new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

ThePopehimself

fritzelly wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBHyBrbU6EI

Thank you so much for that Fritzelly.

fritzelly

YFlyer wrote: »

Surely it can mutate a variation of these 3 major ways? Depending on host and environmental conditions.

If the host was different then it could change again - animal to human to animal and back to human again - look at the common flu, a few variations but it never mutates to any degree where it changes how severe it is. So this new virus could go one of 3 ways
But I'm no epidemiologist so could be wrong.

BorneTobyWilde

SusanC10 wrote: »

IIRC - that sounds like Independence Day.

Susan is on it .

fritzelly

BanditLuke wrote: »

Stupid infectious disease experts, what do they know huh.

https://twitter.com/mxvxllxlll/status/1231330032355815424

It's what pisses me off about the Tedros guy saying we have a window of opportunity (like a million times).
We are now seeing it has been spread globally, indications were already there but he was acting like we could stop it in it's tracks
Can't wait to see what he says on Monday...we still have a window of opportunity, closely followed by some insinuation countries did not do enough to stop it while giving China a free pass.

fritzelly

Italy going full on CCP

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231351939633471488

BanditLuke

fritzelly wrote: »

Italy going full on CCP

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231351939633471488

And with good cause.

Kermit.de.frog

Situation is bad when you need to take such measures.

Hopefully they can contain it because this is our doorstep now.

fritzelly

Hubei Update

New Deaths - 96
New Confirmed - 630
Total Confirmed - 64,084

Serious/Critical - 10,698‬

In before BNO

VinLieger

fritzelly wrote: »

Italy going full on CCP

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231351939633471488

They are realising they are weeks late about taking this seriously so have to take pretty draconian but neccessary action just like every other european government is about to come to understand.

The WHO have a lot to answer for.

BanditLuke

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Situation is bad when you need to take such measures.

Hopefully they can contain it because this is our doorstep now.

It's the only option they have. Imagine the chaos if it reaches Rome and takes hold. It has kicked the living sh1t out of the Chinese economy and it's only getting going. This is 100% the correct approach

YFlyer

fritzelly wrote: »

If the host was different then it could change again - animal to human to animal and back to human again - look at the common flu, a few variations but it never mutates to any degree where it changes how severe it is. So this new virus could go one of 3 ways
But I'm no epidemiologist so could be wrong.

I'm not an epidemiologist either. Just wondering how the virus in one human host could mutate the same or similar to the virus in other human hosts elsewhere.

tom1ie

Ok. So let’s say for one minute the virus is gonna spread everywhere. Some say it won’t some say it will. I just don’t know, but let’s play devils advocate and say it spreads to every country.

What does that mean?
What age groups are most at risk? 70+ With underlying risks, or are we saying otherwise healthy 30+ are at risk?
Until we know the answer to this we are essentially pissing against the wind.

VinLieger

fritzelly wrote: »

Hubei Update

New Deaths - 96
New Confirmed - 630
Total Confirmed - 64,084

Serious/Critical - 10,698‬

In before BNO

Looks like this may hopefully be the Hubei peak and all it took was 3-4 week of total self isolation, could we manage to do the same?

fritzelly

VinLieger wrote: »

Looks like this may hopefully be the Hubei peak and all it took was 3-4 week of total self isolation, could we manage to do the same?

Self isolation is only really effective at slowing down the virus.
What happens when you release the lockdown? You could still have carriers then it all blows up again
Been a good few reports about isolation not working

VinLieger

tom1ie wrote: »

Ok. So let’s say for one minute the virus is gonna spread everywhere. Some say it won’t some say it will. I just don’t know, but let’s play devils advocate and say it spreads to every country.

What does that mean?
What age groups are most at risk? 70+ With underlying risks, or are we saying otherwise healthy 30+ are at risk?
Until we know the answer to this we are essentially pissing against the wind.

The standard groups are most at risk, immuno compromised and the elderly, good news is kids so far seem to be pretty resilient. However there are also reports of young(20s,30s) supposedly perfectly healthy people dying too, however this may simply be due to the intense and hands on treatment regime required and the hospitals in hubei being too overrun to provide this level of care.

