new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

fr336

fr336 wrote: »

I was about 8.5/10 when Italy started kicking off, now it's more of a 6.

Oooh 8.5. That's at the level of taking time off work, locking your front door and shouting at the postman through your letterbox to leave the package on the doorstep and get the hell off your land.

Not as bad as a 9.5 which is your standing in a ten foot hole right now, frantically shovelling out your bunker space.

10 is the above but theres a second 6 foot hole next to it for your neighbour who coughed in your vicinity so you hit him with the shovel.

Mic 1972

I'd be ok with a "moderate" lock down

- Working from home if possible
- Limiting social gathering to a minimum
- Self quarantine if symptoms of cold/flue

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm so tired of this conspiracy theory. You are as bad as 9/11 truthers.

Yeah, I know how you think..

Deleted User wrote: »

What is a correct calculation? One that is convenient to your belief of the truth? In two months time, I'm 99.9% certain the mortality rate will be less than 2%. Fancy a charity bet? 100 euros? Say 3 months time if it's more than 2% I'd give the money to MSF, if it's below. You do.With your belief in the "business analyst" side of things. It should be an easy win for you.

Deleted User wrote: »

It won't be over 1% by the end. Guaranteed.

Deleted User wrote: »

I must admit. The 38 year dying in Italy is a bit concerning. Was healthy. Current worry level would be 4\10.

Deleted User wrote: »

Actually. Worry level is back down to 2/10 now that it was fake news that the 38 year old died.

Deleted User wrote: »

The majority of people seeming to be recovering quite well from the infection. It seems to me that in a normal person, this strain is flu is less severe than the seasonal.flu.

I know EXACTLY what you think, its just the flu, bro
.. and you only worry if younger people are affected, older people? Doesnt worry you so much..


Do me a favour and add me to your ignore list please?
Your good opinion isn't one I care about...

fr336

Deleted User wrote: »

Oooh 8.5. That's at the level of taking time off work, locking your front door and shouting at the postman through your letterbox to leave the package on the doorstep and get the hell off your land.

Not as bad as a 9.5 which is your standing in a ten foot hole right now, frantically shovelling out your bunker space.

10 is the above but theres a second 6 foot hole next to it for your neighbour who coughed in your vicinity so you hit him with the shovel.

Haha! And I'm off work for two weeks!

fr336

fr336 wrote: »

Haha! And I'm off work for two weeks!

The scale is nothing if not accurate!

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

I'll ignore the non-quoted bit, since it wasn't what I was talking about at all..


What do you think Wuhan did, if not drastically reduce the number of people out and about interacting with each other?
Is your conspiracy theory that Wuhan only pretended to have a big lockdown?

And that they couldn't get to a hospital even if they wanted to....

It wasn't drastically reduced, the poster said that people in Wuhan haven't left their house in a month.

silverharp

Finished “over buying” at the weekend so could stay away from the shops for a month if need be, and simultaneously booked our summer flights for end of July. After that whatever will happen will happen. Hopefully this will be rear view by May. Certainly not panicking 4/10 concerned.

CinemaGuy45

Deleted User wrote: »

And that they couldn't get to a hospital even if they wanted to....

It wasn't drastically reduced, the poster said that people in Wuhan haven't left their house in a month.

What made you pick the little picture below you're username just asking?:D

silverharp

silverharp wrote: »

Finished “over buying” at the weekend so could stay away from the shops for a month if need be, and simultaneously booked our summer flights for end of July. After that whatever will happen will happen. Hopefully this will be rear view by May. Certainly not panicking 4/10 concerned.

Ah 4/10. You've bought in a few extras just in case and your new mantra has become "better safe than sorry!"

The scale is infallible

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Yeah, I know how you think..













I know EXACTLY what you think, its just the flu, bro
.. and you only worry if younger people are affected, older people? Doesnt worry you so much..


Do me a favour and add me to your ignore list please?
Your good opinion isn't one I care about...

