new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12

creditcarder wrote: »

Curious how Taiwan culture differs from the country China's culture? Is it more democratic or more authoritarian?



Christ, that news could be scary, but I am taking everything with a grain of salt.

Not sure really, but I just heard a lot of people on reddit from Taiwan saying that the media make up stories, not stretch the truth or sensationalise like Irish tabloids but completely fabricate stories

AdamB

givyjoe wrote: »

Call Joe Duffy

That set off the Joe Duffy jingle in my head....

BanditLuke

givyjoe wrote: »

Call Joe Duffy

On a serious note can you imagine the amount of pure misery that Joe would ring out of any Covid19 outbreak here on a large scale

SeaBreezes

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

This virus just doesn't do good news.

I know! I was thinking just get it over with and roll the dice and be one of the first into ICU if needed then I read that. No immunity? Fe*k.
And re-infection? Double Fe*k.

givyjoe

BanditLuke wrote: »

On a serious note can you imagine the amount of pure misery that Joe would ring out of any Covid19 outbreak here on a large scale

Disgraceful Joe

bodhrandude

The BBC do an interesting piece here about fake news and sensationalist scaremongering headlines. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51504512

gozunda

Situation reports (WHO) showing spread of Corona virus to other provinces

eg Henan adjacent to Wuhan Province





https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

SeaBreezes

bodhrandude wrote: »

The BBC do an interesting piece here about fake news and sensationalist scaremongering headlines. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51504512

How is it fake news? The research was: The study estimated nearly 60,000 people might have travelled to almost 400 cities worldwide before the Wuhan authorities had imposed a ban on travel.

The story was: leading to headlines such as "New map reveals no country safe from coronavirus tentacles" and "Terrifying map reveals how thousands of Wuhan travellers could have spread coronavirus to 400 cities worldwide."

BanditLuke

Some effort by the Chinese to stop this spreading to Beijing and Shanghai.

wakka12

It may not be fake news but certainly falls into the latter 'sensationalist scare mongering headline'

RebelButtMunch

whiskeyman wrote: »

Call a local GP or medical center / local HSE clinic etc...

Calling 999 for flu symptoms seems rather excessive, no?
So much for easing sense of panic.

Yeah maybe. Although in the context of a pandemic maybe not. I wonder have the 999 people already planned for that announcement.

bodhrandude

SeaBreezes wrote: »

How is it fake news? The research was: The study estimated nearly 60,000 people might have travelled to almost 400 cities worldwide before the Wuhan authorities had imposed a ban on travel.

The story was: leading to headlines such as "New map reveals no country safe from coronavirus tentacles" and "Terrifying map reveals how thousands of Wuhan travellers could have spread coronavirus to 400 cities worldwide."

No not that bit it was the tabloids latching on to the flight map and misinterpreting it as the Wuhan residents flight path to the rest of the world which it wasn't, it was just a flight map of the world in general from another discussion on the same topic.

ObiTwoKenobi

wadacrack wrote: »

Both countries are testing all flu like symptoms The data in these countries over the next few wees will help give us a better understanding of what we are dealing with

What? Have they developed a urine test for the virus?

laurah591

gozunda wrote: »

Situation reports (WHO) showing spread of Corona virus to other provinces

eg Henan adjacent to Wuhan Province





https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Will be interested to see how WHO report tomorrow following China's amendment to reporting criteria (ie formally diagnosed cases only) I understand today's increase of 367 odd was a net figure dismissing some cases previously counted.

Kermit.de.frog

I wonder will they consider using the natural super weapon that is available? They could use bacterial phages.

It seems like an ideal testing ground against this.

bodhrandude

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wonder will they consider using the natural super weapon that is available? They could use bacterial phages.

It seems like an ideal testing ground against this.

What's that now?

BanditLuke

CNN had a guy on earlier talking to a guy on board the ship. Sounded grim on there

bodhrandude

Coronavirus could cost global economy $1 Trillion Dollars in lost income if it turns into a pandemic. (Guardian)

Kermit.de.frog

cloudatlas wrote: »

Watching a live stream there, the commentators saying the hospitals that were thrown up in a few days were a p.r exercise primarily, bad design, infrastructure problems, people in large rooms together cross infecting.

This is how communist regimes work sadly. You can't believe a single thing they do or say especially to the outside world.

Kermit.de.frog

bodhrandude wrote: »

What's that now?

Look up bacteriaphage on youtube.

I heard of it before. Really interesting what it does to bacteria harmful to humans.

Seen as a possible solution to antibiotics crisis too.

wakka12

No new cases in Shanghai for second day in a row

fritzelly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Look up bacteriaphage on youtube.

I heard of it before. Really interesting what it does to bacteria harmful to humans.

Seen as a possible solution to antibiotics crisis too.

They attack bacteria but this is a thread about a virus???

BanditLuke

wakka12 wrote: »

No new cases in Shanghai for second day in a row

Incredible really.

Kermit.de.frog

fritzelly wrote: »

They attack bacteria but this is a thread about a virus???

It is a virus, I don't know if it can be applied to this though because I don't know enough about it.

fritzelly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is a virus, I don't know if it can be applied to this though because I don't know enough about it.

Why spout nonsense when you don't even know how they work
Move over to the conspiracy forum - never thought you were this type Kermit

BloodBath

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

This virus just doesn't do good news.

Not when you use unreliable news sources who still have links to debunked conspiracy theories like the cremation gases on their main page.

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6e50645_2


WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 29 Feb 19..
WHO is working with an international network of statisticians and mathematical modelers to estimate key epidemiologic parameters of COVID19, such as the incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset), case fatality ratio (CFR, the proportion of cases that die), and the serial interval (the time between symptom onset of a primary and secondary case). Reports of current analyses that have estimated these parameters are provided in this Situation Report as a summary of currently available evidence. These values should be considered preliminary and parameters will likely be updated as more information becomes available.

