new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

tuxy

bodhrandude wrote: »

The Guardian report on the Japanese deaths..

This is the video referenced in that article.

fritzelly

bodhrandude wrote: »

The Guardian report on the Japanese deaths..

The infected guy was on the ship from the 20/01 to 25/01
The ship docked on the 4/02 in Japan
They were hospitalised about a week later - so nearly 3 weeks after this guy left the ship
A week later they are dead.

Average incubation being 5/6 days it would look like they got infected while docked and quarantined

tuxy

fritzelly wrote: »

The infected guy was on the ship from the 20/01 to 25/01
The ship docked on the 4/02 in Japan
They were hospitalised about a week later
A week later they are dead.

So probably contracted it before the ship docked?

fritzelly

tuxy wrote: »

So probably contracted it before the ship docked?

That would mean they are 2 weeks in incubation - and another week for symptoms to develop to the point of hospitalisation needed, don't know what condition there were in when hospitalised
I'm sure there will be investigations done
Doctor Ryan in that video was visibly uneasy answering the question about the ship - think he knows they fecked up

tuxy

The first case on the Diamond princess was officially confirmed on the 5th then this man that died was diagnosed around the 11th(is that about right?) and moved to hospital and he died on the 19th?

Doesn't seem like an unusually long incubation period or have I got the timeline completely wrong?

https://www.riverineherald.com.au/world/2020/02/20/1045690/coronavirus-spreads-like-flu-not-sars

Looking increasingly like it Spreads like Flu, not SARS:

COVID-19 appears to inhabit both the upper and lower respiratory tracts.

That would make it not only capable of causing severe pneumonia, but of spreading easily like flu or the common cold.

Researchers in Guangdong province monitored the amount of coronavirus in the 18 patients.

One of them, who had moderate levels of the virus in their nose and throat, never had any disease symptoms.

Among the 17 symptomatic patients, the team found levels of the virus increased soon after symptoms first appeared, with higher amounts of virus present in the nose than in the throats, a pattern more similar to influenza than SARS.

The level of virus in the asymptomatic patient was similar to what was present in patients with symptoms, such as fever.

"What this says is clearly this virus can be shed out of the upper respiratory tract and that people are shedding it asymptomatically," Poland said.

The findings add to evidence that this new virus, though genetically similar, is not behaving like SARS, said Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at Scripps Research in La Jolla who uses gene sequencing tools to track disease outbreaks.

"This virus is clearly much more capable of spreading between humans than any other novel coronavirus we've ever seen. This is more akin to the spread of flu," said Andersen, who was not involved with the study.

Nonoperational

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

This virus just doesn't do good news.

There is so much wrong with this article. From a medical point of view it is complete nonsense.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wonder will they consider using the natural super weapon that is available? They could use bacterial phages.

It seems like an ideal testing ground against this.

Sigh.

wakka12

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230317858166583297?s=19

Mayor of Daegu, SK's 4th largest city, declares 'unprecedented crisis' as schools close, and people are advised not to leave their homes. 22 further cases now which makes it the highest number outside China at 104

South Korea also announced its first death from coronavirus

wakka12

3 more cases in Iran

Hector Savage

wakka12 wrote: »

3 more cases in Iran

The Iranian cases, who are they ? are they chinese nationals ?

wakka12

Hector Savage wrote: »

The Iranian cases, who are they ? are they chinese nationals ?

Not been released. The two men who died were Iranian citizens though

gozunda

Why it may not be possible to contain the Coronavirus outbreak

I think we missed the chance to contain the coronavirus inside China,” Cowling says...

A study by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimates that 46 out of 100 infected travelers will be able to pass undetected through both exit screening at their departure destination and entry screening at their arrival location.

https://time.com/5784942/coronavirus-screening-westerdam-testing/

Kermit.de.frog

The WSJ is amazed that China is punishing it's journalists by expelling them over a critical article headline describing the country correctly as the 'sick man of Asia'

I'm shocked.

SeaBreezes

gozunda wrote: »

Why it may not be possible to contain the Coronavirus outbreak



https://time.com/5784942/coronavirus-screening-westerdam-testing/

Ah yeah, and only 9 cases in the uk?
Even after the bus drivers convention? Really?
We have more suspected cases here but no direct flights to China.
How can London not have more cases?
Makes no sense.

Western Sydney University is offering $1,500 payments to Chinese students to help fund travel packages to third-country transit destinations to get around the federal government’s coronavirus ban.