What are you talking about? I have always said people with co-morbidities should take more precautions as they are higher risk. I am in a higher risk category myself as I am frontline HSE staff so I've a lot of skin in this game. I've a background in infectious diseases so I am well aware of the risks of the virus. I'm just saying that some people seem more interested in exaggerating than telling the truth.

CinemaGuy45

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

What made you pick the little picture below you're username just asking?:D

God. Can't remember. I was only a wee gossum back then.

silverharp

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah 4/10. You've bought in a few extras just in case and your new mantra has become "better safe than sorry!"

The scale is infallible

Its all about the illusion of control :pac:

ardinn

Deleted User wrote: »

That nobody has left their house for a month in Wuhan. That China is deliberately hiding the truth death figures. That the chinese have 20 (or whatever) amount of crematoriums running 24/7. It's all bollocks designed to titillate small minded people.

To be fair

People (suspected infected) have been welded into their homes - its unverified, but way to many videos of it happening for it to not be true - of all the things unverified - thats the one I believe.

The chinese were counting pneumonia deaths in most cases early on, they were only counting cases of Confirmed, live, patients and at that would still list the clinical cause of death as pneumonia or organ failure. They dont confirm the dead, of which there are 100s or 1000s still in their homes. They have and still are lying about the severity.

Wuhan has 2 crematoriums - they brought in up to 10 more mobile incinerators to deal with backlog about 3 weeks ago, who knows how many since - so your wrong, that info is widely available if you look for it. Actually all the above is.

Doctor Jimbob

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Yeah, I know how you think..










I know EXACTLY what you think, its just the flu, bro
.. and you only worry if younger people are affected, older people? Doesnt worry you so much..


Do me a favour and add me to your ignore list please?
Your good opinion isn't one I care about...

I've asked this before but what's with the hostility being displayed to anyone making comparisons to flu? I understand it's a different virus but in terms of transmission methods, symptoms, and mortality, the flu seems like a reasonable enough comparison at the moment.

CinemaGuy45

Deleted User wrote: »

God. Can't remember. I was only a wee gossum back then.

Joking aside it's not the end of the world but it is a bit more serious than the flu.
A few extra bags of rice and pasta enough bog roll sure you will use it either way no harm done.

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

It wasn't drastically reduced

I would definitely say it was
You don't think suspending all public transport, including buses, railways, flights, and ferry services, shutting major highways, non-essential companies including manufacturing plants, and schools was drastic?

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote:

The majority of people seeming to be recovering quite well from the infection. It seems to me that in a normal person, this strain is flu is less severe than the seasonal.flu.

That explains why countries around the world are locking down entire cities compromising their own economy, just a flue ..only less severe

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That explains why countries around the world are locking down entire cities compromising their own economy, just a flue ..only less severe

Ah sure now they don't know how serious the deaths are until they examine all the bodies.

Mic 1972

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Ah sure now they don't know how serious the deaths are until they examine all the bodies.

we have to wait until 8 billions people are tested before the data can be considered reliable

ceadaoin.

tara73 wrote: »

do you think you are funny and hilarious or have attention issues spreading your BS in this situation or why are you doing it?

really annoying, this is the third or so post of you with such nonsense and no back up. why are the mods not reacting to this and nobody else is calling this guy out on this??

No different than people posting youtube "facts" such as how the virus has mutated in iran and the death rate is now 20% and completely unverified videos from Twitter, some of which are obviously fake or completely unrelated to this virus. Hardly anyone is questioning those. I think perhaps that's the point the poster is trying to make.

froog

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I've asked this before but what's with the hostility being displayed to anyone making comparisons to flu? I understand it's a different virus but in terms of transmission methods, symptoms, and mortality, the flu seems like a reasonable enough comparison at the moment.

the mortality is not the same at all, "regular" seasonal flu strains have mortality rates around 0.05-0.1 % versus 2% (estimated) of COVID-19. that's a pretty huge difference.