We wont really know till this is all over though to be honest.

BanditLuke

VinLieger wrote: »

Looks like this may hopefully be the Hubei peak and all it took was 3-4 week of total self isolation, could we manage to do the same?

I wouldn't beleive the official figures for a minute but let's throw common sense out the window for a minute and say it's accurate imagine what 3-4 weeks of self isolation for a city the size of Dublin would do to our economy, or London to the UK economy etc... and that's before we even realise we haven't got the will to stop a group of thugs racing horses down a motorway nevermind lockdown a city.

We also don't have the know how or work ethic to build the required hospitals within weeks if needed.

fr336

tom1ie wrote: »

Ok. So let’s say for one minute the virus is gonna spread everywhere. Some say it won’t some say it will.

Can you let us know who is saying it won't as I need some relief lol

fritzelly

YFlyer wrote: »

I'm not an epidemiologist either. Just wondering how the virus in one human host could mutate the same or similar to the virus in other human hosts elsewhere.

I guess because the cells they infect are the same for everyone so mutations follow the same pattern, whereas in animals they can behave differently and infect the animal differently and may attach to different cells helping the mutation take a worse or less worse turn.
Tried looking it up but cannot find anything explaining why the common cold for example doesn't turn in to something beyond a runny nose and sore throat

Any virologists on Boards?

s7ryf3925pivug

The Guardian said that it is stable and not given to mutating. Therefore I don't think mutation is something worth worrying about at this point.

I think the same form of the virus is infecting humans and animals. One thing they are advising is to cook animal food fully and to be extra careful with the raw product because they don't know what animals might carry it.

fritzelly

For all the bio-weapon/release virus conspiracy theorists out there, here's something to quench your thirst

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

Disclaimer
I do not in any way endorse anything written in the NY Post

VinLieger

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

The Guardian said that it is stable and not given to mutating. Therefore I don't think mutation is something worth worrying about at this point.

****ing morons, 2 days ago Italy only had 3 cases.... We dont know anything about this virus to be able to say nything ofnthe sort for certain

tom1ie

VinLieger wrote: »

The standard groups are most at risk, immuno compromised and the elderly, good news is kids so far seem to be pretty resilient. However there are also reports of young(20s,30s) supposedly perfectly healthy people dying too, however this may simply be due to the intense and hands on treatment regime required and the hospitals in hubei being too overrun to provide this level of care.

We wont really know till this is all over though to be honest.

Thanks.
This is the third time I’ve asked this particular question since the middle of jan.
seems to me no one know how bad this damn thing is. We can’t depend on China’s numbers and we can’t generate an at risk group from the data as the data is all over the place.
We are hearing about 20’s 30’s dying because areas are overwhelmed, but this is hearsay.
What hard evidence do we have that these people are either an outlyer and not the norm or fair game as much as 70+ Age group cases

Call Me Jimmy

fritzelly wrote: »

Any virologists on Boards?

I don't know how to put this but... we're kind of a big deal.

SeaBreezes

VinLieger wrote: »

The standard groups are most at risk, immuno compromised and the elderly, good news is kids so far seem to be pretty resilient. However there are also reports of young(20s,30s) supposedly perfectly healthy people dying too, however this may simply be due to the intense anf hands on treatment regime required and the hospitals in hubei being too overrun to provide this level of care.

We wont really know till this is all over though to be honest.

Also smokers, ex-smokers, underlying cardiac issues, and re-infection/relapse which seems to be more serious, possibly fatal but only rumour at this stage.

In China's defence, watching the Horrific videos on Twitter, CCP is finished from trying to contain this. The people will never forgive this. One thing to watch 'others' being dragged off, when it happens to you... Not so quick to forgive.
And the CCP couldn't stop this bug. Crashed their own economy, quarantined 760 million people, (that's twice the size of US pop) and couldn't stop it. They are not doing this for a 'flu' or a fatality rate of 2.5%.

I can't see any other country being able to do the same.

