new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

thecretinhop

imo China CcP are spoofers. They lie cover up,jail journalists, hide.. untill the virus showed up in the west we would not know.
china is a totalitarian dictatorship, de poor ould muslims are being educated yeah lol.
this means its top down, the lads in wuchan will lie falsify figures to save their neck/face, when the sht hits fan central gov throws them under bus.
at best atm the gov is utterly incompetent, at worse know how bad it is covering it up...
finally, China might want to keep figures down to keep lid on panic, yet west has no clue of exact demographic figures...
for example: 8000 cases 1000 very serious ill (start praying)
but if hundreds of thousands infected much much less.
i would not trust these guys with anything, they are thr same type dna that let lethal radiation fall over Europe for days....

whatever99

wylo wrote: »

So its "an estimate" by an individual, not estimates, and hes not even estimating, hes hypothesizing, and finally, it was 20K infections not deaths.

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

wakka12

The most cases outside China occurred today. With 26 since this morning, about 20% of the total cases so far

wakka12

whatever99 wrote: »

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

2 million infections would just not happen in Ireland with such a low population density. I'd imagine 80-90% of infections would be in Dublin Cork and Limerick

Swine flu infected 20% of the worlds population. With a similar infectiousness this will probably be similar, in Ireland with good health care and low population density it will probably infect considerably less than 20% of the population and the death rate will probably be quite a bit lower than in China too because of the hospital care and also the good air quality. Maybe 10% of pop infected, 1% death rate..? = around 4k-5k fatalities

saabsaab

wakka12 wrote: »

2 million infections would just not happen in Ireland with such a low population density. I'd imagine 80-90% of infections would be in Dublin Cork and Limerick

Yes mainly the cities. I don't see panic being caused by the statements made. No need if we act in time.

thecretinhop

saabsaab wrote: »

Yes mainly the cities. I don't see panic being caused by the statements made. No need if we act in time.

that's a big IF

beejee

So when is that great wall going to be finished?

How many new diseases need to emerge out of the same country before you recognise it's a knacker hole?

Duke of Url

whatever99 wrote: »

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

You mean 1,000,000 infected

saabsaab

thecretinhop wrote: »

that's a big IF

Sadly true!

PhantomHat

It will be quite some time before we know the full extent of the outbreak in China. This is very much due to their opaque communist regime. It's a very proud nation and this has up to recently very much limited their reaction and disclosure.
Also I'm not sure how we can contain this considering it has a possible 14 day infective incubation period. It is going to be extremely difficult to detect in the early stages of infection without direct medical testing.
Time will tell. Unfortunately it seems we don't have a whole lot of it in light of the diseases exponential infection rates.

fritzelly

whatever99 wrote: »

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

Theres 10 million people in ireland? :cool:

wakka12

1220 new cases confirmed in Wuhan between 00:00 and 24:00 30/1. http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/tzgg/202001/t20200131_2016681.shtml
Approaching 10,000 mark worldwide now

whatever99

Duke of Url wrote: »

You mean 1,000,000 infected

He definitely said 20% of the population infected anyway, with 2% of the infected dying, resulting in 20,000. Whether those figures are right or wrong, that’s what he said. I heard him on the radio a few hours ago. I just looked up the population, says it’s 4M.
Either way....if/when it comes to Ireland, and if it’s in any way bad or spreading quickly, I would have very little faith in the ability of the HSE to be able to deal with it effectively!

AngryHippie

I'm no epidemiologist, but I know scare tactics when I see them.

That said, I'm off kung po chicken for a few weeks at least

Seriously though, banging on about 2m infected in Ireland and 20k deaths is pretty damned irresponsible for a health professional to throw into the public domain.

perrito caliente

This is basically the flu right?

4068ac1elhodqr

perrito caliente wrote: »

This is basically the flu right?

yes, but no.

wakka12

perrito caliente wrote: »

This is basically the flu right?

No, considerably higher morbidity and mortality rates and also more infectious. Also no vaccine and can be spread during incubation phase. Its also not an influenza.

saabsaab

perrito caliente wrote: »

This is basically the flu right?

