new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Candamir

laurah591 wrote: »

NCHDs?

Non Consultant Hospital Doctors.

RebelButtMunch

Hector Savage wrote: »

Prepared for what ?
You think supply lines will completely collapse ?
80% of the cases are mild ffs....

I can see both sides of this. If you get it without complications you'll be grand. If you get complications you'll could end up in a health system that could be overwhelmed.

laurah591

Dam 2nd death in SK now being reported

YFlyer

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah exactly. What are the chances?! With the numbers they're reporting it seems crazy that a tourist would pick it up. A tourist going to hubei sure but Iran...

Infected toilet at an international airport.

Martina1991

fritzelly wrote:

So people not trained to read x rays are giving us the all clear

The article said "x-rays on patients exhibiting coronavirus symptoms were carried out by doctors rather than radiographers at Cork University Hospital (CUH)".

That sounds crazy to me. How would they expect NCHDs to use equipment they have nor not been trained to operate. It's dangerous.

wakka12

2nd death in South Korea

Citizens of two towns outside Milan advised to stay indoors and avoid social contact

laurah591

laurah591 wrote: »

Dam 2nd death in SK now being reported

And South Korea has among the world’s best medical care, with highest survivorship for several diseases. If you can be cured or treated, it’s likely to be here.

However I was reading that a certain religious sect is the seat of many infections. Sensible people will alter how they practice religion, and sensible pastors will enable best precautions, but some ultra stick-to-the-book practices will no doubt be one of the big factor spreading disease. My mother had old school Catholic faith but she always believed in abstaining from the sign of the peace handshake and attending Mass if there was an possibility of spreading infection if she had a cough etc., and indeed if there was known to be a particularly bad virus doing the rounds she fully believed in avoiding Mass.

wakka12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And South Korea has among the world’s best medical care, with highest survivorship for several diseases. If you can be cured or treated, it’s likely to be here.

However I was reading that a certain religious sect is the seat of many infections. Sensible people will alter how they practice religion, and sensible pastors will enable best precautions, but some ultra stick-to-the-book practices will no doubt be one of the big factor spreading disease. My mother had old school Catholic faith but she always believed in abstaining from the sign of the peace handshake and attending Mass if there was an possibility of spreading infection if she had a cough etc., and indeed if there was known to be a particularly bad virus doing the rounds she fully believed in avoiding Mass.

All branches of that church have now been ordered to close across South Korea

dominatinMC

givyjoe wrote: »

That doesn't answer the question of why it's locked down. There weren't thousands of cases before it was acknowledged or even locked down. (Well tens anyway)

Why can't you see it? What basis do you have for your prediction? There is absolutey no reason why it won't happen here. It's highly contagious and as we know has a long incubation period and doctors still aren't sure of all of the transmission methods. A perfect recipe for outbreaks to be repeated worldwide. The only difference so far is that it hasn't spread quite as rapidly. haven't the CDC in the USA already pretty much admitted they're just trying to slow it down? It's inevitable unfortunately.

"quite as rapidly" - that's putting it mildly. Outside of China (and maybe South Korea and Iran) the virus appears to be spreading very slowly and seems to be well under control. I don't know if that's due to undiagnosed cases or not, but the stats are showing that the rate of infection is nowhere near Wuhan - thankfully!

"It's inevitable unfortunately" - what exactly is inevitable? As alluded to above, outside of China (and possibly South Korea and Iran), reported cases are quite low. I know Japan has a large amount, but most of these originate from the ship. Most other countries have isolated cases, which appear benign - the UK for example. I don't have my head buried in the sand, but I'd like to think I'm rational about this situation and approach with caution rather than alarm. I'd be optimistic that countries can learn from the spread in China and be proactive about halting/containing the spread - which appears to be the case so far in a lot of countries. In this regard, I'm not sure it is "inevitable" as you put it.

