new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Drumpot

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

5 deaths and 28 cases in a country of 81 million people and you're calling things bleak. Come on.

I presume the 5 deaths would suggest that there’s hundreds infected in Iran if we take a 1%-2% death ratio? Or at least I hope so or some sort of medical Reason for such a high death rate , cause we don’t want a 20%

CinemaGuy45

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

5 deaths and 28 cases in a country of 81 million people and you're calling things bleak. Come on.

Yes you are totally correct that post you quoting is just crazy talk.:D


How many cases did Iran have a week ago just asking?:rolleyes:

ChikiChiki

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

5 deaths and 28 cases in a country of 81 million people and you're calling things bleak. Come on.

Just under 20% mortality in Iran cases.

Thats bleak in my book.

tuxy

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

5 deaths and 28 cases in a country of 81 million people and you're calling things bleak. Come on.

Yes bleak is the wrong phrase for sure.
It is a much higher fatality rate than expected.
But it's a tiny sample size and who knows how long it will be until we can depend on the data coming out of any country.

laurah591

tuxy wrote: »

I was joking about the generator.

lol u had to explain .... monkey covers eyes

RebelButtMunch

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Yes you are totally correct that post you quoting is just crazy talk.:D


How many cases did Iran have a week ago just asking?:rolleyes:

Zero. That's an increase of infinity! We're all doomed!

tuxy

laurah591 wrote: »

lol u had to explain .... monkey covers eyes

some took it seriously. lion covers tail

Drumpot

tuxy wrote: »

I was joking about the generator.

I guessed that.

tuxy wrote: »

It should help improve the amount of useful factual information.

Factual information like making fun of those you disagree with by joking about generators? Try to not throw stones in that glasshouse of yours.

tromtipp

That's good advice for vulnerable people, the old or those with poor immune systems.
A healthy person can easily survive 10 days on a miniscule amount of calories and will stay warm just fine with a few blankets.

The advice, given (rather crossly) by the politician charged with commenting on the response to the snow, was for all households, not just the 'vulnerable' - which could include anyone under 10, over 70, pregnant, asthmatic, diabetic - rather a lot of households will include someone who'd find extended cold or hunger a challenge.

How often have you lived wrapped in a blanket with little or no food for 10 days? Would you choose to do it again?

I an just imagine me and the cat eyeing each other up, wondering who'd be the first to crack and eat the other.

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, they don't work so its not much loss.

In the lock down areas in Italy people are advised to wear them

Mic 1972

Drumpot wrote: »

I presume the 5 deaths would suggest that there’s hundreds infected in Iran if we take a 1%-2% death ratio? Or at least I hope so or some sort of medical Reason for such a high death rate , cause we don’t want a 20%

the speed at which the numbers of cases went from 0 to 28 is an indication of how many undetected cases are out there, same as in Italy. Now they have a new case popping up every hour

Graces7

tuxy wrote: »

That's good advice for vulnerable people, the old or tho se with poor immune systems.
A healthy person can easily survive 10 days on a miniscule amount of calories and will stay warm just fine with a few blankets.

Why would anyone need to do that? We are all and each vulnerable to infection .

jackboy

dominatinMC wrote: »

Jesus, that last paragraph sums up a lot of the sentiment on here. "Supply chain breakdown", "panic", 'nothing to stop it". All you're missing is "immovable object Vs. unstoppable force" and you'd have a Hollywood script.

Supply chain breakdown is a very real risk to humanity. Most people do not understand how extremely fragile the food supply chain is. Eventually humanity will likely be hit by a situation where this breaks down, leading to absolute carnage.

However, chances are that this virus is not the trigger to break the supply chain. At the moment it does not appear to be that serious. Of course there are still many unknowns about this virus.

tuxy

Drumpot wrote: »

I guessed that.

I wasn't joking about the freezer full of food though. But that's for convenience not stockpiling.

Mic 1972

jackboy wrote:

Supply chain breakdown is a very real risk to humanity. Most people do not understand how extremely fragile the food supply chain is. Eventually humanity will likely be hit by a situation where this breaks down, leading to absolute carnage.