No. A Corona Novovirus.

mad m

wakka12 wrote: »

Approaching 10,000 mark worldwide now

I’d say multiply that by 10

4068ac1elhodqr

It's also subject to possible mutation, being a random 'novel' thingymajig.

The whitecoats say they're working on a vax, and it'll be ready soon (weeks or month or two).
However... the final release human trials certificaiton part wouldn't be an overnight thing, rather 3/6/12mths.

Of course, maybe Gates & Co will let people get a jab if they 'sign an aul wavier' (against medical negligence whotnots).

wakka12

42 more people die in Wuhan
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Over 200 people in Wuhan have died, with 804 serious, 290 critical

cloudatlas

PhantomHat wrote: »

It will be quite some time before we know the full extent of the outbreak in China. This is very much due to their opaque communist regime. It's a very proud nation and this has up to recently very much limited their reaction and disclosure.
Also I'm not sure how we can contain this considering it has a possible 14 day infective incubation period. It is going to be extremely difficult to detect in the early stages of infection without direct medical testing.
Time will tell. Unfortunately it seems we don't have a whole lot of it in light of the diseases exponential infection rates.

They are overstretched and don’t have enough test kits so of course we don’t know the true figures. Jeez what to people expect the WHO to say either of course they have to be optimistic now and reflect after in the mistakes.

VinLieger

mad m wrote: »

I’d say multiply that by 10

Based on what? Your random uneducated scaremongering?

sondagefaux

Time to start re-reading The Stand by Stephen King...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Stand

beejee

This thing is not going to be that bad. A few thousand dead is a good bet.

But as much as we pride ourselves on bandaging these things, essentially mother nature is working much harder to thwart our efforts.

A serious disease is going to emerge that will put these things in perspective, the money is on china/india/South American jungle destruction areas.

bb12

beejee wrote: »

This thing is not going to be that bad. A few thousand dead is a good bet.

But as much as we pride ourselves on bandaging these things, essentially mother nature is working much harder to thwart our efforts.

A serious disease is going to emerge that will put these things in perspective, the money is on china/india/South American jungle destruction areas.

or microbes from melting glaciers

wakka12

beejee wrote: »

This thing is not going to be that bad. A few thousand dead is a good bet.

But as much as we pride ourselves on bandaging these things, essentially mother nature is working much harder to thwart our efforts.

A serious disease is going to emerge that will put these things in perspective, the money is on china/india/South American jungle destruction areas.

So you know more than WHO...they declared it an international emergency today precisely because of the potential damage it could do in countries without good health infrastructure.There is no betting because so much is unknown about the virus.

4068ac1elhodqr

beejee wrote: »

This thing is not going to be that bad. A few thousand dead is a good bet.

Not a good bet. At the very, very (very) minimum 10's of thousands.

creditcarder

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://youtu.be/rwXPeIwV_q4

live chat at 11pm from adv. like them or not they have some salient views having lived in china and married to native chinese women

Ugh, going to watch it now. Great tbh

frillyleaf

saabsaab wrote: »

Estimates high or low the sensible thing to do is stop flights from affected areas now. It won't affect our economy as much as a large scale outbreak here might. Acting now may slow its progress any amount of reaction if/when it comes here may not be enough.

I think this should have happened days ago.

4068ac1elhodqr

bb12 wrote: »

or microbes from melting glaciers

Not for a good while though. Similararly 'far out' one of the redtops mentioned the solar minimum may reduce the magnetic shield and allow interstellar bacteria to enter the planet.
Then there's the risk of supervolcanoes, and big Kim missing his takeaway and going mad, and so on...

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

beejee

bb12 wrote: »

or microbes from melting glaciers

That's an interesting outside bet.

However it is far more likely to be in areas of environmental/human/animal intensive crossover.

For nature, this is the ultimate breeding ground.

More interesting side effects will be the likes of "globalisation". You'll hear the usual muppets praise free movement of business and people and less and less borders and more intermingling in general. It's fair to say that a serious novel disease would be a bullet in the head for all that, stopped dead before it barely started.

