new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Idjit

mikhail wrote: »

One case in Cambodia, one in South Korea. I think you can probably consider everywhere outside of China to be fairly low risk.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Yes but Thailand has the highest number of cases outside of China as they rely hugely on Chinese tourism. So I am watching the spread from there through SE Asia

Idjit

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Not sure why you're more worried about Korea than Thailand......Thailand has the most confirmed cases of any country outside of China (14 I think?).

But, you'll be grand travelling any of those countries (apart from China) over the next couple of weeks unless things deteriorate rapidly.

Sorry I wasn't clear, I was planning to travel to China and then fly from China to S.Korea. Since I'm not going anywhere near China, the planned trip to S.Korea wont be happening either (as a consequence of my stopover in China being eliminated, not necessarily because S.Korea is rampant with the virus).

I was reading on Thai news that roads and islands have been blocked off in certain parts of Thailand but not sure how accurate it is, this may be a translation error. Another poster has reassured me it's business as usual in SE Asia so that is reassuring!

Witchie

Well it seems to be business as normal here in Malaysia, that said, I haven't left my apartment since Sunday so I may not be the most reliable source.

Nijmegen

Larbre34 wrote: »

My Bro in law got out of dodge last night, his time, on a flight for which he paid a significant premium. He's made it as far as London and plans to spend the rest of his leave there and return home as scheduled this weekend.

I told him thanks for quarantining himself!

He can wander around sneezing and singing "Come out come out..."

Shut the freaking borders
Do not go to work if you're sick
We need enforced quarantine for travellers from outside the country

creditcarder

Deleted User wrote: »

Shut the freaking borders
Do not go to work if you're sick
We need enforced quarantine for travellers from outside the country

An overreaction, but I don't see the problem for a week. On the flipside, Ireland doesn't have the situation to become 'as much' of a storm outside of dublin. A good healthcare system, gps at the local level, a large rural area, and so on and so forth.



Dublin could be different I guess?

Edit: The population density is as much as London.

saabsaab

Densely populated cities would be at risk. Same with all pandemics.

circadian

creditcarder wrote: »

An overreaction, but I don't see the problem for a week. On the flipside, Ireland doesn't have the situation to become 'as much' of a storm outside of dublin. A good healthcare system, gps at the local level, a large rural area, and so on and so forth.



Dublin could be different I guess?

Edit: The population density is as much as London.

The HSE is in absolutely no shape to deal with this. I would be extremely concerned not to mention the NHS in the UK isn't far behind so treatment and containment on these islands is not something I'd be confident in.

creditcarder

circadian wrote: »

The HSE is in absolutely no shape to deal with this. I would be extremely concerned not to mention the NHS in the UK isn't far behind so treatment and containment on these islands is not something I'd be confident in.

Maybe for a first world country it might be behind, but compared to China? OR Vietnam? OR, in some ways because of culture, Japan?



Honestly, we have it lucky :P

Witchie

Witchie wrote: »

Well it seems to be business as normal here in Malaysia, that said, I haven't left my apartment since Sunday so I may not be the most reliable source.

Pretty much the same. Only been out in public twice since last Friday I think. Lunar New Year has all the travel and craziness before it, but when it's actually on, most things are closed and people are with their families at home.

That part of the reporting has been a little bit inaccurate. Talking about quiet streets as if that's abnormal and everyone is in fear across the country. They're just at home eating.

circadian

creditcarder wrote: »

Maybe for a first world country it might be behind, but compared to China? OR Vietnam? OR, in some ways because of culture, Japan?



Honestly, we have it lucky :P

China has a decent Healthcare system, and people don't realise that most of its major cities are on par with developed nations. The government has the resources to throw at this kind of thing.

I agree an outbreak in Vietnam wouldn't go so well, and with confirmed infections in Thailand and Cambodia in particular I would be concerned for SE Asia.

Yes our Healthcare is better than SE Asia, better than China would be debatable considering our own system is completely overrun as it is.

circadian

circadian wrote: »

The HSE is in absolutely no shape to deal with this. I would be extremely concerned not to mention the NHS in the UK isn't far behind so treatment and containment on these islands is not something I'd be confident in.

In a time of no pandemic, my girlfriend got offered half a bed sharing with an 80-year-old man in a public hospital in Vietnam. Half.

