new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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cnocbui wrote: »

Imagine a bunch of infected workers at Amazon fulfillment centres; The virus on the packages which are then handled by couriers and postal workers who then go on to handle many more packages while asymptomatic. Not to mention the lucky recipients of the packages.

All on Prime day too when they shift humongous amounts of stock.

It mightn't survive on the outside of boxes in cargo, but wrapped up in bubblewrap who knows.

The only soloution (without spraying electornics), would be to use some car mounted 500w UVC array beans (like the chap WillySmith had in yon movie: I is Lengend for zombies). Or rent a sunbed for 10mins, and lash the parcels in (and receive some very funny looks at tanarama etc).

Mic 1972

theguzman wrote: »

No religion is banned under Communism.

The one good thing Communism ever introduced

tara73

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Yep, and instead of stock piling food I wonder if it made more sense to slow down on social activities like going to the pub/concerts/etc.
Those are the places where people got infected in Italy

this. havn't been to the gym the last weeks...

Often use a train which is coming directly from the airport to the city center. Didn't think about it, got in, then, when seeing all the suitcases I realised it...

A couple with suitcases, sitting face to face not even half a meter distance between us...had the sudden urge to ask them WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN??
But could contain myself...:D

Ficheall

Dr John is down
Tinfoil hats at the ready..

darjeeling

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Yep, and instead of stock piling food I wonder if it made more sense to slow down on social activities like going to the pub/concerts/etc.
Those are the places where people got infected in Italy
Also Companies could start implementing work from home as a preventive safety measure
It may sound extreme now, but it's better than having to do it later once half the city is infected!

That's what I'm thinking.

Any epidemic here is likely to play out over months, peaking a few months after person-to-person transmission takes hold, and taking months to fall away after that.
In terms of practical things people can do to prepare, that time scale is important.

For people at risk of a poor outcome should they be infected, but who can take steps to avoid getting it at all, it would make sense to figure how to avoid infection.
That could mean things like:

• figuring out where to get good reliable information and advice on the progression of the epidemic and how to take care of yourself
• bringing forward essential travel to avoid travelling when infection rates are higher
• bringing forward minor and routine medical appointments and procedures to avoid needing medical services at the height of an epidemic
• choosing to avoid social gatherings you might otherwise want to attend - e.g. large family events
• restricting contact generally with people who might be infected
• seeing if you can get your groceries delivered rather than having to go to busy supermarkets

For people who are going out to work, living in city centres, travelling on public transport, dealing with large numbers of customers, avoiding infection is going to be much harder.
Though at least most urban-dwelling, bus-commuting shop workers are likely to be younger and so at lower risk of adverse outcomes.

For businesses, plans should be made for avoiding cross-infection between staff where possible, for operating during higher than usual staff absence, for home working etc.
We had the flu run through our office in December, and about a quarter of us caught it by the end. Some people were out for over a week. This new virus could easily be more disruptive than that.

Graces7

cnocbui wrote: »

Imagine a bunch of infected workers at Amazon fulfillment centres; The virus on the packages which are then handled by couriers and postal workers who then go on to handle many more packages while asymptomatic. Not to mention the lucky recipients of the packages.

It has been repeatedly affirmed that the virus does not linger on packages etc! Come on now! Stop this!

Drumpot

Ficheall wrote: »

Dr John is down
Tinfoil hats at the ready..

Was really good until he went down aswell . . He didnt have a problem the other night when he had a sort of non planned live chat and seems to be saavy enough at uploading videos to his channel. . You really would start getting paranoid..

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The latest case in Italy is a 78 year old man who had been in hospital already for 1 week!
He got tested only today
You would expect that people with respiratory issues be tested for virus right?

The number of infected people in Europe must be seriously underestimated. Somehow Italy are lucky that at least a proper assessment of the situation is being carried out

THE EU ARE LYING ABOUT THE NUMBERS INFECTED!

On a side note. I don’t trust buying pasta in the shops to store in my bunker. Anyone got experience making fresh pasta?

SeaBreezes

auspicious wrote: »

Does anyone know is there any further detail about the two oaps which died in Italy; any underlying medical conditions?
Or has China released stats on how susceptible people with different conditions are to not recovering?

There are a couple of articles on the lancet about it:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30308-1/fulltext

SeaBreezes

cnocbui wrote: »

Imagine a bunch of infected workers at Amazon fulfillment centres; The virus on the packages which are then handled by couriers and postal workers who then go on to handle many more packages while asymptomatic. Not to mention the lucky recipients of the packages.

