new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

BloodBath

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Chinese people have been arrested for daring to spread information on the web.

So what is your point? Conspiracy that they are hiding the true dead numbers? Evidence for that?

Mic 1972 wrote: »

source? show us the data
people die everyday, do you think they all get tested for corona virus after they are dead?

Do I really have to show data on what is a perfectly logical argument?

For the death rate to go up from unreported deaths it would have to outnumber unreported recoveries. How likely do you think that is?

Common sense would tell you that unreported recoveries would far outnumber unreported deaths.

CinemaGuy45

mouthful wrote: »

27 days if this is correct https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

Nah thats rubbish.


Best thing to do is come to a conclusion and then find evidence that fits the narrative.

Posting stuff like that is scary and if we decide it is not true and say it often enough it will be so.

;);)

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote:

Do I really have to show data on what is a perfectly logical argument?

yes you do, it's called data analysis LOL

Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an option

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

seriously? LOL

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm reporting both stats because i'm being questioned the data.
A death rate is always only calculated on closed cases, possibly all reported cases and no more open cases

You said the following

Death rate is always calculated on closed cases = 10%

Is recovery rate also based on closed case? = 90%

Mic 1972 wrote: »

As of today, Recovery rate = 30%

moonlighting_1

Its like something out of a horror movie

BanditLuke

Indestructable wrote: »

Up to 157 cases in Italy now. They are testing like mad over there. Up from 113 earlier. Big decisions to be made in the next day or two re flights to Italy.

Two flights touched down from Milan earlier in Dublin where we still have zero checks for the virus, in an international airport. It beggers belief.

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

yes you do, it's called data analysis LOL

Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an option

So you are making the argument that it's possible unreported deaths outnumber unreported recoveries.

I don't need data to show how preposterous that idea is.

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

You said the following

Death rate is always calculated on closed cases = 10%

Is recovery rate also based on closed case?

I reported both, you can see the recovery rate for close cases and for closed+open cases
Personally i wouldn't bother with any stats that contain almost 70% of unknown outcomes in it.

The number of closed cases is increasing and the rate are starting to revel trends, it's good data

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

So you are making the argument that it's possible unreported deaths outnumber unreported recoveries.

I don't need data to show how preposterous that idea is.

unreported cases = imaginary number
The official stats don't contain imaginary numbers, clear?

tillyfilly

draconian measures imposed in Italy to stop spread of the virus, could we do the same without a government?

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

yes you do, it's called data analysis LOL

Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an option

Yes if is how much does the new children's hospital cost again.:D

You would never make it in government pulling numbers out of their ass is an art form.:)

Mic 1972

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Yes if is how much does the new children's hospital cost again.:D

You would never make it in government pulling numbers out of their ass is an art form.:)

I could never be a politician, I just can't sugarcoat a turd

tuxy

BanditLuke wrote: »

Two flights touched down from Milan earlier in Dublin where we still have zero checks for the virus, in an international airport. It beggers belief.

Since body tempertue checks have been inefective in outher countries, what kind of checks should we be doing?

Mic 1972

tuxy wrote: »

Since body tempertue checks have been inefective in outher countries, what kind of checks should we be doing?

stopping flights, nobody leaves, nobody arrives, quarantine ourselves for a month and watch. We are still on time for it

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

unreported cases = imaginary number
The official stats don't contain imaginary numbers, clear?

Haha good circular arguments. You are a complete spoofer.

tuxy

tuxy wrote: »

Since body tempertue checks have been inefective in outher countries, what kind of checks should we be doing?

Anal probing.

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I reported both, you can see the recovery rate for close cases and for closed+open cases
Personally i wouldn't bother with any stats that contain almost 70% of unknown outcomes in it.

The number of closed cases is increasing and the rate are starting to revel trends, it's good data

I know how to read both. You are confusing many by switching between them to debate.

At least highlighting to people which one you are using is a more logical approach.

Both are not wrong but they can’t be used together as they work on different totals.

BanditLuke

tuxy wrote: »

Since body tempertue checks have been inefective in outher countries, what kind of checks should we be doing?

I would still use body temperature checks but tbh I think its not enough and as I stated earlier closing the ports is an option that should at the very least be discussed. We have an advantage as an island nation why not use it?

CinemaGuy45

Duke of Url wrote: »

I know how to read both. You are confusing many by switching between them to debate.