What countries do you think are better equipped than Ireland or the UK to deal with a pandemic? Is any country just "ready" like that?

circadian

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In a time of no pandemic, my girlfriend got offered half a bed sharing with an 80-year-old man in a public hospital in Vietnam. Half.

What countries do you think are better equipped than Ireland or the UK to deal with a pandemic? Is any country just "ready" like that?

I wouldn't say any country is just ready but some are much more capable than others to mobilise. Like I said, yes Vietnam would be different from the likes of China, Ireland or anywhere else that's developed. My point is, our Healthcare system is already overrun, hospitals are overcrowded so the poster thinking we're grand and could cope, especially in rural Ireland is misguided in my opinion.

I'd imagine other nations like Korea, Japan, Germany with well developed Healthcare systems are in a much better position to try and get a handle on this than we are if there were to be an outbreak.

Although I do wonder how severe this is in healthy people, do they still need medical assistance or could they wait it out at home as with the flu? It's very effective at spreading but I wonder how hard hitting it is to the majority of people.

wakka12

circadian wrote: »

I wouldn't say any country is just ready but some are much more capable than others to mobilise. Like I said, yes Vietnam would be different from the likes of China, Ireland or anywhere else that's developed. My point is, our Healthcare system is already overrun, hospitals are overcrowded so the poster thinking we're grand and could cope, especially in rural Ireland is misguided in my opinion.

I'd imagine other nations like Korea, Japan, Germany with well developed Healthcare systems are in a much better position to try and get a handle on this than we are if there were to be an outbreak.

Although I do wonder how severe this is in healthy people, do they still need medical assistance or could they wait it out at home as with the flu? It's very effective at spreading but I wonder how hard hitting it is to the majority of people.

Yeh it's not really known yet. It seems to be pretty mild in most people.But a sizeable number of the deaths were in people in their 50's and early 60's ,which isnt particularly old . Most people in this age group are perfectly healthy under normal circumstances and should easily be able to survive flu.

circadian

circadian wrote: »

I wouldn't say any country is just ready but some are much more capable than others to mobilise. Like I said, yes Vietnam would be different from the likes of China, Ireland or anywhere else that's developed. My point is, our Healthcare system is already overrun, hospitals are overcrowded so the poster thinking we're grand and could cope, especially in rural Ireland is misguided in my opinion.

I'd imagine other nations like Korea, Japan, Germany with well developed Healthcare systems are in a much better position to try and get a handle on this than we are if there were to be an outbreak.

Although I do wonder how severe this is in healthy people, do they still need medical assistance or could they wait it out at home as with the flu? It's very effective at spreading but I wonder how hard hitting it is to the majority of people.

I have a friend who is an ER doctor in South Korea. She works part time in the hospital, but does so because her rent of the nearby apartment is tied to her working in the hospital. Basically free rent if she completes 20 hours a week in the ER.

Meanwhile we have a shortage of nurses and doctors and ridiculous rents.

The apartment building across from Tallaght hospital was in NAMA. We could attract hundreds of nurses over night with a little bit of joined up thinking.

wakka12

https://rmc.bfmtv.com/emission/nouveau-coronavirus-un-quatrieme-cas-avere-en-france-1848685.html
4th french case in critical condition

tom1ie

creditcarder wrote: »

An overreaction, but I don't see the problem for a week. On the flipside, Ireland doesn't have the situation to become 'as much' of a storm outside of dublin. A good healthcare system, gps at the local level, a large rural area, and so on and so forth.



Dublin could be different I guess?

Edit: The population density is as much as London.

Who has a good healthcare system?

tom1ie

creditcarder wrote: »

Maybe for a first world country it might be behind, but compared to China? OR Vietnam? OR, in some ways because of culture, Japan?



Honestly, we have it lucky :P

Jaysus, give it a rest Leo!!

thecretinhop

wakka12 wrote: »

https://rmc.bfmtv.com/emission/nouveau-coronavirus-un-quatrieme-cas-avere-en-france-1848685.html
4th french case in critical condition

elderly man tho.. there seems to be a difference between china v elsewhere so far.
i wonder are we seeing Eu etc getting first version and more lethal mutated version on china now..

tom1ie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I have a friend who is an ER doctor in South Korea. She works part time in the hospital, but does so because her rent of the nearby apartment is tied to her working in the hospital. Basically free rent if she completes 20 hours a week in the ER.

Meanwhile we have a shortage of nurses and doctors and ridiculous rents.

The apartment building across from Tallaght hospital was in NAMA. We could attract hundreds of nurses over night with a little bit of joined up thinking.