The Simpsons beat you to it.. :-)

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

THE EU ARE LYING ABOUT THE NUMBERS INFECTED!

On a side note. I don’t trust buying pasta in the shops to store in my bunker. Anyone got experience making fresh pasta?

They aren't lying. Testing everyone is not a possible option so yes there are lots of infected people walking around, it is what it is, no need to be smart

s7ryf3925pivug

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I did get a couple of disposable full body protective suits but in fairness they were reduced to 2 euro.

s7ryf3925pivug

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

What do you mean by close the borders? We're not self sufficient

I thought we produce a food surplus?

I don't expect or even suggest the action; just curious about whether we could.

cnocbui

Duke of Url wrote: »

THE EU ARE LYING ABOUT THE NUMBERS INFECTED!

On a side note. I don’t trust buying pasta in the shops to store in my bunker. Anyone got experience making fresh pasta?

Untold Youtube videos on it.

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

They aren't lying. Testing everyone is not a possible option so yes there are lots of infected people walking around, it is what it is, no need to be smart

My post is not directed at you.

It’s in relation to people who posted that China was lying about numbers.

VinLieger

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I thought we produce a food surplus?

I don't expect or even suggest the action; just curious about whether we could.

Yup were one of the highest rated countries in the world for food security, i remember reading we produce 4 to 5 times what we require, however whether we could keep our own internal supply chains going is another question

Duke of Url

cnocbui wrote: »

Untold Youtube videos on it.

When do we expect the dead people on the street videos?

tillyfilly

I’m on a first date tonight, definitely no kissing !!!!

bodhrandude

Notice the last two countries to hit headlines, Iran and Italy, the virus is attacking countries beginning with I, Ireland next :eek: Only kidding. :)

tillyfilly

First date tonight , does a kiss pass on the infection of the other is infected ?

Duke of Url

tillyfilly wrote: »

I’m on a first date tonight, definitely no kissing !!!!

No french kissing. The French had 11 cases of COVID19

cnocbui

Graces7 wrote: »

It has been repeatedly affirmed that the virus does not linger on packages etc! Come on now! Stop this!

I believe the earlier references were with respect to packages from China, which tend to take a while to arrive. As the virus has been stated to survive on surfaces for 9 days, which is greater than the Amazon distribution centre in the Uk delivery time to Ireland.

I think the possibility is probably very low, but I don't see why it is entirely implausible.

Drumpot

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/featured

Dr John now talking about potentially getting virus again.

In short I think hes saying there may be multiple types of Coronavirus and if you get it again you may get it more severely. Supposedly its possible with some other illness's (Dengue fever). Very interesting explanation.

bodhrandude

theguzman wrote: »

Surely this will now emerge in Ireland if it has been circulating undetected in Italy for the past few days/weeks?

So far South America is the last continent not infected but this will probably emerge there also due to the huge Italian links to Brazil and other South American nations.

Honduras has a case, only the one so far though.

cnocbui

tillyfilly wrote: »

First date tonight , does a kiss pass on the infection of the other is infected ?

Just shaking hands will do it. Kissing is a dead cert. if they pull out a tissue or cough at any points, scream and run and wash your hands.

EltonJohn69

Is this man made ? Synthetic ?

VinLieger

Really starting to frustrate me the absolute lack of information from our govenment or HSE, it needs to be repeated ad nauseum for people to not attend hospitals or GPS if they suspect they have it.

Also they need to update their weeks old warnings about it only being contractable if you visited china

cnocbui

Duke of Url wrote: »

When do we expect the dead people on the street videos?

There was one earlier in the thread purportedly showing wrapped bodies awaiting collection on the pavement in China.

tara73

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Is this man made ? Synthetic ?

haha, good luck with this question...:D

hmmm

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Is this man made ? Synthetic ?

The overwhelming consensus from reputable scientists is that it has all the hallmarks of an animal origin, specifically bats.

Drumpot

Wow, Dr John having all sorts of issues getting his planned live discussion out. Keeps buffering

Doctor Jimbob

Drumpot wrote: »

Wow, Dr John having all sorts of issues getting his planned live discussion out. Keeps buffering

Clearly the virus has mutated into a computer virus.

Drumpot

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Clearly the virus has mutated into a computer virus.

Somebody wrote on the live chat "stop using windows Dr John" :pac:

cnocbui

hmmm wrote: »

The overwhelming consensus from reputable scientists is that it has all the hallmarks of an animal origin, specifically bats.

Yes Bats. But guess what they have hundreds of at the Wuhan virology lab?

