled. Politicians will pay a fortune to spin doctors for a reason.

Ficheall

You reckon I'm wrong then? I'd hope so, but...

Drumpot

Ficheall wrote: »

You reckon I'm wrong then? I'd hope so, but...

TBH I don’t know if you are wrong, I was more making a general statement about the poor communication thus far from Irish authorities, as opposed to responding directly to your information.

Ficheall

Drumpot wrote: »

I don’t know if you are wrong, I was more making a general statement about the poor communication thus far from Irish authorities, as opposed to responding directly to your information.

Fair enough. I would have assumed that if the two people who came back to Ireland on the weekend had been quarantined, it would have mentioned in the article something beyond "The HSE have been informed."

wakka12

gozunda wrote: »

What source for the figures are you accessing if you dont mind me asking?

BNO

wakka12

4 new cases Japan, 3 Singapore, 1 in HK

show me the money.1

Ficheall wrote: »

Fair enough. I would have assumed that if the two people who came back to Ireland on the weekend had been quarantined, it would have mentioned in the article something beyond "The HSE have been informed."

Can they be forced to be put in quarantine in Ireland?
Who says who should and shouldn't be?

Drumpot

Ficheall wrote: »

Fair enough. I would have assumed that if the two people who came back to Ireland on the weekend had been quarantined, it would have mentioned in the article something beyond "The HSE have been informed."

There seems to be a strategy of prioritizing not spreading panic and prejudice of people infected at play. But like I said, the way they are not communicating anything has left a vacuum that will be filled , so they are leaving others to fill in the gaps. You can’t just whine about an information gap that you know scaremongers and fake news will fill, certainly in an age when it’s never been easier to dupe populations and we all know it.

Most people it appears are happy to remain ignorant on the subject in a “until it gets worse I will not worry” POV, therefore it seems the authority’s feel this suits them as they don’t want to make anymore of this then they have to. Again, this is a mistake bacause they are just letting others communicate their uninformed opinions that can become “fact” to some.

dominatinMC

wakka12 wrote: »

4 new cases Japan, 3 Singapore, 1 in HK

Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

odyssey06

show me the money.1 wrote: »

Can they be forced to be put in quarantine in Ireland?
Who says who should and shouldn't be?

There's a separate thread about legal basis for forced quarantine in Ireland:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058053864

BanditLuke

I'm getting a real sense of the truth being hidden from the general population about this whole thing. It's really bizarre the supposed lack of cases outside Wuhan given how interconnected the whole planet is.

wadacrack

dominatinMC wrote: »

Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

Both countries are testing all flu like symptoms The data in these countries over the next few wees will help give us a better understanding of what we are dealing with

Drumpot

dominatinMC wrote: »

Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

Do you believe the Chinese figures on any level? I mean , they aren’t letting WHO into the region the outbreak started, why do you think that is?

Do you think they are more concerned with stopping the spread or protecting the mother land from an economic and nationality/pride perspective?

They punished people for the first few weeks for discussing the virus. Do you think it’s scaremongering to ask these questions? I feel like the whole world is being nice to China in the hope that they will eventually open up and be honest about what’s going on. In the absence of knowing for sure it’s all here say but I’m just curious if people who are optimistic about the spread of this virus presume China is now being upfront in a manner that Can be trusted.

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

Mic 1972, do your figures account for the various rates of deaths in different age groups? Or are you counting everyone unresolved to have the same rate of death regardless of age?

Show us your full calculations.

I'm using data from worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total Cases: 75,227
Open Cases: 58,291 (77% of total cases)

Closed cases: 16,936 (23% of total cases)
Recovered / Discharged: 14,924 (88%)
Deaths: 2,012 (12%)

The Death rate calculated ONLY on the closed cases is 12%, however this rate is decreasing as the number of closed cases increases, this is because it takes longer to recover than to die


The Death rate officially being communicated (2.6%) is calculated as
Deaths / Total Cases = 2,012/75,227 = 2.6%
This formula is flawed as there are 77% of total cases still without an outcome

dominatinMC

Drumpot wrote: »

Do you believe the Chinese figures on any level? I mean , they aren’t letting WHO into the region the outbreak started, why do you think that is?

Do you think they are more concerned with stopping the spread or protecting the mother land from an economic and nationality/pride perspective?

They punished people for the first few weeks for discussing the virus. Do you think it’s scaremongering to ask these questions? I feel like the whole world is being nice to China in the hope that they will eventually open up and be honest about what’s going on. In the absence of knowing for sure it’s all here say but I’m just curious if people who are optimistic about the spread of this virus presume China is now being upfront in a manner that Can be trusted.

The stats I referred to pertain to Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong. I never mentioned anything about China...

wakka12

dominatinMC wrote: »

Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

Maybe, maybe not. One woman in South Korea yesterday infected 14 people, that are known of.3 of the cases this morning were in Tokyo, theres been a good lot of new cases there in the last few days, its insanely high population density and several of the cases have no known links to existing infected. It doesnt take much of a spark to start a fire in this instance

Drumpot

dominatinMC wrote: »

The stats I referred to pertain to Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong. I never mentioned anything about China...

