new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Are any of the places this is getting bad warm? Wuhan, Tokyo, Tehran, and that region in Italy are all under 15c, or were when I checked.

Minime2.5

Deleted User wrote: »

Are any of the places this is getting bad warm? Wuhan, Tokyo, Tehran, and that region in Italy are all under 15c, or were when I checked.

How bad is it in Thailand , its very warm there all year round

Minime2.5

Minime2.5 wrote: »

How bad is it in Thailand , its very warm there all year round

Oh yeah, and Singapore. Nevermind.

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

Apologies to others for this post but it has to be done.



Ok you're gonna make me do this again. I've done it several times already and you just ignored it. Maybe you want to try and offer a rebuttal this time.






You say this isn't misrepresenting stats?

I'll stick this here too as it's important. It relates to the h1n1 but also applies to covid.





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mortality_from_H5N1

I've been saying this all along.



Failure of logic here. For the 2% to become lower the recoveries from currently infected would have to simply outnumber the deaths by a higher factor than they have been currently. Not simply none dying from the remaining cases.



Reading the same material for calculations as you, from the WHO, you have to understand the limitations with those calculations for an an ongoing potential pandemic which are seriously flawed. But they are the only ones they can make with the currently limited information.

It' not an exact science so representing them as factual is disingenuous.

Those figures have trended downwards but still don't take into account unconfirmed cases which at this moment in time are hard/impossible to estimate.



You never mentioned any of the caveats I've made above. To the uninformed your 19% number is simply scaremongering.



Still trying to imply that the death rate is far higher than 2.1%



Again misrepresenting the numbers which are extremely flawed. Taking the 1 caveat into account from above, there are others, the number could only be lower. Not higher.

I could link more but I think I've made my point.

You are wasting a lot of your time here and no, you are not proving anything

The stats are out on a daily basis, you can do the math yourself
As of today we have 11% death rate on closed cases and 22% in critical condition on open cases.
We also have 3% on deaths / total cases which is basically an update to the 2% from weeks ago

Link below, you just need to hover over it with your mouse, then click, wait for the page to load and read. It's all in there

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

...oh, I almost forgot, there is also a link on How to calculate the Mortality Rate during an outbreak, you will love this one ;-)


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients
An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You are wasting a lot of your time here and no, you are not proving anything

The stats are out on a daily basis, you can do the math yourself
As of today we have 11% death rate on closed cases and 22% in critical condition on open cases.
We also have 3% on deaths / total cases which is basically an update to the 2% from weeks ago

Link below, you just need to hover over it with your mouse, then click, wait for the page to load and read. It's all in there

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

...oh, I almost forgot, there is also a link on How to calculate the Mortality Rate during an outbreak, you will love this one ;-)


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients
An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

If that is your reply then yes I am wasting my time.

I already told you I've read that and pointed out the flaws in it.

You didn't answer any of my points.

Mic 1972

Both methods are explained very clearly at the above links, if you have an issue with that you need to go back to website owners

Flawed/naive method
deaths / cases = 3%

Better method
deaths / (deaths + recovered) = 11%

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Both methods are explained very clearly at the above links, if you have an issue with that you need to go back to website owners

Flawed/naive method
deaths / cases = 3%

Better method
deaths / (deaths + recovered) = 11%

Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.

drunkmonkey

16 new cases in Italy, http://www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2020/02/21/coronavirus-16-new-cases-in-italy-4_fdfd4f36-855e-40f0-993d-48fa8a8a80f4.html

Won't be long before supermacs is the only safe place in town.

Ficheall

BloodBath wrote: »

Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.

Which method are you advocating?

BloodBath

Ficheall wrote: »

Which method are you advocating?

Taking anything with a large grain of salt until we get more data and taking into account unconfirmed cases.

At least considering it as an important factor with the numbers.

The R0 and CFR are nowhere near accurate atm.

It's most likely the R0 will go up and the CFR will go down.

ardinn

Mic 1972 wrote: »

BloodBath wrote: »

Can ye both not just agree to disagree?

el Fenomeno

Half my company are gone home to Italy for mid term. Hope they don't bring back anything other than chocolates!

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.

That's how you work with stats, you take actual data and you develop Key Indicators, then you monitor the trend to formulate predictions
If you disagree with the official methodology I can't help you with that. You will need to go back to the website owners

The correct method is showing a death rate trending negatively, it was almost 20% when everybody was screaming at me, now it's 11% and most likely will decrease further as more people are recovering. It takes longer to recover than to die

Mortality was never at 2%, that was a silly figure

Mic 1972

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Half my company are gone home to Italy for mid term. Hope they don't bring back anything other than chocolates!

