new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Duke of Url

MD1990 wrote: »

22% now of all cases in serious/critical condition.

This is going up. This is not including people that can't be seen as well.

Next 4-6 weeks are going to be crucial.

Wrong. 22% of medically confirm cases.

BanditLuke

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231518560465367042

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231493971320459265

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231523218177040384

The numbers in Iran are stunningly grave.

I wonder if this is the true fatality rate percentage and the Chinese cover up of numbers is true?

Sean 18

BanditLuke wrote: »

The numbers in Iran are stunningly grave.

I wonder if this is the true fatality rate percentage and the Chinese cover up of numbers is true?

Jesus shocking

Duke of Url

BanditLuke wrote: »

The numbers in Iran are stunningly grave.

I wonder if this is the true fatality rate percentage and the Chinese cover up of numbers is true?

Is South Korea in cahoots with China on the cover up?

BanditLuke

Duke of Url wrote: »

Is South Korea in cahoots with China on the cover up?

Good point. Bizarre that it's swings wildly from country to country. Possibly mutated in Iran??

wylo

BanditLuke wrote: »

The numbers in Iran are stunningly grave.

I wonder if this is the true fatality rate percentage and the Chinese cover up of numbers is true?

By that logic Italy and lots of other countries would have a lot more deaths by now.

BanditLuke

BanditLuke wrote: »

Good point. Bizarre that it's swings wildly from country to country. Possibly mutated in Iran??

That would not be good news if it mutates so readily. Would mean we have several life-threatening viruses in circulation, one more deadly than the other. If true.

Duke of Url

BanditLuke wrote: »

Good point. Bizarre that it's swings wildly from country to country. Possibly mutated in Iran??

Well you can look at it 3 ways.

Iran reporting 18% fatalities rate

Korea reporting 0.8% fatalities rate

China reporting 2% fatalities rate

It’s impossible to know which one is closest.

All 3 don’t know how many people are infected.

Graces7

gozunda wrote: »

"News items online"?

Really? That HSE page (the one you recommended btw as having all the information) couldnt be updated to reflect the current situation? Or provide relevant and updated advice?

No advice on not attending A&E or GP surgeries. Check

No emergency contacts unless "you've been in "mainland China in the last 14 days". Check

No info on "isolation units"? Just checked and not a dickey bird - whatever they are ..
So 'Source please' there

Sure we can all google - that said the media is not the best source for health advice by any stretch of the imagination.

Heres the UKs NHS Corona virus information webpage - perhaps they should take some notes ...

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

As is usual for you, you are stonily determined to see and think the worst and de depressed and angry


I did nto seek this out; I check the news daily is all and all I say was there was there.
Not going to waste what little energy I have on you.

As I said when I updated my post, there are numerous reports of the fuller HSE statements

None so blind as those who will nto see who enjoy anger and spreading gloom and doom

All that is possible at this stage is in place. And the suspected cases have been capably dealt with,

BanditLuke

Deleted User wrote: »

That would not be good news if it mutates so readily. Would mean we have several life-threatening viruses in circulation, one more deadly than the other. If true.

Yes indeed but far too early to tell at present. Those numbers from Iran are bleak though.

volchitsa

BanditLuke wrote: »

The numbers in Iran are stunningly grave.

I wonder if this is the true fatality rate percentage and the Chinese cover up of numbers is true?

Far more likely that Iran doesn't have the means to identify the majority of cases. The Italian situation seems to show that the rate of infection is the real issue - dozens of positive cases and two deaths (so far) all originating from one man who didn't even go to China.

That is almost as worrying as the higher death rate would be, because it means we won't be able to prevent uncontrollable spread: it will probably become a pandemic and perhaps epidemic as well, returning repeatedly in new forms. Rather more deadly than the flu and with no vaccine available at all, like the cold.

Even with a relatively low death rate, the economic and health consequences would be enormous.

silverharp

For Iran I'm going to go with under testing so a more self selecting sample. Would just mean more people have it and dont know or just not bothering to report

BanditLuke

volchitsa wrote: »

Far more likely that Iran doesn't have the means to identify the majority of cases. The Italian situation seems to show that the rate of infection is the real issue - dozens of positive cases and two deaths (so far) all originating from one man who didn't even go to China.

That is almost as worrying as the higher death rate would be, because it means we won't be able to prevent uncontrollable spread: it will probably become a pandemic and perhaps epidemic as well, returning repeatedly in new forms. Rather more deadly than the flu and with no vaccine available at all, like the cold.

Even with a relatively low death rate, the economic and health consequences would be enormous.

The HSE fails dismally to deal with things as they stand its not worth thinking about the consequences of this happening here.

