new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

scotchy

lemoncorona wrote: »

so tinfoil hats off and facemasks on

.

bodhrandude

2 more deaths in South Korea bringing the total there to 4 now and 123 new cases. (Guardian).

joseywhales

Still not bothered, leaving India today after five weeks, have seen no sign, no people with facemasks etc.

To keep some context 3,287 people die per day from traffic accidents, I have yet to be even injured in a traffic accident.

scotchy

North Korea orders cargo arriving in the country to be isolated for 10 days and fully disinfected to prevent coronavirus.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231457408825937922

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Pablo Escobar

joseywhales wrote: »

Still not bothered, leaving India today after five weeks, have seen no sign, no people with facemasks etc.

To keep some context 3,287 people die per day from traffic accidents, I have yet to be even injured in a traffic accident.

So what you’re saying is that the likely pandemic won’t affect you as you’re a competent driver?

darjeeling

Italy's deputy health minister (who is a surgeon & co-author of multiple immunology-related papers, so ought to know) said that the presumed patient zero at the source of the new Italian outbreak "did not develop antibodies" to SARS-CoV-2 (news story link).

Does this mean that they are now doing serological testing for antibodies that would indicate if patients have been exposed to the virus?

Testing to date has mostly been real-time RT-PCR testing for the viral genome, which is slow & unreliable, so a simple, fast and accurate antibody test for exposure is urgently needed.

A Wuhan lab (yes, *that* one) published a study two weeks ago in which they say they developed antibody testing for the virus (link), and another Chinese lab reported last week having developed an IgM/IgG antibody test kit (news story link)

The WHO page still only lists RT-PCR tests, and no antibody test.

It would be good to know what the state of play is here.

Graces7

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Yep, and instead of stock piling food I wonder if it made more sense to slow down on social activities like going to the pub/concerts/etc.
Those are the places where people got infected in Italy
Also Companies could start implementing work from home as a preventive safety measure
It may sound extreme now, but it's better than having to do it later once half the city is infected!

As well as getting essential supplies in surely. No use working from home then having to go to busy shops ?

Graces7

cnocbui wrote: »

I believe the earlier references were with respect to packages from China, which tend to take a while to arrive. As the virus has been stated to survive on surfaces for 9 days, which is greater than the Amazon distribution centre in the Uk delivery time to Ireland.

I think the possibility is probably very low, but I don't see why it is entirely implausible.

Source please?

Graces7

cnocbui wrote: »

I have jumped from just a 10m diving board, and I can tell you, if you don't hit the water dead straight, the bit of you that slaps the water hurts like stink. One time the impact was on my back and the pain was like a big electric shock.

From 50m you would hit the water doing 113 kph

OUCH!

Graces7

cnocbui wrote: »

While some people have mentioned acquiring more supplies than normal, the next thing I'm going to do is get in some Vitamin D supplements. I have been meaning to for a while but it's one of those things that i don't seem to get around to. Basically, vitamin D seems to play a significant role in preventing/fighting respiratory diseases.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/vitamin-d/

I have seen some suggestion that ME may be an auto-immune disease and vitamin D seems to play a role in preventing/damping autoimmune activity.

Ebay, here I come.

When I was finally diagnosed with M.E./CFIDS I read all the literature there was and bought every supplement alleged to help. Only thing affected was my bank account so now I rely on diet and an older person;s vitamin pill when I remember.
It was once mooted the eating liquorish would relieve M.E and we are highly motivated .. sadly a few died of liver/kidney failure eating too much.

A good diet should give all we need to fight infection but if it helps you feel you are doing more? Great.

And different things help different folk .

Graces7

VinLieger wrote: »

Really starting to frustrate me the absolute lack of information from our govenment or HSE, it needs to be repeated ad nauseum for people to not attend hospitals or GPS if they suspect they have it.

Also they need to update their weeks old warnings about it only being contractable if you visited china

Google HSE coronavirus please. Plenty of info there.

VinLieger

Graces7 wrote: »

Google HSE coronavirus please. Plenty of info there.

Like i said its woefully out of date as they still are only saying peiple traveling from china are at risk.