Do you read full sentences of just random key words?

tom1ie

Duke of Url wrote: »

That’s a mindset..

So what are you doing at this moment to prepare for COVID19.

Hoarding guns and ammo, food water, medical supplies. 3/4” plywood for the windows.

Graces7

tromtipp wrote: »

The advice, given (rather crossly) by the politician charged with commenting on the response to the snow, was for all households, not just the 'vulnerable' - which could include anyone under 10, over 70, pregnant, asthmatic, diabetic - rather a lot of households will include someone who'd find extended cold or hunger a challenge.

How often have you lived wrapped in a blanket with little or no food for 10 days? Would you choose to do it again?

I an just imagine me and the cat eyeing each other up, wondering who'd be the first to crack and eat the other.

roflol! I have six cats! I know of someone once who died and was not found for a while and she had little left of her feet as the cats were hungry..

And there is no need with a little forethought and common sense to go without food and heating . I was once in a house that was all electric and the pipes burst, so now I aim to be multi fuelled. Gas cooker , solid fuel stove.

One useful item is a small camping stove too. Candles!

tuxy

tromtipp wrote: »

How often have you lived wrapped in a blanket with little or no food for 10 days? Would you choose to do it again?

I probably don't do intermittent fasting as often as I should so probably only a few times a year.

all about the mane

BanditLuke wrote: »

Things looking bleak in Iran

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1231157575707701248

Those are not the real numbers. Can’t base anything on that

RandomViewer

tom1ie wrote: »

Hoarding guns and ammo, food water, medical supplies. 3/4” plywood for the windows.

Stainless chequer plate for D 4, plywood would be too common

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the speed at which the numbers of cases went from 0 to 28 is an indication of how many undetected cases are out there, same as in Italy. Now they have a new case popping up every hour

Rubbish yes it jumped from 0 to 28 in now time and yes a new case every hour.

But it will stop before it gets scary because

all about the mane

tromtipp wrote: »

Whether or not Covid19 turns out to be threat to people in Ireland, we have been told before (notably two years ago during the big snow) that households should routinely have enough supplies of food, water and meds for ten days or so, some sources of light and heat in case of power cuts, and a battery operated radio so that we can stay informed. People with responsibility for others usually know that anyway. I do wonder whether some of the people saying that this is a crazy mindset are very young and used to having someone who can bail them out in a crisis.

It isn't about panicking, it isn't about fear, it's about being responsible. Living long enough to have had repeated experiences of being locked in by weather or illness helps focus the mind.

People in the country, in windy areas that get* frequent power cuts, who pump their own water, often have generators. Again, not panic - experience + common sense.

*This doesn't happen as often as it used to, the ESB have upgraded the supply lines.

Do you think there’s a market for nuclear bunkers here?

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Mic 1972 wrote: »

A month ago people buying masks were being laughed at. Now masks are nowhere to be found

You can make your own! Two layers kitchen roll cut in half, tissue in between, masking tape them together and hole punch for elastic bands to hold it on your ears. Then affix a sheet of acetate over the feet of a pair of glasses and use that as a splatter shield across your face.

jackboy

jackboy wrote: »

Supply chain breakdown is a very real risk to humanity. Most people do not understand how extremely fragile the food supply chain is. Eventually humanity will likely be hit by a situation where this breaks down, leading to absolute carnage.

However, chances are that this virus is not the trigger to break the supply chain. At the moment it does not appear to be that serious. Of course there are still many unknowns about this virus.

And any impact on the chain is made far worse by people filling freezers. I can see why they do it out of self-preservation at the expense of others, but I don't agree with it. A week or two I suppose is fine but months? The supply chain won't break to the point of there not being enough food. It just ends up in the hands of a few.

It's like a run on the banks. It's not that there isn't enough money. It's everyone panicking trying to get it at once. The first ones get all their savings meaning the last ones get nothing.

VinLieger

Pulled myself away from this mess for a few days but i thought things were slowing down.

