new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12

South Korea today reported at least 5 times more cases than mainland China (outside Hubei) despite China having 30x times higher population...seems a bit off!

Carol25

wakka12 wrote: »

3.5% in Hubei, 0.75% mainland China outside Hubei, 1% globally/internationally

I think it will turn out to be about 0.4-1% overall. Perhaps varying by country depending on the general health of citizens, age profile of the country, and standards of healthcare

The outcome of the infected patients on board the Princess Diamon will effectively prove exactly what the total mortality rate is though in the 50+ age group. I think its pretty obvious by now that the mortality rate in those under 40 is not any more than seasonal influenza.

Is it though? Why are the critical conditions in Italy 40 year olds...

fritzelly

Hubei Numbers

New Deaths - 106
New Confirmed - 366
Total Confirmed - 63,454

Serious/Critical - 10,692

So only 3 deaths outside Hubei today - More deaths in the rest of the world population's per capita that makes no sense. Not to mention the confirmed cases in a population of nearly a billion

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

South Korea today reported 5 times more cases than mainland China (outside Hubei) despite China having 20x times higher population...seems a bit off!

China is a communist regime.

South Korea is an open democracy.

That's the difference.

wakka12

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

China is a communist regime.

South Korea is an open democracy.

That's the difference.

I never really believed totally that China was lying big time about the number of cases and deaths until today, South Korea really made it very clear that they are

Call Me Jimmy

On Jan 25 the expert modellers said 10 times the numbers. Look at the growth around then and after (which itself was limited by testing even if they became more honest).

Then Feb 3rd Xi has has the standing meeting and the graph inverts.

Then map THAT onto the world as the WHO says travel bans are racist or something

China was complaining about travel bans while locking down their own population, goes to show the numberwang was to get rid of the bans. In their interest to spread it, beggar thy neighbor style

Be sensible and stock up a little, in a lockdown the less shopping you have to do the less exposure.

Dangerous to accept it as part of the normal cold and flu season as it might start wiping young healthy people too on the second round. We simply don't Know. Risk too high to take.

Don't bet on a vaccine, still none for SARs.

Ficheall

wakka12 wrote: »

I think its pretty obvious by now that the mortality rate in those under 40 is not any more than seasonal influenza.

"Pretty obvious" based on what?

bodhrandude

I hate to say it but I think the only time we're going to get a proper RTE report on this is when someone shows up at an A&E in critical condition or drops dead. Judging by what I heard if you phone the HSE number and they establish that you were not in China or been in contact with Chinese people. If you actually explain to them that none of these things happened and that you are having trouble breathing, will they still send someone out to collect you, I'd like to think so anyway.

all about the mane

Covid 19 has killed 2251 people so far. Influenza has killed around 10000 in the US alone this season. We need a bit of perspective here.

fritzelly

all about the mane wrote: »

Covid 19 has killed 2251 people so far. Influenza has killed around 10000 in the US alone this season. We need a bit of perspective here.

Covid-19 has 80,000 confirmed cases - countries locking down and isolating confirmed cases to prevent spread

Flu confirmed cases - let's just say 10's of millions

Sure tis grand it's no worse than flu

Kermit.de.frog

all about the mane wrote: »

Covid 19 has killed 2251 people so far.

There are dark indications from within China, though unverified at this point, that things are far, far worse in terms of death toll. A particular focus is on dead not diagnosed and darker still regard the numbers dead in their own homes and apartments many yet to be discovered.

Anyone who believes a word the CCP says may as well go and live there and experience paradise and openness for themselves.

You only need to go on the measures the communist party put in place and you quickly realise that can not be the situation.

It just can't. You don't take these actions unless something incredibly serious is unfolding - and certainly not for 1,000 odd deaths.

bodhrandude

all about the mane wrote: »

Covid 19 has killed 2251 people so far. Influenza has killed around 10000 in the US alone this season. We need a bit of perspective here.

Covid 19 is still in its infancy so fairly new, influenza has been around for a long time, give the new virus time or very hopefully not, but very rash to make these comparisons at this early stage.

tuxy

all about the mane wrote: »

Covid 19 has killed 2251 people so far. Influenza has killed around 10000 in the US alone this season. We need a bit of perspective here.

Absently, just look at how many people die each day. (150,000)

People shouldn't be freaking out.
Of course a new virus that will probably be seasonal is concerning as it will be in addition to what we already have to deal with.