Also it shouldnt require a google it needs to be pushed out on all media platforms, tv, radio and social, expecting people to google what to do is ridiculous and childishly naive as many are still not aware of it or its dangers so will cluelessly attend a gp or go to an A and E.

The key to this is being proactive so we dont have to do what Italy is currently doing and implement severe draconian policies due to being weeks behind however i fear we are probably too late

pc7

Any word on figures in Hong Kong? Have they controlled it?
Italian government doing all they can, you would think preemptively other EU countries would suspend large gatherings/games/concerts etc now

VinLieger

pc7 wrote: »

Any word on figures in Hong Kong? Have they controlled it?
Italian government doing all they can, you would think preemptively other EU countries would suspend large gatherings/games/concerts etc now

You would think this wouldnt you, the lack of action is absolutely criminal and i mean literally because many people are going to die who wouldn't have if governments had taken this seriously weeks ago.

I worry they are still taking their lead from the WHO who have been asleep at the wheel, they literally said at the end of the friday brieifing, "we will see you all on monday"..... In the middle of a pandemic they are taking the weekend off.... Thats how seriously they are taking this.

And anyone who says 48 hours of a weekend wont make a difference Italy went from 3 to 80+ cases in the last 48 hours.

givyjoe

joseywhales wrote: »

Still not bothered, leaving India today after five weeks, have seen no sign, no people with facemasks etc.

To keep some context 3,287 people die per day from traffic accidents, I have yet to be even injured in a traffic accident.

Another excellent analogy

Except imagine cars have just been invented, give it time and your chance of being in that "traffic accident" will increase.

dwayneshintzy

pc7 wrote: »

Any word on figures in Hong Kong? Have they controlled it?
Italian government doing all they can, you would think preemptively other EU countries would suspend large gatherings/games/concerts etc now

Two cases confirmed today, one yesterday, number is at 72 total now.

grind gremlin

Any chance the poor air quality in large parts of China could be a contributing factor? Would more people have compromised immune systems as a result of long term exposure?

wadacrack

WHO have to put the Global alert to very high now and prepare countries about quarantine measures and isolation. They need to start preparing countries for the worst not talking about a window of opportunity

s7ryf3925pivug

grind gremlin wrote: »

Any chance the poor air quality in large parts of China could be a contributing factor? Would more people have compromised immune systems as a result of long term exposure?

Yes. The air quality is worse in some Irish towns during the winter because of solid fuel use. Wexford and Enniscorthy are particularly bad because the smoke doesn't dissipate due to geographical features. Unfortunately it won't just be people who burn smoky coal who might die.

gozunda

VinLieger wrote: »

Like i said its woefully out of date as they still are only saying peiple traveling from china are at risk.

Also it shouldnt require a google it needs to be pushed out on all media platforms, tv, radio and social, exfpecting people to google what to do is ridiculous and childishly naive as many are still not aware of it or its dangers so will cluelessly attend a gp or go to an A and E.

The key to this is being proactive so we dont have to do what Italy is currently doing and implement severe draconian policies due to being weeks behind however i fear we are probably too late

That HSE Corona page is little better than a wet hanky imho. Useless. No advice or emergency contacts on the page for anyone reporting a possible Coronavirus infection. Ditto no advice at all about staying away from A&E and GP surgeries.

And again the only 'at risk' groups are those who may have been in "mainland China in the last 14 days" Evidently the HSE believe theres been no spread of infection at all...

This HSE page shows exactly how under resourced our hospitals are. Figures in red show the numbers waiting on trollies (the HSE hilariously refer to these patients as "trolley waiters"). The increase rate for those waiting to be seen is up approx 20% on this time last year.

Not a hope in hell patients with severe symptoms or those that may be in need of ICU resources are going to have a decent chance under the current system.

Ms2011

My niece is due to fly to Milian on March 16th for a week as an exchange student, what will be the likely impact on this do you think?

Pablo Escobar

Ms2011 wrote: »

My niece is due to fly to Milian on March 16th for a week as an exchange student, what will be the likely impact on this do you think?

At a guess, yes it will. But all will become more clear over the next 48 to 72 hours I would think.