South Koreas spike makes sense cus of the stupid ignorant religion involved, Italys cluster is also kinda explainable but wtf is happening in Iran?

tuxy

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Rubbish yes it jumped from 0 to 28 in now time and yes a new case every hour.

But it will stop before it gets scary because

When ostrigest do this they actually rotating eggs.
This is preparation to help the survival of the eggs.
I don't think it is time for people to take such drastic measure yet anyway we are mammals so don't come from external eggs.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

In the lock down areas in Italy people are advised to wear them

https://www.livescience.com/respirators-prevent-coronavirus-infection-study.html

Wang and his co-authors went on to review infection data from the Huangmei People's Hospital and the Qichun People's Hospital, which each housed more than 10 infected patients during the time surveyed. As at the Zhongnan Hospital, no medical staff who wore N95 respirators and frequently washed their hands caught COVID-19.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/unmasked-experts-explain-necessary-respiratory-protection-covid-19

A respirator, such as an N95, fits tighter to the face and is meant to help protect the wearer from inhaling infectious droplets in the environment.

"We don't really know how the coronavirus is being transmitted from person to person, because no one has done the NIOSH studies that simulate the cough big droplets that land 3 to 6 feet away from a person or the little droplets that can travel long distances and in air handling system," Ribner said. "So we have to use what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza when it comes to this disease."

What we know, Ribner said, is that multiple modes of transmission are likely at play, including large droplets, small droplets (or aerosols), and contaminated hands.

more: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/respirator-use-faq.html

Masks help but limit the available supply to hospital staff which is why some places recommend 'not for general populations use' while in China they are not allowed out without a mask.

Mic 1972

VinLieger wrote: »

Pulled myself away from this mess for a few days but i thought things were slowing down.

South Koreas spike makes sense cus of the stupid ignorant religion involved, Italys cluster is also kinda explainable but wtf is happening in Iran?

how is Italy kind of explainable?

Iran and Italy - and any other country at this point - are dealing with the undetected cases out there

BanditLuke

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

5 deaths and 28 cases in a country of 81 million people and you're calling things bleak. Come on.

Yes they had none just a few days ago and now 5 out of 28 are dead. But hey nothing to see here move along.

Doctor Jimbob

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yes they had none just a few days ago and now 5 out of 28 are dead. But hey nothing to see here move along.

I didn't say nothing to see here move along or anything of the sort.

tuxy

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yes they had none just a few days ago and now 5 out of 28 are dead. But hey nothing to see here move along.

Yes it really does make it seem improbable that the data coming out of Iran is accurate.

CinemaGuy45

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yes they had none just a few days ago and now 5 out of 28 are dead. But hey nothing to see here move along.

Look stop the silliness yes 5 people out of 28 are dead and this is very sad but let us remember this number is small it is not like this thing spreads or something.

The sensible thing to do is not buy anything extra or make any preparations.
Sure if you run out of food just ring for a pizza.

Mic 1972

tuxy wrote: »

Yes it really does make it seem improbable that the data coming out of Iran is accurate.

It's consistent with the data in Italy. They went from 3 cases to 45 in just 1 day. They were testing about 4,000 people yesterday, that's where the new cases came from

The only way to have accurate data is to go out and test people

tillyfilly

Big shop today , hoarded as much as the tractor could hold, soup beans and custard for the next year should the world end

odyssey06

Excerpt from article in this week's New Scientist about the virus, my emphasis in bold.

Cases outside China are infecting fewer other people than expected, given the rate of spread in China. Using epidemic models, Justin Lessler at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland says this fits a situation in which only 10 per cent of cases are responsible for 80 per cent of transmission – in other words, most cases are caused by superspreaders...
If many places outside Wuhan “get lucky” and get few superspreaders, “this seems the most likely way a pandemic might be averted”, says Marc Lipsitch at Harvard University. However, Lipsitch says that seems a lot to hope for, given the number of countries with infections, and the likely number of missed cases. He predicts that covid-19 will go pandemic, infecting between 40 to 70 per cent of people globally. Lipsitch and Fisman both say that if that is going to happen, unexplained clusters of severe pneumonia in older people outside China will emerge in a few weeks...
The SARS coronavirus moved mainly via super-spreading and the epidemic died out. Whether that is likely to happen this time should become apparent soon.