Ficheall

all about the mane wrote: »

Covid 19 has killed 2251 people so far. Influenza has killed around 10000 in the US alone this season. We need a bit of perspective here.

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season

This says 6600 dead from flu out of 13000000, ie. if you catch it, the chance of dying is 1 in 2000. Whereas for the coronavirus, the chance of dying from it seems to be about 1 in 33.
Perspective, indeed.

tuxy

Ficheall wrote: »

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season

This says 6600 dead from flu out of 13000000, ie. if you catch it, the chance of dying is 1 in 2000. Whereas for the coronavirus, the chance of dying from it seems to be about 1 in 33.
Perspective, indeed.

But covid 19 is one virus so far that will need one vaccine.

The flu has so many variants that many years the vaccine is ineffective.

darjeeling

igCorcaigh wrote: »

LOL!

Viruses mutate all the time, nothing to worry about.

RNA viruses like the common cold change each season. Must mutations are harmless.

I find it amazing that in our cells that there is a copy check mechanism, because it has two copies. So

Indeed they do - and this site shows some of the mutations that have happened so far since the start of this outbreak:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Researchers looking at the diversity amongst different SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from individuals around the world can use this info to figure out how long the virus has been evolving in humans - i.e. when the outbreak began (estimated Dec 2019) - and also to help understand how the disease is spreading from place to place.

I don't know of any reason yet to think that any of the individual mutations seen may have any effect on viral antigens that could be targeted by a vaccine, or indeed by the immune response in the absence of a vaccine. Using the same website to look at other circulating pandemic viruses such as flu and dengue shows they have much higher genetic diversity because those viruses have been with us for far longer, and may indeed - as for flu - have crossed into humans multiple times from different sources. Vaccine development is therefore more complicated in these older diseases, because vaccines may not confer resistance to all strains.


Separately, and FWIW, I think the last couple of days' data on global case numbers do unfortunately give a sense that this virus is increasingly spreading from person to person outside of China.
This is based on:

• far eastern countries (Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong) reporting daily or near-daily cases for weeks
• South Korea now showing a dramatic spike in cases
• more sporadic cases occurring over weeks in south-east asian nations (Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia)
• ongoing cases in the middle east including UAE and the out-of-the blue Iran clusters
• the new clusters in Italy

In many of these countries, new cases have been unsuspected, are geographically dispersed, and have led to detection of more extended clusters. We've also seen reports of possibly-infected people departing from these countries without being properly tested. And who knows what's happening in countries with little or no testing.

I would therefore go along with those anticipating a global pandemic taking off in the next few weeks to months. A hot-to-press & unreviewed modelling article estimated timing and maximum numbers infected for a prospective UK epidemic, finding that 60% to 80% of people could be infected by the end, and that the peak could come within 4 to 12 months depending on whether transmission varies seasonally.
(Link).

The fatality rate estimated by the Imperial College London epidemiology group (centred on 1%, though could be 4X lower or higher) looks very plausible, and seems to agree with the fatality rates outside of China once you allow for the contervailing effects of lag times to severe disease, and under-detection rates in mild cases.
Latest youtube update here.

Unless some of the hastily-arranged Chinese clinical trials of antivirals (anti-HIV protease inhibitors and the novel RNA replication blocker remdesivir), or other established drugs (e.g. chloroquine) yield encouraging results, then we could be looking at numbers of severe cases and fatalities of the order of 10 times those seen for the average seasonal flu epidemic, mostly affecting older people and those with immunodeficiencies or other conditions including respiratory and cardiovascular disease.

This isn't the end of everyone, but there will likely be very challenging times for high risk groups and for health services if it does go pandemic.

all about the mane

fritzelly wrote: »

Covid-19 has 80,000 confirmed cases - countries locking down and isolating confirmed cases to prevent spread

Flu confirmed cases - let's just say 10's of millions

Sure tis grand it's no worse than flu

SARS, ebola, etc etc. We've seen this before i think?

all about the mane

Ficheall wrote: »

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season

This says 6600 dead from flu out of 13000000, ie. if you catch it, the chance of dying is 1 in 2000. Whereas for the coronavirus, the chance of dying from it seems to be about 1 in 33.
Perspective, indeed.