If nature was a stereotypical villain it would be cackling right now.

Fr_Dougal

It’s tracking for 15k infections by this time tomorrow.

beejee

wakka12 wrote: »

So you know more than WHO...they declared it an international emergency today precisely because of the potential damage it could do in countries without good health infrastructure.There is no betting because so much is unknown about the virus.

Let me tell you this, there are people who know more than WHO, people they go to. They're really just an administrative body than anything else now.

This is not a major disease in the making, in the thousands of death is a good bet.

frillyleaf

AngryHippie wrote: »

I'm no epidemiologist, but I know scare tactics when I see them.

That said, I'm off kung po chicken for a few weeks at least

Seriously though, banging on about 2m infected in Ireland and 20k deaths is pretty damned irresponsible for a health professional to throw into the public domain.

That’s not what he said. He said 20k could be infected.... with 25% needing oxygen and hospital treatment if needed.

4068ac1elhodqr

beejee wrote: »

This is not a major disease in the making, in the thousands of death is a good bet.

Nope.

beejee

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Nope.

This is one of those moments that you'd love to reveal all. But you believe what you like.

Call Me Jimmy

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I meant barricaded from the outside, as in people outside blocking suspected people in (while the people being locked in scream). You and your friends aren't aware of this?

Nope. I have a group chat with all my students (360 students from all over China) on qq, and none have mentioned such a thing. They've talked about plenty of other retarded behavior going on though.

How many videos have your friends in china even seen that are negative? Even the construction workers physically fighting at the new hospital?

Of course there are many rumours and some amount of fake videos, but only so many different sources including video evidence can be blindly batted away.

Why? faking videos & photos is common on the Chinese social media sites. Even before the virus, there were heaps of vids which were altered to present a certain agenda or mime. Wechat at the moment is particularly toxic with loads of fake news being passed around, with people later saying "got you" when other people believe it.

You see, China is a reasonably orderly society (except online). There are those who behave outside the social norms, but they do so because normally government and social attention tolerates it. Right now, the police and the government are cracking down on anti-social/anti-community behavior in an attempt to prevent panic. So, no, while i do think there will be some cases of negative reactions, for the most part, Chinese people will calmly allow themselves to be cordoned away. Except for the rich, who will scream and demand extra benefits only to be battered by some weary police officer.

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Btw I'm not saying there is widespread chaos, I've lots of evidence of widespread calm even in Wuhan the epicenter, just pointing out that there are cracks in that thin veneer and they are relevant.

You've lots of internet articles, videos, and images. You're not there. So, no real evidence. I'm not there either, but I suspect I'd hear of anything nasty going on. Not in Wuhan, since I only know a few Chinese people there, but in the rest of the country? Sure.

This isn't an attempt to defend the Chinese Government. This is an attempt to reduce some of the scaremongering and other crap that seems to have infested the internet about the virus and the situation in China. Frankly, I'm rather disgusted at the attitude of the Internet. (not at you, Call Me Jimmy) It really shows just how negative and toxic the internet has become.

creditcarder wrote: »

You know, as a sidenote, I was always curious why so many foreigners date women kind of affilliated with the government :P Just kind of a funny thing I noticed, and I am not saying that it is spying (probably) or anything like that.

Who is spying on whom? (Although on a serious note, that is something that we are very careful about considering Beijings' fairly recent push on propaganda about foreign spies bribing Chinese officials)

As for why? I met her first when she was wearing a full tactical outfit. She looked so cute, and she spoke decent English. Her job was secondary to the fact that she's absolutely gorgeous, in her early 30s and has little interest in getting married.

I tend to date Asian women, in general, finding them to be more attractive than most western women in Asia (since that's where I spend most of my time).

gozunda

beejee wrote: »

This thing is not going to be that bad. A few thousand dead is a good bet. But as much as we pride ourselves on bandaging these things, essentially mother nature is working much harder to thwart our efforts. A serious disease is going to emerge that will put these things in perspective, the money is on china/india/South American jungle destruction areas.