I was just curious on your thoughts about china.

creditcarder

New ADVChina video. I am happy they stopped talking about Corona tbh.

Excellent video imo. Maybe the most interesting I have seen in a long, long time, but there are two points to note.



1) Lads, the sky is just cloudy :P It's just the region in north vietnam and even saigon is pretty cloudy vs other parts.



2) I wonder if they voiced this video over later? It's oddly relevant to the current times.



Very very good video imo.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm using data from worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total Cases: 75,227
Open Cases: 58,291 (77% of total cases)

Closed cases: 16,936 (23% of total cases)
Recovered / Discharged: 14,924 (88%)
Deaths: 2,012 (12%)

The Death rate calculated ONLY on the closed cases is 12%, however this rate is decreasing as the number of closed cases increases, this is because it takes longer to recover than to die


The Death rate officially being communicated (2.6%) is calculated as
Deaths / Total Cases = 2,012/75,227 = 2.6%
This formula is flawed as there are 77% of total cases still without an outcome

Your analysis of the data is reading a few figures of a non-official website. Why are you not taking the remaining cases and then taking their age groups and associated death rate statistics we have so far, and then adding the percentage of cases which are never reported, to come to your figure?

Do you believe you have a more accurate figure than professional organisations, based on the data you are using and your methods?

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm using data from worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total Cases: 75,227
Open Cases: 58,291 (77% of total cases)

Closed cases: 16,936 (23% of total cases)
Recovered / Discharged: 14,924 (88%)
Deaths: 2,012 (12%)

The Death rate calculated ONLY on the closed cases is 12%, however this rate is decreasing as the number of closed cases increases, this is because it takes longer to recover than to die


The Death rate officially being communicated (2.6%) is calculated as
Deaths / Total Cases = 2,012/75,227 = 2.6%
This formula is flawed as there are 77% of total cases still without an outcome

Your whole logic and calculations are flawed and you claim to understand data for your job. They are not even roughly estimating unconfirmed cases in these figures which would drive all those death rate figures down by at least 50-75%.

The final death rate will be far below 2% but you insist on claiming it's far higher without any logic or facts to back to that up. I would say 0.5% tops.

Doctor Jimbob

BloodBath wrote: »

Your whole logic and calculations are flawed and you claim to understand data for your job. They are not even roughly estimating unconfirmed cases in these figures which would drive all those death rate figures down by at least 50-75%.

The final death rate will be far below 2% but you insist on claiming it's far higher without any logic or facts to back to that up. I would say 0.5% tops.

People are determined to make this seem as scary as possible, for whatever reason.

Snow Garden

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

People are determined to make this seem as scary as possible, for whatever reason.

The fear virus spreads very easily in the modern world.

If you want to offer your opinion, I've started a feedback thread regarding the fake stuff and manipulation of stats.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058055420

HeidiHeidi

I heard on the 1o'c news headlines something along the lines of the ship in Japan being disembarked after a 14 day quarantine period.


But there are still hundreds of cases of the virus on board, as far as I know.


Should the quarantine period not start only after the cases have been cleared/taken off/recovered? Or am I missing something?


What's the point of a quarantine if cases are still spreading?

wakka12

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

I heard on the 1o'c news headlines something along the lines of the ship in Japan being disembarked after a 14 day quarantine period.


But there are still hundreds of cases of the virus on board, as far as I know.


Should the quarantine period not start only after the cases have been cleared/taken off/recovered? Or am I missing something?


What's the point of a quarantine if cases are still spreading?

Yeh was thinking that too. Could be a good long cruise holiday for some

laurah591

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

I heard on the 1o'c news headlines something along the lines of the ship in Japan being disembarked after a 14 day quarantine period.


But there are still hundreds of cases of the virus on board, as far as I know.


Should the quarantine period not start only after the cases have been cleared/taken off/recovered? Or am I missing something?


What's the point of a quarantine if cases are still spreading?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0219/1116200-coronavirus-diamond-princess/

From reading the above - they are disembarking some and then restarting quarantine for 2 more weeks. Hope they disinfect that ship

HeidiHeidi

laurah591 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0219/1116200-coronavirus-diamond-princess/

From reading the above - they are disembarking some and then restarting quarantine for 2 more weeks. Hope they disinfect that ship

But surely disembarking some when the virus is still active and spreading within the ship is madness?



Like I say, maybe I'm missing something obvious, but this just seems nuts.


Like, the Irish pair who were flown home, they're in self-imposed isolaton - fair enough. But how did they get home? That wasn't in isolation, I'm assuming..... so what about all the people they came in contact with en route?

This isn't meant as scaremongering, btw! I'm just trying to get my head around the logic (or not) of it.