Was there any other possible pathway? We screened the area around the seafood market and identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus. Within ~280 meters from the market, there was the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention (WHCDC) (Figure 1, from Baidu and Google maps). WHCDC hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification 4-6. In one of their studies, 155 bats including Rhinolophus affiniswere captured in Hubei province, and other 450 bats were captured in Zhejiang province4. The expert in collection was noted in the Author Contributions (JHT). Moreover, he was broadcasted for collecting viruses on nation-wide newspapers and websites in 2017 and 20197,8. He described that he was once by attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days 7. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him. He was once thrilled for capturing a bat carrying a live tick 8. Surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing 4, 5. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were source of pathogens. They were only ~280 meters from the seafood market. The WHCDC was also adjacent to the Union Hospital (Figure 1, bottom) where the first group of doctors were infected during this epidemic. It is plausible that the virus leaked around and some of them contaminated the initial patients in this epidemic, though solid proofs are needed in future study.

https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.it/images/2020/02/16/114720192-5eb8307f-017c-4075-a697-348628da0204.pdf

Nonoperational

SeaBreezes wrote: »

My god the internet/thought police are out in force today!!!

Cinema Guy, don't stop, loving the wit. Its something I've always loved about the Irish, the ability to find the humour in any situation.

Life is short lads, gotta laugh when we can .

It's not the internet police at all. It's just sad, and I guess the reaction of certain people just reinforces that many people on this thread are young people with limited life experience. That in itself is fine and explains a lot. People have to learn. We all have to learn somewhere... I had suspected that this thread was mostly populated by teenagers and I suspect this is indeed the case. Or at least I hope it is the case lol

SeaBreezes

hmmm wrote: »

The overwhelming consensus from reputable scientists is that it has all the hallmarks of an animal origin, specifically bats.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha.
The ONLY overwhelming consensus is on the bugs name...
Everything else is still being learned.
A group in India ( the first to genomically sequence the virus)said it was unlikely to be natural but that paper was pulled.
Another group of chinese scientists said man made, and saying that publicly is suicide in China.. Other scientists say no, natural.
Nobody knows. They can't tell us the incubation rate, how it's spreading where it came from..
Consensus? Ha.

SeaBreezes

Nonoperational wrote: »

It's not the internet police at all. It's just sad, and I guess the reaction of certain people just reinforces that many people on this thread are young people with limited life experience. That in itself is fine and explains a lot. People have to learn. We all have to learn somewhere... I had suspected that this thread was mostly populated by teenagers and I suspect this is indeed the case. Or at least I hope it is the case lol

Do we lose our sense of humour too when we age? :-) well shoot...
Thought I'd lost enough already..

EltonJohn69

Imy about to throw on contagion.... the movie might send me over the edge..... but....the whiskey should counteract my inevitable hysteria.....

Duke of Url

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ha ha ha ha ha ha.
The ONLY overwhelming consensus is on the bugs name...
Everything else is still being learned.
A group in India ( the first to genomically sequence the virus)said it was unlikely to be natural but that paper was pulled.
Another group of chinese scientists said man made, and saying that publicly is suicide in China.. Other scientists say no, natural.
Nobody knows. They can't tell us the incubation rate, how it's spreading where it came from..
Consensus? Ha.

Sure people here were convinced that it was man made quoting a dodgy paper that claimed to find similarities between the new coronavirus and HIV.

tara73

Duke of Url wrote: »

Sure people here were convinced that it was man made quoting a dodgy paper that claimed to find similarities between the new coronavirus and HIV.

how do you know it's dodgy? which source is dodgy in this case and which not? honest question, not provocatively meant.

Hector Savage

Nurse John doing a live Q+A now
https://youtu.be/57fVBsJtwbA

cnocbui

Found some more on the virus and it's possible origins:

The role of Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, in spreading 2019-nCoV remains murky, though such sequencing, combined with sampling the market’s environment for the presence of the virus, is clarifying that it indeed had an important early role in amplifying the outbreak. The viral sequences, most researchers say, also knock down the idea the pathogen came from a virology institute in Wuhan.
...
Concerns about the institute predate this outbreak. Nature ran a story in 2017 about it building a new biosafety level 4 lab and included molecular biologist Richard Ebright of Rutgers University, Piscataway, expressing concerns about accidental infections, which he noted repeatedly happened with lab workers handling SARS in Beijing. Ebright, who has a long history of raising red flags about studies with dangerous pathogens, also in 2015 criticized an experiment in which modifications were made to a SARS-like virus circulating in Chinese bats to see whether it had the potential to cause disease in humans. Earlier this week, Ebright questioned the accuracy of Bedford’s calculation that there are at least 25 years of evolutionary distance between RaTG13—the virus held in the Wuhan virology institute—and 2019-nCoV, arguing that the mutation rate may have been different as it passed through different hosts before humans. Ebright tells ScienceInsider that the 2019-nCoV data are “consistent with entry into the human population as either a natural accident or a laboratory accident.”
...
Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, dismissed Ebright’s conjecture. “Every time there’s an emerging disease, a new virus, the same story comes out: This is a spillover or the release of an agent or a bioengineered virus,” Daszak says. “It’s just a shame. It seems humans can’t resist controversy and these myths, yet it’s staring us right in the face.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins

