new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

all about the mane

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Why do the comparisons to flu wind people up so much? A severe flu is the most accurate thing to compare this to in terms of mortality.

Shure flu is way worse. Upwards of 30 times mire killed by the flu than by this measly thing!

Ficheall

fritzelly wrote: »

I had to beat some old woman off to get the last loaf of bread in Tesco - she was rabid

In these days of gender equality, does beating an old woman off mean the same thing as beating an old man off?

Call Me Jimmy

auspicious wrote: »

Even if the inept powers that be don't deem it necessary to cancel the Ireland v Italy match in early March, most Italians I'm sure with already booked flights and Hotels will still arrive for a getaway, unless flight restrictions to/from Italy arise before that.

If they can confirm this many cases after just starting proper testing they are riddled and they've already shown they're going the quote 'extraordinary measures' route. Be surprised if the the whole country isn't in some form of lockdown by then.

1800_Ladladlad

Nijmegen wrote: »

We need to see a report on whether or not putting on a bit of weight will help you survive the effects of the virus, by having some spare pounds to shed. If so, our experience of the beast from the east tells us that Irish people will emerge from quarantine fitter than ever versus this malady.

Im sorted so...more rolls than a baker :cool:

imfml

wakka12 wrote: »

Already letting 1000 people off that cruise without quarantine has become a mistake

Yep - an American passenger who gave an interview while quarantined onboard and I've been following since. Was very defiant against the US evacuation flight, and is currently enjoying the rest of his holiday in Tokyo. I'm surprised at the lack of people telling him he is putting others at risk.

Take a look at Matthew Smith (@mjswhitebread): https://twitter.com/mjswhitebread?s=09

Dave0301

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Why do the comparisons to flu wind people up so much? A severe flu is the most accurate thing to compare this to in terms of mortality.

Flu mortality rate is about 0.1%, whereas we don't know what COVID-19 will end up at. I don't know about you, but if it sticks at about 2% I would prefer it to not become a pandemic and have a regular season like influenza.

This is also before the impact it will have on ICU provision and frontline staff is taken into account give the percentage of critical cases.

Will it wipe out society? No.

Do we want to avoid the ball ache and hassle associated with an additional worldwide virus? Yes.

creditcarder

all about the mane wrote: »

Flu has killed over 10k in the USA alone this season so far

Imo, this is a good point. It's been going on for over two months now and it is about at the flue amount for one country.

wakka12

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-towns-in-lockdown-as-italy-races-to-contain-europes-biggest-outbreak-11941438

The regional governor of Veneto, Luca Zaia, said he had dealt with several natural disasters during his career, including floods and earthquakes, but "this is the absolutely worst problem that Veneto has faced".

fritzelly

Dave0301 wrote: »

Flu mortality rate is about 0.1%

Ahem 0.01%

givyjoe

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Why do the comparisons to flu wind people up so much? A severe flu is the most accurate thing to compare this to in terms of mortality.

Because a) this isn't flu b) if People associate this as just being a flu, they wont take it seriously c) it's not comparable in terms of mortality rates, not even close.

D) flu does not even come remotely close to putting that many/% people into a serious condition.

Call Me Jimmy

wakka12 wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-towns-in-lockdown-as-italy-races-to-contain-europes-biggest-outbreak-11941438

Why are all these leaders talking like this?

Before it shows up in their country: We are prepared.

When it shows up: "It is grave" "devil virus" "worst problem we've faced" "extraordinary measures".

Doctor Jimbob

Dave0301 wrote: »

Flu mortality rate is about 0.1%, whereas we don't know what COVID-19 will end up at. I don't know about you, but if it sticks at about 2% I would prefer it to not become a pandemic and have a regular season like influenza.

This is also before the impact it will have on ICU provision and frontline staff is taken into account give the percentage of critical cases.

Will it wipe out society? No.

Do we want to avoid the ball ache and hassle associated with an additional worldwide virus? Yes.

Spanish flu was over 2% mortality. Swine flu in 2019 was higher than the regular seasonal flu as well. We also don't have a clue whether Covid mortality will be anything close to 2% at the moment. It might, but considering the level of asymptomatic or mild cases being reported at the moment I'd say it's reasonable to assume the mortality won't be that high.

It's a serious disease, and we need to keep an eye on it, but the fact that people are getting angry at those comparing it to similarly serious diseases is quite frankly bizarre.

macwal

fritzelly wrote: »

Ahem...