Furthermore, I don't mean to single you out, but there are a lot of posters on here who seem to think likewise, that it will spread out-of-control across the world. Maybe it is some kind of schadenfreude, or that they want to be proved right in their doomsday prediction, but a lot of posters said last week that "the next week will tell alot about this virus" and guess what, here we are a week later and it doesn't appear to have escalated in the exponential manner predicted..

Hector Savage

time to unsubscribe to this thread me thinks ... but good post @dominatinMC .... I'll leave on a note of optimism

Sigma101

wakka12 wrote: »

Citizens of two towns outside Milan advised to stay indoors and avoid social contact

Confirmed in this article.
Two towns near Piacenza northern Italy effectively in lockdown. Residents(ca. 20,000) have been advised to stay at home, avoid contact with others, and not turn up at hospital if they fell unwell. There are also indications that the latest patient may have been exposed to the virus 16 to 18 days before he developed symptoms ( considerably more than the standard 14 day quarantine period).

4068ac1elhodqr

Good News: 18k recovered

Bad News:
1). "We should not be relaxed. The figure may go up again," said Zhao Jianping, who is leading an expert team working to contain the outbreak in Hubei.
He said there were cases where recovered patients showed traces of the virus through nucleic acid tests.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12310734
There were also results in Canada where swabs taken from two people who had recovered revealed they still had traces of the virus, reports news.com.au.

2). S.Kor = 204 / Jap = 97 / Singp = 85 / Irn = 13(new)

3). Couple on a plane were negative at start of flight, when landed and re-checked showed positive.

4). Chinese prisons having outbreaks

5). Locust plague (360 billion approx) is heading towards China, after ravaging the MEast, India & Pakistan. Chinese authorities have dispatched the 100,000 birds (mostly ducks) to its Xinjiang border in the far west of the country, where it meets Pakistan and India as the locusts continue to swarm eastward. Lets hope the birds don't catch a flu, then pass it on to the billions of flying insects. Repent folks.

the butcher

- Placing the R value between 2 and 3 means this has a good while to play out (SARS was 8 months, we are only 3 months in)
- Hopefully all the lockdowns are not futile.
- Concerns about countries not well equipped to deal with this which leads to build up of cases that have not been diagnosed in the background leading to further spread. Unknown quantity at the moment.
- Saying it's not containable so don't bother would be a terrible mistake if rebound of infection is a killer from what research is pointing towards.
- This is not something we want becoming seasonal.
- The H1N1 virus has been a regular human flu virus since 2009 and continues to circulate seasonally worldwide.

givyjoe

dominatinMC wrote: »

"quite as rapidly" - that's putting it mildly. Outside of China (and maybe South Korea and Iran) the virus appears to be spreading very slowly and seems to be well under control. I don't know if that's due to undiagnosed cases or not, but the stats are showing that the rate of infection is nowhere near Wuhan - thankfully!

"It's inevitable unfortunately" - what exactly is inevitable? As alluded to above, outside of China (and possibly South Korea and Iran), reported cases are quite low. I know Japan has a large amount, but most of these originate from the ship. Most other countries have isolated cases, which appear benign - the UK for example. I don't have my head buried in the sand, but I'd like to think I'm rational about this situation and approach with caution rather than alarm. I'd be optimistic that countries can learn from the spread in China and be proactive about halting/containing the spread - which appears to be the case so far in a lot of countries. In this regard, I'm not sure it is "inevitable" as you put it.

Furthermore, I don't mean to single you out, but there are a lot of posters on here who seem to think likewise, that it will spread out-of-control across the world. Maybe it is some kind of schadenfreude, or that they want to be proved right in their doomsday prediction, but a lot of posters said last week that "the next week will tell alot about this virus" and guess what, here we are a week later and it doesn't appear to have escalated in the exponential manner predicted..

Sorry, but you're not being rational and you most certainly are burying your head in the sand. Just look at how quickly it's now spreading in South Korea, and yes it's clearly arguable that the slow rate is down to it not being picked up, look at the Iran. A number of people here previously theorised this, the first we would see of it in some countries was people showing up dead in hospitals with it.

Optimism nor pescismism has no place in the discussion, logic does.