Wrong thread.
This is for a global virus outbreak.

tom1ie

Is there any info on the age demographic regarding the death rate of this thing?

fritzelly

“I think we are dramatically underestimating” cases in China by “tens of thousands,” Gottlieb told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/cdc-tells-travelers-to-avoid-china-in-expanded-travel-warning-as-coronavirus-spreads.html

circadian

circadian wrote: »

China has a decent Healthcare system, and people don't realise that most of its major cities are on par with developed nations. The government has the resources to throw at this kind of thing.

The problem for China is quality of care. The professionalism and ability of their doctors is definitely a weakness, along with the amount of corruption within their administrative areas. China has reported that they're already having problems with finding enough medicine to treat their existing problem cases.

The difference with Ireland, is that doctors in Ireland have all been trained to a high standard, as have their nurses. China lags far behind in this case. And honestly, I wouldn't go to a standard Chinese hospital.. A military hospital sure, but there tends to be only one or two in any tier 2 city, so perhaps 3 in the tier 1 cities. There's also private clinics which would have foreign trained doctors, but again, the quality can vary widely.

Yes our Healthcare is better than SE Asia, better than China would be debatable considering our own system is completely overrun as it is.

Irish Healthcare is far superior and more reliable than mainstream Chinese healthcare. Irish people really need to get out of Ireland and gain some perspective of what it's like outside of first world nations.

weldoninhio

creditcarder wrote: »

Maybe for a first world country it might be behind, but compared to China? OR Vietnam? OR, in some ways because of culture, Japan?



Honestly, we have it lucky :P

I think people in those countries would feel bound to visit a hospital or quarantine themselves rather than Paddy going around sneezing and sputtering telling people he hopes he doesn’t have the kung flu and taking the pi55 until he drops.

ChikiChiki

theguzman wrote: »

Meanwhile in the Philippines their President has ordered mass deportations of Chinese even those without any obvious signs of sickness, 4 plane loads were sent back yesterday.

That lads a nutjob

ChikiChiki

We had business continuity meeting today as have offices all over the globe so preparations beginning to mitigate. Some one said its 4 times worse than SARS at this stage. Is that true?

Consensus seemed to be that the cats out of the bag and to start ordering the protective gear and sanitizers. Seemed kind of stark.

circadian

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The problem for China is quality of care. The professionalism and ability of their doctors is definitely a weakness, along with the amount of corruption within their administrative areas. China has reported that they're already having problems with finding enough medicine to treat their existing problem cases.

The difference with Ireland, is that doctors in Ireland have all been trained to a high standard, as have their nurses. China lags far behind in this case. And honestly, I wouldn't go to a standard Chinese hospital.. A military hospital sure, but there tends to be only one or two in any tier 2 city, so perhaps 3 in the tier 1 cities. There's also private clinics which would have foreign trained doctors, but again, the quality can vary widely.



Irish Healthcare is far superior and more reliable than mainstream Chinese healthcare. Irish people really need to get out of Ireland and gain some perspective of what it's like outside of first world nations.

Thanks for the insight.

Despite spending extensive time in China (including Xi'an, snap!) I've never needed to see a doctor or receive treatment. Friends of mine were in Chengdu and had to go to hospital and they said the care was excellent but like you said it can vary wildly.

Without a doubt medical training in Ireland and standards in general are very high, it's the ability for the service to be effective is the problem. That doesn't fall on the medical staff, who I have the upmost respect for but it does fall on those running the HSE.

4068ac1elhodqr

Between this new plage, recent locust swarms in East Africa (worst in 70yrs), and a whole rake of earthquakes in recent weeks (Turkey6.8 Greece6.2,PeutroRico6.2) and the new USEmb over in Jerusalem etc.
Wonder if skygods are preparing for ye olde times of tribulation.

note: Another quake just struck near Jamica (7.7) in the last few hours.

wakka12

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-drei-weitere-faelle-in-bayern-bestaetigt-a-99fbe5d4-0e47-464e-a75e-362481fad33a?d=1580242772?sara_ecid=app_upd_xDl6zCyJhGEY9I3axx5s5LM6z4xunp?sara_ecid=soci_upd_KsBF0AFjflf0DZCxpPYDCQgO1dEMph
3 more coworkers of the first german case have also been infected by him

wakka12

tom1ie wrote: »

Is there any info on the age demographic regarding the death rate of this thing?

