new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Yurt2

10000maniacs wrote: »

How did the virus enter Italy? And how many on the airplane that brought in the carrier caught the virus too. Airplane air conditioning is a petri dish for such airborne viruses.

Idle speculation but there is a large community of Chinese immigrants in the textile industry in Prato (Tuscany) and around Milan, most of whom retain very strong business and familial links with the mother country.

Kermit.de.frog

BanditLuke wrote: »

Bingo and that's the issue we should all be concerned about. Our health service is a mess and we don't have the ability to do what China has done to save so many.

lol, what has China done?

Are we talking about the leaking fake propaganda hospitals or something else?

Being the eternal ghoul I am, I’ll be curious to know who our Patient 1 will be, where they will have come from, what hospital they will be in, what is their place of work (eg restaurant server), where they will have been during incubation, and the HSE and media response.

Duke of Url

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't automatically but I appreciate the risks people are taking in reporting anything from China. Putting the regime in a light they don't like is rolling the dice.

This is why we need to take notice.

Its deffo a massive risk posting from New York alright.

She also has an Agenda against China

Jennifer Zeng - best selling author of “Witnessing History: "One Chinese Woman’s Fight for Freedom"

Jennifer Zeng - main character of awards winning documentary "Free China: the courage to believe".

givyjoe

Candamir wrote: »

But does that worst case scenario take into account our couple of proper oxygen ventilators?

No it doesn't, it assumes a 2% death rate on 1000000 infections (20k), which won't be the case if we don't have enough respirators etc for critical patients. 20% of cases being critical means 200k will have been in critical condition, that's an enormous number. Hopefully that worst case scenario doesn't happen, but if does we have to hope those numbers are spread over as long a time period as possible. Thats why it's so important to do as much as we possibly can to slow down the spread.

Mic 1972

Italy is a touristic place
The initial 2 cases in January were Chinese tourists who had been everywhere in the north of Italy before being taken to hospital. Shortly after a couple fell ill in Taiwan who had been to Italy for 2 week also traveling several northern regions
Tourists go to restaurants and all sort of social gatherings

Kermit.de.frog

Duke of Url wrote: »

Its deffo a massive risk posting from New York alright.

She also has an Agenda against China

Jennifer Zeng, Former Chinese Communist Party Member, best selling author of “Witnessing History: One Chinese Woman’s Fight for Freedom

True but images and video come from contacts in China, people are rightly scared to post anything on social media from within the country which is going to be censored anyway. It's brave just getting video and pics out.

I'd rather relying on those accounts than the CCP.

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

Idle speculation but there is a large community of Chinese immigrants in the textile industry in Prato (Tuscany) and around Milan, most of whom retain very strong business and familial links with the mother country.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-21350013

givyjoe

givyjoe wrote: »

No it doesn't, it assumes a 2% death rate on 1000000 infections (20k), which won't be the case if we don't have enough respirators etc for critical patients. 20% of cases being critical means 200k will have been in critical condition, that's an enormous number. Hopefully that worst case scenario doesn't happen, but if does we have to hope those numbers are spread over as long a time period as possible. Thats why it's so important to do as much as we possibly can to slow down the spread.

Where is this arbitrary 20% coming from?

BanditLuke

Deleted User wrote: »

Lads, are you actually saying that China has a better healthcare system than Ireland???? I've heard it all now.:D

Ireland is 19th in the world. China is 144th according to WHO so simmer down.

No it's like you didn't read my post. China has the ability to build hospitals in days, they have robots bringing infected people food in those hospitals, they have the ability to make thousands of ventilators, the ability to lock down a city with a population twice the size of ours in hours. We have none of that.

BanditLuke

BanditLuke wrote: »

No it's like you didn't read my post. China has the ability to build hospitals in days, they have robots bringing infected people food in those hospitals, they have the ability to make thousands of ventilators, the ability to lock down a city with a population twice the size of ours in hours. We have none of that.

You said the health service was a mess. I corrected you. I would rather have a functioning healthcare system than to have to build things off the cuff. Robots bringing food is a bit of a waste of time if proper sterilisation techniques are followed.

Duke of Url

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

True but images and video come from contacts in China, people are rightly scared to post anything on social media from within the country which is going to be censored anyway. It's brave just getting video and pics out.

I'd rather relying on those accounts than the CCP.

Seem very narrow minded but each to themselves I suppose.

BanditLuke

Deleted User wrote: »

You said the health service was a mess. I corrected you. I would rather have a functioning healthcare system than to have to build things off the cuff. Robots bringing food is a bit of a waste of time if proper sterilisation techniques are followed.

You think our health service isn't a mess. Ah bless.

givyjoe

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where is this arbitrary 20% coming from?

Arbitrary? Are you having a laugh? It's been stated multiple times drawing from various sources that the 80% of cases are mild.

Again, as for arbitrary, how about you practice what you preach and provide with a source that breaks down exactly how they've calculated the worst scenario. Seems an awful lot like they've literally just taken the widely stated mortality rate of 2% and applied it to a guesstimate of 1million infections.

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

Where is this arbitrary 20% coming from?

from Worldometer


Active Cases = 51,828
Critical = 11,567 (22%)

Mic 1972

givyjoe wrote: »

Arbitrary? Are you having a laugh? It's been stated multiple times drawing from various sources that the 80% of cases are mild.