Interesting WHO announced they were working with stats people 2 days ago. Still waiting for that report.

tom1ie

fr336 wrote: »

Can you let us know who is saying it won't as I need some relief lol

Well a lot of people on this thread for starters!! I’m not one of them btw. I think it’ll hit here fairly soon if not already, (I was at the Bord gais theatre during the week and the fukcing coughing was unreal, but anyway.....)
When/If it does I’m only interested in the at risk group profile.

fritzelly

VinLieger wrote: »

****ing morons, 2 days ago Italy only had 3 cases.... We dont know anything about this virus to be able to say nything of this sort for certain

The very nature of RNA viruses is that they do mutate and quickly

darjeeling

fritzelly wrote: »

I guess because the cells they infect are the same for everyone so mutations follow the same pattern, whereas in animals they can behave differently and infect the animal differently and may attach to different cells helping the mutation take a worse or less worse turn.
Tried looking it up but cannot find anything explaining why the common cold for example doesn't turn in to something beyond a runny nose and sore throat

Any virologists on Boards?

I'm not a virologist either! (geneticist & bioinformatician)

Anyway, the classic textbook example going back to my undergrad is myxomatosis in rabbits in Australia.

The virus was introduced by humans as a means of pest control in the 1950s. The initial strain was highly lethal, but mutations over time led to strains that killed fewer hosts, and therefore a better chance of being passed on before the host died.

More recent work shows that the rabbits themselves have evolved to be less susceptible to the earlier strains, and that the virus has now evolved again by becoming more virulent.

As for comparisons with coronavirus, the initial myxo strain used had near 100% case fatality rate, so it does'nt really compare. Also, the rabbit-myxo arms race has been happening over 70 years, whereas we can hope have to an effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in a year or so.

Someone asked if there was a SARS vaccine. No, because SARS died out so work was stopped. But the work that was done should inform the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development as the two viruses are genetically very similar.

Charles Babbage

hmmm wrote: »

Lots of debate, but some of the better scientists forecast the epidemic doubling every 6.4 days https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

That looks like about 4-5 months. That also assumes there are no public health interventions to slow it down, which there will be. The health authorities will push to spread out the peak rather than have it happen over a short time.

It will not spread as quickly in the summer and of course there will be increasing interventions. The hope would be to delay widespread problems until there are better diagnostic tests, some indication of suitable treatments and ultimately a vaccine. .

SeaBreezes wrote: »

And the CCP couldn't stop this bug. Crashed their own economy, quarantined 760 million people, (that's twice the size of US pop) and couldn't stop it. They are not doing this for a 'flu' or a fatality rate of 2.5%.

By simple sums, the fatality rate you suggest would mean 17m dead for that number of people. Are you saying that 14m deaths would not warrent this effort, that is actually worse?

s7ryf3925pivug

I have no idea and there is loads of contradictory information online. [Apparently Russia has launched a misinformation campaign about it which seeks to blame the USA.] Here is the article I was thinking of anyway:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

A key point I was interested in:

It’s worth noting that coronaviruses do not undergo the same type of genome shuffling that leads to the constantly shifting variety of flu strains in circulation. It is this genetic drift that means new flu vaccines have to be created each year and that means getting the flu once does not mean you’ll be immune next time it comes around. The coronavirus is not expected to mutate this rapidly and so once a vaccine is here, it should continue to work far into the future.

fritzelly

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I have no idea and there is loads of contradictory information online. [Apparently Russia has launched a misinformation campaign about it which seeks to blame the USA.] Here is the article I was thinking of anyway:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

A key point I was interested in:

One sentence saying coronaviruses mutate and that's the reason you keep catching flu and in the next they don't expect this one to mutate

Doh

s7ryf3925pivug

fritzelly wrote: »

One sentence saying coronaviruses mutate and that's the reason you keep catching flu and in the next they don't expect this one to mutate

Doh

The flu isn't a coronavirus. They specifically say it's not like the flu in terms of its mutation behaviour.

Martina1991

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote:

The flu isn't a coronavirus. They specifically say it's not like the flu in terms of its mutation behaviour.

Both influenza and Coronavirus are RNA viruses.

Which can mutate.