If they went to the north it is risky at the moment, more counties are being shut down as I'm reading this on the news

MD1990

quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.

tillyfilly

The thread name needs to be updated

From:
new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA

To:

new coronavirus global outbreak

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

Taking anything with a large grain of salt until we get more data and taking into account unconfirmed cases.

You can't take unconfirmed cases into account
Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an options when you work with stats that are based on actual data.

tuxy

Why not use SARS-CoV-2, it would be more accurate.

4068ac1elhodqr

The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows. Somehow I reckons that won't help reduce infection risks.

Meanwhile, Russ must have got a loan of China's FRS Cameras, as they've facemapped their infected, if found on CCTV heading out for a beer, they'll be 'escorted' back home.

Mic 1972

MD1990 wrote: »

quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.

If you referring to me, I'm not going to stop posting official useful data only because someone has an issue with the numbers

tuxy

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows, somehow reckon that won't help reduce infections.

One would wonder did these people what the infected randomly roaming the country?

Mic 1972

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows. Somehow I reckons that won't help reduce infection risks.

Meanwhile, Russ must have got a loan of China's FRS Cameras, as they've facemapped their infected, if found on CCTV heading out for a beer, they'll be 'escorted' back home.

only, they weren't infected

silverharp

the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

BanditLuke

MD1990 wrote: »

quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.

Nobody is claiming to be an expert. Its a discussion forum and people are discussing the situation.

tuxy

silverharp wrote: »

the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

Are they recommending paracetamol and other medicines to reduce fever?
Is a high fever not beneficial in helping to combat the virus?

Kermit.de.frog

16 cases recorded in one day in Italy, bit of a cluster.

Mic 1972

silverharp wrote: »

the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

2% is not indicative of anything, the figure goes up and down depending on how many new cases are added to the total regardless of the outcome.
Currently it's at 3% because China went from adding 3K cases per day to 500 cases per day. That figure is not to be used

creditcarder

How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.

Kermit.de.frog

January 23rd



February 13th

Mic 1972

creditcarder wrote: »

How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.

35 official cases.
Worryingly they haven't recorded anymore new cases which is probably because they are not testing anybody at the moment, like Italy until yesterday

bodhrandude

creditcarder wrote: »

How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.

35 cases now for the last week, wouldn't be surprised if there's a few asymptomatic folk wandering about unobserved.

givyjoe

tuxy wrote: »

Are they recommending paracetamol and other medicines to reduce fever?
Is a high fever not beneficial in helping to combat the virus?

It was tongue in cheek obviously. Point still stands that the rate will increase when Oxygen etc is needed and not available.

Mic 1972

givyjoe wrote: »

It was tongue in cheek obviously. Point still stands that the rate will increase when Oxygen etc is needed and not available.

Correct
at the moment there are 22% of patients worldwide in critical conditions, basically in hospital

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1230873333002129408

tuxy

Many of the producers of medial supplies in China are now reopened.
There was a real risk that this would have cost many lives worldwide if these companies had not gone back to work.

silverharp

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% is not indicative of anything, the figure goes up and down depending on how many new cases are added to the total regardless of the outcome.
Currently it's at 3% because China went from adding 3K cases per day to 500 cases per day. That figure is not to be used

to put it differently, if 1 in 5 get a severe dose, what happens if treated with standard care v no oxygen , medical supervision worth speaking of?

ardinn

tuxy wrote: »

Many of the producers of medial supplies in China are now reopened.
There was a real risk that this would have cost many lives worldwide if these companies had not gone back to work.

There is also a risk they could contaminate the very goods they are sending to healthcare workers around the world also!

PrairieDawn

Have been following this here and on R:// for the last few weeks.

I find it most unusual that the media doesnt seem to report whats happening at the same rate things appear to be happening. But I also found this very interesting post on redit which is quite possibly fake news but also made me want to share it here.

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID__19/comments/f2jwew/if_you_were_ever_banned_or_had_a_post_removed/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

r/COVID__19
u/jackthoma59d
2
If you were ever banned or had a post removed from r/Coronavirus or r/China_Flu or have noticed the censorship then please read this...
Conspiracy
I found something interesting on u/CLO_Junkie the guy who created all the main coronavirus communities and is the main moderator.

