new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Doctor Jimbob

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you are being random, the stats are out there, anybody can read them and they are very easy to understand

The figures you're using are accurate but they don't give the full picture because they don't include non-severe cases.

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you are being random, the stats are out there, anybody can read them and they are very easy to understand

Now don’t run away.

You stated 30% recovery rate. Give me that in a number.

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

Drumpot

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

To be perfectly honest i'm not sure there is much to be scared of anyway.

Sooner or later the virus will just be accepted as a reality, to be guarded against - yes, but treated as any other serious illness.

Agreed, the biggest question for me is how people are going to react to the news, especially ones who have been laughing this off or just ignoring it completely. They are the ones most likely to panic simply because they have absolutely no understanding and since they have been in denial (or just not interested) it will be a shock of sorts.

If strict quarantine procedures end up here , it will be a bit of a shock to us all as nobody is familar with such abnormal protocols. I dont anticipate huge issues (as you said its a virus , will come, will cause problems but should eventually improve in hopefully a few months).

Again, this is why I dont get the "tell em nothing" approach to communication. You are just kicking a potential problem down the road and waiting until probably the worst time possible to start educating people.

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

Now don’t run away.

You stated 30% recovery rate. Give me that in a number.

ok, apples to apples


Death 2470 / 78,969 = 3%
Recovery 23,418 / 78,969 = 30%
the rest 67% have no outcome, they could be deaths or recoveries


or oranges to oranges


death 2,470 / 25,888 = 10%
Recovery 23,418 / 25,888 = 90%

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

Would the kisser in chief be one of them, by any chance?

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

As Dr John sarcastically said, Everybody is grand in North Korea so no need for any information from that basket case.

It really is hard to imagine how this virus isnt in practically every country at this stage considering how hard it can be to detect between incubation periods of up to possibly 3 weeks and many not ever getting it severe enough to raise concerns...

Cody montana

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

Where are you getting this information from?

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you are being random, the stats are out there, anybody can read them and they are very easy to understand

Look you only have yourself to blame.
People do not read data most only read headlines.

70% of cases are unresolved like you said but the headlines do not reflect this.

Mic 1972 you are like the kid at school that says Santa is not real and the other kids are telling you My Mammy and Daddy says he is real so there.


You're not going to convince these people so you only have yourself to blame for trying.

Best thing you can do is just keeping posting the facts and those that want the facts will read them.;)

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Everyone will have been skiing in Italy last week with the midterm, I expect we'll be hearing about our first cases this week.

There's some great reporting on the virus from Al Jazeera.

Mic 1972

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Look you only have yourself to blame.
People do not read data most only read headlines.

70% of cases are unresolved like you said but the headlines do not reflect this.

Mic 1972 you are like the kid at school that says Santa is not real and the other kids are telling you My Mammy and Daddy says he is real so there.


You're not going to convince these people so you only have yourself to blame for trying.

Best thing you can do is just keeping posting the facts and those that want the facts will read them.;)

I will follow your advise, it's becoming frustrating trying to convince Santa believers!

cnocbui

Mic 1972 wrote: »

ok, apples to apples


2470 / 78,969 = 3%
23,418 / 78,969 = 30%


or oranges to oranges


2,470 / 25,888 = 10%
23,418 / 25,888 = 90%

Give up with the numbers and trying to find reason in them. They are wholly unknown and are fictitious in the sense of how they portray the reality, which is poorly, at best. Numbers worth looking at will only be available retrospectively after it's all over.

pc7

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

?

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

ok, apples to apples


Death 2470 / 78,969 = 3%
Recovery 23,418 / 78,969 = 30%
the rest 67% have no outcome, they could be deaths or recoveries


or oranges to oranges


death 2,470 / 25,888 = 10%
Recovery 23,418 / 25,888 = 90%

That’s 2 DATA SETS.

Ffs - You are switching between them to counter argue.

People use one. You use the other.

They are completely different lol

Kermit.de.frog

One thing this episode does illustrate, assuming the source is as China says, is that it can no longer be culturally acceptable in the 21st century to engage in practices of eating delicacies like bats or whatever.

After this you hope the Chinese authorities would take a dim view and implement harsher measures to try and end these practices.

It's too dangerous.

Gynoid

:eek:

Doctor Jimbob

cnocbui wrote: »

Give up with the numbers and trying to find reason in them. They are wholly unknown and are fictitious in the sense of how they portray the reality, which is poorly, at best. Numbers worth looking at will only be available retrospectively after it's all over.

Yep. The outcome could be far better or far worse than any statistics show at the moment. It's worth keeping an eye on the stats but there's no use trying to draw any conclusions from them.

Ludo

Duke of Url wrote: »

That’s 2 DATA SETS.

Ffs - You are switching between them to counter argue.

People use one. You use the other.

