new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

tara73

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

No chance of ever getting bat-crazy soup in Ireland, you might get served bits of mouse tail over in UHG however.
https://www.rte.ie/news/connacht/2020/0221/1116735-university-hospital-galway/

soo funny..:D

tuxy

givyjoe wrote: »

Keep sticking your head in the sand, by all means but do me a favour and don't post completely false claims regarding what I've posted. Keep your insults to yourself.

Keeping an active interest in this as it unfolds while trying to separating the wheat from the chaff is no sticking ones head in the sand.

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

Yes and I didn't comment on those people did I?

You certainly aren't 1 of them though.

Several times you have completely misrepresented the stats.

I haven't misinterpreted stats at all. I know quite well how to look at the numbers, plus the stats i'm reporting here are officially published

givyjoe

tuxy wrote: »

Keeping an active interest in this as it unfolds while trying to separating the wheat from the chaff is no sticking ones head in the sand.

Blankety dismissing a massive platform most certainly is.

SeaBreezes

tuxy wrote: »

I understand the frustration over lack of accurate information on covid 19.
But I don't think there is a need to post inaccurate scaremongering. There are so many twitter accounts feeding off of peoples fears and these account know people will react without even doing a simple google on these erroneous information posts.
It's really impacting the signal to noise ratio which inhibits the reporting of real, important information.

I would respectfully point out that WE ARE randomers on the Internet :-)
If you want to only read facts, your in the wrong place.

I would suggest the lancet, WHO websites..

tuxy

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I haven't misinterpreted stats at all. I know quite well how to look at the numbers, plus the stats i'm reporting here are officially published

It's true, you have not.
But I think posting that the death rate is 20% without explaining about the lag on recovery time over death time is slightly disingenuous.

Perhaps you think that it's so obvious it does not need explaining but if you had read posts from many others I think it's clear that they do/did not understand this.

tuxy

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I would respectfully point out that WE ARE randomers on the Internet :-)
If you want to only read facts, your in the wrong place.

I would suggest the lancet, WHO websites..

Everyone is capable of posting their source. If you go to the trouble of looking up the information why no share it with everyone else.

And it's not everything that needs a source, just the info that conflicts with official sources and is not easy to find on google. Posting such these is of great benefit.

bodhrandude

A rise in racism in the US too against Asians as well the paranoia and protests in the Ukraine I posted last night. I'm not a mad fan of CNN but this is quite worrying and becoming almost fascist like.

Mic 1972

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I would respectfully point out that WE ARE randomers on the Internet :-)

You are for sure,

Other people are linking sources and using real data

SeaBreezes

6 Italians all about 40, in serious condition.
Person they THINK they got infection from, still testing negative..

https://mobile.twitter.com/V2019N/status/1230885966581125120

SeaBreezes

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You are for sure,

Other people are linking sources and using real data

Welcome to the internet :-)

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You are for sure,

Other people are linking sources and using real data

Wrongly.

bodhrandude

SeaBreezes wrote: »

6 Italians all about 40, in serious condition.
Person they THINK they got infection from, still testing negative..

https://mobile.twitter.com/V2019N/status/1230885966581125120

Jeez this virus is confusing as fcuk.

Knex*

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The thing is, even in the worst possible scenario, 80% of people have mild symptoms, they would survive with little impact on their health
This should be enough to keep the world going

Is that potentially a little bit of the problem?

Most people think they have to be in a near critical condition to have coronavirus, so many with minor symptoms will just convince themselves they have a cold.

Its a case of, "I can't have it. I'm not dying.", and spreading it even further.

Knex.

Knex. wrote: »

Is that potentially a little bit of the problem?

Most people think they have to be in a near critical condition to have coronavirus, so many with minor symptoms will just convince themselves they have a cold.

Its a case of, "I can't have it. I'm not dying.", and spreading it even further.

It's flu season. Not sure how well it would work if the millions who get it each year either self-quarantined or had forced quarantine.

Mic 1972

Italy only yesterday released 55 people from quarantine that were flown back from Wuhan, they tested negative so after just 2 weeks they are now out

Call Me Jimmy

bodhrandude wrote: »

A rise in racism in the US too against Asians as well the paranoia and protests in the Ukraine I posted last night. I'm not a mad fan of CNN but this is quite worrying and becoming almost fascist like.