Graces7

VinLieger wrote: »

Go into your local pub ask the barflies if they know what to do or what it is, go into your local newsagent and do the same for those behind the till or the customers , go into your local fast food restaurant and again repeat the same, i have no faith that many will know what your talking about let alone know what to do and again you are ignoring the HSEs own official info and guidelines being weeks out of date.

A few articles in the Irish times website is not enough, nowhere near enough has been done to inform the public, we need front page articles on every publication repeating the exact same info, we need it being repeated on radio and tv news bulletins several times a day.

Your attitude of the info is there for people to find is pathetic, it needs to be shoved in peoples faces at every oppurtunity

Another angry panic merchant? So go and evangelise? Anger is a very bad teacher.

And meanwhile we who are wiser will take precautions and make provision and be ready in case..

tara73

can't find anything online, somebody here knows something about the first dead man in Italy, how he might have contracted it, read he wasn't in China or has any links to it.

fits

I think air pollution and smoking rates are probably more likely to explain variations than mutations.

There have been no further cases in Brighton yet which is a cause for optimism maybe?

Doctor Jimbob

BanditLuke wrote: »

Good point. Bizarre that it's swings wildly from country to country. Possibly mutated in Iran??

Possible, but it's also possible that only the most severe cases are being reported.

BanditLuke

VinLieger wrote: »

Go into your local pub ask the barflies if they know what to do or what it is, go into your local newsagent and do the same for those behind the till or the customers , go into your local fast food restaurant and again repeat the same, i have no faith that many will know what your talking about let alone know what to do and again you are ignoring the HSEs own official info and guidelines being weeks out of date.

A few articles in the Irish times website is not enough, nowhere near enough has been done to inform the public, we need front page articles on every publication repeating the exact same info, we need it being repeated on radio and tv news bulletins several times a day.

Your attitude of the info is there for people to find is pathetic, it needs to be shoved in peoples faces at every oppurtunity

Whilst I don't agree panicking people is wise I do think the lack of education of what's to come is in itself worrying

Mic 1972

wylo wrote: »

By that logic Italy and lots of other countries would have a lot more deaths by now.

Italy is testing everyone in the affected areas, the number of cases is high because it's the real total cases.

Other countries only report deaths and only test people who were in close contact with the virus. Thats why the dearth rate in Italy is lower

BanditLuke

BanditLuke wrote: »

The hospitals here will be over run within days of an outbreak if those numbers are even partly true. There is going to be a lot of angry people asking why we didn't take the measures required earlier.

There should be ongoing radio ads, poster campaign etc in what to do and what NOT to do in case of an outbreak. Eg. DoNot Turn up to Accident & Emergency, Do Not turn up to your GP, PHONE Them First.

gozunda

Graces7 wrote: »

As is usual for you, you are stonily determined to see and think the worst and de depressed and angry
I did nto seek this out; I check the news daily is all and all I say was there was there.
Not going to waste what little energy I have on you. As I said when I updated my post, there are numerous reports of the fuller HSE statements
None so blind as those who will nto see who enjoy anger and spreading gloom and doom
All that is possible at this stage is in place. And the suspected cases have been capably dealt with,

Attack the poster grace 'as usual? That's nice.

I was specifically replying to the claim you made regarding the HSE supposedly having all the information needed on its webpage.

Not the only poster to point this out.

News: It doesn't

Now I asked for a source for your other claim re. "Isolation units" which you claim are now ready.

Ive checked and much like your previous claim. Nada nothing zilch.

No point spreading unfounded claims or bs for sure.

Im so sorry if you dont like others highlighting this

Nickla

Third Diamond Princess cruise ship passenger dies of coronavirus - an 80 year old man.

SeaBreezes

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Italy is testing everyone in the affected areas, the number of cases is high because it's the real total cases.

Other countries only report deaths and only test people who were in close contact with the virus. Thats why the dearth rate in Italy is lower

Also time lag.

Would depend how long it's been around in either country before Drs realise its COVID19. Iran has no contact with China so took them longer to realise what it was.

Takes about 2-3 weeks to develop into something serious or recovery?

Graces7

gozunda wrote: »

Attack the poster grace 'as usual? That's nice.

I was specifically replying to the claim you made regarding the HSE supposedly having all the information needed on its webpage.

Not the only poster to point this out.

News: It doesn't

Now I asked for a source for your other claim re. "Isolation units" which you claim are now ready.

Ive checked and much like your previous claim. Nada nothing zilch.

No point spreading unfounded claims or bs for sure.


Im so sorry if you dont like others highlighting this

As I said, my eyes are very sore and I am on a very limited machine.

That material is there and of course it does not suit you to find it
Does not matter.

Bless you gozunda! Bless you!

