new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Drumpot

tuxy wrote: »

It depends on how many people injure themselves or die from it.
Just imagine the chaos of a city full of people with this side effect.

givyjoe wrote: »

You'd think until the havoc it would cause on your daily life. Walking down the stairs.. bang.. behind the wheel of a car (shouldn't drive obviously), walking on the street, on an escalator etc. You'd literally need to live your life in a giant bubble football, to avoid busting your head open every five minutes.

That’s true to be fair. I suppose I was thinking of a far worse side effect like ending up with no immune system or going mad (like in “I am legend”).

SeaBreezes

Uk stats:
As of 20 February, a total of 5,549 people have been tested, of which 5,540 were confirmed negative and 9 positive

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public

bodhrandude

Drumpot wrote: »

That’s not the worst side effect in the world...

It is if you drive, fly an aeroplane or operating complex machinery. My friend got the swine flu jab in 2009 in Galway and he has suffered from narcolepsy since that, he his trying to bring a case against his GP too.

fr336

It's interesting there have been a lot of nervous people in this thread (including myself) but a UK forum I frequent has been quite calm all the way. That's changed in the last few days. Hopefully we are all worrying over nothing though, surely we can take comfort at least for now in there being no new cases in Europe. Touches wood...

littlemac1980

For those of you on this thread interested in the stats and numbers coming out of China, it appears that in advance of reporting the +394 cases yesterday China changed the reporting criteria to exclude (once again) positive clinical diagnosis tests in Hubei province.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-20/data-mistrust-grows-as-hubei-changes-virus-count-method-again

dominatinMC

fr336 wrote: »

It's interesting there have been a lot of nervous people in this thread (including myself) but a UK forum I frequent has been quite calm all the way. That's changed in the last few days. Hopefully we are all worrying over nothing though, surely we can take comfort at least for now in there being no new cases in Europe. Touches wood...

I wonder why there is a change in attitude? The UK has has 9 confirmed cases, and nothing since. Appears to be well under control over there..

pc7

fr336 wrote: »

That's changed in the last few days. Hopefully we are all worrying over nothing though, surely we can take comfort at least for now in there being no new cases in Europe. Touches wood...

That’s interesting, I had been more nervous but had felt we maybe had dodged the bullet over last few days. Could it be reporting of the ship? Hopefully South Korea numbers down tomorrow and not up.

bodhrandude

fr336 wrote: »

It's interesting there have been a lot of nervous people in this thread (including myself) but a UK forum I frequent has been quite calm all the way. That's changed in the last few days. Hopefully we are all worrying over nothing though, surely we can take comfort at least for now in there being no new cases in Europe. Touches wood...

Could you link it please would be interested in having a gawk, I'm also following a thread in We Are The Music Makers Forum, a forum dedicated to electronic artists like Aphex Twin and Squarepusher and even the Glastonbury chat forum in Efestivals has a coronavirus thread.

fr336

dominatinMC wrote: »

I wonder why there is a change in attitude? The UK has has 9 confirmed cases, and nothing since. Appears to be well under control over there..

Indeed. But I think the Japan thing has spooked people who may not have been too worried before. Here's the site for those who asked https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2367521/chinese-mystery-coronavirus/p68

Nijmegen

dominatinMC wrote: »

I wonder why there is a change in attitude? The UK has has 9 confirmed cases, and nothing since. Appears to be well under control over there..

Korea and Japan I'd say.

Graces7

Drumpot wrote: »

That’s not the worst side effect in the world...

Do you know what narcolepsy is and does? Normal life is not possible with it. A major illness

wadacrack

The Olympics wont be going ahead , I'd be shocked if they do at this stage

bodhrandude

Lads and Lassies we're more than halfway through this thread already, hopefully there might not be a Coronavirus thread chapter 2 but maybe capitalise the thread title the next time around.

laurah591

bodhrandude wrote: »

Lads and Lassies we're more than halfway through this thread already, hopefully there might not be a Coronavirus thread chapter 2 but maybe capitalise the thread title the next time around.

lol you've ran a sustained campaign for those capitals

gozunda

bodhrandude wrote: »

Could you link it please would be interested in having a gawk, I'm also following a thread in We Are The Music Makers Forum, a forum dedicated to electronic artists like Aphex Twin and Squarepusher and even the Glastonbury chat forum in Efestivals has a coronavirus thread.