Sean 18

HSE page is a total joke all it says if you've recently travelled from China no word of it spreading in Italy etc no wonder this country has the worst health system

VinLieger

Ms2011 wrote: »

My niece is due to fly to Milian on March 16th for a week as an exchange student, what will be the likely impact on this do you think?

I would say its very unlikely the trip will go ahead, id be surprised if we didnt start seeing Europe wide travel restrictions beginning in the next 2 weeks starting with Italy

pc7

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Two cases confirmed today, one yesterday, number is at 72 total now.

That’s seems totally unbelievable looking at Italian figures, very odd.

Graces7

gozunda wrote: »

That HSE Corona page is little better than a wet hanky imho. Useless. No advice or emergency contacts for anyone reporting a possible Coronavirus infection. Ditto no advice at all about staying away from A&E and GP surgeries.

And again the only 'at risk' groups are those who may have been in "mainland China in the last 14 days" Evidently the HSE believe theres been no spread of infection at all...

This HSE page shows exactly how under resourced our hospitals are. Figures in red show the numbers waiting on trollies (the HSE hilariously refer to these patients as "trolley waiters"). The increase rate for those waiting to be seen is up approx 20% on this time last year.

Not a hope in hell patients with severe symptoms or those that may be in need of ICU resources are going to have a decent chance under the current system.

Interesting as I gleaned all the info you say is not available from news items online. Very clearly indeed,

Just checked and see Irish Times and other reports January 20th plus. Says eg what to do and not to do if you think you are infected

and re isolation units ready.

In reality until and unless it arrives here there is little else that can be done.

.

Hector Savage

Very worrying indeed, the only positives I can think of is at least now with the situation in Italy and S. Korea we will get accurate data and information - can't trust the Chinese.

SEPT 23 1989

Can't be any worse than this ****ing hangover

VinLieger

Graces7 wrote: »

Interesting as I gleaned all the info you say is not available from news items online. Very clearly indeed,

Or are you seeking to be spoonfed?

Jesus how hard is it for you to understand this?

You proactively sought this info out but the average person on the street is oblivious to all this and 100% needs to be spoonfed.

Also the fact that the HSEs own official info page still is only indicating travel from china as being an issue shows they are woefully un prepared and they arent doing anything to try keep the public informed

Kermit.de.frog

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Can't be any worse than this ****ing hangover

Awww poor baby

We might see travel restrictions sooner rather than later in Europe but hopefully this is an isolated cluster of cases in Italy.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Awww poor baby

We might see travel restrictions sooner rather than later in Europe but hopefully this is an isolated cluster of cases in Italy.

Im not hopeful about it being isolated tbh, maybe if they had caught it a week ago but with 80 odd cases being confirmed in 48 hours I don't see how this hasn't already spread outside the quarantine zones

Sean 18

None of this would have happened if China had sorted it out in December

joseywhales

Or maybe it's just not that serious a situation and stronger measures would cause more issues than they would solve?

Graces7

VinLieger wrote: »

Jesus how hard is it for you to understand this?

You proactively sought this info out but the average person on the street is oblivious to all this and 100% needs to be spoonfed.

Also the fact that the HSEs own official info page still is only indicating travel from china as being an issue shows they are woefully un prepared and they arent doing anything to try keep the public informed

I just updated my comment and gave one source of information showing your post to be inaccurate. There are many others, in papers, on the news.

There is all the preparation there can be given there are no cases yet.

and it was all on news? I do not have TV or radio and just glance at news items online and I saw it clearly weeks ago.

Using an old phrase; have some cop on! Mostly just common sense as so many great posts here show clearly.

Graces7

joseywhales wrote: »

Or maybe it's just not that serious a situation and stronger measures would cause more issues than they would solve?

A strong possibility indeed.

There are no measures possible until and unless; apart from what is suggested here as simple common sense eg keeping food and water stocks up.

HSE have assured that there are isolation units ready …GPs have hazmat suits ready; that was on news reports weeks ago, and it has been given out clearly not to attend a and e but to call the GP and get advice what to do.

There was a much fuller version than the one I referred to on either rte or breaking news web sites

Eyes are sore so please can someone check that to reassure folk? Thank you, I had no idea people had not read this .