So basically the origin is still a mystery and no doubt there will continue to be conspiracy theories until the origin is pinned down

Nonoperational

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Do we lose our sense of humour too when we age? :-) well shoot...
Thought I'd lost enough already..

Oh no... we really don't. I have had massive banter reading this thread. It's genuinely great.

Ficheall

Nonoperational wrote: »

massive banter

Jesus Christ..

Duke of Url

tara73 wrote: »

how do you know it's dodgy? which source is dodgy in this case and which not? honest question, not provocatively meant.

Because Biorxiv Retracted their paper quick smart when there peers proved it to be incorrect and in their words “ shoddy science”

Now the paper says

Abstract

This paper has been withdrawn by its authors. They intend to revise it in response to comments received from the research community on their technical approach and their interpretation of the results. If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding author.

Cody montana

I popped some bubble wrap as a joke in work yesterday.

I’m sneezing today.

fritzelly

Another case in Milan - expect a lot more tomorrow

darjeeling

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/featured

Dr John now talking about potentially getting virus again.

In short I think hes saying there may be multiple types of Coronavirus and if you get it again you may get it more severely. Supposedly its possible with some other illness's (Dengue fever). Very interesting explanation.

I'd be skeptical of that. All the isolates so far have very similar genomes showing a very recent common ancestor in humans.

The phenomenon of more severe second infection, raised a few times now, does happen with dengue, but there are important distinctions between the diseases.

Dengue infects a class of white blood cells that are trying to mediate the immune response. These cells normally make contact with antibody-bound dengue in order to destroy it. But it appears that if the antibody is present at low levels or imperfectly binds to the virus because it's a highly divergent strain from that previously encountered, then the virus may not be rendered harmless by the time a white blood cell closes in to destroy it, and instead can get inside the cell and infect it.

The novel coronavirus does not infect white blood cells, but rather cells with ACE2 surface receptors, and these are primarily found in the alveoli at the termini of the airways in the lungs and in the small intestine.

EltonJohn69

Cody montana wrote: »

I popped some bubble wrap as a joke in work yesterday.

I’m sneezing today.

Read the bible and hope for the best is your only option now.

darjeeling

darjeeling wrote: »

That's what I'm thinking.

Any epidemic here is likely to play out over months, peaking a few months after person-to-person transmission takes hold, and taking months to fall away after that.
In terms of practical things people can do to prepare, that time scale is important.

For people at risk of a poor outcome should they be infected, but who can take steps to avoid getting it at all, it would make sense to figure how to avoid infection.
That could mean things like:

• figuring out where to get good reliable information and advice on the progression of the epidemic and how to take care of yourself
• bringing forward essential travel to avoid travelling when infection rates are higher
• bringing forward minor and routine medical appointments and procedures to avoid needing medical services at the height of an epidemic
• choosing to avoid social gatherings you might otherwise want to attend - e.g. large family events
• restricting contact generally with people who might be infected
• seeing if you can get your groceries delivered rather than having to go to busy supermarkets

For people who are going out to work, living in city centres, travelling on public transport, dealing with large numbers of customers, avoiding infection is going to be much harder.
Though at least most urban-dwelling, bus-commuting shop workers are likely to be younger and so at lower risk of adverse outcomes.

For businesses, plans should be made for avoiding cross-infection between staff where possible, for operating during higher than usual staff absence, for home working etc.
We had the flu run through our office in December, and about a quarter of us caught it by the end. Some people were out for over a week. This new virus could easily be more disruptive than that.

I am so glad I am retired from my job as a public library worker. All humanity uses the libraries, as it is quite a few library users have an appalling attitude to hygiene and return books covered in bodily “produce” of all kinds, and some of it is a product of being antisocial. Moreover customers frequently arrive in declaring “I have a bad flu and am off work, great to be able to come to the library and get my reading material”.