Mic 1972

froog wrote: »

the mortality is not the same at all, "regular" seasonal flu strains have mortality rates around 0.05-0.1 % versus 2% (estimated) of COVID-19. that's a pretty huge difference.

we seriously need to stop throwing around that figure, it's non sense

Hector Savage

Roger roger roger Defcon II to Defcon IV

THE CHICKEN IS IN THE POT!!!

THE CHICKEN IS IN THE POT!!!!

froog

Mic 1972 wrote: »

we seriously need to stop throwing around that figure, it's non sense

it's the best estimate the experts have come up with based on available data. it would be far more dangerous to pretend it has a similar mortality rate to seasonal flu - i.e. do nothing to control its spread.

Cody montana

Would you people please stop going on about the mortality rate!

tara73

I wonder nobody mentions goggles here, it's all about masks or hand sanitizer. if we're in a state to need masks everybody going outside would also need protection for the eyes...
***See run on goggles now***:D

Ficheall

Cody montana wrote: »

Would you people please stop going on about the mortality rate!

Exactly! It's only one of the most important things about the virus, aside from its spreadability.

ceadaoin.

froog wrote: »

the mortality is not the same at all, "regular" seasonal flu strains have mortality rates around 0.05-0.1 % versus 2% (estimated) of COVID-19. that's a pretty huge difference.

froog wrote: »

it's the best estimate the experts have come up with based on available data. it would be far more dangerous to pretend it has a similar mortality rate to seasonal flu - i.e. do nothing to control its spread.

The WHO said today that the mortality rate outside of China is less than 1%. Its a few pages back, cant remember the exact number.

froog

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The WHO said today that the mortality rate outside of China is less than 1%. Its a few pages back, cant remember the exact number.

yes i read that earlier too. let's hope it that's low.

Hector Savage

I will be posting from my island of the northern coast of Iceland later ....

No one is there ... just me.

I have a "Fishing for dummies" manual.
I think a good 2 year spell out here should see this through.

Cody montana

Ficheall wrote: »

Exactly! It's only one of the most important things about the virus, aside from its spreadability.

How many different figures have been quoted at this stage?

Doctor Jimbob

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The WHO said today that the mortality rate outside of China is less than 1%. Its a few pages back, cant remember the exact number.

Please don't use unreliable sources like the WHO. We can't be sure of the numbers until they've been verified by a legit source like that lad on youtube whose mate in Iran said it's bad.

Mic 1972

froog wrote: »

it's the best estimate the experts have come up with based on available data. it would be far more dangerous to pretend it has a similar mortality rate to seasonal flu - i.e. do nothing to control its spread.

It is not the best estimate, and it's not even up to date
The best estimate will only look at closed cases (death or recovery) and the outcome to this calculation is a different figure

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That explains why countries around the world are locking down entire cities compromising their own economy, just a flue ..only less severe

Hmmm. That was based on information at the time. I still reckon that it's unlikely for fatalities to be above 1%. What would you reckon deaths from the flu would be if there was no flu vaccine?

Mic 1972

Cody montana wrote: »

How many different figures have been quoted at this stage?

At the moment 2 methods have been used. They both are based solely on actual data. There is no unreported cases included in the stats below

Flawed method
Deaths / Total cases = 3% (this is trending up)

Accurate method
Deaths / Closed cases = 9% (this is trending down)

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

Hmmm. That was based on information at the time. I still reckon that it's unlikely for fatalities to be above 1%.

at what time? the data is released daily
Italy is implementing these measures today as we speak
...bit I love how you pull that 1% out of a hat

BloodBath

ardinn wrote: »

To be fair

People (suspected infected) have been welded into their homes - its unverified, but way to many videos of it happening for it to not be true - of all the things unverified - thats the one I believe.

The chinese were counting pneumonia deaths in most cases early on, they were only counting cases of Confirmed, live, patients and at that would still list the clinical cause of death as pneumonia or organ failure. They dont confirm the dead, of which there are 100s or 1000s still in their homes. They have and still are lying about the severity.