A pandemic is clearly inevitable at this point. How is it going to be stopped exactly?! It's fantastic that it hasn't spread as quickly as it did in Wuhan, but it IS spreading.

Quotes from the CDC this week:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/19/hospitals-across-the-us-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-global-pandemic.html continue to cross your fingers, but logically, i see nothing to suggest that this isn't going to spread into a pandemic.

givyjoe

Hector Savage wrote: »

time to unsubscribe to this thread me thinks ... but good post @dominatinMC .... I'll leave on a note of optimism

You're gonna need a bigger bag of sand to stick your head in.

ohnonotgmail

givyjoe wrote: »

Sorry, but you're not being rational and you most certainly are burying your head in the sand. Just look at how quickly it's now spreading in South Korea, and yes it's clearly arguable that the slow rate is down to it not being picked up, look at the Iran. A number of people here previously theorised this, the first we would see of it in some countries was people showing up dead in hospitals with it.

Optimism has or pescismism has no place in the discussion, logic does.

A pandemic is clearly inevitable at this point. How is it going to be stopped exactly?! It's fantastic that it hasn't spread as quickly as it did in Wuhan, but it IS spreading.

Quotes from the CDC this week:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/19/hospitals-across-the-us-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-global-pandemic.html continue to cross your fingers, but logically, i see nothing to suggest that this isn't going to spread into a pandemic.

how many of the cases in SK are not from that cult?

givyjoe

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

how many of the cases in SK are not from that cult?

Would you care to go and find out? Any explanation for the cases in Iran?

wakka12

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

how many of the cases in SK are not from that cult?

About 50
WHO director said yesterday that while the numbers in SK are large it is still containable because the cause of the infections are known

The situation is Japan and Iran is actually more worrying because there is no known link to any existing infected people in a lot of cases

ohnonotgmail

wakka12 wrote: »

About 50
WHO director said yesterday that while the numbers in SK are large it is still containable because the cause of the infections are known

so still mostly clustered in that cult. Of the 52 new cases today 39 were from that cult.

timmyntc

The HSE will only test for coronavirus if you have travelled into the country from an affected region or if you've been in contact with a confirmed carrier.

SO there could easily be people infected already in Ireland that we don't know about. All it takes is one person to spread it, and then all the other secondary infections risk not even getting diagnosed!

givyjoe

timmyntc wrote: »

The HSE will only test for coronavirus if you have travelled into the country from an affected region or if you've been in contact with a confirmed carrier.

SO there could easily be people infected already in Ireland that we don't know about. All it takes is one person to spread it, and then all the other secondary infections risk not even getting diagnosed!

Precisely this. And we will only know about it when someone shows up in hospital critically ill.

tara73

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Tara where are you?

Amid the continued spread of the COVID-19 virus,... there's rising speculation the virus could have originated from a government laboratory in Wuhan rather than the widely-held belief that it emerged from the city's Huanan seafood markets.
Citing a report published by Chinese scientists,... a Chinese-language newspaper published in Hong Kong, Ming Pao, and the British daily, The Mirror explained Sunday that the Wuhan Center for Disease Control, or WHCDC, could have spawned the contagion in Hubei Province.
According to the report penned by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao of the South China University of Technology,... the research lab, which is only 280 meters away from the Huanan seafood market,... kept disease-ridden animals including more than 600 bats.
It stated that while it's plausible the virus was leaked from the lab and contaminated initial patients in this epidemic,... more solid evidence is required through future study


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI

thanks for that. Think I'm defo not the only one who considers this a big possibility...

wakka12

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230831690496520192
https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1230830052872507393?s=21

3 more cases in Italy

Drumpot

tara73 wrote: »

thanks for that. Think I'm defo not the only one who considers this a big possibility...

I think it’s more a case that everybody accepts it’s plausible/possible but it’s not really productive to make insinuations without credible evidence. I think it’s fair to ask the question but I’m not sure it’s helpful to dwell on the possibility while we have no way of knowing.