At least highlighting to people which one you are using is a more logical approach.

Both are not wrong but they can’t be used together as they work on different totals.

I think I hear somebody calling saying you're tea is ready.

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

I know how to read both. You are confusing many by switching between them to debate.

At least highlighting to people which one you are using is a more logical approach.

Both are not wrong but they can’t be used together as they work on different totals.

You asked for the calculation, i gave you the calculation
I reported on recovery 30% because it's the right figure to use when you claim that death rate is 3%
Apples with apples, or oranges with oranges

wakka12

Woah I thought they had found all the infected on the cruise liner by now. 57 more passengers and crew confirmed positive now, almost 700 people positive now

9 more passengers have also experienced serious complications since yesterday.
Over 5% of passengers with the virus are now in a serious condition

CinemaGuy45

BanditLuke wrote: »

Two flights touched down from Milan earlier in Dublin where we still have zero checks for the virus, in an international airport. It beggers belief.

Ah sure it's all grand no reported cases here so relax.

tuxy

wakka12 wrote: »

Woah I thought they had found all the infected on the cruise liner by now. 57 more passengers and crew confirmed positive now, almost 700 people positive now

With the long incubation time, taking them off the ship was never going to stop more from testing positive.

Call Me Jimmy

What's the story where you are Ads? Did the place close to you just stop getting more cases?

Candamir

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I reported both for you to understand, but you don't understand stats Everybody else in here get them

Anyone who says statistics are easy to understand probably hasn’t worked a whole lot with them tbh.

Call Me Jimmy

Candamir wrote: »

Anyone who says statistics are easy to understand probably hasn’t worked a whole lot with them tbh.

They seem to more of an art than a science at the best of times :P

wakka12

tuxy wrote: »

With the long incubation time, taking them off the ship was never going to stop more from testing positive.

It's crazy, I wonder will the number of infected on the ship pass the 1000 mark
It's insane that there are literally over a thousand people from that ship going about their daily life now, no quaratine, one negative test and off they were on busses&taxis home. Anyway some countries are quarantining those people or else not allowing them to come home for a fortnight so it will be Japan which will bare the brunt of that mistake

Mic 1972

Candamir wrote: »

Anyone who says statistics are easy to understand probably hasn’t worked a whole lot with them tbh.

stats are my 9-5 job, unfortunately
the stats on Worldometers are the easiest possible available out there, very basic key indicators

PhantomHat

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Ah sure it's all grand no reported cases here so relax.

Tis grand. I think we should all just have a nice cup of tea and wonder if Jonny Sexton will get his kicking boots back on for the Italy game

tuxy

PhantomHat wrote: »

Tis grand. I think we should all just have a nice cup of tea and wonder if Jonny Sexton will get his kicking boots back on for the Italy game

What if they were to delibertly infect the constants of love Island.
Just think of the viewing figures and national interest in the virus!

The chan chan man

BanditLuke wrote: »

Two flights touched down from Milan earlier in Dublin where we still have zero checks for the virus, in an international airport. It beggers belief.

Seriously? Have we no checks in place in Dublin?? Typical of the ****ing Paddy to make a bags of this!

BorneTobyWilde

PhantomHat wrote: »

Tis grand. I think we should all just have a nice cup of tea and wonder if Jonny Sexton will get his kicking boots back on for the Italy game

No way that game goes ahead.

Kermit.de.frog

There is a risk here that neighbouring EU countries could decide to close their borders with Italy. This would carry political fallout.

Apparently Austria has already toyed with the prospect.

bodhrandude

Guys getting fed up with this back and forth arguing about CFR, give it a rest the outbreak is still in its infancy, the only way you'll get an accurate calculation is when this first wave is over and into the summer before the next wave and hopefully with an antidote by then.

cameramonkey

tuxy wrote: »

Since body tempertue checks have been inefective in outher countries, what kind of checks should we be doing?

Of course body temperature checks dont catch everyone that is infected but they may catch some, along with other measures it may not stop the spread but it may cut it down, every little helps.

PhantomHat

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No way that game goes ahead.

Indeed! No talk of that stall! I do wonder about the general Irish perception of this outbreak. Feels like many are sleepwalking

BanditLuke

The chan chan man wrote: »

Seriously? Have we no checks in place in Dublin?? Typical of the ****ing Paddy to make a bags of this!