Is that a tickle in the throat you're getting...?

wakka12

fritzelly wrote: »

Ahem 0.01%

No, it is 0.1, nearly 0.2% in a bad flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

fritzelly

2 and half hours after Hubei normally release their figures and nada, even the national figures not released over an hour later than normal

Kermit.de.frog

A lot of 'not in my backyard' in the US in relation to housing evacuees and infected. Trump has cancelled another site in Alabama.

Viruses are people too.

citysights

givyjoe wrote: »

Because a) this isn't flu b) if People associate this as just being a flu, they wont take it seriously c) it's not comparable in terms of mortality rates, not even close.

What is it then? Does it not have flu like symptoms?

ldy4mxonucwsq6

creditcarder wrote: »

Imo, this is a good point. It's been going on for over two months now and it is about at the flue amount for one country.

The percentage of deaths in the currently reported 'closed cases' (cases where apparently the outcome is known) are at about 10%.

While the real CFR figure is probably going to be much less, that's a scary death rate and much higher than influenza.

wakka12

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Spanish flu was over 2% mortality. Swine flu in 2019 was higher than the regular seasonal flu as well. We also don't have a clue whether Covid mortality will be anything close to 2% at the moment. It might, but considering the level of asymptomatic or mild cases being reported at the moment I'd say it's reasonable to assume the mortality won't be that high.

It's a serious disease, and we need to keep an eye on it, but the fact that people are getting angry at those comparing it to similarly serious diseases is quite frankly bizarre.

It looks a good bit higher. On the cruise liner it is 0.45% right now, for example, and that is including all asymptomatic cases and the outcome of many cases has not yet been determined, as 36 other people are still in a serious condition on the ship.Which is over 5% of all who contracted it.

Doctor Jimbob

givyjoe wrote: »

Because a) this isn't flu b) if People associate this as just being a flu, they wont take it seriously c) it's not comparable in terms of mortality rates, not even close.

D) flu does not even come remotely close to putting that many/% people into a serious condition.

a) I know b) flu is a serious illness and anyone who doesn't treat it as such is an idiot. When most people say they had the flu, they had a cold c) based on what? d) you're comparing serious cases of a newly developing virus to something we've been handling for years. The vast majority of cases are most likely only producing mild symptoms.

I'm not saying this isnt something worth worrying about, it's clearly a serious illness. But to read some of the posts on here youd swear we were dealing with something closer to Ebola than the flu.

ZX7R

wakka12 wrote: »

It looks a good bit higher. On the cruise liner it is 0.45% right now, for example, and that is including all asymptomatic cases and the outcome of many cases has not yet been determined, as 36 other people are still in a serious condition on the ship.Which is over 5% of all who contracted it.

there is still people on the ship,i tought every one was removed.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

New figures available here.

Dave0301

fritzelly wrote: »

Ahem 0.01%

Depends on the figures used...did a rough calculation using CDC figures for the states. Got this from a Google, but I am agree that it 0.1% would be high for influenza.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Sean 18

This is no way like the flu younger people are dying from this you don't hear of young people dying from the flu except in rare cases

fritzelly

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

New figures available here.

That's yesterdays figures

laurah591

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

New figures available here.

Those China figures look off - or old, no new deaths/limited cases from lastnights update which is odd as the SK, Japan & Italy figs look ok

Ficheall

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

New figures available here.

BNO is more up to date.

bodhrandude

Austria restarts train services to with Italy (Irish Times). Of course the two tested negative and I suppose they may test positive when they reach the other side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd0p96miSK8

laurah591

Ficheall wrote: »

BNO is more up to date.

I gather figures have not been released locally yet - i wonder will they stop altogether... now that we have cases emerging elsewhere

Call Me Jimmy

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

a) I know b) flu is a serious illness and anyone who doesn't treat it as such is an idiot. When most people say they had the flu, they had a cold c) based on what? d) you're comparing serious cases of a newly developing virus to something we've been handling for years. The vast majority of cases are most likely only producing mild symptoms.

I'm not saying this isnt something worth worrying about, it's clearly a serious illness. But to read some of the posts on here youd swear we were dealing with something closer to Ebola than the flu.

WHO chief said it was worse than Ebola in almost every aspect though. And how deadly it is not the only problem, if it transmits sufficiently more but has a lower death rate then overall more people die for example. Rightly or wrongly every government that gets a dose starts shutting things down, and very few lockdowns have been lifted, usually being continuously extended.