Youngest by far was 36 yr/old
Hardly any under 50 years old, deaths are pretty evenly spread between all age groups 50-90. I saw a graph on reddit, though it was only made when there were around 40 deaths. Nearly three times that number now

hmmm

If it's a case that there are actually tens of thousands of cases currently, that would in a way be good news - because unless there is vast numbers lying dead or dying in beds at home, which is unlikely, the mortality rate is quite low. We only hear about the cases which are sick enough to have to go to hospital.

I've no doubt healthcare is better in Ireland than China on an individual basis, but my concern would be that if it took hold there might be a peak of cases which overloads the system - there is only so many intensive care beds. We could free up a lot of ordinary beds by cancelling elective surgery. Keeping it away in the first case sounds like a good idea, but if it does reach here then slowing the spread would be the next best thing.

Any actions taken in response have to balance the economic impact. We don't shut the world down because of the annual flu, even though it kills hundreds of thousands worldwide. People need jobs, they need to travel, food supplies have to be moved etc etc.

thecretinhop

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-drei-weitere-faelle-in-bayern-bestaetigt-a-99fbe5d4-0e47-464e-a75e-362481fad33a?d=1580242772?sara_ecid=app_upd_xDl6zCyJhGEY9I3axx5s5LM6z4xunp?sara_ecid=soci_upd_KsBF0AFjflf0DZCxpPYDCQgO1dEMph
3 more coworkers of the first german case have also been infected by him

de good much shorter than 14 days
de bad how easy it was transmitted

Fr_Dougal

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Between this new plage, recent locust swarms in East Africa (worst in 70yrs), and a whole rake of earthquakes in recent weeks (Turkey6.8 Greece6.2,PeutroRico6.2) and the new USEmb over in Jerusalem etc.
Wonder if skygods are preparing for ye olde times of tribulation.

note: Another quake just struck near Jamica (7.7) in the last few hours.

He is vengeful.

wakka12

hmmm wrote: »

If it's a case that there are actually tens of thousands of cases currently, that would in a way be good news - because unless there is vast numbers lying dead or dying in beds at home, which is unlikely, the mortality rate is quite low. We only hear about the cases which are sick enough to have to go to hospital.

I've no doubt healthcare is better in Ireland than China on an individual basis, but my concern would be that if it took hold there might be a peak of cases which overloads the system - there is only so many intensive care beds. We could free up a lot of ordinary beds by cancelling elective surgery. Keeping it away in the first case sounds like a good idea, but if it does reach here then slowing the spread would be the next best thing.

Any actions taken in response have to balance the economic impact. We don't shut the world down because of the annual flu, even though it kills hundreds of thousands worldwide. People need jobs, they need to travel, food supplies have to be moved etc etc.

It is definitely more dangerous than the flu though. Hundreds of thousands of pepople die worldwide from the flu but its across the world and spread throughout an entire year. Over one hundred people have died in about a fortnight in China in one city, which is a lot higher mortality than normal flu, no matter how many other mild/unrecorded cases there are. China is also a relatively developed country, which should be taken into account, it could be considerably more dangerous in less developed countries. Swine flu was quickly ignored in the west as it was only a bit more dangerous than seasonal flu but killed a lot of people in Africa.

hmmm

wakka12 wrote: »

It is definitely more dangerous than the flu though. Hundreds of thousands of pepople die worldwide from the flu but its across the world and throughout the year. Over one hundred people have died in about a fortnight in China in one city, which is a lot higher mortality than normal flu, no matter how many other mild/unrecorded cases there are

I'm not saying it isn't, but there are 11 million people in that one city - nearly 3 times the size of Ireland. Until we know how many in total are infected, we don't know quite how dangerous it is.

wakka12

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not saying it isn't, but there are 11 million people in that one city - nearly 3 times the size of Ireland. Until we know how many in total are infected, we don't know quite how dangerous it is.

Well actually a lot smaller than that. Some estimates say 5 million people had left Wuhan for the LNY festivities by the time of lockdown, the mayor of Wuhan belives about 9 million people are in the city right now.
https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

Duke of Url

wakka12 wrote: »

Well actually a lot smaller than that. Some estimates say 5 million people had left Wuhan for the LNY festivities by the time of lockdown, the mayor of Wuhan belives about 9 million people are in the city right now.
https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

And how many of the 9 million have coronavirus who haven’t gone to a doctor or hospital?