They are completely different lol

Isn't it one data set with the unknowns removed in the second set of figures?

Sarn

I would imagine that it’s already here. As mentioned above, if you were asymptomatic or only had a mild dose it is unlikely that most would think Covvid-19.

With people from all over the globe passing through international airports unaware that they are infected I can’t see how it isn’t going to start popping up everywhere. It’ll only be where there is targeted sampling or someone experiencing symptoms that warrant hospitalisation that it will be identified. It explains how countries jump from zero cases to double digits so quickly. It will also help put the current mortality rate into context when the number of infected is better estimated.

And reportedly, Nepal is trying to get through this, but cases are popping up in Kathmandu now. 40+.

wylo

Mic 1972 wrote: »

• Unconfirmed cases have no stats, you can't quantify that number so there's no way you can make a % assumption unless you are using imaginary figures
• 2% (which is now 3%) is based on 70% on unresolved cases, once they are all closed the % will surely be higher, do you think nobody else is gong to die out of that 70%?)

Its just impossible at this stage to give death rate, because if you look only at closed cases which is 10% death rate that does not account for the possible 10s of 1000s of "closed" cases where people in perhaps December or January just got what they thought was a "bad dose", recovered and thought nothing more of it till news started getting out about it, especially younger people who believed they'd no reason to worry.


For all we know Ireland might even already have closed cases.

Mic 1972

Ludo wrote: »

Isn't it one data set with the unknowns removed in the second set of figures?

Yes, that's what it is. He knows too

BanditLuke

Italy and South Korea on high alert over coronavirus
http://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0223/1117075-coronavirus-spread/

SK on red alert

cnocbui

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

One thing this episode does illustrate, assuming the source is as China says, is that it can no longer be culturally acceptable in the 21st century to engage in practices of eating delicacies like bats or whatever.

After this you hope the Chinese authorities would take a dim view and implement harsher measures to try and end these practices.

It's too dangerous.

They said they intended to ban the trade and consumption of wild animals/insects. They might actually mean it this time after this. Unless it was the lab, in which case it will probably not be implemented.

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

That’s 2 DATA SETS.

Ffs - You are switching between them to counter argue.

People use one. You use the other.

They are completely different lol

I reported both for you to understand, but you don't understand stats Everybody else in here get them

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

• Unconfirmed cases have no stats, you can't quantify that number so there's no way you can make a % assumption unless you are using imaginary figure

This again? It's still a number n in the equation that has a massive effect on the final number. Just because you can't assign a value to it currently doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's existence can and only will reduce the death rate.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

• 2% (which is now 3%) is based on 70% on unresolved cases, once they are all closed the % will surely be higher, do you think nobody else is gong to die out of that 70%?)

For unresolved cases the number of infected is not a static number. You are assuming that number and the number of recoveries doesn't also go up in somewhat the same proportion as deaths. I'd imagine serious testing needs to be done to even close a case on a recovery so there's a lag on data there. Where as death data is more readily available.

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Yes, that's what it is. He knows too

Rubbish 70% unresolved:rolleyes: yeah right.

No going to fall for that I will be getting my information from the HSE.

cameramonkey

With the seemingly sudden very rapid rise in numbers in Italy and Iran a new strategy is needed in Ireland. We have so many direct flights to that area of Italy we really need to think about our response. I hope the HSE, army and Garda are getting ready for a similar outbreak here. It's only a matter of time before this is declared a pandemic.

China might be the country that gets away lightest in the end. The have the ability to control populations in a way that other countries like Ireland dont.

Tesla3

cnocbui wrote: »

Only if you are old and already sick - you left out that bit.

You will already be sick after the first infection!!!!!

There is no good hoping

Mic 1972

wylo wrote: »

Its just impossible at this stage to give death rate, because if you look only at closed cases which is 10% death rate that does not account for the possible 10s of 1000s of "closed" cases where people in perhaps December or January just got what they thought was a "bad dose", recovered and thought nothing more of it till news started getting out about it, especially younger people who believed they'd no reason to worry.


For all we know Ireland might even already have closed cases.

that's true, the unreported cases are the big mistery but as we go along more and more actual data is being filed. The % rates are starting to become more consistent. Don't forget that deaths can also go unreported

fritzelly

Another death in Italy

That vegan ad is genius

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231618631487893505

Duke of Url

Ludo wrote: »

Isn't it one data set with the unknowns removed in the second set of figures?

No.

His first one is a data-set around all total cases 78000 peace’s of data.

His second one is closed cases . 25800 total pieces of data

If a person uses a . Mic uses B...... someone uses B data Mic will use A.

Pointless

He’s saying the death rate is 3-10 %

It can either be 3 or 10 % depending which data set you use.