Preliminary estimates of median incubation period are 5-6 days (ranging from 0-14 days) and estimates for the serial interval range from 4.4 to 7.5 days


The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.
This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die. As the outbreak continues, the confirmed CFR may change.

(They skip past the fact all they have to do, to get a better idea, is factor in the time lag to closed cases, and estimate the number of cases 3 weeks(ish) before, but everyone seems to be fudging that issue, so it must be a scary number, otherwise it would be all over every release.(IMO))

Anyway, here is it, the latest and greatest from WHO..

Edit: Comments in Twitter make me laugh/cry:

- When do we expect the findings from the team
- Apparently after half the world's population has it.

Bolded the point I've made several times. These WHO stats don't take into account undiagnosed cases which with most infections like these far exceed confirmed ones. Chinas draconic measures probably rounded up many who were recorvering at home but I'm sure they missed a lot too.

fritzelly

Looks like S Korea numbers are about to do a massive jump in new cases

BanditLuke

fritzelly wrote: »

Looks like S Korea numbers are about to do a massive jump in new cases

Yeah South Korea and Japan are the ones to watch.

Kermit.de.frog

fritzelly wrote: »

Why spout nonsense when you don't even know how they work
Move over to the conspiracy forum - never thought you were this type Kermit

I'll stay right here, thank you very much.

wakka12

15 new cases in S Korea
More than twenty yesterday
Almost double the number of cases in the country in 48 hours

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

15 new cases in S Korea
More than twenty yesterday
Almost double the number of cases in the country in 48 hours

More to come

CinemaGuy45

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'll stay right here, thank you very much.

Just be careful there are rumours this thing can spread thought wifi the 2.4GH band I think you should be safe using 5GH if you set a strong password.;)

Kermit.de.frog

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Just be careful there are rumours this thing can spread thought wifi the 2.4GH band I think you should be safe using 5GH if you set a strong password.;)

That's more plausible than the 'stats' overseen by the politburo

gozunda

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is a virus, I don't know if it can be applied to this though because I don't know enough about it.

You may be interested in this piece of research

The old adage of feed a cold and starve a fever.
now is feed a virus, starve a bacterium?

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2016/09/13/feed-a-virus-starve-a-bacterium/

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/09/glucose-inflammation/498965/

wakka12

fritzelly wrote: »

More to come

Yep 16 more added just now, a total of 31 added in the last hour and 51 over the last 24 hours. It is the most daily increases ever reported outside China. Country total 82 now, just behind Japan and Singapore with 84 each

CinemaGuy45

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's more plausible than the 'stats' overseen by the politbureau

I am not into the conspiracy theories much myself either but one thing you said was we can not trust anything the Chinese government says.


You can not trust anything any Government says if would be a wacky conspiracy to believe there is any honest Government out there.:D

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

Yep 16 more added just now. Country total 82 now, just behind Japan and Singapore with 84 each

Over 50% increase in one day is not good news

BanditLuke

fritzelly wrote: »

Over 50% increase in one day is not good news

I wonder if they are now at the stage Wuhan was at 6 weeks ago?

Huge increase either way.

fritzelly

BanditLuke wrote: »

I wonder if they are now at the stage Wuhan was at 6 weeks ago?

Huge increase either way.

Who knows what Wuhan was like 6 weeks ago - they don't know

fritzelly

China's got this under control - all hail Xi

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230311827889967105

bodhrandude

Coronavirus 'spike' protein just mapped, leading way to vaccine (livescience.com).

fritzelly

Sad news - Japanese couple in their 80's. Japan and WHO have a lot to answer for

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230320994298073088

tuxy

fritzelly wrote: »

Sad news - Japanese couple in their 80's. Japan and WHO have a lot to answer for

I'm out of the loop on this one. What exactly did the WHO do that caused Japan to leave these people on the ship?

fritzelly

tuxy wrote: »

I'm out of the loop on this one. What exactly did the WHO do that caused Japan to leave these people on the ship?

To paraphrase they said it was best for them to stay on the ship - will try to find the video of the Irish doctor saying it

fritzelly

Here

tuxy

fritzelly wrote: »

To paraphrase they said it was best for them to stay on the ship - will try to find the video of the Irish doctor saying it

I see, well lets wait and see if these two were some of the infected that were taken off the ship early and taken to hospital. Or maybe they were possibly uninfected and only contracted the virus as a result of being left on the ship.

It really does look like most of the spread happened while docked after the first discovery of an infected person on board.

fritzelly

Important to study this event to see what issues led to the spreading sic
I mean seriously

ardinn

So I posted a video yesterday of bodies lining the streets.

Im wondering now, how many people die each day naturally.

Worldwide, 150k people die every day

7b people - 150k dead - so, china (1/7th of world population) = about 22k dead per day.

so 22k per billion people.

500m - 11k

50m - 1.1k

10m - Wuhan size - 220 people die every day.

So - since Jan 25th - 5940 people on average would have died in wuhan anyway.

It would explain a lot including why so many people are lining the streets dead. In some morbid fashion its actually making me feel better. with the lack of any real medical help for all other illnesses this figure would naturally increase also.

I suppose I didnt think that the day to day deaths etc, in a place in nearly full lockdown, would eventually have a severe backlog of bodies piling up which makes it very hard to judge what your seeing regards dead coming out of wuhan.

tuxy

fritzelly wrote: »

Important to study this event to see what issues led to the spreading sic
I mean seriously

I think it may be possible that there is an incredibly long incubation period and it did not spread much after quarantine started on the ship. But it is looking less likely everyday.

bodhrandude

The Guardian report on the Japanese deaths..