Indestructable

113 cases in Italy now.

dekbhoy

Thing are starting to get serious now. will spread like wild fire if it hits irelands shores. We dont have the capability to contain it. World needs a vaccine Fast.

VinLieger

Graces7 wrote: »

I just updated my comment and gave one source of information showing your post to be inaccurate. There are many others, in papers, on the news.

There is all the preparation there can be given there are no cases yet.

and it was all on news? I do not have TV or radio and just glance at news items online and I saw it clearly weeks ago.

Using an old phrase; have some cop on! Mostly just common sense as so many great posts here show clearly.

Go into your local pub ask the barflies if they know what to do or what it is, go into your local newsagent and do the same for those behind the till or the customers , go into your local fast food restaurant and again repeat the same, i have no faith that many will know what your talking about let alone know what to do and again you are ignoring the HSEs own official info and guidelines being weeks out of date.

A few articles in the Irish times website is not enough, nowhere near enough has been done to inform the public, we need front page articles on every publication repeating the exact same info, we need it being repeated on radio and tv news bulletins several times a day.

Your attitude of the info is there for people to find is pathetic, it needs to be shoved in peoples faces at every oppurtunity

VinLieger

dekbhoy wrote: »

Thing are starting to get serious now. will spread like wild fire if it hits irelands shores. We dont have the capability to contain it. World needs a vaccine Fast.

We are months away from even human trials for a vaccine

gozunda

Graces7 wrote: »

Interesting as I gleaned all the info you say is not available from news items online. Very clearly indeed,
Just checked and see Irish Times and other reports January 20th plus. Says eg what to do and not to do if you think you are infected
and re isolation units ready.In reality until and unless it arrives here there is little else that can be done. .

"News items online"?

Really? That HSE page (the one you recommended btw as having all the information) couldnt be updated to reflect the current situation? Or provide relevant and updated advice?

No advice on not attending A&E or GP surgeries. Check

No emergency contacts unless "you've been in "mainland China in the last 14 days". Check

No info on "isolation units"? Just checked and not a dickey bird - whatever they are ..
So 'Source please' there

Sure we can all google - that said the media is not the best source for health advice by any stretch of the imagination.

Heres the UKs NHS Corona virus information webpage - perhaps they should take some notes ...

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

MD1990

22% now of all cases in serious/critical condition.

This is going up. This is not including people that can't be seen as well.

Next 4-6 weeks are going to be crucial.

Gynoid

Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study Xiaobo Yang*, Yuan Yu*, Jiqian Xu*, Huaqing Shu*, Jia’an Xia*, Hong Liu*, Yongran Wu, Lu Zhang, Zhui Yu, Minghao Fang, Ting Yu, Yaxin Wang, Shangwen Pan, Xiaojing Zou, Shiying Yuan, You Shang

Published in The Lancet Feb 21st 2020

Summary

Background
An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia associated with the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in December, 2019, in Wuhan, China. Information about critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is scarce. We aimed to describe the clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

Methods
In this single-centered, retrospective, observational study, we enrolled 52 critically ill adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Wuhan Jin Yin-tan hospital (Wuhan, China) between late December, 2019, and Jan 26, 2020. Demographic data, symptoms, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes were all collected. Data were compared between survivors and non-survivors. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, as of Feb 9, 2020. Secondary outcomes included incidence of SARS-CoV-2-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the proportion of patients requiring mechanical ventilation.

Findings
Of 710 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, 52 critically ill adult patients were included. The mean age of the 52 patients was 59·7 (SD 13·3) years, 35 (67%) were men, 21 (40%) had chronic illness, 51 (98%) had fever. 32 (61·5%) patients had died at 28 days, and the median duration from admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) to death was 7 (IQR 3–11) days for non-survivors. Compared with survivors, non-survivors were older (64·6 years [11·2]
vs 51·9 years [12·9]), more likely to develop ARDS (26 [81%] patients vs 9 [45%] patients), and more likely to receive mechanical ventilation (30 [94%] patients vs 7 [35%] patients), either invasively or non-invasively. Most patients had
organ function damage, including 35 (67%) with ARDS, 15 (29%) with acute kidney injury, 12 (23%) with cardiac injury, 15 (29%) with liver dysfunction, and one (2%) with pneumothorax. 37 (71%) patients required mechanical ventilation. Hospital-acquired infection occurred in seven (13·5%) patients.
Interpretation The mortality of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is considerable. The survival time of
the non-survivors is likely to be within 1–2 weeks after ICU admission. Older patients (>65 years) with comorbidities and ARDS are at increased risk of death. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia poses great strain on critical care resources in hospitals, especially if they are not adequately staffed or resourced.