Wuhan has 2 crematoriums - they brought in up to 10 more mobile incinerators to deal with backlog about 3 weeks ago, who knows how many since - so your wrong, that info is widely available if you look for it. Actually all the above is.

That's a discussion for the conspiracy theory forum in fairness.

It has no place here. This thread get's worse by the day.

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

At the moment 2 methods have been used. They both are based solely on actual data. There is no unreported cases included in the stats below

Flawed method
Deaths / Total cases = 3% (this is trending up)

Accurate method
Deaths / Closed cases = 9% (this is trending down)

It's not bloody accurate. How many times does it need to be pointed out to you.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

at what time? the data is released daily
Italy is implementing these measures today as we speak
...bit I love how you pull that 1% out of a hat

It's on up-to-date. It's actually expected to be below 0.8%

Here you go, mate.

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19

DrumSteve

Deleted User wrote: »

It's on up-to-date. It's actually expected to be below 0.8%

Is that minus Hubei in China

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

at what time? the data is released daily
Italy is implementing these measures today as we speak
...bit I love how you pull that 1% out of a hat

I see the mods point a back and forward about stats turns off readers.

I think you're right on the money by the way but people will believe what they want regardless.

BloodBath

froog wrote: »

the mortality is not the same at all, "regular" seasonal flu strains have mortality rates around 0.05-0.1 % versus 2% (estimated) of COVID-19. that's a pretty huge difference.

The mortality rate for the flu takes into account an estimate for unconfirmed infections. Covid does not. This number far exceeds confirmed infections.

How many times does this need to be pointed out.

Doctor Jimbob

BloodBath wrote: »

The mortality rate for the flu takes into account an estimate for unconfirmed infections. Covid does not. This number far exceeds confirmed infections. How many times does this need to be pointed out.

Careful, you'll have people on your case for using the f word in here.

pc7

Strawberry Milkshake your post for the new thread was brill, I’m covered in tea from laughing

I’m 4/10 on the poll, feel myself, husband and smallies are well set if we need to quarantine, good immune systems due to hell of first years of crèche, good diet and try to be healthy (good hygiene practices too).
But 8/10 thinking of my parents and grandparents, don’t think any of them would make it due to other health issues and age of grand parents.

CinemaGuy45

When does the new thread start at 800 pages or 10,000 or is 800 pages = 10,000 posts?

Call Me Jimmy

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Please don't use unreliable sources like the WHO. We can't be sure of the numbers until they've been verified by a legit source like that lad on youtube whose mate in Iran said it's bad.

I thought you were saying it's too early to draw conclusions from the data. Why when the WHO says x / y = z do you think is more 'legit' or representative?
Did they do a complicated model or did they divide the confirmed cases by the deaths? So is the data now accurate?

And do ye need someone on twitter to tell you that countries and cities have been shutting down in a way never before seen in history?

DrumSteve

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

When does the new thread start at 800 pages or 10,000 or is 800 pages = 10,000 posts?

Boards cant cope with any more posts than that in 1 thread.

DrumSteve

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I thought you were saying it's too early to draw conclusions from the data. Why when the WHO says x / y = z do you think it imply that is more 'legit', representative?
Did they do a complicated model or did they divide the confirmed cases by the deaths?

And do ye need someone on twitter to tell you that countries and cities have been shutting down in a way never before seen in history?

I think another reason for this massive lock down is that once this thing gets properly loose... The only thing that will stop it is the weather.

LadyMayBelle

Long time lurker and have been steadily popping a few bits into the trolley for the past few weeks. Work frontline/face to face with general public. Call today from parent I have never met telling me they are too ill with 'something like a very bad chest infection' to make an appointment with me and their child tomorrow. Never been so unwell they said.. My pulse starting racing... would love to have asked had they been away recently! Not sure whether it's this thread or what 🙈 anyways am being extra vigilant in work with handwashing but think I'm getting labelled as a fruit loop.

darced

I am meant to be travelling to Rome tomorrow for a week, what should I do? Any advice appreciated.