International students at Western Sydney University have been informed that the institution will “pay each student arriving in Australia through a third county $1500 AUD to help cover the cost of airfares and 14 days’ accommodation”.

paywalled so google search helps:
https://www.google.com/search?q=Western+Sydney+University+will+pay+each+student+arriving+in+Australia+through+a+third+country+%241500+AUD+to+help+cover+the+cost+of+airfares+and+14+days+accomodation.&rlz=1C1CHNY_enAU705AU705&oq=Western+Sydney+University+will+pay+each+student+arriving+in+Australia+through+a+third+country+%241500+AUD+to+help+cover+the+cost+of+airfares+and+14+days+accomodation.&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

laurah591

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200220002055320

Good article re Sth Korea

BNO reporting that Sth Koreas death was a person who has been hospitalized for schizophrenia for 20 years. Very sad, i hope this virus is not widespread in that hospital

Graces7

Snow Garden wrote: »

Drumpot suggested he was stockpiling specifically because of the threat of corona virus and when I asked him why, he denied it. I don't care if people want to stockpile supplies but corona should not be a reason to start. And scaring other people into stockpiling is stupid. The risk is way too small.

Similar to this post, it was and is the accusatory way you used the word and are still using it. No one here is scared and hey! If most of us stock up quietly now, then there will not be a mad rush if the situation goes bad later. We will all be ready for anything - and to help those who did not bother to make provision.

So what they call a win win I believe...

And corona is a very very valid reason to stock up. It has that potential. An unknown and volatile quantity

Define please the difference between making provision for emergency by getting stocks of essentials in and " stockpiling"? Thank you.

We always had a walk in pantry full of tinned supplies etc when I was a child. Just good housekeeping. As this is now.

Drumpot

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ah yeah, and only 9 cases in the uk?
Even after the bus drivers convention? Really?
We have more suspected cases here but no direct flights to China.
How can London not have more cases?
Makes no sense.

Yeh, I think part of it is our understanding (or lack of) of how the virus is spread.

If we take it that it was maybe end of January (?) when serious measures were taking place it means that for maybe up to 8 weeks the virus was spreading with relatively little resistance. (Since we cannot trust chinese its not clear on all details of the measures to try and stop spread).

Imagine even one infected person going to any country outside of China at any stage between start of December and End of January. How many people would the average person interact with over a few weeks? And what if they are a person that travels to numerous countries (so are in airports regularly)?

If this virus can be asymptomatic for 2-3 weeks (?), up to 85% of those infected (but can spread it) and our measures of detecting the virus in a person appear to be variable across the world (false negatives), it is very difficult for a layman to accept its only spread as low as the figures we have gotten from every country. I am not suggesting some massive conspiracy BTW, more that there are just many many cases that go unreported for numerous reasons, some of which are that people dont even realise they are infected.

poppers

Maybee should be in conspiracy theory form

Drumpot

poppers wrote: »

Maybee should be in conspiracy theory form

WTF is that ? Very freaky coincidence ?! Is that actually a real book ?

poppers

Drumpot wrote: »

WTF is that ? Very freaky coincidence ?! Is that actually a real book ?

Dont know doing the rounds on whats app

Sigma101

Hector Savage wrote: »

The Iranian cases, who are they ? are they chinese nationals ?

All five are/were Iranian nationals. The two dead patients were elderly men from different parts of Qom and have no travel history either abroad or within Iran. Clearly they contracted the disease from the general population within the country. Two more cases have tested positive in Qom and one, a doctor, in the city of Arak. There must be many more undiagnosed cases in the region.

Stark

Drumpot wrote:

WTF is that ? Very freaky coincidence ?! Is that actually a real book ?

You can download a PDF of the book and check for yourself.

https://epdf.pub/eyes-of-darkness82c283c4e6bf8cd84989f912b5df328b1232.html

Second screenshot, the "Wuhan-400" stuff is in there. The screenshot of "2020 pneumonia virus" doesn't appear to be in the book, guess that's the bit that they made up.

Drumpot

Drumpot wrote: »

WTF is that ? Very freaky coincidence ?! Is that actually a real book ?

Yes its a real book. Written in 1981.

Edit: but the third picture is from a different picture.

s7ryf3925pivug

poppers wrote: »

Maybee should be in conspiracy theory form

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/coronavirus-journalist-missing-in-wuhan-as-anger-towards-chinese-authorities-grows

For anyone else who wasn't sure why the name 'Li Chen' was circled on the first page: Chen was the name of the whistleblowing doctor. Li was the name of a journalist reporting on the situation who disappeared.

s7ryf3925pivug

That's interesting. Apparently we're all figments of imagination in someone's bad dream.