The OH would dip in and out of the UK forum Mumsnet - seems it's way ahead of us and is on it's third thread relating to the Corona virus atm...

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3826144-to-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-3?pg=1&order=

wakka12

wadacrack wrote: »

The Olympics wont be going ahead , I'd be shocked if they do at this stage

It was on the news today that London would be capable and willing to host if it falls through in Tokyo so it will still go ahead regardless

rebeve

Drumpot wrote: »

Do you know if it’s true that China has a culture of spitting? If so , I would of thought it’s a reasonable (not racist) question to ask if this has any bearing on the spread.

A few lady friends of mine visited China a few years ago , lovely country but they did notice the men did a lot of spitting .

BanditLuke

wakka12 wrote: »

It was on the news today that London would be capable and willing to host if it falls through in Tokyo so it will still go ahead regardless

I'll eat my hat if that happens. Londoners would be livid given the state of their transport system at present if another Olympics where allowed.

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

It was on the news today that London would be capable and willing to host if it falls through in Tokyo so it will still go ahead regardless

I would imagine japan would seek to postpone if worst came to pass rather than let the uk hold them.

Mic 1972

Daily update from Worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed Cases= 18,997
Recovered / Discharged = 16,867 (89%)
Deaths = 2,130 (11%)

Time to recovery seems longer than time to death, as a result the death rate has gone down to 11%, this is what i was expecting. This rate should continue to go down as recoveries are increasing in bigger numbers than deaths

Total Corona Cases = 75,775
Recovered = 16,867 (22%)
Deaths = 2,130 (3%)

On the other hand, due to a decrease in daily new cases v increased daily deaths, the Death Rate that includes open cases has now gone up to 3%

Snow Garden

Daily update from Snow Garden

Total cases in Ireland: 0
Total deaths to date: 0
Total people stockpiling: 29,300 (up 1,780)

It's very worrying.

wakka12

BBC interview about coronavirus containment
03:30 -"We have to accept it as part of our daily lives now, this isnt the first and it isnt going to be the last"
03:07 - "The virus may stay with us. It may be something that can't be eradicated''
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=fZPc1YYM8xw&feature=emb_title

Mic 1972

Snow Garden wrote: »

Daily update from Snow Garden

Total cases in Ireland: 0
Total deaths to date: 0
Total people stockpiling: 29,300 (up 1,780)

It's very worrying.

Why do you keep trolling this thread? there are so many other threads on this boards , maybe you can find one that you like?

fr336

As someone who lives near London, no thanks you can take the games elsewhere on this occasion guys lol

laurah591

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Daily update from Worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed Cases= 18,997
Recovered / Discharged = 16,867 (89%)
Deaths = 2,130 (11%)

Time to recovery seems longer than time to death, as a result the death rate has gone down to 11%, this is what i was expecting. This rate should continue to go down as recoveries are increasing in bigger numbers than deaths

Total Corona Cases = 75,775
Recovered = 16,867 (22%)
Deaths = 2,130 (3%)

On the other hand, due to a decrease in daily new cases v increased daily deaths, the Death Rate that includes open cases has now gone up to 3%

The numbers id be more concerned about from that site is the drift from 20% to 21% of serious/critical cases versus mild cases. As the health system is completely overwhelmed in Hubei, id be concerned of higher risks of death in this population.

Note im not overly concerned from an Irish perspective rather i have a morbid curiosity in the development of this virus

fritzelly

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Why do you keep trolling this thread? there are so many other threads on this boards , maybe you can find one that you like?

In fairness it was funny

gozunda

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Daily update from Worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url

Closed Cases= 18,997
Recovered / Discharged = 16,867 (89%)
Deaths = 2,130 (11%)

Time to recovery seems longer than time to death, as a result the death rate has gone down to 11%, this is what i was expecting. This rate should continue to go down as recoveries are increasing in bigger numbers than deaths

Total Corona Cases = 75,775
Recovered = 16,867 (22%)
Deaths = 2,130 (3%)

On the other hand, due to a decrease in daily new cases v increased daily deaths, the Death Rate that includes open cases has now gone up to 3%

As of yesterday the Chinese authorities have once again made changes on how cases are recorded btw

The number of new coronavirus cases reported by Hubei province dropped sharply after China changed the way it officially reports the number of infections for the second time in a month, raising questions over the reliability of data from the epicenter of the outbreak.

https://fortune.com/2020/02/20/china-coronavirus-count-hubei-province/

igCorcaigh

laurah591 wrote: »

The numbers id be more concerned about from that site is the drift from 20% to 21% of serious/critical cases versus mild cases. As the health system is completely overwhelmed in Hubei, id be concerned of higher risks of death in this population.