Nothing fascist about a crazy person attacking someone in a subway station or similar (from a couple weeks ago). Yea some ignorant people give chinese people crap for it, but they'd be giving some other person crap over something else. It's a narrative that the CCP always trot out 'you are racist against chinese' 'stop the racist travel ban', as well as just kicking out Guardian journalists for writing an article that wasn't full of praise on racist grounds.

I just think it's a tiny issue in the scheme of things. And once this spreads around the world and it's just as likely for anyone else of having the virus as a chinese person, people won't be focused on them.

bodhrandude

Knex. wrote: »

Is that potentially a little bit of the problem?

Most people think they have to be in a near critical condition to have coronavirus, so many with minor symptoms will just convince themselves they have a cold.

Its a case of, "I can't have it. I'm not dying.", and spreading it even further.

^ ^ ^ ^
This, very true. :eek:

fritzelly

Another 8 confirmed in Italy - that's 14 today

wakka12

8 new cases in Italy, including 2 in a different region near Venice. Total 17 now in the country

WHO officials say coronavirus outbreak in Iran is ‘very worrisome’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/who-officials-say-coronavirus-outbreak-in-iran-is-very-worrisome.html

Knex*

Deleted User wrote: »

It's flu season. Not sure how well it would work if the millions who get it each year either self-quarantined or had forced quarantine.

Yeah, agreed. I don't think it's remotely a fair expectation to think people with mild symptoms will quarantine themselves.

Which makes me think that's its hard to imagine this not spreading globally.

Mic 1972

Knex. wrote: »

Yeah, agreed. I don't think it's remotely a fair expectation to think people with mild symptoms will quarantine themselves.

Which makes me think that's its hard to imagine this not spreading globally.

Still, with such emergency i dont see why people with mild flue symptoms couldn't stay home, possibly work from home if they can for a couple of weeks

Sigma101

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO officials say coronavirus outbreak in Iran is ‘very worrisome’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/who-officials-say-coronavirus-outbreak-in-iran-is-very-worrisome.html

There's a fair deal of pessimism in the words of the DG of the WHO:

World health officials still have a chance to contain the virus, he said, but it’s getting less likely by the day.

“The window of opportunity is still there, but our window of opportunity is narrowing,” he said. “We need to act quickly before it closes completely.” He also cautioned: “This outbreak could still go in any direction.”

Unearthly

16 new cases in Italy today? What's going on there. Very worrying

Graces7

megatron989 wrote: »

You mean by using lockdowns etc to slow or hopefully stop any further spread? In which case I'd be really glad of a few extra supplies in the house and not need to go all Lord of the flys at my local lidl with the rest of the unprepared on day one 15 minutes after rte announce emergency measures.

Again I must ask, to anyone who is so adamant that no one should bother preparing, what's the harm?

I think it is fear; that if they do it it will be needed? And when I read some of the survivalist stuff I understand the idea of extreme alarmism.

But it is just common sense as you so rightly say

Graces7

Knex. wrote: »

Yeah, agreed. I don't think it's remotely a fair expectation to think people with mild symptoms will quarantine themselves.

Which makes me think that's its hard to imagine this not spreading globally.

Why not? it is widely known now surely.

Cody montana

Unearthly wrote: »

16 new cases in Italy today? What's going on there. Very worrying

Why is it very worrying?

wakka12

Cody montana wrote: »

Why is it very worrying?

That many cases in a short time and in different regions would imply sustained h2h transmission, once it starts its hard to stop

And given that a 1/3 of them are suffering severe complications would also probably mean there are significantly more cases as yet unknown as the virus only seems to cause complications in 4-10% of people who catch it

givyjoe

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Still, with such emergency i dont see why people with mild flue symptoms couldn't stay home, possibly work from home if they can for a couple of weeks

Many people won't be paid while sick, and if they only have mild symptoms won't think they have it or can't afford to care.

SeaBreezes

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Still, with such emergency i dont see why people with mild flue symptoms couldn't stay home, possibly work from home if they can for a couple of weeks

By the time you have symptoms you have been incubating it for anywhere from 3 days to 3 weeks.. and infecting everyone ..