Ficheall

timmyntc wrote: »

The HSE will only test for coronavirus if you have travelled into the country from an affected region or if you've been in contact with a confirmed carrier

Does this mean they did test the two people who came back from the infected boat?

silverharp

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

5). Locust plague (360 billion approx) is heading towards China, after ravaging the MEast, India & Pakistan. Chinese authorities have dispatched the 100,000 birds (mostly ducks) to its Xinjiang border in the far west of the country, where it meets Pakistan and India as the locusts continue to swarm eastward. Lets hope the birds don't catch a flu, then pass it on to the billions of flying insects. Repent folks.

I have faith in their Duck Army, that's the kind of biological warfare I can get behind, yep yes siree , tasty, tasty ducks :pac:

Indestructable

How did Iran get so bad so quickly, it has to have been there for weeks for all those cities to have cases.

wakka12

Indestructable wrote: »

How did Iran get so bad so quickly, it has to have been there for weeks for all those cities to have cases.

I would imagine it has been circulating in a lot of the developing world undetected, most African governments can't even test for coronavirus never mind screen or contain it

timmyntc

Ficheall wrote: »

Does this mean they did test the two people who came back from the infected boat?

Knowing HSE, probably not.
I'd imagine they only test those with severe symptoms, so as to minimise their workload exposure

SeaBreezes

First case reported in Lebanon.

Indestructable

wakka12 wrote: »

I would imagine it has been circulating in a lot of the developing world undetected, most African governments can't even test for coronavirus never mind screen or contain it

Yeah, makes sense. I see Lebanon has reported a case also. I guess the ability to test is rolling out to poorer nations, god help those in India if it takes hold there.

Fr_Dougal

Ficheall wrote: »

Does this mean they did test the two people who came back from the infected boat?

No, apparently they didn’t test them.

tara73

Drumpot wrote: »

I think it’s more a case that everybody accepts it’s plausible/possible but it’s not really productive to make insinuations without credible evidence. I think it’s fair to ask the question but I’m not sure it’s helpful to dwell on the possibility while we have no way of knowing.

the whole thread here is dwelling on possibilities because everything is in the unknown, so I might dwell on this one!

megatron989

[quote="dominatinMC;112603451"I'd be optimistic that countries can learn from the spread in China and be proactive about halting/containing the spread
[/quote]

You mean by using lockdowns etc to slow or hopefully stop any further spread? In which case I'd be really glad of a few extra supplies in the house and not need to go all Lord of the flys at my local lidl with the rest of the unprepared on day one 15 minutes after rte announce emergency measures.
Again I must ask, to anyone who is so adamant that no one should bother preparing, what's the harm?

Drumpot

tara73 wrote: »

the whole thread here is dwelling on possibilities because everything is in the unknown, so I might dwell on this one!

By all means Dwell away.

The approach I’m taking is to try to limit my dwelling to things I can realistically control/mitigate. Whether China made a boo boo by releasing the virus changes nothing for me personally.

silverharp

SeaBreezes wrote: »

First case reported in Lebanon.

the person had been in Iran apparently

tara73

Drumpot wrote: »

By all means Dwell away.

The approach I’m taking is to try to limit my dwelling to things I can realistically control/mitigate. Whether China made a boo boo by releasing the virus changes nothing for me personally.

yes, do your approach, I do mine so guess what, I'm not interested what changes for you personally or not, so please leave it be!

s7ryf3925pivug

Yeah every poor or authoritarian state is a potential or actual incubator for this thing. A real rain is coming.

Mic 1972

dominatinMC wrote: »

"quite as rapidly" - that's putting it mildly. Outside of China (and maybe South Korea and Iran) the virus appears to be spreading very slowly and seems to be well under control. I don't know if that's due to undiagnosed cases or not, but the stats are showing that the rate of infection is nowhere near Wuhan - thankfully!