So if you go to his post history and look at when his account was created it was November 7th, right around the time China probably knew they ****ed up about the virus and mainstream news about it was imminent. His profile suggests he deals with money so of course his first post on November 7th is in r/wallstreetbets. But after that zero posts and comments for months. Sounds like a typical cover to disguise who he really is. I mean not even one post or comment after that? Come on.

Then once official news broke of the virus on January 20th he rushed and immediately created multiple communities such as r/China_Flu and r/coronavirus as if he already had this all planned. As people joined and posted he suppressed information heavily as you can tell because all of his comments are telling people why a post is being removed. Pretty much anything showing negative things about China is removed.

My guess is that he is working for the CCP, probably works for them full time and they had this plan all along. His goal was to come into reddit disguised as a normal user and then to create communities that everyone would join that the CCP could control. He must not have a day job because he moderates 24/7.

If they control those communities, then they control the information that most of the reddit users talking about the virus have.

When I posted in r/coronavirus complaining about the heavy censorship on the thread and asking others to join my community the post was removed and I was permanently banned without reason.

He also immediately rushed and made r/COVID19 today almost instantly once the WHO released the name.

What do you think?

UPDATE: This may be worse than I thought. His account was created ONE DAY after Event 201

UPDATE 2: After searching r/wuhan_flu for “clo” I came across this thread It’s worse than I thought. It may be a group of globalists who decided to play event 201 in real life, the account was created one day after event 201 took place. Could this group be comprised of rich people with an agenda? Could they have leaked the virus from the Wuhan Level 4 bio lab by knowing someone inside who is part of their agenda? This is ****ing crazy.

UPDATE 3: One of the mods who is heavy on censorship (likely from China/CCP) is a virologist. Maybe he worked in the Wuhan Level 4 Bio Lab...see this

UPDATE 4: Another thread about CLO_Junkie and his friends trying to nuke a discord putting out negative info on China that they couldn’t control!

UPDATE 5: Today February 12th, CLO_Junkie had an AMA on his subreddit and everyone was pressuring him with questions that I brought about in my post here. Spread the truth!

Also, r/Wuhan_Flu is a now quarantined subreddit. It was the only popular subreddit about the virus that CLO and his peers could not control. They had that subreddit quarantined because they could not control it. If the link in UPDATE 2 for the thread is not working please search for r/Wuhan_Flu and join it, then try the link in UPDATE 2 and it should work.

zell12

Virus is spreading in Middle East
In Lebanon, the patient was a 45-year-old woman who arrived on Thursday on a flight from Qom.
In Israel, the patient was an Israeli woman who had been quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.

creditcarder

Only 89 in Thailand? Not too bad imo.

4068ac1elhodqr

Nasdaq down 2% today, Gold seeing 7yr high.

If anyone has any aul lumps of gold lying about (ideally in kg's), can swap for a couple of N95 face masks (used once), fresh clove of garlic, brass door knob and 100ml nano-silver spray.

bodhrandude

creditcarder wrote: »

Only 89 in Thailand? Not too bad imo.

When did it jump from 35 to 89, do you have link to that report that's a significant 54 increase.

wakka12

bodhrandude wrote: »

When did it jump from 35 to 89, do you have link to that report that's a significant 54 increase.

I'm pretty sure they misread it

Kermit.de.frog

Go Korea, go!

tillyfilly

Dow Jones drops two days in a row , down 1.6% today and yest

givyjoe

Interesting 'live' graph showing coronavirus early rates compared to SARS, MERS, etc.

https://twitter.com/novel_covid_19/status/1230930135890776065?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

China to see Wuhan build 19 more fake hospitals in record time

Coronavirus: Wuhan to build 19 more makeshift hospitals as China struggles to contain epidemic

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-wuhan-to-activate-one-more-temporary-hospital-with-3690-beds

BanditLuke

givyjoe wrote: »

Interesting 'live' graph showing coronavirus early rates compared to SARS, MERS, etc.

https://twitter.com/novel_covid_19/status/1230930135890776065?s=19

https://memecrunch.com/meme/5LDZ5/comical-ali/image.jpg

tuxy

givyjoe wrote: »

Interesting 'live' graph showing coronavirus early rates compared to SARS, MERS, etc.

https://twitter.com/novel_covid_19/status/1230930135890776065?s=19

The state of that twitter page......

givyjoe

tuxy wrote: »

The state of that twitter page......

Is the graph statistically inaccurate?

This also isn't their graph, not that should matter a jot seen as it's accurate.