Seems to be a horrible illness for sure.

BanditLuke

MD1990 wrote: »

22% now of all cases in serious/critical condition.

This is going up. This is not including people that can't be seen as well.

Next 4-6 weeks are going to be crucial.

The hospitals here will be over run within days of an outbreak if those numbers are even partly true. There is going to be a lot of angry people asking why we didn't take the measures required earlier.

gozunda

Gynoid wrote: »

Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study Xiaobo Yang*, Yuan Yu*, Jiqian Xu*, Huaqing Shu*, Jia’an Xia*, Hong Liu*, Yongran Wu, Lu Zhang, Zhui Yu, Minghao Fang, Ting Yu, Yaxin Wang, Shangwen Pan, Xiaojing Zou, Shiying Yuan, You Shang

Published in The Lancet Feb 21st 2020

Summary

Background
An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia associated with the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in December, 2019, in Wuhan, China. Information about critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is scarce. We aimed to describe the clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

Methods
In this single-centered, retrospective, observational study, we enrolled 52 critically ill adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Wuhan Jin Yin-tan hospital (Wuhan, China) between late December, 2019, and Jan 26, 2020. Demographic data, symptoms, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes were all collected. Data were compared between survivors and non-survivors. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, as of Feb 9, 2020. Secondary outcomes included incidence of SARS-CoV-2-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the proportion of patients requiring mechanical ventilation.

Findings
Of 710 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, 52 critically ill adult patients were included. The mean age of the 52 patients was 59·7 (SD 13·3) years, 35 (67%) were men, 21 (40%) had chronic illness, 51 (98%) had fever. 32 (61·5%) patients had died at 28 days, and the median duration from admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) to death was 7 (IQR 3–11) days for non-survivors. Compared with survivors, non-survivors were older (64·6 years [11·2]
vs 51·9 years [12·9]), more likely to develop ARDS (26 [81%] patients vs 9 [45%] patients), and more likely to receive mechanical ventilation (30 [94%] patients vs 7 [35%] patients), either invasively or non-invasively. Most patients had
organ function damage, including 35 (67%) with ARDS, 15 (29%) with acute kidney injury, 12 (23%) with cardiac injury, 15 (29%) with liver dysfunction, and one (2%) with pneumothorax. 37 (71%) patients required mechanical ventilation. Hospital-acquired infection occurred in seven (13·5%) patients.
Interpretation The mortality of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is considerable. The survival time of
the non-survivors is likely to be within 1–2 weeks after ICU admission. Older patients (>65 years) with comorbidities and ARDS are at increased risk of death. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia poses great strain on critical care resources in hospitals, especially if they are not adequately staffed or resourced.

Seems to be a horrible illness for sure.

Thanks for the article. I've highlighted a number of sections which I believe are going to make this a very difficult outbreak to manage imo.

tara73

just read 48 german people from the Princess Diamond landed in Berlin-Tegel and they should self-isolate at home...speechless here. Are the authorities nuts? They need to be in supervised quarantine like the ones flewn out from Wuhan.
Nobody obviously wants to pay or organise the supervised quarantine so let them quarantine themself...
believe me, the 'big nations' here in the EU are not better prepared than the smaller ones.

BanditLuke

Only the flu

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51602007

Sean 18

Yes this should be front page news now not mary Lou MacDonald etc I'd say it's going to start getting out of control in Italy soon enough

MD1990

BanditLuke wrote: »

Only the flu

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51602007

lost count amount of times I have seen you do this now.

Give it a rest

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231518560465367042

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231493971320459265

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231523218177040384

BanditLuke

MD1990 wrote: »

lost count amount of times I have seen you do this now.

Give it a rest

You know where the report button is?

Thanks, Luke