Searching twitter with hashtag #qom and I came across this. Supposedly this is one of the men who passed away yesterday but I’m unsure if it’s real due to the lack of protective clothing the man soothing him has on.

https://twitter.com/babaktaghvaee1/status/1230285743538528256?s=21

Yurt2

The latest surge in cases in Korea was from a kooky doomsday cult church who refused to be tested initially.

s7ryf3925pivug

Yurt! wrote: »

The latest surge in cases in Korea was from a kooky doomsday cult church who refused to be tested initially.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/south-korean-city-daegu-lockdown-coronavirus-outbreak-cases-soar-at-church-cult-cluster

About half of the cases were down to one superspreader who worshipped there.

Interesting how dangerous a single superspreader can be if they don't behave responsibly.

skepticalme

Drumpot wrote: »

WTF is that ? Very freaky coincidence ?! Is that actually a real book ?

3rd page is from a different book 'End of days Predictions and Prophecies about the End of the World.

"AMERICAN author Sylvia Browne may have prophesied the outbreak of Covid-19 in a book published 12 years ago.

In her book End of Days: Predictions and Prophecies about the End of the World, which was co-written with Lindsay Harrison, Browne predicts the outbreak of a respiratory-related illness that will wreak havoc around the world.

“In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments,“ reads a passage from the book.

“Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack again ten years later, and then disappear completely.”

Browne was a fixture on American talk shows, and claimed to be a medium with psychic abilities. She died in 2013."

Stark

To be fair, lots of people have been saying we're overdue for "the next Spanish flu" for years now. Her prophecy could just as equally apply to SARS or MERS or swine flu or whatever scary thing comes along in 2021 so getting the year right isn't really a big achievement.

laurah591

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/south-korean-city-daegu-lockdown-coronavirus-outbreak-cases-soar-at-church-cult-cluster

About half of the cases were down to one superspreader who worshipped there.

Interesting how dangerous a single superspreader can be if they don't behave responsibly.

Another interesting article drawing similarities between Singapore's and Sth Korea's church outbreaks https://www.ft.com/content/fd5fec40-538b-11ea-90ad-25e377c0ee1f

wakka12

International mortality almost 1%

BanditLuke

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ah yeah, and only 9 cases in the uk?
Even after the bus drivers convention? Really?
We have more suspected cases here but no direct flights to China.
How can London not have more cases?
Makes no sense.

Terrible to see so many die in Wuhan but i have to say this is a fascinating virus. It is bizarre to think it spread in Wuhan so easily and yet despite cases in Europe it's going nowhere. Someone mentioned last week about it possibly being transported in the water system in Wuhan which is interesting maye the same thing happened on the cruise ferry?

wakka12

5 new cases in 5 different regions of Japan

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

International mortality almost 1%

I hate commenting on estimated mortality rates, but i suspect that cases are significantly underreported especially where people are suffering mild symptoms. Realistically most people will not see a doctor with common cold type symptoms. As such Int mortality potentially significantly lower (in my opinion).

Also, I have seen very little reporting coming from America (now I haven't searched), however u would have thought that they would be experiencing more cases.

tara73

poppers wrote: »

Maybee should be in conspiracy theory form

guys, this is freaking me out. what can we make of this? if this book is not a fake book written in the last month (and I googled it, seems to be real/from 1980) nobody can tell me this is all a coincidence and especially no conspiracy stuff anymore..:eek:

silverharp

The dog that hasn’t barked yet, no healthy Westerners, Africans etc have died yet?

Stark

tara73 wrote: »

guys, this is freaking me out. what can we make of this? if this book is not a fake book written in the last month (and I googled it, seems to be real/from 1980) nobody can tell me this is all a coincidence and especially no conspiracy stuff anymore..:eek:

One person got lucky predicting a respiratory illness in a particular year. Chances of getting that prediction right being something like 1 in 40.

There are people who've won the Euromillions despite the chances of winning being only 1 in 140 million. Do those people also have "psychic powers"?

ohnonotgmail

tara73 wrote: »

guys, this is freaking me out. what can we make of this? if this book is not a fake book written in the last month (and I googled it, seems to be real/from 1980) nobody can tell me this is all a coincidence and especially no conspiracy stuff anymore..:eek:

so-called psychic mediums make predictions all the time. Occassionally one turns out to be correct but even a blind squirrel will find the occassional nut.

wakka12

silverharp wrote: »

The dog that hasn’t barked yet, no healthy Westerners, Africans etc have died yet?

Two middle eastern men. Very few 'healthy' people have died regardless of ethnicity

Mic 1972

South Korea is spiking in the last few day while Europe is not moving
Wondering how this is related to more people being tested versus few people being tested

In Europe we test people who got in contact with other infected people or who were traveling from China, there could be a lot more people going around with the virus at the moment. The Iranian cases are evidence that the virus doesn't only travel by plane

wakka12

South Korea close schools for first time in it's history on the grounds of health

https://twitter.com/livecrisisnews/status/1230140167324827650

havent seen this reported anywhere else so take with some salt

gozunda

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ah yeah, and only 9 cases in the uk?
Even after the bus drivers convention? Really?
We have more suspected cases here but no direct flights to China.
How can London not have more cases?
Makes no sense.