It's not the"few thousand dead" that would be the major issue - rather the paralysing of the existing healthcare system here and elsewhere with services being seriously overrun simply treating those infected. Both Irish and UK hospitals are already heavily over subscribed due to bed and staff shortages.

The city of Wuhan is under effective lockdown with a total transport ban - will that be implemented elsewhere I wonder?

beejee

gozunda wrote: »

It's not the"few thousand dead" that would be the major issue - rather the paralysing of the existing healthcare system here and elsewhere with services being seriously overrun simply treating those infected. Both Irish and UK hospitals are already heavily over subscribed due to bed and staff shortages.

The city of Wuhan is under effective lockdown with a total transport ban - will that be implemented elsewhere I wonder?

Well that goes hand in hand. More death = more diseased = more fallout.

So regardless, if health systems are unable to cope with a small outbreak, all the better practice.

The interesting part of infrastructural challenge will be in poor countries with essentially none but ALSO major hubs of transport.

China, in other words

creditcarder

wakka12 wrote: »

The most cases outside China occurred today. With 26 since this morning, about 20% of the total cases so far

You're being a little bit alarmist tbh, but it is scary

creditcarder

PhantomHat wrote: »

It will be quite some time before we know the full extent of the outbreak in China. This is very much due to their opaque communist regime. It's a very proud nation and this has up to recently very much limited their reaction and disclosure.
Also I'm not sure how we can contain this considering it has a possible 14 day infective incubation period. It is going to be extremely difficult to detect in the early stages of infection without direct medical testing.
Time will tell. Unfortunately it seems we don't have a whole lot of it in light of the diseases exponential infection rates.

I dunno, I imagine the world would be gunning for China if they ****ed them over in this regards.

Blaze420

Blaze420 wrote: »

Nobody should be praising China because if they are doing anything, it’s suppressing the true figures of the infection rate. They are probably many times over the “official” figure they are telling the international community.

You're assuming that they actually know the real figures.... Local government has a long history of fudging reports/statistics to make their provinces/districts look good to Beijing. Nobody will step up to take responsibility. That's a core part of Chinese culture and it's heavily reinforced within the Party... and most Doctors will be Party members. It's difficult to get any decent jobs in China without being connected to the Party in some way.

It's the problem with "face". Beijing couldn't admit that they're missing figures even if they wanted to. They have to accept and use what they receive.

Snow Garden wrote: »

You may have a very old and invalid perception of China. Many in the west do.
It may have changed a lot since the you were last there.

I find that many people just assume that they know China without ever spending any time there. They watch western media, read some books written by western authors, and then they're all experts on the Chinese government or Chinese Culture. There's a big difference between what is real and what is reported/published when it comes to Chinese culture.

Would Beijing lie? Definitely. They don't believe they need to respect western nations because historically the west has gone back on many promises/agreements made to Asian countries. They've also never forgiven western nations for shaming their people over the last two hundred plus years. So... Beijing would definitely lie to the world, if they wanted to.

But honestly, I suspect they're simply mistaken. They're working with the system they have.. which is horribly corrupt and inefficient. There's also the reluctance by Chinese people to involve the police or government in their lives, so I suspect many Chinese people have avoided going to hospitals or doing anything to announce that they have the virus until it's rather late...

wakka12

creditcarder wrote: »

You're being a little bit alarmist tbh, but it is scary

How is stating a fact alarmist?

creditcarder

Deleted User wrote: »

Nope. I have a group chat with all my students (360 students from all over China) on qq, and none have mentioned such a thing. They've talked about plenty of other retarded behavior going on though.



Why? faking videos & photos is common on the Chinese social media sites. Even before the virus, there were heaps of vids which were altered to present a certain agenda or mime. Wechat at the moment is particularly toxic with loads of fake news being passed around, with people later saying "got you" when other people believe it.

You see, China is a reasonably orderly society (except online). There are those who behave outside the social norms, but they do so because normally government and social attention tolerates it. Right now, the police and the government are cracking down on anti-social/anti-community behavior in an attempt to prevent panic. So, no, while i do think there will be some cases of negative reactions, for the most part, Chinese people will calmly allow themselves to be cordoned away. Except for the rich, who will scream and demand extra benefits only to be battered by some weary police officer.