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

This again? It's still a number n in the equation that has a massive effect on the final number. Just because you can't assign a value to it currently doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's existence can and only will reduce the death rate.
For unresolved cases the number of infected is not a static number. You are assuming that number and the number of recoveries doesn't also go up in somewhat the same proportion as deaths. I'd imagine serious testing needs to be done to even close a case on a recovery so there's a lag on data there. Where as death data is more readily available.

I am not assuming anything, i copy/paste numbers from an official source.

Get on to them if you don't like them. There is nothing esle for you to add. They are stats, Key Indicators

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's true, the unreported cases are the big mistery but as we go along more and more actual data is being filed. The % rates are starting to become more consistent. Don't forget that deaths can also go unreported

Can but are far more unlikely. Clutching at straws now.

BorneTobyWilde

Are we not doing right thing to avoid chinese people? Is that not good advice? Thousands of Chinese people in Ireland returned to China for Chinese New Year, and they all returned back to Ireland afterwards.
I know a chinese restaurant that closed for 4 weeks as they went back to China, it will reopen soon, so you think it's fine to go eat there when they open.? Us Irish would risk it just not to offend someone? Geez

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's true, the unreported cases are the big mistery but as we go along more and more actual data is being filed. The % rates are starting to become more consistent. Don't forget that deaths can also go unreported

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I reported both for you to understand, but you don't understand stats Everybody else in here get them

Bollox. Your admitting using to different sets.

Stick to one as everyone else is.

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

No.

His first one is a data-set around all total cases 78000 peace’s of data.

His second one is closed cases . 25800 total pieces of data

If a person uses a . Mic uses B...... someone uses B data Mic will use A.

Pointless

He’s saying the death rate is 3-10 %

It can either be 3 or 10 % depending which data set you use.

I'm reporting both stats because i'm being questioned the data.
A death rate is always only calculated on closed cases, possibly all reported cases and no more open cases

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

Bollox. Your admitting using to different sets.

Stick to one as everyone else is.

ok, you are trolling
cheers mate, bye

CinemaGuy45

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Are we not doing right thing to avoid chinese people? Is that not good advice? Thousands of Chinese people in Ireland returned to China for Chinese New Year, and they all returned back to Ireland afterwards.
I know a chinese restaurant that closed for 4 weeks as they went back to China, it will reopen soon, so you think it's fine to go eat there when they open.? Us Irish would risk it just not to offend someone? Geez

Fook that nobody ever died from being offended.:D

BloodBath

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

You think he made a good point there?

The proportion of unreported deaths vs mild recoveries at home would be minuscule. Chinese people like most are very family oriented. (No pun intended)

There aren't going to be many left at home to die unknown to anyone.

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm reporting both stats because i'm being questioned the data.
A death rate is always only calculated on closed cases, possibly all reported cases and no more open cases

So what’s recovered rate based on?

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

So what’s recovered rate based on?

seriously? LOL

Tesla3

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

It is already here, the infected ones walk with us, serve us food, sit beside us, work with us.

cameramonkey

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Are we not doing right thing to avoid chinese people? Is that not good advice? Thousands of Chinese people in Ireland returned to China for Chinese New Year, and they all returned back to Ireland afterwards.
I know a chinese restaurant that closed for 4 weeks as they went back to China, it will reopen soon, so you think it's fine to go eat there when they open.? Us Irish would risk it just not to offend someone? Geez

At this stage its gone beyond China, I suspect in the coming month new cases outside China will out strip those inside China. Italy I would think is a bigger risk now wit the amount of interconnection. Chines new year waas 25 January so I suspect most people would be well back by now, if you want to be totally sure avoid your Chines restaurant until 14 days after the last person returned from China.

CinemaGuy45

BloodBath wrote: »

You think he made a good point there?

The proportion of unreported deaths vs mild recoveries at home would be minuscule. Chinese people like most are very family oriented. (No pun intended)

There aren't going to be many left at home to die unknown to anyone.

Chinese people have been arrested for daring to spread information on the web.

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

You think he made a good point there?

The proportion of unreported deaths vs mild recoveries at home would be minuscule. Chinese people like most are very family oriented. (No pun intended)

source? show us the data
people die everyday, do you think they all get tested for corona virus after they are dead?

mouthful

cameramonkey wrote: »

At this stage its gone beyond China, I suspect in the coming month new cases outside China will out strip those inside China. Italy I would think is a bigger risk now wit the amount of interconnection. Chines new year waas 25 January so I suspect most people would be well back by now, if you want to be totally sure avoid your Chines restaurant until 14 days after the last person returned from China.

27 days if this is correct https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

Indestructable

Up to 157 cases in Italy now. They are testing like mad over there. Up from 113 earlier. Big decisions to be made in the next day or two re flights to Italy.

cameramonkey

mouthful wrote: »

27 days if this is correct https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

If it is correct, it does seem to be an outlier. I think we need to start checking people boarding flights from Italy to here. Or Italy needs to be checking passengers.