Zero checks. Ryanair flight due in again from Milan at 7:50 tonight. They'll walk right through and onto hotels, taxis, restaurants etc...this evening.

Beasty

Just a suggestion to try and move this thread away from all this back and forwards on the stats. Stats is a subject in itself (one I studied at University), but we are possibly only in the early days of this virus, also possibly in its letter days - we simply do not know at this time. Stats for it are incomplete until it's over and we have seen through the full aftermath. There is actually only partial data out there. Hence people read different things into different figures. Rather than continuing like that I think it best to stick to verifiable facts. Yes conclusions can be drawn from those facts using statistical analysis, but we are working with an incomplete picture.

Can we therefore drop the backwards and forwards debate on the stats and get back to the facts and indeed discussing possible future actions at personal, local, governmental and global levels.

tuxy

BanditLuke wrote: »

Zero checks. Ryanair flight due in again from Milan at 7:50 tonight. They'll walk right through and onto hotels, taxis, restaurants etc...this evening.

We don't have to wait for the HSE, we should be more proactive like these young people in Hong Kong.

Mic 1972

Beasty wrote: »

Just a suggestion to try and move this thread away from all this back and forwards on the stats. Stats is a subject in itself (one I studied at University), but we are possibly only in the early days of this virus, also possibly in its letter days - we simply do not know at this time. Stats for it are incomplete until it's over and we have seen through the full aftermath. There is actually only partial data out there. Hence people read different things into different figures. Rather than continuing like that I think it best to stick to verifiable facts. Yes conclusions can be drawn from those facts using statistical analysis, but we are working with an incomplete picture.

Can we therefore drop the backwards and forwards debate on the stats and get back to the facts and indeed discussing possible future actions at personal, local, governmental and global levels.

There is room for everything here, including stats. What really should go away is the stirring from certain users, that can take over pages and pages
I'll try to ignore them

Call Me Jimmy

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

What's the story where you are Ads? Did the place close to you just stop getting more cases?

Apparently so. See what happens.

seefin

If someone has just a cough should they be encouraged to stay at home just in case? Could be common cold but It is one of the symptoms so in first few days isn't it best to be cautious?

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

There is room for everything here, including stats. What really should go away is the stirring from certain users, that can take over pages and pages
I'll try to ignore them

I have found what you posted very useful others will not accept that.

Time to move on.

ceadaoin.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

stopping flights, nobody leaves, nobody arrives, quarantine ourselves for a month and watch. We are still on time for it

No point at this stage. Pretty sure it's already in ireland, and most other places. You cant shut yourself in indefinitely. Its here to stay but luckily, for the vast majority of people, it is a mild illness.

fritzelly

I'm beginning to think this is rampant across Italy now and could be some bad times ahead for them and us

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231631397401612288

Gynoid

BanditLuke wrote: »

Zero checks. Ryanair flight due in again from Milan at 7:50 tonight. They'll walk right through and onto hotels, taxis, restaurants etc...this evening.

It is kind of impossible though, I reckon. Every country in Europe will have cases soon, clusters like Italy. Are we going to really close down for the duration of the spread? It could last months, years. All air travel, all sea freight, all movement from abroad? People can be asymptomatic and be spreading so checks are not really workable to stop spreaders. It is a bit of a Pandora's Box situation - the plague cannot be put back in. I cannot see how one could avoid people continuing to walk off planes into Ireland.

SeaBreezes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is a risk here that neighbouring EU countries could decide to close their borders with Italy. This would carry political fallout.

Apparently Austria has already toyed with the prospect.

Did they not meet two weeks ago to discuss shelving the shenguen (sorry free travel) agreement for when COVID gets here? Can't rem where I read that..

wylo

I would say at this point if it was possible to spot check a few 1000 people here we’d probably spot it

BanditLuke

seefin wrote: »

If someone has just a cough should they be encouraged to stay at home just in case? Could be common cold but It is one of the symptoms so in first few days isn't it best to be cautious?

Bottom line is many people can't afford to stay at home sick because their jobs terms and conditions have destroyed their entitlements.

They simply don't get paid unless they turn up hence you have people spreading viruses in workplaces unnecessarily

cameramonkey

fritzelly wrote: »

I'm beginning to think this is rampant across Italy now and could be some bad times ahead for them and us

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231631397401612288

People will start to get panicked if the authorities dont seem to be taking action and in complete control. Other governments in Europe may decide to ban flights and control frontiers.