You've lots of internet articles, videos, and images. You're not there. So, no real evidence. I'm not there either, but I suspect I'd hear of anything nasty going on. Not in Wuhan, since I only know a few Chinese people there, but in the rest of the country? Sure.

This isn't an attempt to defend the Chinese Government. This is an attempt to reduce some of the scaremongering and other crap that seems to have infested the internet about the virus and the situation in China. Frankly, I'm rather disgusted at the attitude of the Internet. (not at you, Call Me Jimmy) It really shows just how negative and toxic the internet has become.



Who is spying on whom? (Although on a serious note, that is something that we are very careful about considering Beijings' fairly recent push on propaganda about foreign spies bribing Chinese officials)

As for why? I met her first when she was wearing a full tactical outfit. She looked so cute, and she spoke decent English. Her job was secondary to the fact that she's absolutely gorgeous, in her early 30s and has little interest in getting married.

I tend to date Asian women, in general, finding them to be more attractive than most western women in Asia (since that's where I spend most of my time).

Hmmmm, I might still keep China open now.



Was getting second thoughts as this is freaky Not the disease, but being a foreigner would be a nervous situation just for the healthcare aspect

Tin Foil Hat

beejee wrote: »

Let me tell you this, there are people who know more than WHO, people they go to. They're really just an administrative body than anything else now.

This is not a major disease in the making, in the thousands of death is a good bet.

There's nearly 60 million people in Hubei, where this seems hopelessly out of control. We could see thousands of deaths in this province alone.
This virus might be out of control in all of China. 1.42 billion poeple.:eek:

Duke of Url

Germany has announced a fifth confirmed case.

The individual is an employee at the same firm as the other four infected individuals, in the southern state of Bavaria.

creditcarder

Duke of Url wrote: »

Germany has announced a fifth confirmed case.

The individual is an employee at the same firm as the other four infected individuals, in the southern state of Bavaria.

Were they in Wuhan? If not, that is a quick spread I must admit, but, knowing the germans, it wouldn't suprise me if they were self taking temperature for 14 days.

beejee

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

There's nearly 60 million people in Hubei, where this seems hopelessly out of control. We could see thousands of deaths in this province alone.
This virus might be out of control in all of China. 1.42 billion poeple.:eek:

My mates da's uncles fish has access to the global warning system. Fascinating, and (for a change) surprisingly efficient.

Some dudes goat got sick on a hill in weibumfumyung province? You'll see it pop up on the system within an hour.

So, predictions are not fact, this latest Chinese gift to the world could kill every single human on earth. It's just far more probable that it'll be a shed load of eejits sneezing and coughing for a few weeks and a tiny minority of them biting the dust.

Make your bets!

creditcarder

creditcarder wrote: »

Hmmmm, I might still keep China open now.



Was getting second thoughts as this is freaky Not the disease, but being a foreigner would be a nervous situation just for the healthcare aspect

Don't get me wrong. Even before this virus, I'd decided that I would be finished with China soon. (another year probably). I don't like the way nationalism has evolved, and the spread (and acceptance) of much anti-foreign propaganda. Where once Chinese people nodded in public, and dismissed in private, there's now a growing acceptance of the anti-foreign sentiment. Xi is also getting older, and he promised the return of Taiwan to the military. A peaceful result for that ended with HK, so it'll be an invasion. Regardless of the success of that venture, their perceptions towards foreigners will shift. You know yourself, that they see white skin, and initially think "American!".. so I wouldn't want to be there when it all kicked off.

Even without all that, the US has been surrounding China with military bases, and arming China's neighbors.... so even if China did nothing with Taiwan, something would eventually crop up. It's time to finish up. I've been there over a decade, and it's time to spend a few years in a different culture. Perhaps Japan, or South Korea for a spell.

I have a contract, so I'll be back in China once the Virus is settled, but I won't be staying long. (I've never broken a contract, and I've no intention of starting now)