"It's inevitable unfortunately" - what exactly is inevitable? As alluded to above, outside of China (and possibly South Korea and Iran), reported cases are quite low. I know Japan has a large amount, but most of these originate from the ship. Most other countries have isolated cases, which appear benign - the UK for example. I don't have my head buried in the sand, but I'd like to think I'm rational about this situation and approach with caution rather than alarm. I'd be optimistic that countries can learn from the spread in China and be proactive about halting/containing the spread - which appears to be the case so far in a lot of countries. In this regard, I'm not sure it is "inevitable" as you put it.

Furthermore, I don't mean to single you out, but there are a lot of posters on here who seem to think likewise, that it will spread out-of-control across the world. Maybe it is some kind of schadenfreude, or that they want to be proved right in their doomsday prediction, but a lot of posters said last week that "the next week will tell alot about this virus" and guess what, here we are a week later and it doesn't appear to have escalated in the exponential manner predicted..

You can see how it's spreading outside China at the link below. As expected it started slow and now it's picking up pace
Scroll down to Total Cases Outsde China


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Drumpot

tara73 wrote: »

yes, do your approach, I do mine so guess what, I'm not interested what changes for you personally or not, so please leave it be!

I’m not sure how anything I have said warrants such an obnoxious/defensive reply. What exactly do you want to leave be?

I was only sharing what way I’m interpreting the potential reason as to how this started and confirming that most people wouldn’t discount an accident from the virus lab.

Call Me Jimmy

As I was saying last week, people were happy to say then that it hadn't spread to Africa, the Middle East and South America even without knowing anything about their testing capabilities or how many the countries even tested. Considering many of the countries involved this was wildly optimistic.

The counter said zero cases on that continent, so everything is fine. But many African countries only got the ability to test the other day. Iran didn't announce they had cases until they had 2 deaths, am I right? That sort of spreading going on seemingly without knowing is how you get a proper situation.

Ads By Google hasn't had work for weeks because of what? one or two cases in a neighboring town? This precedent has been set by China and others and as long as we don't know enough about the virus (delayed by China's opacity) we will see this reaction anywhere a couple of cases pop up.

fritzelly

Busy day for BNO I see

Mic 1972

Poorer countries are not the only ones that may have hundreds of undetected cases walking around.
The only detected cases in Europe are those who came back from China and tested positive or people who rushed to hospital in severe conditions. No one else is being tested, there could be hundreds of people at this point around our cities with mild symptoms

tillyfilly

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Poorer countries are not the only ones that may have hundreds of undetected cases walking around.
The only detected cases in Europe are those who came back from China and tested positive or people who rushed to hospital in severe conditions. No one else is being tested, there could be hundreds of people at this point around our cities with mild symptoms

You can’t say it’s not the end of the world if they don’t get this sorted, extreme thinking and behaviour and attitudes are required, it’s the end of the world for some people

BlaktainPicard

Has the world ended yet ?
No, ok Iĺl check back in 2 weeks

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230831690496520192

18 confirmed cases in Iran, 4 dead.

Also following the BNO tweets Italy has 6 new confirmed cases today bringing total to 9 there.

Mic 1972

tillyfilly wrote: »

You can’t say it’s not the end of the world if they don’t get this sorted, extreme thinking and behaviour and attitudes are required, it’s the end of the world for some people

The thing is, even in the worst possible scenario, 80% of people have mild symptoms, they would survive with little impact on their health
This should be enough to keep the world going

BlaktainPicard

BlaktainPicard wrote: »

Has the world ended yet ?
No, ok Iĺl check back in 2 weeks

In 2 weeks it'll be too late! Come back in a week.

Mic 1972

Italy is taking strong measures, 3 small cities are now on lock down, almost 40K people in total. Anybody who traveled in the area in the last 14 days is required to self quarantine too
I hope Ireland will be able to replicate this type of approach when the virus gets here

BanditLuke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Italy is taking strong measures, 3 small cities are now on lock down, almost 40K people in total. Anybody who traveled in the area in the last 14 days is required to self quarantine too
I hope Ireland will be able to replicate this type of approach when the virus gets here

:pac: Yeah right. We can't even stop a few travellers from racing horses down a motorway at rush hour.