95% Fortune 1000 companies are reporting supply chain disruption as well. No big deal for now, but not forever.

all about the mane

Dave0301 wrote: »

Depends on the figures used...did a rough calculation using CDC figures for the states. Got this from a Google, but I am agree that it 0.1% would be high for influenza.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Chances are the death rate from c19 is way lower than what people think.
Many cases are going undetected or people are lying about it. The opposite happens with flu. Every second person who has a cold, claims to have the flu. Very few voluntarily stepping up with this new virus.

all about the mane

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

WHO chief said it was worse than Ebola in almost every aspect though. And how deadly it is not the only problem, if it transmits sufficiently more but has a lower death rate then overall more people die for example. Rightly or wrongly every government that gets a dose starts shutting things down, and very few lockdowns have been lifted, usually being continuously extended.

95% Fortune 1000 companies are reporting supply chain disruption as well. No big deal for now, but not forever.

Worse than Ebola...Jesus wept...

Drumpot

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

New figures available here.

In their non peer reviewed report

The study also suggested that human-to-human transmission might have already started in November.

Not. Sure if they are intentionally trying to confuse things or if that’s a serious suggestion that this virus has been around longer then we thought

Martina1991

Strawberry Milkshake wrote:

Where’s the poster called Martina? She seems to have the inside scoop and her silence is worrying me.

Holla! I've no scoop but I'll see if there's any update or see what people are saying tomorrow. None of my colleagues at work or in other hospitals were too worried yet.
Opinions may change after the outbreak in Italy.
I'd imagine we will close borders or take precautions like that when the UK do.

Spanish Eyes wrote:

Wonder who the 65 were and why they were chosen for testing.

I would guess those 65 had flu like symptoms but more importantly i would say they also had recently been travelling internationally.


If cases do appear here, our ability to test suspected cases will be severely lacking. There is only one lab that facilitates testing in Ireland. They will likely not have the staff or resources to keep up. Testing may be limited to those displaying symptoms and not the asymptomatic population.

Call Me Jimmy

all about the mane wrote: »

Worse than Ebola...Jesus wept...

I said in most aspects

Actually. Worry level is back down to 2/10 now that it was fake news that the 38 year old died. There are particular people posting on this thread who seem to be more interested in spreading fake information/panic than actually dealing in facts. Be very wary of everything in this thread unless it's peer reviewed.

Cork Boy 53

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A lot of 'not in my backyard' in the US in relation to housing evacuees and infected. Trump has cancelled another site in Alabama.

Viruses are people too.

Make America Virus Free Again.

all about the mane

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I said in most aspects, talk to this lad:

Worse than Ebola

all about the mane

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Actually. Worry level is back down to 2/10 now that it was fake news that the 38 year old died. There are particular people posting on this thread who seem to be more interested in spreading fake information/panic than actually dealing in facts. Be very wary of everything in this thread unless it's peer reviewed.

It’s all about the drama.

Call Me Jimmy

all about the mane wrote: »

Worse than Ebola

That's not what I said. There's multiple dimensions to an outbreak. He says they have to take this more serious than Ebola. I didn't say it's more deadly.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Actually. Worry level is back down to 2/10 now that it was fake news that the 38 year old died. There are particular people posting on this thread who seem to be more interested in spreading fake information/panic than actually dealing in facts. Be very wary of everything in this thread unless it's peer reviewed.

That's what happens when boards.ie policy is that people should just know better in this particular forum and there are no repercussions for spreading fake news, but there are infractions if you call one of them a clown for doing it.

Unconfirmed reports of a case in Belfast. 65-year-old had travelled through Korea in recent weeks.

Doctor Jimbob

Ebola has a fatality rate of up to 90% by the way, for anyone who thinks comparing the two in terms of impact to human life is remotely comparable.

givyjoe

givyjoe wrote: »

Because a) this isn't flu b) if People associate this as just being a flu, they wont take it seriously c) it's not comparable in terms of mortality rates, not even close.

D) flu does not even come remotely close to putting that many/% people into a serious condition.

Where's your peer reviewed evidence of this? If there was no influenza vaccine. The numbers may be very similar. The flu vaccines reduces the prevalence by 40-60%.

Doctor Jimbob

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Unconfirmed reports of a case in Belfast. 65-year-old had travelled through Korea in recent weeks.

I'm hearing its spread to at least quarter of a million people as of a minute ago

tuxy

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm hearing its spread to at least quarter of a million people as of a minute ago

The voices in your head are not a reliable source!

Doctor Jimbob

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm hearing its spread to at least quarter of a million people as of a minute ago

Thank god for that hard border. #blessed

Call Me Jimmy

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Ebola has a fatality rate of up to 90% by the way, for anyone who thinks comparing the two in terms of impact to human life is remotely comparable.

Can you interpret why the WHO Chief said this is more serious (which I have stated is not in terms of death rate)?

What's your take on how he compared them?

Doctor Jimbob

tuxy wrote: »

The voices in your head are not a reliable source!

Who needs a reliable source on this thread?