I think that figure had started around 20pc, then went down to14pc before rising again to 21pc

I could be wrong, just going from memory.
Would be nice if we could get a graph over time for this figure.

ceadaoin.

gozunda wrote: »

The OH would dip in and out of the UK forum Mumsnet - seems it's way ahead of us and is on it's third thread relating to the Corona virus atm...

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3826144-to-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-3?pg=1&order=

They have a maximum of 1000 posts before the thread automatically closes. So technically we won

Snow Garden

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Why do you keep trolling this thread? there are so many other threads on this boards , maybe you can find one that you like?

My apologies, I thought ye might like some balance. I'll ban myself from the thread for a while. Enjoy the groupthink

@Snow Garden, don't post in this thread for a week...or until you are infected, whichever comes first

givyjoe

Snow Garden wrote: »

My apologies, I thought ye might like some balance. I'll ban myself from the thread for a while. Enjoy the groupthink

@Snow Garden, don't post in this thread for a week...or until you are infected, whichever comes first

That's a fairly big stretch!

GooglePlus

bodhrandude wrote: »

Lads and Lassies we're more than halfway through this thread already, hopefully there might not be a Coronavirus thread chapter 2 but maybe capitalise the thread title the next time around.

What is the story there, can a moderator not fix that or are they too busy putting out fires elsewhere?

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

What is the story there, can a moderator not fix that or are they too busy putting out fires elsewhere?

Too busy frantically stockpiling loo rolls. And spam.

Sigma101

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I think that figure had started around 20pc, then went down to14pc before rising again to 21pc

I could be wrong, just going from memory.
Would be nice if we could get a graph over time for this figure.

I think the figures from China are just not reliable enough to detect any meaningful changes in trends. For lots of reasons daily changes in figures can distort the facts.

Graces7

Drumpot wrote: »

That’s true to be fair. I suppose I was thinking of a far worse side effect like ending up with no immune system or going mad (like in “I am legend”).

Given the "choice" of the loss of immune system, which is my state because of ME and narcolepsy? Happy as I am...

cameramonkey

laurah591 wrote: »

The numbers id be more concerned about from that site is the drift from 20% to 21% of serious/critical cases versus mild cases. As the health system is completely overwhelmed in Hubei, id be concerned of higher risks of death in this population.

Serious illness seems to kick in sometime after 10 of showing first symptoms.

In the timeline of the illness these numbers make sense. As peak infection rate is reached we should expect these numbers to go up for some time after with a lag of at least 10 days.

Graces7

Snow Garden wrote: »

Daily update from Snow Garden

Total cases in Ireland: 0
Total deaths to date: 0
Total people stockpiling: 29,300 (up 1,780)

It's very worrying.

Yep;just got my grocery delivery with additions! Mostly cat food extras..lol..

Fr_Dougal

Graces7 wrote: »

Given the "choice" of the loss of immune system, which is my state because of ME and narcolepsy? Happy as I am...

If you had “no immune system’ you’d be dead.

wadacrack

laurah591 wrote: »

The numbers id be more concerned about from that site is the drift from 20% to 21% of serious/critical cases versus mild cases. As the health system is completely overwhelmed in Hubei, id be concerned of higher risks of death in this population.

Note im not overly concerned from an Irish perspective rather i have a morbid curiosity in the development of this virus

The virus is not containable it seems. Would expect WHO to have the global risk to very high withing the next 2 weeks. We should be prepared. I would hope that the spread wouldn't be too aggressive if correct measures are in place , which should help make it more manageable as hopefully we learn more about treatment etc

padjocollins

littlemac1980 wrote: »

For those of you on this thread interested in the stats and numbers coming out of China, it appears that in advance of reporting the +394 cases yesterday China changed the reporting criteria to exclude (once again) positive clinical diagnosis tests in Hubei province.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-20/data-mistrust-grows-as-hubei-changes-virus-count-method-again

f*ck , f*ck , f*ck ,f*ck

I thought china had somehow turned it around . feck . Lies and stats. we're fecked

Drumpot

Graces7 wrote: »

Given the "choice" of the loss of immune system, which is my state because of ME and narcolepsy? Happy as I am...