Graces7

VinLieger wrote: »

Lol your disgusting superiority complex is dripping off you.

So anyone who doesn't have the wherewithal or cop on to research as you or the others on this thread have can just take their chances? Thats your attitude? **** society ehhh.....

Bless you. VinLieger. Bless you.

Graces7

Deleted User wrote: »

There should be ongoing radio ads, poster campaign etc in what to do and what NOT to do in case of an outbreak. Eg. DoNot Turn up to Accident & Emergency, Do Not turn up to your GP, PHONE Them First.

the very words HSE use in the news reports I referred to.

ah well!

bye!

4068ac1elhodqr

BanditLuke wrote: »

The numbers in Iran are stunningly grave.
I wonder if this is the true fatality rate percentage and the Chinese cover up of numbers is true?

They've (a cleric of course) has blamed the Donald for it already (as with everything there that goes sideways).

Still 43 (8gone) in IRN isn't too large overall considering it's a large enough country, and 81m people, and not far with China, and also lots of direct trade also with them. Most likely they've already hundreds of cases, that their regime isn't reporting.

Interesting Taiwan has turned the tables and now issued travel advice against both Italy-Iran.

In terms of the HSE are they going to follow the NHS new scheme proposed whereby they send out dedicated health staff (not usual overworked District Nurse/OoO-GP) {arranged by via direct public helpline}?
To deliver and collect 'testing kits' - for those deemed at risk who are symptomatic and under self-quarantine^, and not to show up at A&E. ^Not always possible of practical.

volchitsa

tara73 wrote: »

can't find anything online, somebody here knows something about the first dead man in Italy, how he might have contracted it, read he wasn't in China or has any links to it.

I saw on TV coverage (sorry no link) that he worked for a major multinational (IIRC it was Unilever) and seems to have been in contact through his work with someone who had been in China or perhaps even that person had themselves been in contact with someone who had been in China.

IOW the Italian authorities do know what the link is, but the concern is that these are no longer direct connections with Wuhan and may be turning into an uncontrollable chain of transmissions that quarantine measures will not get on top of.

HSE ill-preparedness going to be discussed on Sarah McInerney on Radio 1 shortly, as part of news headlines.

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Italy is testing everyone in the affected areas, the number of cases is high because it's the real total cases.

Other countries only report deaths and only test people who were in close contact with the virus. Thats why the dearth rate in Italy is lower

I’m I correct in saying Italy has 2 deaths with over 100 infected?

So around 2 % based on confirmed?

wylo

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m I correct in saying Italy has 2 deaths with over 100 infected?

So around 2 % based on confirmed?

2 with 127 infected and question marks about the health of one of the deceased.

wellwhynot

Every country needs to close it’s borders and impose a quarantine for 30 days. Schools can email school work and people work from home if possible. Chemists, shops and hospitals remain open. There would be an economic hit but it would be less damaging than an outbreak and slow death of many businesses.

igCorcaigh

'Coming soon: Country-specific pages (with live statistics and graphs for each country and region)'

Worldometers proving to be the best resource on this topic.

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m I correct in saying Italy has 2 deaths with over 100 infected?
So around 2 % based on confirmed?

76 infected afaik^ (currently).
But with most at early stage of sickness, you would need to check back in 3-4wks for each these cases to evaluate a better more accurate rate, even then it's a small sample.

A similar small sample is Irn, which shows 18.6% of confirmed, their regime is more likely of course however to suppress any reports of conifrmed cases.

edit: ^ correction latest for Italy says 'over 100', still likely at the early stage of a 2-3wk illness.

wakka12

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1231498932024422400

I would imagine she is one of the youngest people to have died in the epidemic, really sad, it makes me so upset that the daily job of healthcare workers puts them at such high risk in these situations

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m I correct in saying Italy has 2 deaths with over 100 infected?

So around 2 % based on confirmed?

117 infected

2 deaths
2 recovered
18 critical


If you assume that nobody else is going to die out of the 115 open cases yes, it's 2%

Mic 1972

wellwhynot wrote: »

Every country needs to close it’s borders and impose a quarantine for 30 days. Schools can email school work and people work from home if possible. Chemists, shops and hospitals remain open. There would be an economic hit but it would be less damaging than an outbreak and slow death of many businesses.

They need to raise awareness here in Ireland. Invite people with cold/flue symptoms to stay home and stop the "virus-isn't-here" bull****

wakka12

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200223/k10012298351000.html
A third passenger from the Diamond Princess cruise has died, he was in his 80's.

cnocbui

Graces7 wrote: »

Source please?