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

That many cases in a short time and in different regions would imply sustained h2h transmission, once it starts its hard to stop

And given that a 1/3 of them are suffering severe complications would also probably mean there are significantly more cases as yet unknown as the virus only seems to cause complications in 4-10% of people who catch it

Do we know how many of the Italian cases are medical staff?

rossie1977

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Still, with such emergency i dont see why people with mild flue symptoms couldn't stay home, possibly work from home if they can for a couple of weeks

Problem is some people have no symptoms at all so might be spreading it unknowingly.

This chap tested positive but never developed symptoms. He also claims quarantine on cruise was a joke

Mic 1972

Unearthly wrote: »

16 new cases in Italy today? What's going on there. Very worrying

The number of cases increases when more people get tested. We would never have known about these additional people if it wasn't for the one guy who got to hospital in critical conditions yesterday and all the people who got in contact with him in the last 2 weeks were called for urgent test. All new cases hsve mild to no symptoms
That gives you an idea of how many infected people are out there at the moment that we don't know about
As for the guy in severe conditions, he is 38 and perfectly fit. In the last few days before falling ill he was playing football with friends

wakka12

Big change in apparent level of concern of American CDC. They seemed almost apathetic just days ago.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230907665846611973?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1230907665846611973&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Ff7eh81%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dfalse

SusanC10

laurah591 wrote: »

Do we know how many of the Italian cases are medical staff?

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL8N2AL5HI

Above Article says 5 Health Workers.

BanditLuke

We are starting to see a realization of what the planet is facing. Already industry is grinding to a standstill in certain sectors and more will follow. Even the head in the sand brigades are asking questions

BanditLuke

wakka12 wrote: »

Big change in apparent level of concern of American CDC. They seemed almost apathetic just days ago.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230907665846611973?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1230907665846611973&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Ff7eh81%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dfalse

#onlytheflu

auspicious

Just an aside.....
Sligo General have closed doors to visitors to protect the infirm. Vomiting bug and diarrhoea very active in wider area ( I heard salmonella mentioned by a nurse ).
An acquaintance went there in early January with his wife for a cataract assessment. The next day he had the flu, first time in 28 years. And the wife got a bout of pneumonia 3 days later.

So if covid19 does make it here don't flock to the hospitals with mild symptoms.

Minime2.5

Is it true that if you get and recover from it you can get it again and if that happens your fecked

kenmc

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

Im due to head to rome on March 1st. Do you think I'd be ok or should I take the tin foil hate off

Could have repercussions for us in a couple weekends, Italy playing Ireland in Dublin 7th march, am sure plenty of Italian fans will travel over, the northern part of Italy being the "hotbed" of rugby over there, so plenty of those fans likely to come from there.

Mic 1972

Minime2.5 wrote: »

Is it true that if you get and recover from it you can get it again and if that happens your fecked

if you require intensive care on your first instance with the virus you are more likely to have a weak immune system afterward. People in critical conditions spend weeks in hospital before being able to leave
But you have it easy from the start you may be grand the second time too

tuxy

Minime2.5 wrote: »

Is it true that if you get and recover from it you can get it again and if that happens your fecked

It is true that you can get it a few months later if the virus mutates.
I'd like to emphasise "IF" as there are no evidence that it has yet. Mutations take time so we will not know the answer to this for several months at the earliest.

Mic 1972

kenmc wrote: »

Could have repercussions for us in a couple weekends, Italy playing Ireland in Dublin 7th march, am sure plenty of Italian fans will travel over, the northern part of Italy being the "hotbed" of rugby over there, so plenty of those fans likely to come from there.

People are flying to/from Italy every day, Rome and Milan in particular. A week ago or so a couple was tested positive in Taiwan after spending 2 weeks in Italy, they traveled to the usual places Milan/Verona/Florence/Rome before falling ill. They are now in Taiwan

igCorcaigh

Minime2.5 wrote: »

Is it true that if you get and recover from it you can get it again and if that happens your fecked

I've heard of this but not sure. It's still an open question until the data comes in and is published.

I hope not though, it would dash hopes of a vaccine.

SeaBreezes

Minime2.5 wrote: »

Is it true that if you get and recover from it you can get it again and if that happens your fecked

Rumours are based on this Taiwan News article...
Completely unverifiable.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

BloodBath

Apologies to others for this post but it has to be done.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I haven't misinterpreted stats at all. I know quite well how to look at the numbers, plus the stats i'm reporting here are officially published

Ok you're gonna make me do this again. I've done it several times already and you just ignored it. Maybe you want to try and offer a rebuttal this time.

