new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Duke of Url

wadacrack wrote: »

What is your point about the 2%. Do you genuinely think that is low? 1 in 50 will die so its obviously not comparable to the flu

1 in 50 people with COVID19 will die is not proven.

fritzelly

Duke of Url wrote: »

1 in 50 people with COVID19 will die is not proven.

Outside Hubei it is considerably lower - in other Chinese provinces its averaging about 1% if not lower

Drumpot

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1116379/

Good to see this start to be discussed more by people in authority.

Speaking on RTÉ's Drivetime, Dr Ronan Glynn reiterated the view of the department that he "would not be surprised if Ireland had a confirmed case of the virus."

No panic , nothing to get overly concerned about right now but if it comes here, we are prepared. Good message to start communicating. I wonder have the headlines about Irish people on infected ships pushed them to start this sort of exercise, no harm if it did.

Duke of Url

fritzelly wrote: »

Outside Hubei it is considerably lower - in other Chinese provinces its averaging about 1% if not lower

It’s still not proven. You can’t have a % death rate without knowing how many people have the virus.

They don’t know how many people would test positive in Habei because they can’t test everyone.

It’s believed that the comfirmed cases represents a tiny % of the overall number of people who would test positive if you tested the whole population of Habei.

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

actually 1 in 50 have died so far while 75% of people infected are still open cases. Do you think that out of those 75% of people (46,000) no one else is going to die?

I pointed out to your failure in logic and statistics earlier. Here it is again.

As the death rate goes up in that number so too will the infected and recovered in somewhat the same proportion. The % trend however is downwards. How much of this is down to Chinese intervention is open to debate.

It also does not take into account unconfirmed cases which some groups are estimating but it is not accounted for at all by the WHO. It's almost impossible to calculate this number but it should be at least 100% of the confirmed cases looking at similar infections.

This will increase the R0 number and lower the death rate when they can somewhat estimate it. It will never be accurate though.

wadacrack wrote: »

That has nothing to do with what I asked you. You compared a virus with a 2% death rate to the flu? Its strange as the flu is no where near that rate

As it's been pointed out to you and others several times already the flu number of 0.1% takes into account an estimate of undiagnosed infections which far exceeds the confirmed ones. The corona number is only from confirmed cases with no use of an estimate of an unconfirmed %.

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

You’re wasting your time with that poster.

I'm wasting my time with you and others here who are clueless.

Fr_Dougal

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1116379/

Good to see this start to be discussed more by people in authority.

Speaking on RTÉ's Drivetime, Dr Ronan Glynn reiterated the view of the department that he "would not be surprised if Ireland had a confirmed case of the virus."

No panic , nothing to get overly concerned about right now but if it comes here, we are prepared. Good message to start communicating. I wonder have the headlines about Irish people on infected ships pushed them to start this sort of exercise, no harm if it did.

Good article. He has also confirmed the death rate.

at the moment the fatality rate of Covid-19 is 2%."

fritzelly

Duke of Url wrote: »

It’s still not proven. You can’t have a % death rate without knowing how many people have the virus.

They don’t know how many people would test positive in Habei because they can’t test everyone.

It’s believed that the comfirmed cases represents a tiny % of the overall number of people who would test positive if you tested the whole population of Habei.

They are using the 2.x% based on the total everywhere

Remove Hubei from the equation since outside it deaths are minuscule then you get a CFR 0.7%

That is a much happier number - unless deaths suddenly ramp up everywhere else that is a more realistic figure. Forget Hubei as it is skewing the ratio's for something that is centered on itself

Charles Babbage

The more severe cases may respond to treatment, in Hubei the system is overloaded, while treatment is possible in other parts of China and in Singapore etc.

4068ac1elhodqr

No data is definate, or will ever be final, for this dynamic event.
However the best available large set of data shows for Hubei (largest region with longest duration)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

62k currently confirmed, with most in an unknown state
I..e 'status:pending' (each case may take weeks or perhaps months before final status can be assigned)

15k recovered and 2k dead
So of the 'final status' we know of, 13.333% didn't ever recover.

igCorcaigh

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The more severe cases may respond to treatment, in Hubei the system is overloaded, while treatment is possible in other parts of China and in Singapore etc.

Yes, that's what I'm thinking.

But every health system will surely get overloaded if the ratio of severe cases of around 10 to 20 pc keep up like this.

That's my concern.

igCorcaigh

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

No data is definate, or will ever be final, for this dynamic event.
However the best available large set of data shows for Hubei (largest region with longest duration)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

62k currently confirmed, with most in an unknown state
I..e 'status:pending' (each case may take weeks or perhaps months before final status can be assigned)

15k recovered and 2k dead
So of the 'final status' we know of, 13.333% didn't ever recover.