YFlyer

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I have no idea and there is loads of contradictory information online. [Apparently Russia has launched a misinformation campaign about it which seeks to blame the USA.] Here is the article I was thinking of anyway:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

A key point I was interested in:

Some Iranian Iman is blaming the US as well.

fritzelly

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

The flu isn't a coronavirus. They specifically say it's not like the flu in terms of its mutation behaviour.

Misread it

Ah well here's a report on how coronaviruses do mutate and quickly
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200210-coronavirus-finding-a-cure-to-fight-the-symptoms

s7ryf3925pivug

Martina1991 wrote: »

Both influenza and Coronavirus are RNA viruses.

Which can mutate.

Yeah it doesn't say it won't mutate, just that it's relatively stable. From an evolutionary perspective, mutations that lower lethality are more likely to survive than ones that make it more deadly.

Tests so far suggest that the coronavirus is relatively stable but as it is passed from human to human the virus will become more adapted as a human disease. This is not necessarily a bad thing, though. “In Darwinian terms, the virus wants to survive,” said Smith. “And to do that it’s generally not a sensible idea for a virus to kill people. The most successful viruses infect a lot of people and cause relatively little pathology.”

citysights

BanditLuke wrote: »

I wouldn't beleive the official figures for a minute but let's throw common sense out the window for a minute and say it's accurate imagine what 3-4 weeks of self isolation for a city the size of Dublin would do to our economy, or London to the UK economy etc... and that's before we even realise we haven't got the will to stop a group of thugs racing horses down a motorway nevermind lockdown a city.

We also don't have the know how or work ethic to build the required hospitals within weeks if needed.

In saying all that look at how compliant people are in heedig storm warnings here.Thinking back especially to Ophelia. I reckon Irish people would co operate with every measure to stop the spread were it to arrive here, Here’s hoping anyway...

Kermit.de.frog

Good that Italy is taking tough measures.

I have a feeling that maybe this has peaked and is in retreat in China, even though the figures are dubious. We may look back in 9 months wondering what the fuss was about.

MD1990

very worrying from a Dr John video.

he heard from a Iranian colleague that the Fatality Rate in Iran is much higher than 2%.

tom1ie

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Good that Italy is taking tough measures.

I have a feeling that maybe this has peaked and is in retreat in China, even though the figures are dubious. We may look back in 9 months wondering what the fuss was about.

Hopefully but the evidence to back up that or even to back up an idea of the opposite just isn’t there.
It’s a mystery as to how virulent this is and what mortality rate it brings with it over what age/ health groups you belong to.

Doctor Jimbob

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Good that Italy is taking tough measures.

I have a feeling that maybe this has peaked and is in retreat in China, even though the figures are dubious. We may look back in 9 months wondering what the fuss was about.

I think we should bring in tough measures here. Specifically, working from home should be enforced effective immediately. For at least a month. Just to be safe.

tom1ie

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I think we should bring in tough measures here. Specifically, working from home should be enforced effective immediately. For at least a month. Just to be safe.

I AGREE LOL!

tom1ie

MD1990 wrote: »

very worrying from a Dr John video.

he heard from a Iranian colleague that the Fatality Rate in Iran is much higher than 2%.

So what was the rate?

Charles Babbage

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I have no idea and there is loads of contradictory information online. [Apparently Russia has launched a misinformation campaign about it which seeks to blame the USA.] Here is the article I was thinking of anyway:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

A key point I was interested in:

If a vaccine would remain effective then all the more reason to deploy every effort to hold the pox back until one becomes available.

fritzelly

Go Italy

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231367084296298496

wakka12

18 Italians seriously ill with coronavirus

tom1ie

wakka12 wrote: »

18 Italians seriously ill with coronavirus

What age are they?

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

18 Italians seriously ill with coronavirus

Makes you wonder if the reports in Iran saying people are literally getting symptoms and dying within days is true
Has it mutated into a worse strain

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

18 Italians seriously ill with coronavirus

Are they on vntilators?

wakka12

creditcarder wrote: »

Are they on vntilators?

I don't think people in serious condition require them yet

tom1ie

creditcarder wrote: »

Are they on vntilators?

Lots of questions