Potential-Monke

Resident Evil is real, and this outbreak is the proof:

Mr Meanor

NHK Japan reporting 7 cases, one is a bus driver who has never been abroad

ChikiChiki

ChikiChiki wrote: »

We had business continuity meeting today as have offices all over the globe so preparations beginning to mitigate. Some one said its 4 times worse than SARS at this stage. Is that true?

Consensus seemed to be that the cats out of the bag and to start ordering the protective gear and sanitizers. Seemed kind of stark.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/face-masks-sold-out-across-sa-because-of-coronavirus/11908022

be early, things run out quick. I got some a week ago. Adelaide doesnt have any cases, Melbourne does 800km away and that was enough for places to run out of stock.

tonysopprano

Mr Meanor wrote: »

NHK Japan reporting 7 cases, one is a bus driver who has never been abroad

But he drove Chinese tourists

Dante7

Some nonsense here from the Atlantic trying to downplay the importance of R0 values.

"First, the R0 estimates for the new coronavirus are in line with those for many other diseases. They’re similar to those for SARS (2 to 5) and HIV (also 2 to 5), and considerably lower than those for measles (12 to 16)."

HIV is not an airborne or contact virus, and we have a vaccine for measles.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/

wakka12

To anyone saying it appears to be like just regular season flu, last winter in China there was a record number of flu deaths. 143 people died in January 2019 across the entire country of China(1.4 billion).

Wuhan is population of approx 9 million now(with people gone for LNY), and has experienced over 100 deaths in January due to a new virus on top of normal flu deaths.In a typical month in the entire country, 55 people die of seasonal flu, such as in 2018. At 1% of the population of China , Wuhan should expect to have less than 1 seasonal flu death in an average month of a typical year. Wuhan has had 125 deaths due to coronovirus in just over a fortnight as of today.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65c34eaaf7.html

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

creditcarder

Hmmm, certainly makes you think. If the end is nigh, then I'd prefer to have it in the village pub than in a foreign country tbh.

Quantum Erasure

Epicenter of virus outbreak reports 840 new cases and 25 new deaths, raising death toll to 131

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/

hmmm

wakka12 wrote: »

To anyone saying it appears to be like just regular season flu, last winter in China there was a record number of flu deaths. 143 people died in January 2019 across the entire country of China(1.4 billion).

The US has a quarter of the population and 50,000 die in a flu season. About 200-500 people die in Ireland. I know you're taking the figures from a Chinese publication, but they're not correct by several orders of magnitude.

Duke of Url

wakka12 wrote: »

To anyone saying it appears to be like just regular season flu, last winter in China there was a record number of flu deaths. 143 people died in January 2019 across the entire country of China(1.4 billion).

Wuhan is population of approx 9 million now(with people gone for LNY), and has experienced over 100 deaths in January due to a new virus on top of normal flu deaths.In a typical month in the entire country, 55 people die of seasonal flu, such as in 2018. At 1% of the population of China , Wuhan should expect to have less than 1 seasonal flu death in an average month of a typical year. Wuhan has had 125 deaths due to coronovirus in just over a fortnight as of today.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65c34eaaf7.html

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

If you are going to pretend to do research then at least make an effort.

The US flu mortality rate includes cases where flu causes other illnesses to worsen and lead to death, while China only counts people who die directly from flu," an observer who prefers to be anonymous told the Global Times.

The statistical methods used by the Chinese CDC should be revised, as deaths from pneumonia caused by the flu, for example, are not counted, the observer said.

Observers called for an improved statistical approach, and encouraged the public to get an annual flu shot.

An analysis led by Chinese scientists published in The Lancet Public Health in September 2019 found that there were 84,200 to 92,000 flu-related deaths in China each year, accounting for 8.2 percent of all deaths from respiratory diseases.

Ten of Swords

Serious progress being made on the new hospital

fritzelly

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Epicenter of virus outbreak reports 840 new cases and 25 new deaths, raising death toll to 131

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/

Hmmm, and well over a thousand in serious or critical condition. Bit of a jump from yesterday
Seems to be blowing up big time now

hmmm

fritzelly wrote: »

Hmmm, and well over a thousand in serious or critical condition. Bit of a jump from yesterday
Seems to be blowing up big time now

The jump was over a thousand yesterday, so if anything it's getting better as the number of infections detected is decreasing. Whether the figures are right or wrong is a different matter, but let's try and keep the thread reasonably factual?