Takes time for the numbers to settle. Recovery rate will be high I'm sure.

ceadaoin.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

But no one is talking about it and its a huge coverup according to others

You just complained about a headline saying killer virus, is it not a killer virus? At least the daily mail offers a different view on the issue

SeaBreezes

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6e50645_2


WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 29 Feb 19..
WHO is working with an international network of statisticians and mathematical modelers to estimate key epidemiologic parameters of COVID19, such as the incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset), case fatality ratio (CFR, the proportion of cases that die), and the serial interval (the time between symptom onset of a primary and secondary case). Reports of current analyses that have estimated these parameters are provided in this Situation Report as a summary of currently available evidence. These values should be considered preliminary and parameters will likely be updated as more information becomes available.

Preliminary estimates of median incubation period are 5-6 days (ranging from 0-14 days) and estimates for the serial interval range from 4.4 to 7.5 days


The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.
This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die. As the outbreak continues, the confirmed CFR may change.

(They skip past the fact all they have to do, to get a better idea, is factor in the time lag to closed cases, and estimate the number of cases 3 weeks(ish) before, but everyone seems to be fudging that issue, so it must be a scary number, otherwise it would be all over every release.(IMO))

Anyway, here is it, the latest and greatest from WHO..

Edit: Comments in Twitter make me laugh/cry:

- When do we expect the findings from the team
- Apparently after half the world's population has it.

whiskeyman

Drumpot wrote: »

Speaking on RTÉ's Drivetime, Dr Ronan Glynn reiterated the view of the department that he "would not be surprised if Ireland had a confirmed case of the virus."

No panic , nothing to get overly concerned about right now but if it comes here, we are prepared. Good message to start communicating. I wonder have the headlines about Irish people on infected ships pushed them to start this sort of exercise, no harm if it did.

I just saw a clip of him on the RTE 9 news.
He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

WTF??

4068ac1elhodqr

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Takes time for the numbers to settle. Recovery rate will be high I'm sure.

Largely agree 13% is too high, if someone's going to pass, it may happen within the early weeks, rather than months. 2-5% may be more realistic.

But there is also a risk of 'demand overload' for oxygen machines, which won't help in most situations. The young may be given priority, who knows for sure, again it can depend on external contexts and resource availability.

When the Titanic went down, they only saved the good lookin wimin, a few super wealthy chaps and most of the young uns, Leonardo sank.

RebelButtMunch

whiskeyman wrote: »

I just saw a clip of his on the RTE 9 news.
He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

WTF??

Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?

givyjoe

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?

Call Joe Duffy

Duke of Url

fritzelly wrote: »

They are using the 2.x% based on the total everywhere

Remove Hubei from the equation since outside it deaths are minuscule then you get a CFR 0.7%

That is a much happier number - unless deaths suddenly ramp up everywhere else that is a more realistic figure. Forget Hubei as it is skewing the ratio's for something that is centered on itself

The death rate is only based on confirmed cases of people who tested positive by medical staff.

Analysis suggests that the confirmed cases only represent around 5 - 10% of the real number of people who have contracted COVID19 but have not been tested.

This would drop the actual death rate to 0.3% or lower

whiskeyman

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?

Call a local GP or medical center / local HSE clinic etc...

Calling 999 for flu symptoms seems rather excessive, no?
So much for easing sense of panic.

4068ac1elhodqr

Anyway see the African locust plage is spreading, even reaching Pakistan and closing on China (aka 'Sin' in the old bible books).
The 'occult' Moon (whereby it eclipses Mars) has also just occurred today Feb 19th.

And with that, chin up, and (cough cough) good (*cough*) luck, ,folks.

fritzelly

SeaBreezes wrote: »

The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.

The bolded part is important - that high CFR only exists within China

Call Me Jimmy

SeaBreezes wrote: »

(They skip past the fact all they have to do, to get a better idea, is factor in the time lag to closed cases, and estimate the number of cases 3 weeks(ish) before, but everyone seems to be fudging that issue, so it must be a scary number, otherwise it would be all over every release.(IMO))

Anyway, here is it, the latest and greatest from WHO..

That has confused me no end, why no time lag for death (or any reasonable lag) is used. If you add all the new confirmed cases on a specific day, the deaths are still only reflective of the confirmed cases x days ago because doing it against today's deaths implies people could die instantaneously? I must be misunderstanding.

fritzelly

Duke of Url wrote: »

The death rate is only based on confirmed cases of people who tested positive by medical staff.

Analysis suggests that the confirmed cases only represent around 5 - 10% of the real number of people who have contracted COVID19 but have not been tested.

This would drop the actual death rate to 0.3% or lower

You could say there are deaths happening that are not recorded as covid related as well (they are not going to waste resources on it) - so swings and roundabouts. I'm sure the real CFR outside Hubei will continue to drop

branie2

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Anyway see the African locust plage is spreading, even reaching Pakistan and closing on China (aka 'Sin' in the old bible books).
The 'occult' Moon (whereby it eclipses Mars) has also just occurred today Feb 19th.

And with that, chin up, and (cough cough) good (*cough*) luck, ,folks.

I hope we don't get that either!

fritzelly

whiskeyman wrote: »

I just saw a clip of him on the RTE 9 news.
He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

WTF??