Again, as for arbitrary, how about you practice what you preach and provide with a source that breaks down exactly how they've calculated the worst scenario. Seems an awful lot like they've literally just taken the widely stated mortality rate of 2% and applied it to a guesstimate of 1million infections.

That widely stated 2% is an inaccurate figure, there is no official data to support it. The closest you can get to that number is 3% only if you include all reported cases that still have no outcome

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

from Worldometer


Active Cases = 51,828
Critical = 11,567 (22%)

Here we go again.........


Just kidding;)

BanditLuke

BanditLuke wrote: »

You think our health service isn't a mess. Ah bless.

Luke. Luke. Luke. Ye wee petal. Love putting words in other people's mouth because you were caught wrong. Whilst our health service could be better (never denied that), it's still a lot better than an authoritarian country who's healthcare is worse than Uzbekistan.

Anyway, you continue to post lies and misrepresentations like a good little boy.

Anyone living in Australia? You made the list...

“Today, we added Australia and Italy to the list of countries from which returning travelers will be required to enter quarantine,” the prime minister said. “As necessary, we will add other countries to the list.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Netanyahu-International-coronavirus-quarantine-list-may-grow-618492

Ulysses Gaze

Duke of Url wrote: »

Seem very narrow minded but each to themselves I suppose.

Narrow-minded to not believe 100% what a Totalitarian Communist Regime is saying?

Okay then...

givyjoe

givyjoe wrote: »

Arbitrary? Are you having a laugh? It's been stated multiple times drawing from various sources that the 80% of cases are mild.

Again, as for arbitrary, how about you practice what you preach and provide with a source that breaks down exactly how they've calculated the worst scenario. Seems an awful lot like they've literally just taken the widely stated mortality rate of 2% and applied it to a guesstimate of 1million infections.

But how many people are asymptomatic Joe? I'll put my boards membership that the mortality rate will be less than 2% when all this is done. I don't believe that 20% of all cases of coronavirus in the world need ICU intervention.

BanditLuke

Deleted User wrote: »

Luke. Luke. Luke. Ye wee petal. Love putting words in other people's mouth because you were caught wrong. Whilst our health service could be better (never denied that), it's still a lot better than an authoritarian country who's healthcare is worse than Uzbekistan.

Anyway, you continue to post lies and misrepresentations like a good little boy.

You where caught out saying our health service isn't a mess. It is and you know it.

Please stop saying i am posting up lies as that in inaccurate. Iv'e been consistent from day one on this thread that my biggest concern is that our health service will collapse under the pressure of this virus as we have very little capacity built in for something of this scale. I say again we haven't the ability to do what China has done and that is obvious.

Duke of Url

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Narrow-minded to not believe 100% what a Totalitarian Communist Regime is saying?

Okay then...

lol

How did you get that from my post.

If you believed 100% what a Totalitarian Communist Regime is saying that would also be Narrow minded.

givyjoe

Deleted User wrote: »

But how many people are asymptomatic Joe? I'll put my boards membership that the mortality rate will be less than 2% when all this is done. I don't believe that 20% of all cases of coronavirus in the world need ICU intervention.

Who knows, how many people with flu are?

How many people with flu dont seek medical attention. The same hidden iceberg of patients applies to other viruses where people don't make it into the system. If this was just another strain of flu virus, with similar morbidity rates, why on earth would there be such draconian measures in place to stop it's spread? Measures which we have literally never seen before.

Kermit.de.frog

Duke of Url wrote: »

Seem very narrow minded but each to themselves I suppose.

If you want to believe the politburo in Beijing each to themselves I suppose.

BanditLuke

Stock markets taking a hammering around the globe on the back of this. Couldn't give a hoot myself but it's obvious they are spooked by this and the effects on the world economy.

Duke of Url

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want to believe the politburo in Beijing each to themselves I suppose.

Its weird that your logic is to pick sides.

Im not picking any.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

But how many people are asymptomatic Joe? I'll put my boards membership that the mortality rate will be less than 2% when all this is done. I don't believe that 20% of all cases of coronavirus in the world need ICU intervention.

If they're asymptomatic they'll probably never get diagnosed, and never be included in the mortality rate in the first place.

DrumSteve

givyjoe wrote: »

Who knows, how many people with flu are?

How many people with flu dont seek medical attention. The same hidden iceberg of patients applies to other viruses where people don't make it into the system. If this was just another strain of flu virus, with similar morbidity rates, why on earth would there be such draconian measures in place to stop it's spread? Measures which we have literally never seen before.

I'm presuming cos there is a vaccine for the flu and not for this; so if the Flu gets out of hand everyone gets a vaccine.

If this gets out of hand, they have to lock everything down til it's figured out.

odyssey06

givyjoe wrote: »

Who knows, how many people with flu are?
How many people with flu dont seek medical attention. The same hidden iceberg of patients applies to other viruses where people don't make it into the system. If this was just another strain of flu virus, with similar morbidity rates, why on earth would there be such draconian measures in place to stop it's spread? Measures which we have literally never seen before.

Let's take one example.
Russia closed its land border with China.
A decision to ban mass Chinese tour groups — the biggest driver of growth for Russia’s tourist industry since 2015 — was also taken.
https://www.ft.com/content/5b61d6e4-4367-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c

Russia is dependent on trade with China since the sanctions applied by the West due to Ukraine. Russia wants friendly trade relations with China.

Russia didn't do all this because it was spooked by the declared death rate in Hubei.