That 1 in 33 number is way off

Ficheall

all about the mane wrote: »

That 1 in 33 number is way off

Perhaps a bit, aye - how much closer to 1 in 2000 would you put it?

all about the mane

Ficheall wrote: »

Perhaps a bit, aye - how much closer to 1 in 2000 would you put it?

People are on here saying that the Chinese government are lying about the number dead. Yet they are happy enough to accept the infected numbers. Can't have it both ways.

Personally I would think the number is multiples of the 80,000 quoted. But we are all speculating at best, including the authorities.

Kermit.de.frog

If you believe China (the CCP!) presses the self destruct button on it's own economy for some mere flu variant that we all get over and accept as the norm in a year's time you are totally deluded.

They are lying about the numbers because the CCP's survival depends on it and they don't care what happens outside the country. South Korea on the other hand not so much...much harder to control the narrative there in a functioning democracy.

It's basic mathematical extrapolation. You would have to multiply the infection rate in South Korea (among a small cluster of cases) so many times for China to account for the far larger population and...you can reach your own conclusions. It's out of control.

wakka12

Ficheall wrote: »

"Pretty obvious" based on what?

I think there are like 4 or 5 deaths under 30 in China out of 2500

all about the mane

wakka12 wrote: »

First death in Italy

1st death in Italy: a 77 year old man in Vò Euganeo (Padua). The man had been in the hospital for the past ten days due to other health problems.

bodhrandude

Guardian piece on South Korea from 30 minutes ago.

wakka12

all about the mane wrote: »

People are on here saying that the Chinese government are lying about the number dead. Yet they are happy enough to accept the infected numbers. Can't have it both ways.

Personally I would think the number is multiples of the 80,000 quoted. But we are all speculating at best, including the authorities.

It is more dangerous than the flu . If seasonal flu broke out on the Diamond Princess cruise liner it would not cause severe complications in over 4% of those who contracted it and kill two. Not only that but flu would also probably not infect such a large number , so it is also more infectious than flu .It's not the flu, this is not the end of the world but it is a lot more dangerous than the flu

Anyway you need only look around to see how governments are responding to minor outbreaks to clearly see that it is not a comparable danger to the flu

ceadaoin.

Ficheall wrote: »

Perhaps a bit, aye - how much closer to 1 in 2000 would you put it?

Without knowing the true number of infections then no one knows or could even make a guess. We know from the cruise ship cases that a good number have no symptoms or ones that are comparable to a cold.

all about the mane

wakka12 wrote: »

It is more dangerous than the flu . If seasonal flu broke out on the Diamond Princess cruise liner it would not cause severe complications in over 4% of those who contracted it and kill two. It's not the flu, this is not the end of the world but it is a lot more dangerous than the flu

I never said it was. I said people needed a bit of perspective.

Ficheall

all about the mane wrote: »

People are on here saying that the Chinese government are lying about the number dead. Yet they are happy enough to accept the infected numbers. Can't have it both ways.

You were the one who said 2251 dead - I just took the corresponding amount for the reported number of cases

all about the mane

Ficheall wrote: »

You were the one who said 2251 dead - I just took the corresponding amount for the reported number of cases

Yes, and people are saying that number is wrong

Ficheall

all about the mane wrote: »

Yes, and people are saying that number is wrong

Ah, so you are the one who wants to have it both ways.. I see. Carry on then.

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season

This says 6600 dead from flu out of 13000000, ie. if you catch it, the chance of dying is 1 in 2000. Whereas for the coronavirus, the chance of dying from it seems to be about 1 in 33.
Perspective, indeed.

It won't be over 1% by the end. Guaranteed.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

It is more dangerous than the flu . If seasonal flu broke out on the Diamond Princess cruise liner it would not cause severe complications in over 4% of those who contracted it and kill two. Not only that but flu would also probably not infect such a large number , so it is also more infectious than flu .It's not the flu, this is not the end of the world but it is a lot more dangerous than the flu

Anyway you need only look around to see how governments are responding to minor outbreaks to clearly see that it is not a comparable danger to the flu

I believe people on the cruise skew to above 50s so would be higher risk in general.

wakka12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I believe people on the cruise skew to above 50s so would be higher risk in general.