So everyone with a cough or a sniffle calls the emergency line, jaysus
Should only be calling if you are dying

Duke of Url

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

No data is definate, or will ever be final, for this dynamic event.
However the best available large set of data shows for Hubei (largest region with longest duration)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

62k currently confirmed, with most in an unknown state
I..e 'status:pending' (each case may take weeks or perhaps months before final status can be assigned)

15k recovered and 2k dead
So of the 'final status' we know of, 13.333% didn't ever recover.

Eh what?

wakka12

Eight more people on Diamon Princess become serious condition, total 28

wakka12

It is unlikely the number of cases in Hubei is hugely overestimated as some suggest. Government are sweeping the province for undetected coronavirus cases by tracking and investigating purchases of fever and cough medicine currently

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hubei-searches-cases-through-medicine-purchases-report-2020-2?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T

fritzelly

108 new deaths

Total confirmed cases 62,013

Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

SeaBreezes

wakka12 wrote: »

Eight more people on Diamon Princess become serious condition, total 28

21% infection rate with another 79 confirmed cases.
With tests of accuracy of 30-50% ... many of them will walk who already have it.

ceadaoin.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You just complained about a headline saying killer virus, is it not a killer virus? At least the daily mail offers a different view on the issue

I didnt complain about it. I was pointing out that its complete bull**** that the virus isnt being reported on or is being downplayed by msm (as being claimed by some posters), and using the daily mail as an example.

MD1990

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230260100822175745

great decline in new cases

wakka12

https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21

Call Me Jimmy

fritzelly wrote: »

108 new deaths

Total confirmed cases 62,013

Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

Seems like they're getting a handle on things in Hubei and Wuhan.

Yesterday in Wuhan 1,600 new cases, today 615.

And today in Hubei outside Wuhan, 13.

igCorcaigh

Thankfully all the seeds seem to be contained across the wider globe.

Asian countries will bring new cases, as to be expected.

This will go everywhere, but the more we can slow it down the better.

wakka12

Not to sound too cynical but it actually seems impossible to believe that neighbouring countries of China today counted far more new cases than all of China outside Wuhan

laurah591

fritzelly wrote: »

108 new deaths

Total confirmed cases 62,013

Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

349 new cases.... big drop off in new cases reported today. Edit so I see China have changed reporting format again and have reverted to test diagnosis again and netted off some cases ..... another monkey covers eye moment

Meanwhile outside of the ship and China; the rest of world reported 39 new cases and 3 deaths (albeit all 3 were elderly with pre existing). Regular cases cropping up in Japan and Singapore might be raising flags - looks like both countries will hit 100 cases in the next few days

Meanwhile Iran is going into major containment phase with all schools and universities closed tomorrow followed today's developments.

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21

What isn't Iran telling us? They currently have a 100% death rate!

Fr_Dougal

It would be helpful if they released the daily numbers of tests carried out.

Beasty

OK, time to step in with some mod instructions:

1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
3. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

In terms of thread content:

4. Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
5. Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
6. Terms such as "sinus", "airborne", "aerosol" have little relevance at this time in this jurisdiction. Ultimately though if cases are discovered in Ireland please pay attention to the relevant authorities and what they advise/recommend, and not some randomer(s) on the internet

All the above is me talking as a complete layman on the subject. Like everything in this thread do not treat it as chapter and verse, beyond paying attention to items 1-3 above

Any questions please PM me - do not try and dissect this post in-thread

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21

lol I didn't want to post that link for fear of being accused of spreading fake news ... monkey covers eyes

wakka12

laurah591 wrote: »

lol I didn't want to post that link for fear of being accused of spreading fake news ... monkey covers eyes

Haha! Yeh..the signpost auto detected to Persian and there is clearly a very large military presence so it could be real, and with two deaths it would not be surprising a government implemented these measures considering how other countries have reacted, but yeh still big grain of salt for this one

fritzelly

OK who farted?

cnocbui

Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
Instead of creating immunity the virus can reportedly reinfect an individual and hasten fatal heart attack

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

This virus just doesn't do good news.

wakka12

Apparently Taiwanese news is notoriously unreliable, that seems like big news, but I havnt heard anything about that before.

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

Apparently Taiwanese news is notoriously unreliable, that seems like big news, but I havnt heard anything about that before.

Not so much unreliable but their ahem history leads to certain rhetoric

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

Apparently Taiwanese news is notoriously unreliable, that seems like big news, but I havnt heard anything about that before.

Curious how Taiwan culture differs from the country China's culture? Is it more democratic or more authoritarian?



Christ, that news could be scary, but I am taking everything with a grain of salt.

cloudatlas

Watching a live stream there, the commentators saying the hospitals that were thrown up in a few days were a p.r exercise primarily, bad design, infrastructure problems, people in large rooms together cross infecting.

That story is five days old and I haven't heard anything about it since. Hopefully that's a good sign it's unfounded.

As for the tweet re: Qom quarantine.. I see someone in the comments saying it's bull because the signs aren't in Chinese!

bodhrandude

Has the OP LaFuton posted recently, I haven't seen him around.