I thought ME was more to do with Chronic fatigue ? (no fun as I have a client who has it).

Although I have seen about how lack of sleep (as a result of ME) can effect your immune system. Interesting as I have suffered sleeping issues myself and did see a link on youtube from a doctor suggesting that good sleep can help people build up their immune system against the Coronavirus.

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

If you had “no immune system’ you’d be dead.

That's what I would of thought, with no immune system you would literally have to live in a bubble or isolation building of sorts ? Maybe having a poor immune system is the same ?!

fr336

WHO has developed a system of identifying where the world stands with regard to pandemic flu. The system has six phases:

Phase 1 -- No new influenza virus has been found in people or animals.

Phase 2 -- New virus has appeared in animals, but no human cases.

Phase 3 -- A new strain of animal influenza virus infects humans, but there have not been human-to-human infections.

Phase 4 -- The new virus passes from person to person, but transmission is limited and confined to a certain location.

Phase 5 -- There is frequent transmission of the virus between people in a particular place, but it hasn't spread to the rest of the world.

Phase 6 -- Pandemic. The virus is widespread worldwide.

WebMD

igCorcaigh

fr336 wrote: »

WHO has developed a system of identifying where the world stands with regard to pandemic flu. The system has six phases:

Phase 1 -- No new influenza virus has been found in people or animals.

Phase 2 -- New virus has appeared in animals, but no human cases.

Phase 3 -- A new strain of animal influenza virus infects humans, but there have not been human-to-human infections.

Phase 4 -- The new virus passes from person to person, but transmission is limited and confined to a certain location.

Phase 5 -- There is frequent transmission of the virus between people in a particular place, but it hasn't spread to the rest of the world.

Phase 6 -- Pandemic. The virus is widespread worldwide.

WebMD

Thanks, I was about to search for the criteria for declaring a pandemic.

Does this also apply to non-influenza outbreaks?

We seem to be somewhere between 5 and 6.

fritzelly

WHO summary
No proven effective treatment for coronavirus
Asked about the cruise ship was it to prevent spread in Japan - they were kept on the ship to contain the virus, kinda brushed over the 2 deaths saying the CFR is 2% so to be expected

Martina1991

ohnonotgmail wrote:

every new disease just comes out of nowhere if you want to put it that way

There's no limit to the amount of bacteria and viruses that are out there. They exist in humans, animals and plants. We only take notice when they cause disease.

Pathogens that can cause disease in humans may be normal for animals, birds or reptiles can cause havoc for us.
The plague, Swine flu, Avian flu, HIV as examples.

Believing this was manmade is still very much conspiracy theory stuff.

saabsaab

I see that it has been declared 'notifiable' today.

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

I see that it has been declared 'notifiable' today.

What does that mean?

cnocbui

Snow Garden wrote: »

Great news (not a single like)

Probably because It has been repeated several times that the earliest a vaccine could be expected is about this time next year, with the WHO saying 18 months. A Quensland group thinks perhaps it could be as little as six months.

New 'molecular clamp' technology developed by Queensland scientists could prove crucial in developing coronavirus vaccine
By Lara Pearce
12:52pm Jan 24, 2020
A breakthrough technology developed by Australian researchers could play a crucial role in the race to develop a vaccine against the rapidly spreading coronavirus.
Researchers from the University of Queensland hope their new technology could see a vaccine against the deadly disease rolled out worldwide in as little as six months.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-vaccine-development-new-technoligy-university-of-queensland/08c48879-42e7-45fd-a707-e7a0298ce4fb

Yes, anything pertaining to a potential vaccine is great news, but it's not immediately relevant and wont be for some time, at the earliest and will play nor part whatsoever in the topic that interests most people, which is monitoring the spread of Covid-19 in the here and now.

igCorcaigh

Yes, so the containment measures currently undertaken are aimed at slowing this thing down, to buy us time.

On the vaccine issue though, I've read reports that immunity from exposure to the virus may not last long, and subsequent reinfection may actually be worse?

Does that mean that any vaccine may be useless?

ardinn

You can get the virus multiple times, I saw a report somewhere that the 2nd time your pretty much dead as a dodo.