Yep that is absolutely true but a seasonal influenza outbreak on a ship of older folk will still not leave27 in a serious condition and 2 dead over the span of a fortnight out of 630 infections

https://traveltips.usatoday.com
Most people who use Diamond Princess cruises tend to be aged in the 35-65 bracket ,so while older than the general population it's not a cruise full of geriatrics on deaths doorstep. And while they are older it must also be recognised that people casually travelling around the world from Europe to east Asia will generally be in at least decent health.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Yep that is absolutely true but a seasonal influenza outbreak on a ship of older folk will still not leave27 in a serious condition and 2 dead over the span of a fortnight out of 630 infections

https://traveltips.usatoday.com
Most people who use Diamond Princess cruises tend to be aged in the 35-65 bracket ,so while older than the general population it's not a cruise full of geriatrics on deaths doorstep

Normal flu has a hospitalisation rate of roughy 1-2% of all people diagnosed with deaths 0.1-0.2%. So it's roughly double. It's not worth the mass hysteria at the moment (apart from if you are elderly or have co-morbidities).

And the higher percentage could be the lack of a vaccine available compared to the seasonal influenza one we have.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231045580610207744

all about the mane

Ficheall wrote: »

Ah, so you are the one who wants to have it both ways.. I see. Carry on then.

No, I don’t. You don’t see...

s7ryf3925pivug

Looks like I was misinformed earlier when I said a vaccine would not work long term. According to this the virus is pretty stable and a vaccine would be expected to work for quite a long time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

bodhrandude

CDC confirmed there is now 35 cases in the US (CNN).

“Several patients of the deadly coronavirus in China who were discharged from care are testing positive for COVID-19 again, according to Chinese state media.”

https://www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/21/COVID-19-reinfection-cases-on-the-rise-in-China/4291582219521/

tuxy

Deleted User wrote: »

“Several patients of the deadly coronavirus in China who were discharged from care are testing positive for COVID-19 again, according to Chinese state media.”

https://www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/21/COVID-19-reinfection-cases-on-the-rise-in-China/4291582219521/

If you read this then you see that the problem is false negative test results not reinfection.
This is what I suspected when I read the headline.
Reinfection would mean this is unlike any other similar virus we have ever seen before. (highly unlikely)
Inability to reliably test would seem to be one of the bigger problems at the moment.

Stark

Yeah I went searching for that "reinfection" thing and no evidence for it. All the evidence currently points to immunity after infection.

tuxy

Stark wrote: »

Yeah I went searching for that "reinfection" thing and no evidence for it. All the evidence currently points to immunity after infection.

Yes that would be standard for a virus, someone who has recovered will have immunity for a very long time unless the virus mutates.

I wouldn't be surprised if medical staff who are under enormous pressure right now are made mistakes when testing.

Kermit.de.frog

Relapse seems to be an increasing trend with the novel coronavirus albeit from small numbers for now.

igCorcaigh

tuxy wrote: »

If you read this then you see that the problem is false negative test results not reinfection.
This is what I suspected when I read the headline.
Reinfection would mean this is unlike any other similar virus we have ever seen before. (highly unlikely)
Inability to reliably test would seem to be one of the bigger problems at the moment.

Do you mean false positives? I don't follow tuxy.
There are issues with false negatives alright.

tuxy

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do you mean false positives? I don't follow tuxy.
There are issues with false negatives alright.

No it would seem the person who wrote the article confused false negatives in people who had not actually recovered with reinfection.

There is no evidence of reinfection of those who have actually recovered.

Kermit.de.frog

tuxy wrote: »

No it would seem the person who wrote the article confused false negatives in people who had not actually recovered with reinfection.

There is no evidence of reinfection of those who have actually recovered.

Erm, there is.

tuxy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Erm, there is.

There are many articles about reinfection but when you read them it explains it's actually a problem with testing. People who have it sometimes test negative even though they have not recovered.

Is that what you are talking about or something else?

igCorcaigh

tuxy wrote: »

There are many articles about reinfection but when you read them it explains it's actually a problem with testing. People who have it sometimes test negative even though they have not recovered.

Is that what you are talking about or something else?

I'd say.

That's good news anyway tuxy.
It would be very unusual for reinfection to occur.

Graces7

fritzelly wrote: »

In my day and age newspapers came in handy in the bathroom - snowflake generation stocking up on ultra soft toilet paper

You beat me to it.

Or rags you wash.

The survivalist sites also are big on making sure you take soft toilet tissue with you when you " bug out" ..