Originally Posted by Gynoid
It was a joke Obviously not a great one.
But now you are telling me 15% of us are all gonna die......AAaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

Mic 1972 wrote: »

more likely 20% so far

You say this isn't misrepresenting stats?

I'll stick this here too as it's important. It relates to the h1n1 but also applies to covid.

The global case fatality ratio looks only to the official tally[28] of cases confirmed by the WHO. It takes no account of other cases, such as those appearing in press reports. Nor does it reflect any estimate of the global extent of mild, asymptomatic,[29] or other cases which are undiagnosed, unreported by national governments to the WHO, or for any reason cannot be confirmed by the WHO. While the WHO's case count is clearly the most authoritative, these unavoidable limitations result in an unknown number of cases being omitted from it.

Unconfirmed cases have a potentially huge impact on the case fatality ratio. This mathematical impact is well understood by epidemiologists, and is easy to see in theory. For example, if for each confirmed case reported by the WHO we assume that there has been another mild and unreported case, the actual global number of cases would be double the current number of WHO-confirmed cases. The fatality ratio for H5N1 infections would then be calculated as the same number of deaths, but divided by a doubled number for total cases, resulting in a hypothetical death ratio of half the currently reported fatality ratio. Such a result would indicate to epidemiologists that the world was confronting an H5N1 virus that is less-lethal than currently assumed, although possibly one that was more contagious and difficult to track.[31]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mortality_from_H5N1

I've been saying this all along.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Ok, for the 2% to become even lower the assumption to make is for more people to get infected and no one out of the total currently infected are going to die. That's the most unrealistic scenario


For the 20% to become a more accurate stat we would need to analyses a specific sample of people who all got infected at the same time and have now either died or survived, This % may or may not be lower than 20%

Failure of logic here. For the 2% to become lower the recoveries from currently infected would have to simply outnumber the deaths by a higher factor than they have been currently. Not simply none dying from the remaining cases.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Latest update

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed Cases (Cases which had an outcome) = 5,386
Deaths = 1,018
Rate = 19%

Active Cases (Currently Infected Patients) = 37,760
Serious or Critical = 7,345
Rate = 19%

Critical/serious cases are people who require to be attached to a machine in order to be able to breath
That 19% looks like it's going to become the death rate after all

Reading the same material for calculations as you, from the WHO, you have to understand the limitations with those calculations for an an ongoing potential pandemic which are seriously flawed. But they are the only ones they can make with the currently limited information.

It' not an exact science so representing them as factual is disingenuous.

Those figures have trended downwards but still don't take into account unconfirmed cases which at this moment in time are hard/impossible to estimate.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Hospitals around the world are not equipped to treat an increasing number of critical patients. Once capacity limit is reached how are such patients going to be treated?
That's when the 19% becomes a reality. Let's hope this isn't going to happen

You never mentioned any of the caveats I've made above. To the uninformed your 19% number is simply scaremongering.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases have a Death rate of 15%
Open cases have a Critical/Serious rate of 19%

Can't believe reports are still throwing around the 2% death rate bull****

Still trying to imply that the death rate is far higher than 2.1%

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Extreme measures are in place because the death rate is way higher than 2%, the data is out there, you just need a calculator


2% death rate means that out of 100 people, 2 people died and 98 people recovered
At the moment however out of 100 people we have 2 deaths, 13 recovered and 85 still sick

Again misrepresenting the numbers which are extremely flawed. Taking the 1 caveat into account from above, there are others, the number could only be lower. Not higher.

I could link more but I think I've made my point.

Ficheall

wakka12 wrote: »

8 new cases in Italy, including 2 in a different region near Venice. Total 17 now in the country

Carnevale in Venice at the mo - place will be wedged. I was due to fly over on Wednesday - didn't for other reasons, but it would certainly have put a damper on the holiday..

saabsaab

All it would take to cause problems for us is one asymptomatic case arriving here and passing it on to others. You just have to think that one of those is ill with 'f'lu' arrives into one of our busy regional hospitals for it to spread among all there.

tillyfilly

45 from Ukraine, 27 citizens or other countries

wakka12

The status of a seventh coronavirus patient in Italy has become critical. An elderly man in the Veneto Region of the North who was confirmed positive today, the second case in the area is his wife.