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200209/Researchers-reveal-how-long-coronaviruses-persist-on-surfaces-and-a-way-for-inactivation.aspx

Together with Professor Eike Steinmann, head of the Department for Molecular and Medical Virology at Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB), he has compiled comprehensive findings from 22 studies on coronaviruses and their inactivation for a future textbook.

Under the circumstances, the best approach was to publish these verified scientific facts in advance, in order to make all information available at a glance."

Eike Steinmann, head of the Department for Molecular and Medical Virology at Ruhr-Universität Bochum

The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan," points out Kampf.

Now given the coolness of the UK and Ireland, and the persistent high humidity, I would think we might have a problem with packages. Donning a pair of gloves and wiping the outside of the package with bleach should do the trick. Tesco sell boxes of disposable vinyl gloves, which are ideal, as they don't rot from bleach, unlike latex ones.

silverharp

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1231498932024422400

I would imagine she is one of the youngest people to have died in the epidemic, really sad, it makes me so upset that the daily job of healthcare workers puts them at such high risk in these situations

I'd guess medical staff there are in a state of permanent exhaustion.

laurah591

Duke of Url wrote: »

Well you can look at it 3 ways.

Iran reporting 18% fatalities rate

Korea reporting 0.8% fatalities rate

China reporting 2% fatalities rate

It’s impossible to know which one is closest.

All 3 don’t know how many people are infected.

It's impossible to show fatalities rates when we don't know population size. I seriously believe Iran are only testing those in critical condition or near death whereas South Korea are testing everyone.

wakka12

It is a pointless exercise trying to estimate death rates from countries. Singapore apparently has the best detection available and still misses half of cases, there must be several thousand undetected in iran

The ship is by far the most accurate way

Duke of Url

wakka12 wrote: »

It is a pointless exercise trying to estimate death rates from countries. Singapore apparently has the best detection available and still misses half of cases, there must be several thousand undetected in iran

The ship is by far the most accurate way

The Diamond Princess?

So the death Rate is closest to 0.47%

Duke of Url

Country Confirmed Deaths Death %
China 76940 2443 3.18
Diamond Princess 634 3 0.47
S. Korea 602 5 0.83
Japan 146 1 0.68
Italy 117 2 1.71
Singapore 89 0 0.00
Hong Kong 70 2 2.86
Iran 43 8 18.60
Thailand 35 0 0.00
USA 35 0 0.00
Taiwan 28 1 3.57
Australia 22 0 0.00
Malaysia 22 0 0.00
Germany 16 0 0.00
Vietnam 16 0 0.00
U.A.E. 13 0 0.00
France 12 1 8.33
Macao 10 0 0.00
Canada 9 0 0.00
U.K. 9 0 0.00
Philippines 3 1 33.33
India 3 0 0.00
Russia 2 0 0.00
Spain 2 0 0.00
Belgium 1 0 0.00
Cambodia 1 0 0.00
Egypt 1 0 0.00
Finland 1 0 0.00
Israel 1 0 0.00
Lebanon 1 0 0.00
Nepal 1 0 0.00
Sri Lanka 1 0 0.00
Sweden 1 0 0.00
Iraq 1 0 0.00
Total 78888 2467 3.13

data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Mic 1972

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200209/Researchers-reveal-how-long-coronaviruses-persist-on-surfaces-and-a-way-for-inactivation.aspx



Now given the coolness of the UK and Ireland, and the persistent high humidity, I would think we might have a problem with packages. Donning a pair of gloves and wiping the outside of the package with bleach should do the trick. Tesco sell boxes of disposable vinyl gloves, which are ideal, as they don't rot from bleach, unlike latex ones.

I have been wiping plastic wraps and boxes with Dettol for the last 2 weeks, it's a pain in the a** tho!

laurah591

igCorcaigh wrote: »

'Coming soon: Country-specific pages (with live statistics and graphs for each country and region)'

Worldometers proving to be the best resource on this topic.

The guys that update that website are really enjoying themselves.... I can see them at it

wakka12

Duke of Url wrote: »

The Diamond Princess?

So the death Rate is closest to 0.47%

Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's

4068ac1elhodqr

S.Kor also has (very) recent cases, so can't assume any 'final rate' conclusions, in a situation when half of subjects are only confirmed within recent days.
The 2nd part, or thereafter of the (2-3wk) illness is usually the problematic time and when additional secondary issues can arise.

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's

Too early to say yet on that sample... the third died this morning and 27 remain in a serious condition

SK also has over 600 cases

Mic 1972

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

S.Kor also has (very) recent cases, so can't assume any 'final rate' conclusions, in a situation when half of subjects are only confirmed within recent days.

That's why the 3% rate doesn't mean anything, too many open cases are counted in that inflate the rate of survival

The only relevant stats are based on closed cases (deaths + Recovered)