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

It's consistent with the data in Italy. They went from 3 cases to 45 in just 1 day. They were testing about 4,000 people yesterday, that's where the new cases came from

The only way to have accurate data is to go out and test people

Nah can not agree with that.

The best way to handle this is to do no testing then you have NO confirmed cases.
And if somebody does fall ill just cover it up and call people tinfoil hat wackos sure we have no CONFIRMED cases sure we are grand.

Edit we could get the Garda they are great at doing tests we could have them pull over cars and do tests on the roadside then we would have some solid numbers to work on.

silverharp

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Look stop the silliness yes 5 people out of 28 are dead and this is very sad but let us remember this number is small it is not like this thing spreads or something.

The sensible thing to do is not buy anything extra or make any preparations.
Sure if you run out of food just ring for a pizza.

ask for extra napkins if you run out of toilet roll :pac:

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

CinemaGuy45

Deleted User wrote: »

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

14 days is the official incubation time.

VinLieger

[Deleted User] wrote: »

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

Theres no way to confirm this, he could have come into contact with multiple other infected since then. With the severity in older people i do not believe he could go 27 days with no symptoms.

jackboy

Deleted User wrote: »

And any impact on the chain is made far worse by people filling freezers. I can see why they do it out of self-preservation at the expense of others, but I don't agree with it. A week or two I suppose is fine but months? The supply chain won't break to the point of there not being enough food. It just ends up in the hands of a few.

People hoarding in advance have little impact on the food supply chain. The supply chain could be easily broken to the point where food runs out, happens in regions of the world(with other issues) all the time.

We have been seriously degrading farming in this country for decades and we are not nearly as self sufficient as we were. That could come back to bite us.

Of course it would take a very severe virus to have this impact. As I have said, this virus does not seem to be serious enough. I think it will be next winter though before we will have a good knowledge of the threat of this virus.

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

I'm pretty sure they misread it

I did



But, I do think hot weather does stimmy it. It doesn't destroy the virus, but it massively cuts down on the 'passive' transmission imo.

creditcarder

Deleted User wrote: »

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

Why are china pushing a huge incubation period when other sources aren't? I'm not sure what's going on in the politcs there tbh.

CinemaGuy45

VinLieger wrote: »

Theres no way to confirm this, he could have come into contact with multiple other infected since then. With the severity in older people i do not believe he could go 27 days with no symptoms.

Yes sure with a new and developing situation who can say for sure?

When we are not sure let us just assume the least scary outcome.

Drumpot

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

CinemaGuy45

creditcarder wrote: »

Why are china pushing a huge incubation period when other sources aren't? I'm not sure what's going on in the politcs there tbh.

Some people screaming for us to believe the official Chinese infection and death figures but don't believe them when they say something scary.

Some people want to have their cake and eat it too.

Mic 1972

creditcarder wrote: »

But, I do think hot weather does stimmy it. It doesn't destroy the virus, but it massively cuts down on the 'passive' transmission imo.

If only that worked in Singapore and Thailand...

jackboy

jackboy wrote: »

People hoarding in advance have little impact on the food supply chain. The supply chain could be easily broken to the point where food runs out, happens in regions of the world(with other issues) all the time.

We have been seriously degrading farming in this country for decades and we are not nearly as self sufficient as we were. That could come back to bite us.

Of course it would take a very severe virus to have this impact. As I have said, this virus does not seem to be serious enough. I think it will be next winter though before we will have a good knowledge of the threat of this virus.

Doesn't Ireland produce enough for food for over thirty million people? It's countries like the UK that actually have to import.

Describe to me how the supply chain in Ireland could be easily broken to the point where food runs out.

Mic 1972

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

good example, both SARS and MERS are closed, while COvid-19 is still open, out of the total cases there are more than 70% cases without an outcome, many of which will eventually add up to the total deaths

CinemaGuy45

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

Stupid chart putting the new scary virus in RED.

Why can the much bigger number not be in a much more calming BLUE ?