Well I'd suggest reading the article and the linked research for a start.

From what I have read the city of Wuhan had a time lag of least 6-8 weeks between patient zero and the infection starting to go epidemic. The issue imo is that 80% of people will only experience mild symptoms or none. Many of those infected are not going to be picked up until the infection really takes a foothold.

I dont believe that just because we are European or somehow magically different will stop that tbh.

tara73

but these are not general 'psychic meduim predictions' about some pandemie from my pov. It describes exactly this case, a pneumonial virus, developed in the labs outside of WUHAN. That's what written in this book, no denying or downplaying it.

I can't get my head around why people could not be shocked by this..
Also, the book gives a very interesting hint: they always say the virus must have come from a bat/pangolin or whatever animal. Did they do tests in the last weeks to see if the virus is even able to live/reproduce in this animals to determine whether they could even be the spreader? would be a revealing study..

and i can't stand it anymore people jumping out calling this conspiracy theories, they are not, it's the complete opposite: they are very realistic scenarios. if somebody would say, ok, the lizard people are at it again, sure, BS, not listening, but it has to be discussed and to find out in the end where this virus came from and it doesn't help to taboo and call people conspiracy nuts (why at all I ask myself, you only taboo and shoot down subjects because there's some truth which shouldn't be discovered) when there are very valid and likely reasons to believe it was manmade coming from a lab in Wuhan.

wakka12

laurah591 wrote: »

I hate commenting on estimated mortality rates, but i suspect that cases are significantly underreported especially where people are suffering mild symptoms. Realistically most people will not see a doctor with common cold type symptoms. As such Int mortality potentially significantly lower (in my opinion).

Also, I have seen very little reporting coming from America (now I haven't searched), however u would have thought that they would be experiencing more cases.

Yes I would have said so too but it is odd how few cases are turning up positive considering how many tests some countries are performing

ohnonotgmail

tara73 wrote: »

but these are not general 'psychic meduim predictions' about some pandemie from my pov. It describes exactly this case, a pneumonial virus, developed in the labs outside of WUHAN. That's what written in this book, no denying or downplaying it.

I can't get my head around why people could not be shocked by this..
Also, the book gives a very interesting hint: they always say the virus must have come from a bat/pangolin or whatever animal. Did they do tests in the last weeks to see if the virus is even able to live/reproduce in this animals to determine whether they could even be the spreader? would be a revealing study..

and i can't stand it anymore people jumping out calling this conspiracy theories, they are not, it's the complete opposite: they are very realistic scenarios. if somebody would say, ok, the lizard people are at it again, sure, BS, not listening, but it has to be discussed and to find out in the end where this virus came from and it doesn't help to taboo and call people conspiracy nuts (why at all I ask myself, you only taboo and shoot down subjects because there's some truth which shouldn't be discovered) when there are very valid and likely reasons to believe it was manmade coming from a lab in Wuhan.

you showed 2 pages from a work of fiction. the details of which do not match up with the current virus apart from the location. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dean-koontz-predicted-coronavirus/

gozunda

tara73 wrote: »

guys, this is freaking me out. what can we make of this? if this book is not a fake book written in the last month (and I googled it, seems to be real/from 1980) nobody can tell me this is all a coincidence and especially no conspiracy stuff anymore..:eek:

Already discussed quite a while back

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112531235

The updated reference in the book is based on the fact that there is a Virology lab in Wuhan.

gozunda

skepticalme wrote: »

3rd page is from a different book 'End of days Predictions and Prophecies about the End of the World.

"AMERICAN author Sylvia Browne may have prophesied the outbreak of Covid-19 in a book published 12 years ago.

In her book End of Days: Predictions and Prophecies about the End of the World, which was co-written with Lindsay Harrison, Browne predicts the outbreak of a respiratory-related illness that will wreak havoc around the world.

“In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments,“ reads a passage from the book.

“Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack again ten years later, and then disappear completely.”

Browne was a fixture on American talk shows, and claimed to be a medium with psychic abilities. She died in 2013."

Tbh - It reminds me a bit of HG Wells War of the Worlds where the common cold (a corona virus) defeats the army of invading aliens

These germs of disease have taken toll of humanity since the beginning of things—taken toll of our prehuman ancestors since life began here. But by virtue of this natural selection of our kind we have developed resisting power; to no germs do we succumb without a struggle,